Kashmir

Kashmir

Article 35A indicates the fault lines within the state CENJOWS 16 Aug 18

The debate on Article 35 A continues. The supreme court would now hear the case in the last week of this month to determine whether it deserves to be referred to a constitutional bench. Legal issues aside, the re-emergence of the debate has brought to fore the fault lines which exist in the state. The case, when it last came for argument in the supreme court was adjourned on government request based on demands of its coalition partner, the PDP.

It had given the excuse that an interlocutor had been announced and he should be permitted to obtain views for a lasting solution. The reason being projected this time is forthcoming Panchayat elections, the process for conduct of which has commenced. The government on its part is seeking to delay decisions of the courts, possibly to prevent violence from escalating in the valley.

While the legal aspects of article 35 A would be decided by the courts, there are political and human angles too which play a major role. In the present context, all political parties and separatists from the valley have been preaching the same text to the local populace over the years. It has been oft repeated thus impacting local mindsets.

The fake text being conveyed projects that removal of the article would imply an influx of individuals from the plains changing demography of the valley. No valley based political leader has made this comment in any rally outside the confines of the valley. Leaders in the valley have threatened increased levels of violence if the article is removed.

Thus, evidently, whether it be the PDP or the NC, their concern is only the valley, not the state. Hence, arises the question, does J and K still deserve to be one state or two states with one Union Territory. The intention of stoking fires within the valley is also to retain their political base.

In the present context existing rules permit residents of the state to purchase land anywhere within the state. Therefore, residents of Jammu or Ladakh are officially permitted to buy land in the valley. Over the years, the migration of population has been in the reverse. Hundreds are moving out of the valley into safer pastures of Jammu, changing demography in the plains, which as per state laws is legal.

They are establishing colonies on the outskirts of the city. There have been no reports of a reverse migration in any way. Hence, claims of valley based political parties on change of demography is false. With the forced migration of Kashmiri Pundits there would now be no takers for the valley, despite all its tall claims.

The plains of J and K, as the entry point to the valley and Ladakh, are an ideal location for its development as an industrial hub for the requirements of the hill region and to exploit raw materials from the rest of the state. Article 35 A has prevented investment by business houses and hence the entire state lacks development. This has never been projected by any political party within the state.

J and K comprises of three major sub divisions, Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. Each is unique, whether it be terrain, population identity or political support. The recent rape and murder of an adolescent in Kathua indicated fault lines within the state. It was an expression of anger and frustration within the Jammu region of attempts at changing demography.

It is an established fact that article 35 A impacts the state and not just the valley. If it was regressive, as has been projected by valley political parties and separatists then there should have been similar lockdowns, across the entire state. There has not been any call for a shutdown anywhere else other than the valley. Multiple organizations in the Jammu region have been campaigning for its removal. It therefore clearly emerges that there is a difference in perception across the entire state and hence the government must act in accordance with the wishes of the majority.

Population wise, the Jammu region has a larger population than the valley. Land area wise, the Ladakh region is much larger. The protest called for in the valley was only effective in five districts if the valley. Hence, with the state under governor’s rule, there are two actions which the centre must take prior to determining its stance.

The first is the holding of a referendum within the state on whether this article should be retained or abolished. If majority are for its abolition, then the centre and the state have a legal justification to proceed further, ignoring the demands of the minority. The state cannot be held to ransom by a small region.

The very announcement of a referendum would create panic within the valley and bring forth the reality that it stands alone and considers itself distinct from the rest of the state. It would clearly indicate that the opinion of the separatists and valley based political parties is not in tune with the rest of the state but biased and against the interests of the majority.

The second action which would flow from the results of the referendum is considering dividing the state into three parts, meeting the aspirations of its population, not of the valley alone. However, this does have a negative fallout as converting the valley into a separate identity dominated by one religion could open doors to increased violence, apart from demands of merger with Pak solely on religious grounds.

Legally, there may be constitutional issues in considering the removal of article 35 A, however realistically if majority of population has a single view, then since the government is responsible to the majority, its removal should be supported by the centre. Hence, it becomes mandatory for the government to hold a referendum to obtain views from across the state, rather than be cowed down by threat of violence from a region of the state. Doing so, it is projecting that it is concerned only of the valley and not of the rest of the state.

Role of press in changing perceptions on Kashmir The Excelsior 25 Jul 18

The reality is that Kashmir faces a proxy war pushed on the country by Pakistan. The proxy war claims the lives of terrorists, Kashmiris and security forces. Complete Kashmir does not burn, nor are all Kashmiris anti-India. The thousands involved in the conduct of the Amarnath Yatra are also Kashmiris for whom the yatra is a source of income and have always sought a peaceful yatra.

There are some districts where the youth, instigated by the Hurriyat’s flow of funds and ideology are seeking ‘Azadi’, without truly understanding the implications of their demands. The Hurriyat instigates the youth claiming an independent state, while it genuinely seeks to join Pak. The flags flown during the agitation are of Pak and the ISIS, while the cries are for an independent state.

The Hurriyat’s demands are akin to those of the deep state, as they have been created by it. The failure of earlier governments in stemming their rise is history and cannot be reversed. They are still considered important for valley based political parties, who have continued to either directly or indirectly engage with them.

It rejects talks simply because the deep state is unwilling for it. It has a demand, which no state can ever accept. It has always sought talks between India, Pak, Hurriyat and POK. They have prevented, solely due to their money power and control over hooliganism, the rise of a second rung or a non-Hurriyat group which can move forward in talks. Thus, there is a stalemate and no ready answer is available. It has exploited the elimination of local militants and those killed in stone pelting for political benefits and further instigation.

The youth lured by the glamour of militancy rush to join. They have witnessed the respect accorded to those eliminated. Most remain untrained, hardly move out of their districts, seeking the security provided by their kith and kin. They are aware that surrender is looked down upon, hence most refuse it. The few who do manage to enter from Pak know that once inside theirs is a one-way street. They can never return and thus can only kill till they are eliminated. None would ever be able convey the truth to their families on the realities of Kashmir.

The elder generation, which has suffered the maximum under militancy and witnessed the surge of the same in the nineties are clearly not in agreement. They are aware of the damage militancy has done to the state and their lives. To a substantial extent they have failed to convince the youth of the foolhardiness of their approach. They are most impacted when their children, who have picked up the gun, motivated by Pak sponsored ‘over ground workers’ and the Hurriyat are trapped in encounters. They feel the pain when youth who pelt stones become casualties.

Political parties in Kashmir continue to play a double game. They engage with the Hurriyat, while blaming the centre for failing to resolve the problem. While in power they restrict the police from operating in full force in regions which form their political base. They use multiple terms to describe a solution for the valley, terming it from a social to a political problem, however have no logical solution except talks, knowing it would never happen.

For them withdrawal of security forces or removal of AFSPA would pave the way forward, as suggested by the Hurriyat. They have yet to justify with any logic, who would control militancy if security forces are withdrawn, as Pak would neither desist from infiltration or motivating locals to join. The army being the ultimate source of power must be protected as it must succeed. The nation has no other option.

For the nation, the situation in Kashmir is conveyed by the electronic media, which regularly discusses the region, post any major incident, in their prime time shows. For its discussions it brings forth security experts to convey the story from the security angle, anti-India members from fringe Hurriyat organizations and political leaders of the main and opposition parties. The aim has always been to create a debate where opposing parties accuse one another with hardly any logical discussion. On occasions, experts from Pak are also brought forth, whose sole aim is to deny their involvement and term the present situation as an internal uprising. The discussion only enhances anger within the nation and against those from the region.

