Pressure grows on Pakistan The Statesman 03 Oct 17
The recent diplomatic battle at the UN general assembly between India and Pakistan, followed up by their respective ‘right to respond’ and press comments clearly indicate that animosity between the two nations is only increasing. Numerous counter comments by both, display of pictures, including a wrong one by the Pak permanent representative solely to make a point, only moved the relationship further deep into an endless pit. The UN has always been a diplomatic battle ground between the two, however this year it took a turn for the worse.
India took advantage of the fact that Pak had faced the brunt from the US and within the subcontinent, Afghanistan and Bangladesh would join it in condemning Pak for its terror support. In every case, Pak had to resort to taking the ‘right to respond’ to clarify its own position and seek to present a different picture, the only country in the world to do so multiple times. India was also buoyed by the success of the BRICS summit statement, hence could let the anger flow, hitting Pak where it hurt the maximum, poor development, lack of facilities and domination of terror groups within the country.
The animosity had been building post India calling off talks, after the Pathankot strike. Pak has always felt that terror and talks should continue, while India clearly desires to delink the same and only consider talks, once terror stops flowing, which is nigh impossible, hence unlikely to resume in the near future. With a clear directive on the issue, highlighted by the surgical strike and violent response to Pak’s border misadventures, India has pushed Pak into a position of no choice.
The Pak civil government hopes that by commencing talks and moving forward the agenda on Kashmir and other disputed areas, including Sir Creek and Siachen, it could gain leverage to compel the deep state to reign in terror groups. The deep state on the other hand is unwilling to relent as any attempt to reign in terror groups could lead to an internal backlash, adding to woes of the security forces, as the groups have gained power and created an identity of their own, with the masses.
For India, considering talks, opening dialogue and a strike reoccurring, could spell political disaster for the present government, which has during its tenure adopted a hard policy. Hence, unless it is assured of cessation of terror activities, it would be wary of moving forward. This wide perception gap is neither easy to bridge, nor is there any midway point which could suit both countries.
Pak thus harps in every international forum, including the UN General Assembly, that the UN resolution must be implemented under the aegis of the UN Security Council. The Indian stand is amply clear, which it has continuously reiterated, that as per the Shimla agreement and Lahore declaration the issues were to be discussed bilaterally, hence the UN declaration is redundant. Thus, differences only widen and animosity builds.
Pak had over the years used the separatists to ensure that the valley remains in turmoil and under developed, despite massive government investments. Its funding the agitation and pushing in cannon fodder terrorists, created environment of violence, compelling the Indian army to enhance deployment. Its support to terror groups and funding violence, has enhanced animosity from the Indian end. Violent border clashes with civilian casualties have pushed the countries further apart.
Presently, with the NIA and ED moving after the separatists and isolating them, while the army buoyed by enhanced intelligence and surveillance means achieving spectacular success, the scenario is well within control and can be considered near normal. Thus the deep state’s well-oiled plans appear to be falling apart. It has attempted to increase infiltration attempts, most being nipped in the bud, enhancing frustration within the deep state.
Modi’s announcement of political support to the Baluch people in their freedom struggle has been misconstrued by Pak to indicate military support. Further, with an increase in operations by the TTP, spread across the country, Pak appears to be facing greater threat, adding to their woes. Their blaming India and Afghanistan appears to be misplaced, but must be done, as is the only way to shift blame from the failure of their military. In a simple analysis, India faces limited turmoil in the valley, Pak faces it almost across the length and breadth.
India’s intention of isolating Pak has been noticed by them, adding to their anger and moving the relationship further downhill. Support from all neighbouring states, which refused to attend any SAARC summit in Pak, has pushed the only regional grouping of which Pak is a member, into a state of near collapse. The region, less Pak stands as one, alongside India, as recent events indicated. The US providing India backup, seeking an enhanced role for the country in Afghanistan has riled Pak to levels which have hurt its inner most core compelling their Prime Minister to make an international statement that it would never accept any role for India in Afghanistan.
Pak had banked on support from China and Russia for continuance of its existing policies, irrespective of international views. Hence immediately after the BRICS summit, its foreign minister rushed to China. The joint statement while stating continued support made no contrary comments on the BRICS statement. This indicated a shift, small but significant. Russia, also commented, that the BRICS declaration on terrorism would reduce terror support in the region.
Recent comments by their foreign minister, Khwaja Asif, that Pak is aware of its liabilities, implying terror groups and terror masterminds, however lacks assets to deal with them, hence needs time, is another signal of the pinch beginning to hurt. It has finally begun visualizing its internal scenario from the Indian viewpoint. It was compelled to ban the formation of a political party led by Hafiz Saeed. The US defence secretary, Jim Mattis’s comment that we would be watching Pak, is only enhancing pressure.
Differences are immense, animosity high and no sign of any thaw in relations. Mounting international pressure by the west, regional isolation, increased firing along the LoC with India, encounters with militants in the restive tribal belts and along the Durand Line are only adding to the woes of their army. It knows it must act against terror groups, but hesitates, fearing a backlash, akin to the Lal Masjid incident, this time from deep within, including POK. Increased international isolation fuelled by India would enhance animosity and increase pressure in the near to mid future. It would be worthwhile to watch Pak attempt to preserve its survival as a nation state, while being compelled to dismantle terror groups.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army