Both Pakistan and North Korea are rogue nations Daily O 10 May 17
Historically no nation can choose its neighbours. It is determined by geography. Geopolitics, on the other hand, determines relative importance of nations in the strategic sphere. No nation can prosper in isolation. It needs trade and development to prosper. For this, nations need to maintain cordial relations with neighbours. A nation at discord with all those in its proximity would only engulf its population in misery and poverty, irrespective of its military might. Germany in the second world war and North Korea today are prime examples. Hence nations need to evolve policies of maintaining peaceful relations in their neighbourhood.
Europe changed after two world wars. It learnt its lessons the hard way. Germany is and would never become a threat. The EU now revolves around German economy. Even nations belonging to the erstwhile Soviet Union have managed to re-discover themselves and their strategic space, despite pressures from Russia, Ukraine being a prime example. This lesson has reduced threats in most regions, however Pakistan still lives in a delusionary world, in the belief, that being a nuclear state it can control its own strategic sphere.
In recent days, it has enhanced border tensions with all its major neighbours, India, Afghanistan and Iran. It has had military confrontations with India and Afghanistan. It is heading towards one with Iran. While relations with India have been strained due to historical baggage, religion, ideological differences and failure in every war, relations with the others is only due to its own faulty approach and failed policies. The fact that it is attacked even by a less powerful neighbour, Afghanistan, should have sent a message to the powers that be in the country, that it needs to recalibrate its policies, however, it is unlikely to change.
Diplomacy, mainly concerning neighbouring countries, left in the hands of power seeking military generals, who believe in supporting terror organizations, can put any nation at risk. The political leadership, with more experience in handling international relations in Pakistan, is pushed to the background, either intentionally or by creating artificial obstacles in its path. The deep state, comprising the army and the ISI, appears to believe that, it alone, is the saviour of the nation. Thus, it has alienated almost all surrounding it, opening doors for its strategic encirclement by countries inimical to it.
India and Pakistan have been traditional enemies. Kashmir has been a flashpoint, with militants, trained and supported by Pakistan operating, along with financial support to the Hurriyat. The present Indian government has taken a strong stand, irrespective of domestic and international suggestions. It refuses to even contemplate talks with Pakistan. India anyway has limited choices. It refuses to talk to the deep state, while their polity has no control over Indo-Pak relations. Hence, status quo would remain. A lesson which Pakistan has failed to learn is that though India and China have a border dispute, it remains controlled and is being diplomatically addressed. The fact that there has been no firing for decades speaks volumes of political engagement between two strong and internationally competing adversaries.
Pakistan has always considered Afghanistan as its strategic backyard, hence seeks a favourable government. Its continued support to the Taliban has been with the hope that when talks do take place, it is likely to become a part of the government. The US has made its intentions clear. It seeks a longer engagement in the country and is unwilling to cooperate with Russia and China on talking to the Taliban. The US will have a face-off with Pakistan in some timeframe, once patience runs thin.
Pak knows what happens when terror groups turn inwards, it has enough experience with the Pakistan Taliban, hence cannot change its present policies in a hurry. Border skirmishes with Afghanistan and the refusal of President Ghani to visit Islamabad shows how their policy has failed. This destructive policy opens doors for Indian entry into the country, thus opening a new front for Pakistan to handle.
Iran and Pak did maintain cordial ties. It never had any border issues with Iran. The international border however, divides the Baluch community, which reside on either side. Iran blames Pakistan for supporting groups seeking to destabilize the Sistan- Baluchestan region of the country. Pak on the other hand blames Iran for interfering in Baluchistan and Southern Afghanistan.
Anti-Iran terror group, Jaish al Adl, based in Pak has regularly struck Iranian border guards. In 2014, after five of its border guards were kidnapped, Iran threatened to move in troops, but were dissuaded. The situation was resolved by a local cleric, four guards were returned, but one was killed. In end Oct 14, a Pakistan Frontier Corps soldier was killed by Iranian Border Guards, rekindling tensions. Recently ten Iranian border guards were killed in a terrorist raid from Pak side of the border. This time Iran has openly warned Pakistan on launching a surgical strike aka India. The diplomatic situation is also tense since the ex-army chief of Pakistan, Raheel Sharif, took over the Saudi led alliance. Iran and Saudi are natural enemies.
Pak had border disputes with both, India and Afghanistan, since its independence. In either case, its deep state prevented the political leadership from taking a lead to resolve issues, seeking to succeed by employing terror groups. The policy has only increased tensions, added to its own problems, as it is regularly targeted by remnants of the same groups, it created. The fact that most of the western world have begun ignoring its pleas and cries against India or Indian involvement in Afghanistan, indicates its own international standing.
There is no other nation in the world, in the state which Pakistan is, surrounded by three major neighbours, all of whom seek its downfall, with only China to support it. In fact, Pakistan and North Korea seem to be almost on the same rung of the ladder, both nuclear powers, surrounded by enemies, with only Chinese backing and support. It is thus a rogue nation, akin to North Korea, and necessitates similar international treatment.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army