There has never been a media house which has brought forth common Kashmiris which have condemned violence, stayed away from agitations and only sought a peaceful region. With the Amarnath Yatra in progress, view of those commoners providing services while seeking to eke a living, critical of violence are neither recorded nor conveyed. For majority Kashmiris, the daily disruptions of cordon and search, encounters and bandhs are irritants which impact daily livelihood.

Even majority of the youth whose education has been impacted and routines disrupted denying them a better future are critical of the violence. It has only few, influenced and paid for by the Hurriyat, who have attempted to disrupt security forces operations, while the image projected by the media is of the entire region.

The media continues to harp to the nation that the entire valley is in the throes of militancy, whereas the reality is of a handful of districts in South Kashmir. For those attending the yatra, this is the image with which they started and would clearly be broken by the time they finish, as majority Kashmiris they encounter are warm and supportive. The media must change track, bring forth those who have been critical of the violence and desire a peaceful Kashmir, where they could walk free with their heads held high. Only then would the true image of Kashmir be visible.

PDP, NC failed valley Deccan Herald 24 Jul 18

The withdrawal of support to the PDP led government by the BJP led to the establishment of governor’s rule in the state. The assembly was suspended, not dissolved, keeping options open for the formation of the government by any party, which can break other political parties. All state parties, less the BJP, have demanded dissolving of the assembly mainly to safeguard their MLAs joining them. Omar Abdullah even went on to add that the present environment in South Kashmir is not conducive to holding elections, thus indirectly supporting the imposition of governor’s rule.

In a statement on Martyrs Day last weekend, Mehbooba Mufti warned the BJP against breaking her party, which appears to be the weakest now, and forming a government. She warned the centre that this could give birth to new terrorists in the state. She stated that it could lead to a situation akin to 1987, when the Muslim United Front was repressed by the rigging of the polls.

Omar Abdullah countered Mehbooba by stating that not one new militant would be created by the splitting of the PDP. His opinion was that the PDP was formed in Delhi to split the Kashmiri vote. The BJP on the other hand has denied any such attempt.

The sad part of valley based political parties, whether the NC or PDP, is that they have failed the very people that voted them to power. They should have been at the forefront, either in power or out, seeking to assuage the masses from the false and fake propaganda flowing from Pak and the Hurriyat, thereby saving innocent civilian casualties.

It was the PDP which forced the centre to slow down its NIA and ED investigations into the money laundering cases involving the Hurriyat. The initial investigation and the demonetization had suddenly brought down levels of stone pelting in the valley. However, as the ED and NIA were forced to halt their investigation, money flow recommenced, stone pelting and violence increased. This was evident when the NIA and ED moved in immediately after governor’s rule was imposed.

Farooq Abdullah has been regularly jumping from one platform to the other. At times he has supported the Hurriyat in their demands, at times opposed them. Never has he or his party sought to engage with the youth, seeking to allay their false dreams of ‘Azadi’. The combined failure of political parties from the valley has led the situation to where it presently is.

It was Farooq again who enhanced passions in the valley when he challenged the government on its decision not to contest the case against Article 35A in the Supreme Court. He stated in a rally that removal of Article 35A would see levels of violence never witnessed before. Mehbooba Mufti, afraid of being side lined in the valley directed the state attorney general to fight the case on behalf of the state. Both these parties failed to realize that the article affects not the valley alone, but the rest of the state, which would be keen to see the end of it.

Youth joining militancy could have been curbed had the state government decided to ban public burials of eliminated militants or those involved in pelting stones. These were the launch pads for inducting fresh recruits into the system. It is only after the imposition of governor’s rule that the police have begun imposing restrictions on burials. It now may be too late, however would take time before the trend starts reducing.

It is these political parties which restricted the police from operating at will to curb the growing militancy. This was evident when the present DGP of the state stated in an interview after the imposition of governor’s rule that the police would now be free to act. This is not the first time when the state has required a governor’s rule to curb rising militancy. It has happened in the past too, however post elections and the formation of a valley dominated government, the situation has again become grim.

State governments should have interacted with the youth, opened avenues to them and weaned them away from the influence of the Hurriyat. Neither political party from the valley even attempted to do it, during their tenure. They remained mute spectators while the valley slid downhill. Never once did any valley politician criticize the umpteen calls for hartals and bandhs given by the Hurriyat. It indicated to the common Indian that valley political leaders were under their influence, rather than being nation figures, who could change the future of the state.

Presently, both parties are more than willing to sit idle and let the security forces under governor’s rule restore normalcy. Their statements that the condition in the valley is unsuitable for elections only manifests their desire to stay away and let civilian casualties rise, while they like the Hurriyat stay safe and away.

It is possibly time, when a party whose majority hold is in the plains now seeks to take over the reins of the state. It would give the state a fresh perspective and support security forces in restoring normalcy. They would not be worried about their vote banks in the valley, as they lack them there. Simultaneously, they would come down hard on the Hurriyat as they do not depend on them for survival.

There are occasions when an unfamiliar perspective can bring forth the change where the tried and tested have failed. Thus, if the BJP can muster a majority, it should attempt to form the government. It has no hold in the valley, hence may prove beneficial in restoring order.

The manipulated UN report on human rights abuse in Kashmir (English Version) Rakshak News 04 July 2018

The UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC) for the first time released a report on human rights abuses on both sides of the Kashmir border on 14 Jun. Since neither nation had given the commission access to their part, the report was based on ‘remote monitoring’. The term ‘remote monitoring’ itself is questionable as it opens the report to being influenced by any nation, agency or individuals. Data presented by any agency, nation or organization could have been utilized to determine its ultimate findings. It is evident that elements against the nation are behind providing this data.

The report covered the period from Jul 16 to Apr 18. The question which has yet to be answered is, why Jul 16. After decades of relative calm, there was a sudden surge in internal violence post the elimination of a leading terrorist Burhan Wani and it was evident that violence was being surged by funding from Pak through its proxies. The report should have commenced from 2013 or even earlier. It appears that the period was selectively chosen and given to the UNHRC. The report should have logically covered the reasons behind the sudden surge in violence, including proxy war, but these aspects were completely ignored.

Further, the world is aware that India is not fighting home grown terrorists as Pakistan and other nations are facing. It is a proxy war enforced on the country. India as a nation needs to defend its borders against infiltration of terrorists. Pak on the other hand has no such threat. Hence, India faces Pak grown, trained and funded terrorists. This is an aspect which the report ignored, since it was planned to be anti-India.

Interestingly, the report charged the army on Human Rights (HR) abuses. If it had collated data through remote monitoring, then it should have also collated details of HR cases against the Indian army also available in the public domain. From 1994 to May 2018, there have been 1770 allegations against the army on HR violations from all parts of the country. Of these, 1725 allegations have been investigated in depth. Post investigation, 1625 charges were found to be baseless. From balance cases found genuine, 153 army personnel have been punished and in 53 cases compensation has also been paid to the victims. These details should have been mentioned but have been ignored.

The report terms POK as Azad Kashmir. This term is only used by Pakistan. Other nations including the UN use the term Pakistan Administered Kashmir. The question again arises as to why this term was used. Gilgit Baltistan has been accepted internationally as a part of POK. This report indicates it as a separate province. It is therefore evident that the report has been tweaked by UNHCR to suit the requirement of Pak or written as a proxy by Pak.

The report talks of armed groups in Kashmir. Armed Groups indicates an insurgency with home grown terrorists and NOT a proxy war. Nagaland, at the height of insurgency had armed groups. Kashmir has terrorist groups, trained, funded and pushed into the region by Pak.

