Agni V launch alters dynamics of the region The Statesman 10 Jan 17
End December saw India do a successful launch of the nuclear capable Agni V missile, with an expected range of over five thousand kilometres. The missile achieved its objective and landed off the Australian waters. The present launch was from a canister, rather than a mobile launcher, for which it is being designed, implying more test launches are due, prior to its final induction into service. Almost simultaneous was the final test launch of the four thousand kilometre range Agni IV missile. This is set for induction into service. These launches have already become a sore issue in the immediate neighbourhood.
Adverse comments on the launch have flowed from China and Pakistan, which is but natural. Though the missile can reach as far as central Europe, there has been no criticism from western nations. The test has put India on a platform which few nations have been able to achieve and that too at a marginal cost. It has altered the dynamics of the region and has immense strategic implications, mainly in the Asian region. The DRDO should be complimented for having achieved this milestone.
China, other than claiming that such a test has impacted security of the region, also pulled out a leaf from an almost defunct UN resolution on limitation of missile ranges, which nations could develop. It went further and threatened that if the world community does not restrict India’s growing missile program, it would not sit idle, but support Pakistan to obtain parity. The mention of supporting Pakistan was indication enough of Chinese proximity and desperate desire to counter India’s growing military power, by bolstering Pakistan, thus compelling India to always consider a two-front war as a reality. The Chinese criticism was a result of losing an advantage which it always held over India.
For decades, China refused to resolve the border dispute, knowing it held all the aces. The offensive strike corps is still years away from being effective and even once raised would only threaten limited parts of Tibet. After all Indian economy is still one fifth of China and the defence budget is way below. India presently only has the potential to defend its borders against Chinese transgressions. Further, till the construction of strategic border roads, which are woefully behind schedule, there would always be avenues open for the Chinese to transgress. The Indian air force does possess a technical advantage over the Chinese in terms of employability due to terrain configuration, though not in numbers. To further enhance its capability, the air force has planned to induct the first Rafale squadron in the North East, as also is in the process of deploying a Hercules C 130 squadron there. The Indian Navy, presently holds an edge, however, may not for long, as China is rapidly developing its naval power. Yet confrontations with the Chinese would remain localized and be land based.
China possessed nuclear capability to target most Indian cities, while India in retaliation could not target the Chinese mainland. Hence, it was disadvantaged. The development of the Agni IV and V has upset this critical balance. All major cities of China are now within Indian missile range, eliminating Chinese superiority. Further, Agni V would be launcher based, implying it can be moved, deployed and then employed, maintaining surprise and avoiding detection. Chinese nuclear missiles, on the other hand, are silo based, hence immobile and can be engaged, prior to launch. The presence of a Chinese nuclear submarine in Karachi port last week, was an indicator of Chinese attempts to display its proximity to Pakistan and indicate opening of a new front in the Arabian sea against India. It would in time commence deployment of naval vessels in Gwadar. It has also leased the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka for ninety-nine years. Therefore, clearly India requires strategic deterrence.
India was quick to counter Chinese objections, stating that its strategic capabilities are not targeted against any specific nation. Both India and China have a ‘no first use’ declared nuclear policy, which implies that neither nation would be the first to launch nuclear weapons. Recent comments by the defence minister on the need to re-visit the nuclear doctrine and re-consider the ‘no first use’ policy would create a doubt in Chinese minds.
For Pakistan, it is simply a case of sour grapes. In strategic terms, this development means nothing to them. The complete country was already within India’s existing nuclear missile ranges. There is however a feeling of having fallen behind India in missile technology, which the nation is unwilling to accept. It would therefore seek equity with India, with Chinese assistance. Simultaneously, it would support Chinese claims and cry hoarse on this development impacting security and stability in the subcontinent. India, like always, would ignore Pak objections. Interestingly, no other nation in the subcontinent has commented on the Indian test.
The world order is changing. India’s proximity with the US and Japan would remain to counter Chinese hegemony. It was for this reason, that the Japanese press hailed India’s achievement. India always sought a closer interaction with China, especially since the present government came to power, however China openly indicated its preference by blocking India’s entry into the NSG and employing its veto in declaring Azar Masood as an international terrorist. It is unlikely to even accept India’s entry into the UN Security Council. Its proximity to Pakistan grows by the day, as the CPEC becomes a reality.
India already has the military capability to limit Chinese misadventures, but lacked nuclear deterrence. It is evident that irrespective of any military parity or near parity with China, the future would continue to have China and Pak colluding against India. Thus, to ensure security of the nation and ward away supposed Chinese threats, we must possess a viable strategic missile capability.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army