The changing global order (English Version) Amar Ujala 12 Apr 18
The last few months have witnessed a rapid change in global alignments. Post Russia seizing Crimea in 2014, the west began imposing sanctions. Trump was expected to turn things around, when he announced during his campaign on multiple occasions that he would be good friends with Putin. With proof of Russian involvement in US elections now becoming a reality, he has been compelled to impose sanctions after sanctions on the country. In the latest round many Russian oligarchs have been included in the list.
The poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in UK led to most western nations ordering Russian diplomats to leave. While the affected nation, UK expelled 23 Russian diplomats, the US expelled 60 as also ordered the closure of the Seattle Consulate. 14 other nations joined the US and UK in expelling Russian diplomats. Russia responded likewise against each nation, including ordering the closure of the US consulate in St Petersburg. This pushed relations between the US and its allies and Russia to its lowest ebb, post the cold war. It is now being termed as the new cold war.
Trump keen on fulfilling his electoral promises and seeking to reduce the trade gap against China, imposed tariffs on many Chinese products. In the first round the US imposed tariffs worth USD 50 Billion. China responded likewise, placing import duties on American fruit and pork amounting to the same amount. The US responded by adding tariffs on another USD 100 Billion worth Chinese imports. China would respond, worsening trade relations. While China can expand its markets, the US would be more impacted. The US is already contesting Chinese claims in the South China Sea. Thus, US and China are moving into a trade war, apart from already being militarily hostile to one another.
The US Pentagon had stated in its national security strategy, earlier this year, that while the war against terrorism is slowly ending, threats from Russia and China are increasing. Russian proximity to Iran, Syria, Turkey and China have challenged US domination in Europe and Eurasia. Its support to opposing powers in Syria have enhanced its confrontation with the US. It has ensured alongside Iran and Turkey, that the US would not be able to enforce a regime change in Syria. The US is now contemplating pulling out of Syria as it visualizes no future in its involvement. Russia has also refused to rollback in Crimea, thus challenging the west.
China’s growing economic power, drawing nations into its fold by enhancing economic aid at exorbitant rates of interest based on its Belt Road Initiative (BRI) has challenged US dominance in the region.
This has compelled the US to consider both Russia and China as its adversaries. Latest US actions have pushed Russia and China even closer, setting aside their earlier suspicions, especially of Chinese growing presence in the Central Asian Republics, challenging Russian dominance. Thus, emerges the new cold war, with the US on one end and China and Russia on the other.
At the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) conference on international security in Moscow, the new Chinese defence minister, Wei Fenghe, stated, ‘The Chinese side has come to show Americans the close ties between the armed forces of China and Russia.’ He went on to add, ‘The Chinese side is ready to express with the Russian side our common concerns and common position on important international problems at international venues.’ These statements highlight that western actions have pushed two militarily powerful nations, once mutually suspicious of each other, into one another’s arms.
Post the SCO conference, the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, also visited Moscow, where he stated, ‘Moscow and Beijing should work together to bring some common sense to those who think they can do anything they like’, clearly aimed at Trump. Presently the two most powerful leaders on the planet are Putin and Xi Jinping, both having a strong grasp over their nations, with virtually no challengers. Both nations are militarily powerful. Their joining hands to challenge the west can change the global balance.
Into this quagmire are India and Pakistan. Pak is already a Chinese stooge, dependent on China for everything, while being insulted and accused by the US. It is but natural that it would also be seeking to rush into any alliance which would challenge the US, thus ensuring its own security from US actions.
Russia, aware of distancing Pak-US relations and Pak influence over the Taliban has enhanced its engagement with it. The two nations conduct joint exercises and have increased diplomatic engagements. Russia, against Indian requests has already sold few MI-35 helicopters to it and would also commence offering other equipment also. With Pak influence, Russia and the Taliban have begun direct engagement. Recently, the US force commander in Afghanistan, General John Nicholson, stated in an interview to the BBC that Russian weapons were being smuggled to the Taliban across the Tajikistan border.
India is moving closer to the US, though it continues its diplomatic engagements and procurement of arms from Russia. Russia is evidently moving away from Indian shores and closer to Pak and China. Though India abstained from voting in the UN on the Skripal poisoning incident, it had no impact. Both Indian adversaries, China and Pak, are already close allies. Bringing Russia into their fold would remove it from being the one source of strength India could always count on.
Thus, this emerging Russia-China-Pak axis would be a challenge not only to the US and the west but would also impact India as it would reduce India’s diplomatic support base. This axis would impact future global issues including resolving the ongoing crises in West Asia, North Korea and Afghanistan. The US would face challenges from this axis militarily, diplomatically and economically. India can expect almost no support from Russia, whereas Pak could. India may need to reconsider its diplomatic strategy for the long term.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army