The report criticized the employment of Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) in the state. The type, nature and level of force to be employed to quell a proxy war, as against an internal uprising is determined by the state. An international agency, unaware of realities, banking on limited inputs, provided by interested parties has no right to comment. The army has and would always remain as the instrument of last resort. The protection which it is to be provided is determined by the state.

The head of the UNHRC, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein even attempted to justify his report in an article in the Indian Express. In his article he used the right terminologies, which his report ignored. His justification was only beating around the bush as none of the criticisms given by the government were addressed or answered.

The government of India and the army chief have rightly criticised the report being biased, one-sided and without understanding the realities of the region. It is evident that the report has been prepared by an agency from Pakistan. Despite some groups stating the government must act on the report, the fact remains, how can you consider and act on a report which is based on half-truths done to satisfy a nation which includes employment of terror groups as a part of state policy.

Amarnath Yatra is a boon for Kashmir The Excelsior 04 Jul 18

A report in the Tribune of 10 Jul 2017 stated, ‘Every year thousands of Muslims offer their services during the yatra, including renting out their ponies and working as palanquin bearers’. Hundreds of shopkeepers and traders set up shop selling walking sticks, puja items, Kashmiri shawls and handicrafts. The report quoted a local, Nazir Ahmed Lone from Kulgam in South Kashmir, who stated, ‘We anxiously wait for the Amarnath Yatra. We want the yatra to be progressed peacefully because our livelihood depends on it.’

An example of the business is that over Rs 40 Lakhs worth of only walking sticks at Rs 20 each are sold in the yatra every year. Those involved in providing their services for the yatra travel all the way from districts South of the Pir Panjal including Doda, Rajouri and Poonch alongside those from the valley. The earnings during this limited period more than justifies the stringent security checks and tough living conditions.

Post the attack on the yatra last year, there were reports of many locals rushing the injured to the hospital and even donating blood. Local support is always visible in the event of an accident of any pilgrim vehicle. For the local Kashmiri, the successful conduct of the Amarnath Yatra is a signal for tourists to flock the valley. Violence during this period has a negative impact. 2016 was a difficult year as the yatra coincided with the elimination of Burhan Wani. The yatris’ had to commute by night as during the day the roads were blocked by protestors. That year was the worst year for tourism in the valley.

The thousands who participate in the yatra come from every corner of the country carrying with them hope, faith and belief. Most have made this trek despite reading about the the environment in the valley. They come in all age groups. They have complete trust in security forces responsible for their security. The come prepared to go through the difficult trek and tough weather conditions. The terrorist strike on yatris last year occurred because they had assumedly felt safe with their Kashmiri brethren. In addition, was an unexpected puncture, which almost left them as open targets.

The yatri, prior to his move for the holy Amarnath Cave has only been aware of the status of Kashmir through the projections of the media. Media has always insisted that Kashmir is in turmoil and the majority of the population is against the nation, seeking ‘Azadi’. Therefore, the yatri commences his move with distrust and doubt, visualizing every Kashmiri whom he meets to be an anti-India individual.

It is only during his move, halts in multiple places and close interaction with the common Kashmiri, who form the majority population of the state, from the base camp onwards, does he understand the realities. He realizes that the majority are hardworking simple humans seeking to eke a living and care as much for their families as any other Indian. The yatris during the move pass through the most picturesque regions of Kashmir. They end up as ambassadors of the state, projecting it as a tourist destination and spreading word on impressions gained from the common Kashmiri, with whom he would have had long conversations during the conduct of the yatra.

Most militant groups dominated by Indian militants are aware of the importance of the yatra and that the local population earns immensely from it. Hence, the Indian Hizbul Mujahideen Commander sent a message a few days ago to the yatris stating, ‘You don’t need any security as you are our guests’. They realize that targeting the yatra would make them lose their own support base.

On the other hand, Pak infiltrated militants have an opposite aim. For Pak, India in internal turmoil, post a strike on a group forming part of only one religion, by terrorists belonging to another, would have multiple benefits. It would impact the ruling party in the forthcoming elections as it would be played up by the opposition. It could also lead to internal disturbances as the majority community has been targeted. Finally, for the government to save face, it would be compelled to act by launching some form of strikes across the border. This time Pak may remain well prepared.

Thus, groups infiltrated from Pak and lying low at present would have been tasked for this purpose. It is to thwart such attacks that security for the yatra is essential. Security involves securing the route of the yatra, their place of halts and their movement. Each year lessons are learnt and implemented. This time to ensure no vehicle wanders off like the last year and becomes a lucrative target the government has fixed RFID on each vehicle. Unscheduled halts are clearly prohibited.

For those involved in the conduct it is always a nightmare. There are multiple agencies whose tasking needs to be coordinated, security being a major concern. Weather is always a hinderance as heavy rains can block roads and delay moves, adding to pressures on days when the weather is clear. There are always possibilities of medical casualties, whose treatment and evacuation need to be catered for. Drills and responsibilities have been clearly laid down, yet there is always the unexpected which may occur.

Hence, a peaceful yatra brings forth many benefits. It promotes tourism, provides a major source of revenue for the locals and in turn for the state, provides employment opportunities for many locals as also spreads a message on the true character of the general Kashmiri.

Those who participate once, always seek to repeat the same. For the nation, the yatra signifies the bonding between Kashmir and the rest of the nation.

Amarnath Yatra bridges Kashmir with India (English Version) Rakshak News 27 Jun 18

The Amarnath Yatra, which commences at the end of this month is more than just a pilgrimage. It, apart from being a major part of the national calendar of pilgrimages, akin to the Mansarovar Yatra, is an event which builds bridges. It draws the faithful from across the country for a pilgrimage which has continued uninterrupted over the years. Apart from its religious significance, it indicates the government’s determination of ensuring religious diversity even in remote and troubled regions.

For Kashmiri’s the yatra is an early awaited event and is a major revenue earner. Those involved in offering multiple services essential for yatri’s along the final route of the yatra are muslims who have travelled all the way from Rajouri and Doda districts alongside those who come from different regions of the valley. During the yatra period they earn a reasonable sum and thus are present every year despite strict security checks and tough living and working conditions. They are simple hardworking Kashmiri’s who represent the majority, only seeking a better life for their kith and kin, with their earnings here. None of them desires any interruption by means of a militant strike, as it would severely impact their livelihood.

For traders it is a bonanza in sales. With tourism on the wane, it is here that handicrafts are sold in large numbers, as pilgrims desire to carry back fond memories of their visit. Most Kashmiri locals are also welcoming and supportive. There have been reports in previous years of locals assisting stranded yatri’s or accident victims during the process of the yatra.

For the participants, security threats mean little. Every year their numbers increase and so does their determination. When asked, they state in one voice that since the Indian army is responsible for their security, they possess no fear. They represent majority Indians, who trust the army from the depth of their hearts. It is the average Indian who performs the yatra, hence, the determination and spirit shown by him proves that the nation can never be cowed down by any enemy or adversary seeking to harm its internal fibres.

For Pakistan and its small band of terrorists operating within Kashmir, it offers a large movement of unarmed public, representing almost all parts of the nation, consisting of one religious group, transiting on known routes daily. They realize that any incident or strike on this pilgrimage would give them disproportionate publicity. Further, incidents like the attack last year, especially with a BJP government at the centre and governor’s rule in the state could give it a religious character resulting in the targeting of minorities in parts of the nation enhancing communal divide.

Thus, immense precautions are taken at every stage while catering for boarding, transportation, medical emergencies and security of those participating. For the organizers, it would always be sleepless nights, as there are multiple challenges to overcome and innumerable contingencies to cater for, in addition to coordinating actions and activities of a variety of agencies involved in multifarious tasks in the conduct of the yatra. The weather always adds to difficulties as roads can always be blocked leading to traffic being stranded at remote locations.

