Will Afghan peace talks commence? The Statesman 13 Mar 18
President Ashraf Ghani recently gave a call for talks with the Taliban, while addressing an international conference in Kabul. In his call, he offered to allow the Taliban to establish itself as a political party as also work to removing sanctions against them in addition to other incentives. There have been mixed reports following the President’s call.
One report stated that the Taliban were cool to the offer, while another stated that they were willing to negotiate, but would do so only with the US. In their opinion, the present government is a puppet regime, installed by the US and adopting US policies. All nations involved in the conflict, including Pakistan, supported the announcement made by President Ghani and encouraged the Taliban to come forward. India even raised the offer in the UN demanding nations with influence on the Taliban, to push it for talks.
Just prior to the call for talks was the path-breaking ceremony of the launch of the Afghan portion of the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) pipeline at Herat in Afghanistan. TAPI is expected to transfer natural gas from Turkmenistan to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan. The ceremony was attended by the Presidents of Afghanistan and Turkmenistan, Prime Minister of Pakistan and the Indian MoS for External Affairs, MJ Akbar. TAPI is expected to provide a revenue between USD 400 to 500 million dollars annually from transit duties to Afghanistan.
The Taliban realizing the potential income, which could be a boost in the long term, immediately offered to support the pipeline and even promised cooperation in providing security to the pipeline in the areas under its control. For them the pipeline implies manifold advantages. Firstly, it would earn from ensuring security in its territory. Secondly, if it does come to power in Kabul, this would be an invaluable foreign exchange earning annually. Finally, by hiring locals in its region of control, it could generate goodwill. The question remains whether this offer by the Taliban could be alluded as its desire to join talks or was it in their selfish interest.
The Taliban had in early Feb published an open letter addressed to the American public expressing a desire for talks. The letter called on the ‘American people’ to pressurize the Donald Trump administration into negotiations. The US on the other hand has always insisted that the talks would be led by the Afghan government. Even Pakistan had been stating that the only solution to the conflict is Afghan led talks. Thus, it is possible that the present offer by President Ghani is a result of this letter.
Another plausible reason for both to contemplate talks is the resurgence of the IS in Afghanistan. With the IS losing most of its territory in Syria and Iraq, it now needs new regions to reinvent itself. Afghanistan, presently in a state of confusion, is ideal. Its presence in the country has been established and is worrisome for all Afghanistan’s neighbours. Both the Taliban and the Afghan government are battling the IS. In case, the Taliban is willing to come forward for talks, then the concentration of force would shift against the IS.
The Taliban on other hand, apart from being sheltered by Pak has been in dialogue for multiple reasons with Russia, China and Iran. All these nations, though vehemently opposed to the US also have a stake in securing peace in Afghanistan. Spread of IS in the region would be detrimental to all of them. For China, its investment in the CPEC is also likely to be impacted by the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan. Hence it would desire peace. In the present environment all neighbouring nations would prefer the US remains in the country for the present, providing security and containing the IS.
The Taliban control or influence almost fifty Afghan districts. From their bases in Pak, they can launch direct attacks onto Kabul, which they have been doing. Hence it is essential to force them out of Pakistan to enhance pressure on them. However, its suicide attacks in Kabul resulting in mass casualties would have impacted its support base. It is only when the Taliban realizes, that it is in a stalemate situation would it be willing to accept talks, which is possibly the state at present. In addition, it would also be facing pressure from Pak, which remains under international scrutiny for its links with the Taliban. Hence the Taliban leadership would have been compelled to recalibrate its strategy.
The US, while calling for the Taliban to accept the offer for talks, has been unrelenting on pressure on Pakistan, to stop supporting the group and push the leadership across the border. This pressure has been mounted from multiple directions. Stopping aid, cross border drone strikes and even through the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The US is also aware that Pak can be pushed thus far and no more, as it still needs to depend on Pak facilities and air space.
Thus, in the overall context there has been a forward movement, though small. Talks are being mentioned, with both sides still waiting for the other to take the first step. If the US comes in for direct negotiations, the Kabul government would be left embarrassed. Maintaining the legitimacy of the government is essential, despite all its shortcomings. The US may remain present on the table for discussions, but the leadership role would need to be played by the Kabul government. It is with this backdrop that the US recently refused to commence direct negotiations with them.
It is still early days however signs appear positive. The nation has witnessed immense bloodshed and deserves peace and stability. Pressure on the Taliban must continue from multiple directions to compel it to reduce its acts of violence and adopt steps to peace. Pak has direct influence on the Taliban hence should continue being pushed to the wall, to enhance pressure for talks.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army