Can UN sanctions contain North Korea? Daily O 16 Aug 17
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has issued its latest sanctions against North Korea. It has compelled the nation to cut down its exports to two billion dollars a year from the current three. These have impacted export of coal, iron and iron ore, as also restricted the number of workers it can send abroad to work each year, which provide it with desperate foreign exchange. China, the only nation which still backs the country has supported the sanctions and even agreed to implement it. Trump in a tweet thanked Russia and China, which could have utilized their veto, but refrained from doing so.
The message goes out clear, North Korea developing nuclear weapons is unacceptable to the world. Even China, for once is frustrated with the regime on its behaviour. China has always feared an influx of refugees, if the situation in North Korea gets critical or war breaks out, hence supports the regime. North Korea obtained its nuclear technology from Pakistan and China. Further, Chinese support enabled it to develop its nuclear weapons and delivery means, unmindful of international criticism.
China has recently been attempting to get North Korea to curtail its nuclear testing, but to no avail. Its ambassador kept requesting for a meeting with Kim Jong Un, the North Korean supreme leader, but was snubbed, forcing China to change its stance. The UNSC is determined that this time they would strictly enforce sanctions and even monitor Chinese implementation of the same. Simultaneously China is worried that if the North Korean regime is replaced, then a unified Korea, allied to the US would be a thorn on its borders. However, a debate still rages if whether sanctions would ultimately restrict the North Koreans.
The North Korean regime is paranoid on its security and survivability. It has no concern for its people, who continue to starve, while its leaders live a lavish life. Military parades on special occasions are great shows of pomp, military power and splendour, while the population lacks even basic food and medical care. The brainwashing of its population ensures there is almost none who would oppose the regime. With regular purges of those who matter in the country, there is perpetual fear even amongst the top hierarchy.
It has the requisite technology for nuclear weapons, as it has regularly displayed in its tests, doubts remain on its ability to mount warheads on its missiles and the accuracy of its delivery means. The fact that an impoverished state is spending most of its GDP on nuclear and ballistic technology, in other words, ensuring its security, without a care for its people, is a sign of paranoia. Hence, since sanctions largely affect the populace, it alone possibly may not be the answer.
The impression which North Korea has garnered from other nuclear states like Pakistan, is that possession of nuclear weapons and the technology to deliver it, would ensure that no world power would ever attempt to topple the regime, irrespective of how brutal it remains or even if it recognized to be a state sponsor of terror. It has also learnt from the Gulf that being a dictator is not enough, if you do not possess nuclear power. Both Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi were toppled, despite being powerful figures, for not possessing weapons, strong enough to deter the West. Hence, Kim Jong Un would never be willing to place his own regime at risk, irrespective of cost.
For US, South Korea and Japan, the threat emanates from the unpredictability of Kim Jong Un. He had anyone who even showed slightest disrespect, killed by brutal means, irrespective of his appointment, only to send a message to the rest, hence ensures complete loyalty. North Korea has threatened no other nation, but these three. It has refused numerous overtures for talks including curtailing of military exercises between the US and South Korea. With a nuclear arsenal in hand, other military options appear to be ruled out.
The US has repeatedly resorted to show of force, but the same has been taken as a bluff. Its bombers conducting flying missions, ships in the vicinity, nothing appears to have worked or even impacted North Korea. The deployment of THAAD anti-missile system, has been objected to by China, but North Korea has shown no fear. Even threats by Trump appear to be hitting a wall. The belief that its nuclear weapons would deter any adversary has given Kim Jong Un a feeling of invincibility. His strong control over the masses ensures that they would never rise in revolt, thus he is internally secure. His zero concern of the well-being of the masses, makes sanctions meaningless.
Hence sanctions clearly will not be the answer. A close study of the regime would indicate a one-man decision-making nation, with others solely to applaud when asked to. His ability to be ruthless was evident when he used his team to assassinate his own half-brother as far down as Malaysia, irrespective of international norms or when he murdered his uncle, who was his mentor, by tying him to the barrel of a gun. Thus, only by removing the leader would there ever be a possibility of peace.
A conventional military operation is not feasible, as a nuclear threat would remain. It thus would need to be a missile strike with accuracy and correctly timed, striking the leader directly. Delaying such a decision may allow this rogue state to develop nuclear and missile technology enabling enmeshing the two to ensure a formidable nuclear deterrent.
It is known that the leader is always present on ceremonial events, hence, accepting collateral damage, a strike should be executed. In case successful, there will not be any retaliatory response as others would prefer seeking peace overtures rather than risking survivability of the state. Sanctions in any case, would be meaningless and to prove this point, Kim Jong Un has already threatened about targeting Guam and would soon resort to another missile launch.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army