The yatra is more than just a religious pilgrimage. It is an indicator of the determination of the common Indian, surmounting multiple challenges to fulfil a religious obligation. It conveys to the world that Indians have complete faith in forces responsible for their security and no threat would deter this faith and belief. It also projects to the nation that complete Kashmir is not a troubled region and all Kashmiri’s are not anti-India. It is truly the yatra which bridges Kashmir with the rest of the nation.

No Kashmir is not burning. Saying so only helps Pakistan Daily O 26 Jun 18

There is a general perception being projected through multiple sources of media, via editorials, opinions and prime time debates, that the situation in Kashmir had deteriorated and hence the BJP has withdrawn support, preferring governor’s rule. The true reasons for withdrawal are mainly political and their desperation to maintain their hold of the Jammu belt, which they were fast losing.

It was evident that Mehbooba was more concerned about the valley, being her electoral base and facing Pak’s proxy war, than Jammu and Ladakh. Stating political reasons for their withdrawal would impact the reputation and standing of the BJP, since when it joined the coalition the situation was no different, hence it was seeking a trigger, or an incident and the assassination of Bukhari provided it.

The reports on the deteriorating situation appear to have been guided by the BJP’s comments that security forces would now have full freedom to act and regain control in the valley and blown up by an ever- obliging media. The BJP has gone further in mentioning that security forces can now employ a ‘hard approach’. Peaceniks and to some extent Mehbooba have been stating in multiple forums that there would only be a resolution to Kashmir through talks with all stakeholders, a term which remains ambiguous and not through a ‘hard approach’.

The valley has been in its present disturbed form for some time now. The levels of violence of 2016, post the elimination of Burhan Wani, were an aberration. The army has operated in the same manner, employing the same tactics, with miniscule changes based on the perceptions of commanders, prior to implementation of NICO, during it and post the establishment of governor’s rule. The only difference was that most militant leaders were earlier from Pak, but now are local.

There would not be any change in the army’s approach, tactics and weaponry. It will continue to smoke out terrorists as hither to fore, employ minimum force, call parents of local terrorists hoping for their surrender and counter stone pelting if it interferes against their operations. Thus, the term ‘deteriorating situation’ and ‘hard approach’ are a political misnomer, projected by the BJP, aimed at garnering credit for future army successes, which it knows would come about, as also to justify reasons for its withdrawal from the coalition govt.

There would however be some major benefits of operating under the governor’s rule, especially in the valley. The state surrender policy, which could not be cleared due to differences in the ruling coalition would now be approved, so would be the rehabilitation policy. Investigations by the NIA and ED into Hawala transactions of the Hurriyat which were pushed onto the backburner by the PDP led government, hoping for a breakthrough in talks would now be visible again.

A major benefit would be in the approach of the state police, which would be freed from the shackles of political interference, an aspect which the J and K DGP aptly described in an interview, ‘every political party has its compulsions’. The other visible difference would be that pardons granted to stone throwers may be withdrawn.

Local youth joining militancy has been billed as an indicator of deteriorating law and order. The same has been happening because of glorification of eliminated local militants and deaths of those either caught in the crossfire of encounters or attempting to disrupt operations.

The state police, immediately after declaration of governor’s rule, has issued directions to control burials, preventing militant presence and speeches, which was resisted by governments dominated by valley based political parties. This would play a significant role in reducing recruitment into militant ranks.

The youth have been fed with dreams of ‘Azadi’ which local leaders know is never feasible. No political outreach has ever been attempted to change this view. It is this unrealistic dream alongside funding of stone throwing which has continued to incite violence.

The deployment of the NSG is being justified by a section of the media as being due to the deteriorating situation. This perception is false. Their deployment, akin to those of the Graud (air force commandos) and MARCOS (naval commandos) is to hone their skills through live engagement, rather than just normal training as was the norm.

Over the years levels of violence in the valley have risen and fallen, however peace and resolution of dispute has alluded the region. Security forces have on numerous occasions brought the situation under conditions of ‘near normalcy’, only to lose ground as there has been no political push for resolution. Demands for talks with stakeholders has always been a vague term used by peaceniks. None has clearly defined stakeholders.

If the words of Mirwaiz Umar Farooq stated in an interview to the Tribune on 24th Jun are to be considered, there would never be talks, as the Hurriyat’s demands are beyond acceptance of any government. He stated, ‘There are two ways out- grant the right of self-determination under the UN resolutions or hold talks between Delhi and Islamabad, Srinagar and Muzaffarabad (capital of POK).’

The present government has categorically stated talks and terror cannot go together as also no government in history would have the Hurriyat and POK political leaders on the same table as Pak. Thus, while peaceniks may continue mentioning talks, it appears nowhere on the horizon as apart from the Hurriyat, there are no visible stakeholders.

Thus, with no political solution in sight, security forces would continue operating as they have been over the years, controlling levels of violence, reducing the number of militants and eliminating those being infiltrated. Pak would not cease supporting levels of violence, as for them there is no other option and with minimum investment it provides them with maximum gains and international publicity. It also enables them to resort to India bashing in international forums.

Thus, realistically Kashmir is neither burning nor is the situation alarming. It is being so projected only for political purposes. The hype being blown-up by the media only adds to the perception across the nation. This projection is immensely damaging as it provides Pak with more ammunition to damage Indian standing and enhance the morale of their supported militant groups.

Internally, these comments are exploited by anti-national elements, including the Hurriyat to stir more violence and cry against security forces from the rooftops. There is a need for more responsible statements and the projection of the correct perspective to the national and international community. The truth about talks and relevant stakeholders need to be spelt out by those supporting this concept, rather than being ambiguous.

The positives and negatives of governor’s rule CENJOWS 26 Jun 18

With the BJP pulling the rug under the feet of the PDP, J and K is back under governor’s rule. For Jammu and Ladakh there would be better governance and implementation of development plans as these were ignored by valley dominated political parties. Whatever be the reason for the BJP to quit the coalition, the reality is that the state is under governor’s rule.

A major discussion in all forums is impact of governor’s rule on the future of Kashmir. Considering the present environment in Kashmir, it is unlikely that any other coalition may come forward to take the mantle and possibly burn its fingers. Thus, governor’s rule is likely to continue for a prolonged duration.

Logically, the BJP would claim that it has tried its utmost. With some semblance of normalcy returning to the valley, it went ahead and appointed an interlocutor, Dinesh Sharma, who made multiple visits to the valley and met a cross section of society. It even accepted multiple requests from the Mehbooba government, none of which seemed to work. Based on hers and Dinesh Sharma’s request, despite objections from security forces, the centre pardoned over 11,000 stone throwers, who instead of reforming, went back to the same business.

The government even declared NICO (Non-Initiation of Combat Operations) on Mufti’s demand, which though indicated a drop-in violence, brought forth no tangible results. The Hurriyat refused to engage in negotiations and encouraged an increase in violence as soon as NICO terminated. There was no surrender of local militants, as was expected, nor did any youth join militancy. The planned assassination of Shujaat Bukhari, on the final days of NICO was the tipping point, which gave the BJP the excuse it needed. It was a message sent clearly that peace will not be permitted to reign.

Governor’s rule is in place. Such an action has happened multiple times before. There are occasions, even if violence levels are not high enough for central control, to remove political interference for restoring order, while enhancing government schemes leading to development. Thus, there are always positives and negatives of governor’s rule.

The positives flow from the fact that any political party, which has its maximum supporters in the valley would always seek to restrict anti-terror operations in their region of interest, preferring securing of vote banks to increase in militancy. They would always seek to mollycoddle their youth (vote bank) and desire a soft approach, when the reverse may be essential.

