Donald Trump and Pakistan (English Version) Amar Ujala 04 Jan 17
The new year tweet by Donald Trump, blaming Pak for taking US funds and doing nothing in terms of supporting its war in Afghanistan, has brought Pak and its fake anti-terror policies back into focus. As expected Pak jumped and sang its same old song stating that it has done more for eliminating terrorism than any other country in the region, while the US has not compelled Afghanistan to curb anti-Pak terror groups operating from their soil. Following Trump’s tweet, the US re-appropriated the USD 255 Million it had earmarked for Pak.
Pak has always failed to explain what its war on terror implies. The Pak army launched an operation post a siege in Jul 2007 on the Lal Masjid, leading to over a hundred deaths. Most of the dead were from Pakistan’s North-Western provinces. The Lal Masjid was the place from where the ISI used to recruit maximum militants to operate in Kashmir and Afghanistan. Tribal leaders, whose supporters had died, swore revenge. On 14 Dec 2007, over forty militant leaders from the North-West commanding a strong militant base, joint hands and formed a united front under the banner of Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP). It is this group that the Pak army has been battling, in addition to freedom struggle of the Baluchi’s. It is their own creation, which has turned against them.
The Pak government machinery including the army, polity and foreign office condemned Tumps statement. Pak should have expected a strong statement, as recently, the US Vice President, Mike Pence, had stated in Afghanistan that Trump has placed Pak on notice. The Pak National Security Council met, post Trump’s tweet, and sought to project a united front. Pak even summoned the US ambassador and lodged a protest. India and Afghanistan supported the comment, while China jumped in to back Pakistan, as it had always done and was expected to do. The Pak foreign minister went on to add that Pak could account for every penny that the US had given.
It is well known that the US was aware of Pak acting against their interests in Afghanistan, but their dependency on the Karachi port and hoping Pak changed its policies, forced them to maintain status quo. US silence over the years only emboldened Pak to continue with its good and bad terror group policy. The US was aware all the time of the presence of anti-India groups, including the LeT, JeM and HuM, amongst others, however chose to turn a blind eye. Even the elimination of Osama bin Laden and Mullah Mansoor on Pak soil should have been ground enough for them to act, but it maintained status quo.
The US knows that it can never succeed in Afghanistan, unless Pak joins the battle, by pushing terror group leaders out of their sanctuaries on Pak soil. Once in Afghanistan, they could be tracked and relentlessly pursued by US air and drones, thus compelling them to come to the negotiating table. It is ultimately by getting to talk, while being in a position of strength, can it hope to establish peace in Afghanistan and withdraw. The recent release of US citizens from the clutches of the Haqqani network by the Pak army on their territory was claimed by them as an example of joint support. However, they failed to state that one abductor had been captured alive, whom the US desired to interrogate. Pak refused, adding to US anger and frustration.
Finally, it was Trump who took the bull by the horns and unilaterally announced strict action against Pak. The US has begun applying all forms of pressure on Pak. Economically the IMF, almost controlled by the US would restrict aid to Pak, similar would be other lending bodies. Pak’s foreign exchange is presently critically low hence it seeks an IMF bailout. Though this cut may not mean much, but is clearly a message that Pak must act, failing which, further hurting actions, including removing it from the list of non-NATO allies may be done.
While Pak still has China to give it the desired diplomatic support, yet it is now caught in its own web of creations. If it adheres to US demands and acts, it would anger those very groups which it created and like the TTP, they could easily turn against them. It would make the TTP stronger with others joining, in case Pak tries to push them out. This would only add to the present woes of the Pak army. Thus, it hesitates to act.
The other reason for delay and hesitation by Pak is that it views Afghanistan from an Indian prism. Its desire to control the government in Kabul, by installing a Taliban led or controlled one would ensure India has no role in the country. This would only happen, in case the Taliban and Haqqani network becomes stronger and gains greater internal control.
In case Pak still does not act, after this clear warning by Trump, the US would be forced to take the next step, which would be enhancing drone strikes across the border into Pakistan, targeting terror groups camps and leaders. Such strikes are bound to result in collateral damage which would impact the standing of the Pak military, being unable to ensure security of its own populace. It would further mitigate the atmosphere between the two nations. The US knows that such an action would only end in criticism, no counter actions. Even China would be unable to support Pak.
The US pressure would be maximum at this time of the year, as the Taliban and Haqqani regroup prior to launching their spring offensive. Post the launching of the offensive, the US would be divided in its approach, as it would be battling on multiple fronts. It is aware of the criticality of the time factor, hence has begun applying multiple pressures on Pak.
While Pak would face increased tensions on its western border with Afghanistan, India has begun enhancing pressure on its Eastern front. Cross border strikes, strong retaliation to its ceasefire violations and eliminating infiltrating militants have begun pushing the Pak army to its limits. India should plan to enhance pressure on Pak’s western borders, while the US commences drone strikes on its eastern front. Since the US has officially warned Pakistan, India should join hands with it to isolate the nation. With US and Saudi relations warming, direct pressure from Saudi Arabia, another close ally, may push Pak harder. Pak is now in a catch 22 situation. It knows it has to act, but does not know how it should.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army