Russian support to the BRICS declaration is tying down Pakistan Daily O 17 Sep 17
Strong statements by the US president, indicting Pak for its support to terror groups on its soil, was followed by the BRICS statement, which officially listed terror groups emanating from Pak. Pak objected to both the statements and is presently working on reorienting its US strategy. With both China and Russia behind the BRICS statement, Pak was caught between the pincers. Its denials were feeble and ignored by the international community. It even compelled its army chief, General Bajwa to state that the Kashmir issue should be resolved by dialogue.
Afghanistan continues to openly criticise Pak for its terror supporting actions. The US has begun hinting on the possibility of placing Pak or those involved in supporting terror groups under sanctions. To indicate its firmness, it has already ordered the closure of Pak’s largest bank, Habib, in New York, on charges of financing terror activities. Thus, Pak continues to face ever increasing heat.
Recently, there were two comments made by Russia concerning Pakistan. In its first set of comments, Russia welcomed the BRICS summit statement listing terror groups. It was evident that Russia had impressed upon China during the summit, to drop its reservations on naming Pak based terror groups, in the joint statement. A Russian diplomat went on to state that the naming of terror groups was an important breakthrough for countries sharing concern of terrorism in the area. This clearly implies that Russia would support India in its dealings with Pakistan. The BRICS statement automatically gave Russia diplomatic leverage over Pakistan.
The second statement was issued by Pak newspapers recently and quoted their foreign ministry officials as stating the both Russia and China have agreed to support the country in case the US plans on imposing sanctions. US sanctions are basically for those groups operating in Afghanistan, including the Taliban and the Haqqani network, being officially supported by the deep state. While the two statements are linked to Pak supported terror groups, they are not contrary.
The newspaper statement indicates the impact of geopolitics and international relations. Both China and Russia have poor relations with the US, hence would never permit US sanctions against Pakistan, unless they are also impacted, as has been the case with North Korea. Thus, while they would support Pak in the case of sanctions, by employing their veto, however would continue applying pressure on it to reduce support to terror groups.
In panic post the US and BRICS statement, the Pak foreign minister, Khawaja Asif, rushed to China. The joint statement issued post the visit, mentioned that nations should recognize the contribution of Pakistan in fighting terror groups on its soil. There was no mention of the BRICS declaration, nor of terror groups operating from Pakistan soil.
Hence, the statement was a diluted one, indicating only support against US actions, however quiet on anti-India terror groups. This has been the first innocuous statement as compared to most earlier ones on the subject between the two countries. China, due to its massive investments in the country, is compelled to support Pak against any US actions, military or imposition of sanctions.
Russian support to the Indian stand on Pak based terror groups, as was evident in the BRICS statement, is likely to put pressure on Pak to begin curbing terror groups operating from its soil. Russia is unlikely to give Pak a free run in its future endeavours on launching terror strikes on India. This could be a quid pro quo for support from US threatened sanctions. Here is where Indian diplomacy should be concentrating, taking advantage of the position Pak is in. Further, Russia is seeking new markets for its defence industry crippled by western sanctions, post its misadventure in Ukraine, Pak is a welcome addition.
The game at play is Afghanistan. Russia and China seek a larger role in the handling of the Afghan crises, as they or their satellite nations are directly impacted by the growing presence of the ISIS in the country. Presently, the combined Russian and Chinese initiative includes Pak, Iran, Afghanistan and India. It is also known that Russia, China and Iran are in contact with the Taliban leadership, for varying national interests. The US on the other hand seeks to operate alone in Afghanistan, with India supporting and participating in economic development. With sanctions imposed on Moscow, the US cannot be seen to be collaborating with Russia on Afghanistan.
Pak is and would remain on the cross roads. Pressure would continue to build from the US, including even drone strikes across the border on its supported anti-Afghan terror groups. China and Russia would only support it from US sanctions, however, if terror activities increase from its soil, it may be the loser. Hence, it would need to walk a tight rope. It has its own internal problems which restrict its actions.
The deep state controls terror groups operating from its soil, while the polity bears the brunt of international criticism. The defence minister recently made a statement wherein he stated that the state needs to do more to curb the activities of anti-India terror groups. Opposition leaders condemned his comments. Statements emanating from Pak that there are no groups operating from its soil had no takers. Even China refused to buy these words, as the last joint statement indicated.
Pak, despite tall claims and counter statements on the BRICS summit can only bank on Russia and China to pull it out of the mess it has created for itself. This can only happen if it cracks down on terror groups within.
For India, this becomes a diplomatic opportunity to engage positively with Russia to ensure that pressure continues to be applied on Pak to control anti-India terror groups, if it desires Russian support against possible US sanctions. We need to look ahead and take advantage of the position Pak is in, thus ensuring building pressure from those it considers its allies. Diplomatically sleeping now, would let this opportunity pass into the sunset.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army