The DGP of Police J and K, SP Vaid stated in an interview post establishment of governor’s rule, ‘With the centre directly controlling the state, we think now that there will not be much political interference in our anti-militancy operations. A civilian government has many political compulsions.’ The hint is evident that whichever valley dominated party comes to power, it has compulsions.

The army has faced lesser political pressures, except the fact that to appease her constituents, Mehbooba has had FIRs lodged against the army even when they have not been at fault. However, restrictions on local police sharing intelligence has impacted operations.

Hinderance to security forces operations by stone throwing was encouraged by their being pardoned by Mehbooba. It gave them the confidence that pardoning would continue as they are vote banks for future elections. It is unlikely that they would enjoy this freedom anymore. Hence, despite availability of funds, it would witness a drop. Simultaneously, calls for surrender of recent entrants to militancy would increase.

There were many political decisions, which could not be taken as there was disagreement between the coalition partners, which the state would now be able to handle. The surrender policy was in limbo and alongside it the rehabilitation policy for surrendered militants. Managing the influx of Rohingya’s in the Jammu belt was a cause of distancing between the two parties. Thus, governor’s rule would provide answers to issues which an uncomfortable political coalition could not provide.

The major failures in the valley which have encouraged anti-national activities are mainly political. These would now be overcome. A key factor has been poor governance and lack of outreach by political leaders, who rarely visited their constituencies for security reasons, thus disconnecting with the masses and ignoring development and managing local issues. With political leaders out of the way, the governor would make bureaucrats at each level accountable. They would be forced to perform and ensure governance. Thus, development would become visible and so would resolution of local issues.

The NIA and ED had commenced their raids on the Hurriyat with publicity and gusto seeking to block the movement of hawala funds which were funding violence and terrorism in the valley. Inputs indicate that Mehbooba had desired these be slowed down, hoping it would lead to talks and peace. Demonetization dried stone throwing and reduced militancy, forcing militants to target banks to fund their cadres. The situation reversed slowly. Presently, there appears to be no dearth of funds. These raids would now commence with full vigour seeking to bring them to book.

Thus, considering the limitations under which the state political machinery was functioning, governor’s rule would be a welcome change. Pressure would mount on anti-national elements and anti-militancy operations would increase in tempo. With the forthcoming Amarnath Yatra, threats to which always exist, security forces would act without pressures.

While governor’s rule is a benefit in some respects, it also has its negatives. The most prominent is the message being conveyed that the state has not been able to control the valley and it is now under army control. In case the next governor is a retired army officer, this message would be become more vocal. This is also possibly the reason, why the centre has not allowed the governor to appoint a retired army officer as an advisor, though many with immense experience of the valley exist. On the contrary, in case the government desires to convey a strong message, ignoring local and international criticism, then it would place a retired military officer at the helm.

Army led operations also need to be implemented with care and caution, seeking to limit collateral damage. One misdirected incident would gain headlines condemning the government nationally and internationally. On the contrary, the army’s continuing local outreach would be more effective as political interference would be missing.

There are two musts for the governor to implement to bring forth normalcy. The first is stopping burial of local militants by the village. In case it desires to permit them, then it should have a restricted group and under the control and supervision of security forces. There would be initial resistance, but it must be enforced as these are breeding grounds for recruitment of locals into militant ranks. No political party in power can contemplate to stop or restrict this as it impacts vote banks, but the governor can.

The second is to relocate the Hurriyat, for security reasons, out of the state. This action, even for a short duration, would suddenly provide a reduction in resistance and violence against security forces action. The government by placing the state under governor’s rule has clearly sent a message that it is not seeking talks for now, but a reduction in violence and militancy to push forward an agenda of development. Hence, the only stumbling block, the Hurriyat, need to be made inoperative.

Placing the state under governor’s rule has positives and negatives. A carefully crafted strategy seeking to push instigators away from the region, controlling the use of burials as a breeding ground and relentless operations with sound intelligence would soon create an environment of near normalcy. In case no coalition is willing to assume the mantle of the state, then while security forces can create better conditions, the bureaucracy pushes the agenda of development forward, opening doors to peace and reconciliation.

Political crisis in Kashmir (English version) Amar Ujala 26 Jun 18

The pulling out of the BJP from the coalition has led to the resignation of the present government. The coalition was from the start, a matter of convenience. The two parties were like chalk and cheese. The BJP won all its seats in the Jammu belt, while the PDP in the valley. The BJP desired a strong stance against terrorism and stone throwers, while the PDP sought a softer stand against local youth who picked the gun and stone throwers, calling them misguided. Mehbooba had a soft corner for the valley and ignored Jammu and Leh, while the BJP could not push forward its agenda for Jammu.

Thus, the BJP was certain that if it continued with the coalition, it would suffer a humiliating defeat in the Jammu belt in 2019. It therefore had to project a change in its approach. As the party gears up for 2019, its first action was to withdraw from the coalition, hoping to regain its lost ground. The unilateral ceasefire, NICO (Non-Initiation of Combat Operations), was a failure as neither did the militants relent nor did the separatists agree for talks.

The PDP on the other hand was only concerned about the valley, from where it gains its strength. When the case for removal of Article 35A was lodged in the Supreme Court, Mehbooba planned to fight the case as a state, ignoring demands for Jammu which wanted it removed. The Kathua rape case brought forth the divide between the two parts of the state. Anger was already rising within Jammu with the growing influx of Rohingya population, which was a precursor to this incident and was being ignored by the state government. It is evident that the governor would act against them in a quick timeframe.

Further, the disagreements within the coalition also prevented the state government from announcing and implementing the surrender package for militants. While Mehbooba wanted to be generous seeking to give a higher package, hoping to rope in wayward youth. The BJP felt that the amount being offered was more than that offered for casualties of Pak firing and militant action. The monthly stipend being offered was almost at par with the amount educated youth got under the J and K government’s fixed pay policy.

The ultimate straw was the failure of the Ramzan ceasefire, for which the blame was being placed on the government from every quarter. The ceasefire was opposed by the state BJP but was pushed down by the centre. Its failure gave the BJP the desired reason. It was seeking an excuse, this was the one. Mehbooba on the other hand was always hesitant with the coalition. She delayed assuming the chair until she received guarantees from the PM on assured support.

While governor’s rule would enhance power and freedom to security forces to act, however could always have a negative impact. The upcoming Amarnath Yatra, a national event, which is eagerly waited for by local Kashmiri’s as a major source of revenue and equally by participants from across the country as a major religious pilgrimage, is also a sought-after target by militants. Hence its conduct would be a major security concern.

With governor’s rule, possibility of seeking talks with separatists is all but over. While the interlocutor would continue with his task, not much could be expected. The sudden deterioration in the valley has clearly the hands of the Hurriyat and Pak guiding it. Hence, possibly government agencies including the NIA and ED would have a free hand alongside state intelligence agencies to act against them, isolate them and reduce their influence in the valley, an action prevented by the PDP.

The negative fallout, which would soon start doing the rounds and become more pronounced is the fact that governor’s rule would project a message that the government has been unable to control the valley. The separatists and Pak would begin stating that the valley is under the control of security agencies (read army). If the government decides to appoint an ex-army officer as the governor, as is being spoken off, the calls would become more pronounced. In case of one incident leading to casualties this message would become louder and exploited internationally.

Even during the height of the violence post the elimination of Burhan Wani, the fact that the state had a political government kept anti-nationals and Pak from claiming that the valley has been handed over to security forces. While they accused security forces of employing pellet guns or excessive force, they could never claim that security forces control the state. The same would not be the situation at present, hence security forces need to be cautious.

