The future in the valley post NICO The Excelsior 21 Jun 2018
Based on a request by Mehbooba Mufti, the home minister, Rajnath Singh, after deliberation declared NICO (Non-Initiation of Combat Operations) against terrorists in the valley. It was announced a day before the Prime Minister was to visit the valley, two days prior to the commencement of the holy month of Ramzan. The concept meant no conduct of cordon and search operations, implying reduced operations against local terrorists, enhanced counter infiltration measures and continued operations against Pak inducted militants.
The government had reasons for acceding to Mehbooba’s request. It felt that during a major festival, reduced operations would convey a message of peace and give the locals a feeling that the government cares and possibly generate goodwill. It was also the time when the government hoped families would convince their wayward members to give up the gun. Finally, with the home minister visiting the valley with a message of peace, it was hoped that the separatists would accept the olive branch and at least agree to a dialogue.
The government was aware that violence would not come to a standstill during this period. There would be incidents, mainly led by Pak inducted militants, however lower in intensity. The assessment was correct, stone pelting did reduce, the worst being the attack on a CRPF jeep in Srinagar, which left one dead. Grenade throwing on security forces camps continued across the valley, though on a reduced scale. The negative worry was experience from the earlier declaration of NICO in 2000, where militants roamed free, regrouped and reorganized and were able to motivate more youngsters to join.
Separatists, possibly due to directions from Pak, refused to join talks, claiming the government must announce the disputed status of Kashmir, akin to the words of the Pak foreign ministry. They did come under local criticism from the relative of the boy killed in Srinagar, but indicated their power, by having him apologize for his outburst. This criticism was not exploited by any political party.
The Hurriyat’s stand clearly indicates that their desire is to ensure the valley burns, youth lose lives and violence would beget violent reaction from security forces, adding to casualties, giving Pak a chance to internationalize the problem. They are aware that if peace reigns they would lose their importance. It is evident that none in the valley can challenge them, though knowing that they are behind local deaths, as they control the gun and the man behind it.
It is also equally confusing as to why the government has suddenly stopped investigations by the NIA and ED, knowing that money is still moving into the hands of the Hurriyat through Hawala. It does appear that the government knowing that no second rung leadership exists, which could talk, in the absence of the Hurriyat, has hence let them free. This despite the open admission by Asad Durrani, the former Pak ISI chief, stating that one of the best actions by Pak was to have created the Hurriyat.
The one good takeaway from NICO was, as per reports, that not a single youth joined militant ranks. This was because no local militant nor stone thrower was eliminated, hence there was no burial, which is the inciting ground for new militants. Further, away from the cities, there was generation of peace and goodwill. Since actions against local militants had reduced, emphasis shifted to the jungles, where Pak infiltrated militants were trapped. Many have been eliminated.
Militant actions on the last days of NICO sent a message in no uncertain terms that they do not want the ceasefire to continue. The two incidents on 14 Jun, assassination of Shujaat Bukhari, the editor of Rising Kashmir and his two personal security officers as also the abduction and killing of Aurangzeb, the Jawan from Poonch, was almost a challenge to the government to recommence operations. It is evident from which direction the challenge came.
The separatists almost non-response to the two incidents is an indicator of their indirect support to the killings. If even for the death of a militant, they have demanded closure of the valley, in the case of Bukhari, there was, other than crocodile tears, nothing at all. For Pak, peace in Kashmir is an anathema. The valley must continue boiling, youth killed resisting security forces operations, stones pelted regularly and more picking the gun. Hence its militants would have been tasked to select a target which was bound to force security forces to discard NICO.
Investigation would prove which group was behind the attack as also whether it was done by local militants or Pak inducted. They would be caught up with soon and meet their fate too. If security forces had continued to maintain NICO, the valley would have witnessed an increase in militant attacks as neither the separatists nor Pak desire a peaceful valley. This was evident with increase in violence, post Eid.
What is of concern across the region is the commencement of the Amarnath Yatra, for which sanitization and domination of the route is essential. Additional forces would also have been inducted into the region to ensure the yatra moves peacefully. It is a national event and cannot fail nor be hit by militant strikes.
Hence, the government had no choice but to lift NICO, which it has done by a statement of the home ministry on 17 Jun. While the government and security forces may take any measures to bring about peace, unless the locals themselves realize who their internal and external enemies are, and do not desire the valley to experience peace, it can never happen. The period of Eid has shown what peace implies, pushing it forward is now in the hands of Kashmiri’s. Will they be able to break the shackles of the Hurriyat is to be seen.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army