Doklam standoff: It’s just not with India, China is rubbing everyone the wrong way Daily O 14 Jul 17
The Indo-China standoff is moving towards its second month, with both sides digging in and preparing for the long haul. The NSA is scheduled to visit China in the last week of the month for a BRICS meeting. It is to be seen if any solution would emerge during his visit. The present standoff is possibly the longest in the region till date, yet shows no signs of abating.
The rhetoric from the Chinese side seems to be blowing hot and cold at regular intervals, seeking to enhance pressure on India to back down. Diplomacy would be the ultimate answer and both sides would seek a face saving withdrawal, without altering the status quo.
There are reports about China downsizing its army to enhance levels of other forces. This is to support Chinese expansionism. China has begun moving troops to its new naval base of Djibouti, where it would soon deploy a part of its Indian Ocean fleet. This is China’s first overseas military base and a threat to the region. It is also likely to commence military deployment in Gwadar in Pakistan once the port nears completion. It has the port on lease for a forty-year period. Further, recent inputs about China paints a different picture about the country and its existing relations with the international community.
Presently China is on a crash course with the US, as it is being accused of not reigning in North Korea. The Chinese claim that it alone is not responsible for North Korea developing nuclear weapons, is cutting no ice. The bonhomie which was witnessed when the Chinese President visited the US seems to have evaporated into thin air. The US has regularly targeted China for a variety of reasons, including human trafficking, thus would seek to apply sanctions on it. To add fuel to fire, the US announced its decision to sell weapons to Taiwan, further infuriating China.
China has also threatened to go to war with the Philippines if it seeks to implement the arbitration judgement on the South China Sea (SCS), which was in its favour from the International Court of Arbitration. Vietnam has begun challenging Chinese hegemony by seeking Indian partnership in oil exploration in the disputed SCS. Chinese claims in the SCS has angered Japan, which has enhanced military cooperation with India. South Korea is also incensed with Chinese support to its northern neighbours. China’s insistence on its control over the SCS and its resources has most of its neighbours in anger. In fact, China appears to be creating more enemies than friends in recent times.
Its unfair loan policies, where it grants loans on high rate of interest and subsequently when nations fail to repay, seeks controlling rights over strategic interests has smaller nations worried. Sri Lanka and Myanmar have already faced Chinese pressures and claims. Others whom China approaches offering loans and assistance are wary and unsure. However, choices are limited, as India cannot match Chinese financial capabilities.
Its sole ally is Pakistan, as after all ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’ policy. Russia and China are presently cooperating, because the US has enhanced distance from both. Once the world order begins to change, Russia may move away, since in international relations, there are no permanent friends or enemies, just national interests and Russia’s interests lie with the west.
Its actions in the Doklam plateau was aimed at pressurizing Bhutan to switch sides from India to China. It felt the entire exercise would be a cake walk, as Bhutan would only protest, but not act. It would offer financial aid or other packages to assuage fears. The involvement of India in the process came as a jolt from the blue, hence their state controlled media reacted with vigour, even claiming India was creating conditions for a conflict. The mature handling by the Indian government, ignoring the rhetoric, while simultaneously continuing its defensive actions was the best method of conveying its displeasure without voicing it.
China is no longer a friend to any nation, its reliability as an ally reduces by the day. Nations which had come under forced Chinese influence at one time are moving away. Even North Korea, a known ally, is known to have refused Chinese overtures for dialogue on its nuclear issues. The present Chinese approach of bulldozing its way has left it with more enemies than friends, who are compelled to silence due to Chinese might. At the first opportunity, they would flex muscles.
Hence, India supporting Bhutan in countering Chinese bullying actions is justified, as strong nations must support their smaller and weaker friends, before they are sucked into the Chinese fold. Rhetoric may continue but neither nation seeks to up the ante. Diplomacy would work and peace restored, however in the meanwhile, India would have saved Bhutan from being sucked into the Chinese fold.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army