The BJP has taken a gamble, though it almost had no choice. It was because of a complete mismatch between the parties in outlook had begun losing its support base in Jammu. It was desperate to regain the same. If governor’s rule is unable to bring the situation to near normalcy (normalcy is still far away), the BJP would be accused of being responsible for the failure. If security forces along with the NIA and ED segregate the Hurriyat and reduce levels of violence, the BJP will gain across the nation. The coming months hold the cards for the future of the BJP.

The future in the valley post NICO The Excelsior 21 Jun 2018

Based on a request by Mehbooba Mufti, the home minister, Rajnath Singh, after deliberation declared NICO (Non-Initiation of Combat Operations) against terrorists in the valley. It was announced a day before the Prime Minister was to visit the valley, two days prior to the commencement of the holy month of Ramzan. The concept meant no conduct of cordon and search operations, implying reduced operations against local terrorists, enhanced counter infiltration measures and continued operations against Pak inducted militants.

The government had reasons for acceding to Mehbooba’s request. It felt that during a major festival, reduced operations would convey a message of peace and give the locals a feeling that the government cares and possibly generate goodwill. It was also the time when the government hoped families would convince their wayward members to give up the gun. Finally, with the home minister visiting the valley with a message of peace, it was hoped that the separatists would accept the olive branch and at least agree to a dialogue.

The government was aware that violence would not come to a standstill during this period. There would be incidents, mainly led by Pak inducted militants, however lower in intensity. The assessment was correct, stone pelting did reduce, the worst being the attack on a CRPF jeep in Srinagar, which left one dead. Grenade throwing on security forces camps continued across the valley, though on a reduced scale. The negative worry was experience from the earlier declaration of NICO in 2000, where militants roamed free, regrouped and reorganized and were able to motivate more youngsters to join.

Separatists, possibly due to directions from Pak, refused to join talks, claiming the government must announce the disputed status of Kashmir, akin to the words of the Pak foreign ministry. They did come under local criticism from the relative of the boy killed in Srinagar, but indicated their power, by having him apologize for his outburst. This criticism was not exploited by any political party.

The Hurriyat’s stand clearly indicates that their desire is to ensure the valley burns, youth lose lives and violence would beget violent reaction from security forces, adding to casualties, giving Pak a chance to internationalize the problem. They are aware that if peace reigns they would lose their importance. It is evident that none in the valley can challenge them, though knowing that they are behind local deaths, as they control the gun and the man behind it.

It is also equally confusing as to why the government has suddenly stopped investigations by the NIA and ED, knowing that money is still moving into the hands of the Hurriyat through Hawala. It does appear that the government knowing that no second rung leadership exists, which could talk, in the absence of the Hurriyat, has hence let them free. This despite the open admission by Asad Durrani, the former Pak ISI chief, stating that one of the best actions by Pak was to have created the Hurriyat.

The one good takeaway from NICO was, as per reports, that not a single youth joined militant ranks. This was because no local militant nor stone thrower was eliminated, hence there was no burial, which is the inciting ground for new militants. Further, away from the cities, there was generation of peace and goodwill. Since actions against local militants had reduced, emphasis shifted to the jungles, where Pak infiltrated militants were trapped. Many have been eliminated.

Militant actions on the last days of NICO sent a message in no uncertain terms that they do not want the ceasefire to continue. The two incidents on 14 Jun, assassination of Shujaat Bukhari, the editor of Rising Kashmir and his two personal security officers as also the abduction and killing of Aurangzeb, the Jawan from Poonch, was almost a challenge to the government to recommence operations. It is evident from which direction the challenge came.

The separatists almost non-response to the two incidents is an indicator of their indirect support to the killings. If even for the death of a militant, they have demanded closure of the valley, in the case of Bukhari, there was, other than crocodile tears, nothing at all. For Pak, peace in Kashmir is an anathema. The valley must continue boiling, youth killed resisting security forces operations, stones pelted regularly and more picking the gun. Hence its militants would have been tasked to select a target which was bound to force security forces to discard NICO.

Investigation would prove which group was behind the attack as also whether it was done by local militants or Pak inducted. They would be caught up with soon and meet their fate too. If security forces had continued to maintain NICO, the valley would have witnessed an increase in militant attacks as neither the separatists nor Pak desire a peaceful valley. This was evident with increase in violence, post Eid.

What is of concern across the region is the commencement of the Amarnath Yatra, for which sanitization and domination of the route is essential. Additional forces would also have been inducted into the region to ensure the yatra moves peacefully. It is a national event and cannot fail nor be hit by militant strikes.

Hence, the government had no choice but to lift NICO, which it has done by a statement of the home ministry on 17 Jun. While the government and security forces may take any measures to bring about peace, unless the locals themselves realize who their internal and external enemies are, and do not desire the valley to experience peace, it can never happen. The period of Eid has shown what peace implies, pushing it forward is now in the hands of Kashmiri’s. Will they be able to break the shackles of the Hurriyat is to be seen.

Kashmir: Time for tough decisions ORF 20 Jun 18

Despite all actions being taken by the army, soldiers lose their lives daily. It is either by Pak breaking the ceasefire at will or by their sponsored terrorists targeting security forces. The Hurriyat, creating of which has been claimed to have been the best decision of the Pak army as claimed by Assad Durrani, their ex—ISI chief, sponsors terrorists and stone throwers who target security forces at will. Tying security forces hands, claiming stone throwers are our own but misguided, only adds to their problems. Protecting and financing the Hurriyat only gives them the strength to continue challenging the writ of the state.

The government which proudly professes the surgical strike as a means of garnering votes, appears to be lost in curbing Pak actions, both internally and externally. The army accepted Pak’s request for a ceasefire, but has it worked? Reports appear daily of Pak terrorist camps, located close to the border, holding trained terrorists, awaiting infiltration. Infiltration attempts continue unabated and Indian soldiers are killed preventing them.

If there is temporary peace along the LoC in the upper reaches of the valley, the Jammu sector bears the brunt and the BSF the casualties. Targeting soldiers on patrol, 700 m within Indian territory by snipers, is clearly sending the message that ceasefire would be violated at will. We may be responding equally, but nothing appears to deter Pak. It only seems to be getting bolder by the day.

Thus, while India seeks peace and tranquillity along the border, it is Pak which chooses the time and place for violations. Hence casualties on Indian side are on the rise. With support from the Hurriyat, fuelling unrest within, the Indian security forces face multiple challenges.

No nation, least of all India, should be willing to accept casualties of its security forces daily, either within or from forces from outside. It therefore needs to counter Pak actions with force and determination externally, while changing its policy to a hard approach internally.

Within Pak, with elections around the corner, there is no government worth the name. The interim government is unable to take any decisions on peace nor is it capable of roping in the deep state. The Pak army chief, General Bajwa has repeatedly made calls for peace, but the same has not been backed by action. In fact, his actions have belied his words. Hence logically the same has been ignored by the Indian government.

Further, the government has refused to engage in dialogue with the Pak army, as other nations have done. The importance of the Pak army chief can be judged by the fact that the killing of the head of the anti-Pak terror group, Tehrik-e-Taliban (Pakistan), in Afghanistan, by a drone strike, was conveyed to the Pak army chief by the Afghan President on phone.

The surgical strike, claims of which were rejected by the Pak army, has therefore failed to be a deterrent for the long term and it is business as usual along the LoC. Indian reactions to all Pak actions have been equally strong, however have remained at the tactical level, hitting their posts, causing casualties. With a suppressed Pak media, their nation is unaware of Indian actions. To further save its reputation, Pak resorts to calling in Indian diplomats to complain of ceasefire violations, placing the onus on India.

India therefore would need to change its approach in countering Pak actions. It should therefore seek to create an intense environment for Pak to make its ceasefire violations costly in terms of casualties. With Pak shortly expected to go forward with elections and the announcement of army deployment in sensitive and highly sensitive booths, its role would increase. Further the elections would need to be rigged as their army chief would have decided its next PM. Hence, the select party must win. The army would therefore have a significant role to play.

Across the border, India must send forth a firm message that it’s threshold of tolerance has been crossed. Hence, as a first step it needs to pull its border residents back to safety. Secondly, it needs to move forward heavy artillery along the border. Escalations should be strong and powerful, seeking to strike deep, ignoring world or Pak condemnations, increasing the tempo each day.

Simultaneously, it needs to enhance the level of deployment of the army for presumably training purposes, close to the international border, forcing Pak to resort to the same. The more Pak deploys to counter Indian actions, the lesser are forces available for deployment and influencing elections. Further, such actions severely impede Pak finances. For a nation on the verge of seeking bailouts to avoid bankruptcy this would only add to their exchequer. China would be forced to direct Pak to reduce the temperature as it cannot be a permanent fund provider.

Internally, the Hurriyat needs to be pushed to the wall by blocking their funding. The NIA and ED, which have gone soft in their investigation should be kickstarted. Stone throwing needs to be dealt with force. It may give rise to more youth joining militancy, but that would have to be accepted for the present.

The government’s decision of NICO was not responded back in a comparable manner by either the Hurriyat or militants. The Hurriyat had rebuked it, calling it a ‘cosmetic measure’. It even refused the call for talks, claiming that it would be worthless unless India agreed to term Kashmir as ‘disputed territory’. ‘Disputed Territory’ are the words which the Pak foreign office uses for Kashmir. The sudden rise in violence post Eid indicates that the Hurriyat does not desire peace.

There are signs of local anger against the Hurriyat. In a first, a relative of Kaiser Bhat, who was run over by a CRPF Gypsy challenged the Hurriyat, but possibly under pressure, withdrew his allegations. It is thus evident, that the Hurriyat is feared across the region and possesses funds to enforce violence. Hence, once pushed to the wall or moved away from the region, their influence would wane. Their non-announcement of a bandh and a mild condemnation on the assassination of Shujaat Bhukari, clearly points fingers in their direction.

India must now become firm, if we need to stop losing soldiers daily. It is time the government takes tough decisions. Mollycoddling the Hurriyat or stone throwers must stop. If they break the law, they should be dealt with, consequences may come later. With Pak, the time to act is now, when the nation has no government worth the name. The firmness displayed by the government when it assumed office must return or the situation may slowly slide away.

Has Mehbooba’s Mufti’s outreach yielded any positive results in Kashmir Daily O 13 Jun 18

Mebooba has throughout her tenure attempted to be an optimist, at times even utopian. She has regularly called for the youth to shun violence, has announced that guns and stones are not an answer, sought to lodge FIRs against the army for retaliating against stone pelters and even forgiven those indulging in violence. All in the belief that Kashmiri youth would respond to her requests of curtailing violence and the valley would rise to its earlier pristine glory. Her soft approach has been contrary to the hard one adopted by the centre and security forces.

Simultaneously, she had requested for a unilateral ceasefire, especially during the period of Ramazan. The government responded with NICO (Non-initiation of Combat Operations) and once implemented, she appealed to Pak and militant groups to follow suit. As expected, none responded. The LeT officially rebutted her offer.

She has attempted to appease masses by appealing as a state against the removal of Article 35 A, supported the valley by ordering a state crime branch probe into the Kathua rape case solely on religious grounds and has even been regularly requesting the Hurriyat to join peace talks. All her actions seem to be revolving around the valley. She has tended to ignore other parts of the state, seeking to bring peace to the valley.

Her comments appear to present a picture that she has the interests of the valley and its youth in her heart. Her calls for talks with Pakistan have been ignored by the centre as the government continues to blame Pakistan for fermenting violence in the valley. She has at times blamed Pak for the casualties along the borders, while at times she has adopted the Hurriyat line of talks to resolve Kashmir. Her regular demands for initiating talks with Pak have even had her dubbed as an anti-national.

Her basic fault remains in her belief that violence would reduce if security forces limit their actions. It is this belief which has pushed her into seeking a ceasefire. NICO has resulted in the army stopping cordon and search operations, launching operations against local militants in built up areas unless attacked, thus reducing stone pelting. Since no local militants were slain, there were no burials, hence lesser would join militancy. However, all this is a temporary measure. Local militants would soon display their colours and compel the army to relaunch operations. It is time she and her government accept ground realities and act, failing which militancy, which has reduced in tempo would rebound.

The reality, especially as it concerns the valley is lack of political outreach. While she has been making her appeals, her political outreach essential to win the trust of the population, has been missing. Most of her elected MLAs have rarely ventured into their constituencies to spread her word, solely fearing security concerns. Thus, governance and alongside it, her calls for shunning violence, have had almost no impact across the region.

She has simultaneously made no effort to reduce the influence of the Hurriyat, which controls violence in the valley based on their Hawala funds and direct instructions from Pak. They have ignored her appeals and even refused to respond to her. When Irfan Sheikh raised his voice against the Hurriyat, the video of which went viral, she should have exploited the same politically, which she failed to do, allowing the Hurriyat to regain the initiative by releasing the second video, in which he apologized for his outburst. It was only Jatinder Singh of the BJP, who exploited it.

Her utopian belief may have worked had the valley not been radicalized, violence paid for by hawala funds and the youth had opportunities to release their pent-up energy in other spheres. Her blaming and accusing security forces for excessive force, by lodging FIRs has only angered the nation, though may appease the locals.

The reality is that security forces are in the region for a purpose. They neither seek to target locals nor operate against them. When challenged or threated they would respond. Their task is to target militants, locals or Pak launched. In the process, those seeking to distract them, leading to own casualties, would become casualties. She is aware of the multiple social media groups, created and supported by anti-national elements, which incite the public to move into encounter sites, desiring forces retaliate. It is these casualties, either of local militants or stone pelters killed, which breed more militants.

She has refused to accept that it is eulogization and glorification of eliminated militants which has led to more youth joining militant ranks. The chants during the burial, firing of small arms and large crowds, with words of praise by over ground workers and Hurriyat representatives, incites the crowds and draws in recruits into militancy. This has been proved by the recent study conducted by her own police. Logically, she should have stopped family burials for eliminated local militants, but it would impact vote banks, as also initially lead to more violence, hence has been continued.

The BJP-PDP combine in J and K, is possibly a government of convenience as both parties represent different vastly different regions of the state. While the PDP has maximum seats from the valley, the BJP has them from Jammu. Both are desperately seeking to hold onto their vote banks and hence have failed to come together to find common ground in the state. Even the surrender policy is held up due to variations in view. In the bargain, both regions have suffered and neither has trusted the coalition.

It is to her credit that despite all shortcomings of the coalition, they have held together. She has held the fort and attempted to appease the population during the uprising post the elimination of Burhan Wani. Any other weak hearted Chief Minister would have resigned, to gain public sympathy, but she held forth. The government at the centre has been providing every assistance in every manner, yet on ground, visible change is missing.

There is still time. Outreach by the government, positive development, limiting the influence of the Hurriyat and renewed investigation by the NIA and ED, could change the structure in the valley. She can herald this change, but then must climb down from her utopian heights and take the bull by the horns. If she does not act, this combination may not return in the next elections.

The government must act against the Hurriyat before implementing new policies CENJOWS 08 Jun 18

The chilling videos of youth targeting CAPF vehicles in the valley in a planned and organized manner, seeking to cause casualties and force security forces to break NICO by opening fire has hit a raw nerve across the nation. Any individual with basic military knowledge would admit that these attacks have all the hallmarks of a planned ambush including elements deployed to block escape routes. Thus, there is an organization behind the protests, seeking to draw blood, either of security forces or of local youth, to enhance violence levels in the valley.

There has also been a spurt in grenade throwing incidents on police personnel as also an attempted attack by a group of five to six militants on an army camp. It appears to be a plan to force security forces to re-commence its operations, which they had suspended. All this while the government mulls options to expand its outreach in the valley.

The Home Ministry announced that it is seeking to evolve policies to ‘reintegrate misguided youths’ in the valley. This policy is focussed around sports, tourism and employment. In the centre’s opinion, though there are rounds of sporadic violence, levels of stone throwing have dropped post the announcement of NICO.

The ministry elaborated on this policy claiming the intention was to counter the increasing numbers of youth joining militancy. It could possibly have been based on a study conducted by the J and K police, which claims a link between encounter killing and youth from the same neighbourhood joining militancy. The study traced the antecedents of as many as 35 youngsters who became militants after the elimination of Burhan Wani.

In an interview to a leading daily the interlocutor for Kashmir, Dineshwar Sharma stated, ‘the biggest challenge is to calm down sentiments of the people, particularly the youth. The other issue is to prevent local youth from joining militancy and ensure return of those who have joined.’ Simultaneously, has been the rejection of the Hurriyat to the offer of talks by the centre, despite Mufti’s fervent appeal. Latest inputs indicate that the interlocutor may interact with the Hurriyat.

It is well established that the Hurriyat’s demands are such that no Indian government can ever accept. It demands tripartite talks with Pakistan and India, which is beyond comprehension. The intention remains that since India would not accept its offer, violence would continue. Thus, logically the Hurriyat needs to be side-lined.

A recent video on social media where frustration on the Hurriyat was being vented by an individual, Irfan Sheikh a cousin of the youth run over by a security forces vehicle escaping violence, is possibly the tip of the iceberg. A subsequent video, where the same individual withdraws his anger and claims the Hurriyat is family, indicates the level of local power of the Hurriyat.

These two videos convey a few messages. Firstly, frustration is rising against the Hurriyat and secondly, the Hurriyat continues to hold sway over the region as it pays and controls violence. It still instils fear within the public, with few daring to speak against them. Since the videos have gone viral, Irfan may be safe for the moment, however would remain under intense pressure.

Also doing the rounds on social media is an open letter from a business graduate from Srinagar, questioning the Hurriyat’s source of funds for their luxurious lifestyle, medical bills, travel expenses and costly cars. Slowly there is a realization amongst the moderate youth seeking peace and growth, that unless the Hurriyat is side lined, peace will not return. Further, side lining must be done by the local population, assisted by the centre.

The pace of NIA and ED investigation including their raids, which had the Hurriyat on tenterhooks has suddenly vanished, reasons for which remain unclear, thus giving them a second life. They have bounced back with vigour and regained control of violence, with the re-emergence of hawala funds. Unless the investigation proceeds and pulls the Hurriyat out of the valley, chances of peace would continue remaining low.

The aim of the government appears to be to diffuse anger within the youth. The youth, which has been fed with the concept of ‘Azadi’ since birth, and believe it is a reality, would not give it up, unless the local leadership, fuelling this anger is removed from the scene or proved to be misleading. Thus, the removal of the Hurriyat would break the trust on the organization which has been at the forefront of lies and deceit and open doors for amalgamation of youth into society.

The army’s conduct of sporting and other events in the hinterland has witnessed immense participation. In no event were there calls for ‘Azadi’ nor were they disrupted. Disturbances occur either in areas where encounters are frequent or in cities, where the youth in educational institutes are fed with this thought, day and night, as also directly influenced by the Hurriyat’s financial clout.

The policy of terrorist groups masterminded by Pak has been to target political leaders in their home constituencies. This has forced most to remain away breaking the contact between the leaders and the led. It has also dented the confidence of the local public on the state leadership. Political rallies have all but ceased. The one addressed by Mehbooba recently was a rare one. It is this break in communication which needs to be re-established. These ground actions must be re-commenced at the earliest, or the initiative would pass onto anti-national elements.

Before the government mulls any policy decisions, it needs to involve the army, whose views it ignored while ordering NICO, and which interacts at the grassroots levels, hence has indepth knowledge. Kick starting political outreach is equally important. For any policy to be effective, side lining the Hurriyat is essential or else they would remain policies on paper, with no progress on ground.

The truth behind report that says encounters fuel militant hiring in Kashmir Daily O 02 Jun 18

A report in the Indian Express on 30th May, quoting a study ordered by the police authorities on militancy and recruitment of militants in J and K, states that almost half the recruitment into militant ranks, post the elimination of Burhan Wani, came from within 10 Kms of the residences of killed militants or encounter sites and these recruitments took place within 40 days of the encounter. The report was based on a study of 43 encounters spread between Nov 2016 to Apr this year.

The study stated that each encounter set a surge in recruitments and new inductions, which exceeded the number of militants eliminated. Hence, there is a correlation between area of recruitment and militants killed in the same area. For the J and K police, local recruitment was the ‘biggest challenge’.

Adding to public anger is the killing of civilians at encounter sites. The death of protestors trigger protests supplemented by large funeral processions. The report states, ‘Such a charged environment is a perfect blend of emotions and anger that is required to attract militant recruitment’.

On funeral of militants it states, ‘The presence of militants in these funerals not only eulogies the death of militants but at the same time brings active militants into open interaction with civilians. Such an interaction is one of the first and important steps in facilitating recruitment’. An important deduction has been that recruitment is more than the number eliminated. This year 26 militants were killed, while 46 recruitments reported.

Earlier the reasons given for youth picking the gun was radicalization. I have stated in numerous papers that the youth in Kashmir were always radicalized. The present lot of militants were born post the forced migration of Kashmiri Pundits hence they have only witnessed calls for prayers of only one religion. Secularism has all but vanished from the valley.

Kashmiri children have been taught since childhood that ‘Azadi’ is close, hence the slogans of ‘Go India go back’ dot the walls and are uttered by every child. This has been further ingrained by the Hurriyat leadership and from across the border. Hence, anger against the centre and the rest of the nation always existed, despite being granted privileges which no other state has and receiving maximum pro-rata aid from the centre. Kashmiri’s are unwilling to believe that their own brethren across the border are treated worse than second class citizens.

There are two aspects which have been overlooked in the study, though data indicates the same. Firstly, local militants rarely venture out of their region. They are more secure in their home bases, knowing they would have local support. Therefore, most are eliminated close to their residences. Untrained, ill-equipped, most remain poster boys, placing photographs with weapons and releasing video and audio tapes. Surrender in home bases would always be taboo, as it would imply weakness and an inability to remain a militant. Thus, there are very few surrenders.

Secondly, protestors are more violent when it comes to defending local militants as they are well known and if they remain active in the local area, the village or locality has a standing. It is for this reason that locals largely tend to shelter them. Locals seek to disrupt operations by distraction and permit escape from a distance, few would seek to sacrifice their own lives in the process. Had sacrificing been at the core of their thoughts, they would have picked the gun themselves.

Thirdly, the group pushing and encouraging the protestors from a safe distance are the over ground workers, whose main task is recruitment. They know that once levels of recruits reduce, they would be compelled to pick the gun. By encouraging protestors to engage, leading to retaliation by security forces, they gain more supporters and militants from those attending funerals.

However, the main cause hidden in the study for youth joining militancy in regions close to encounters or residence of militants, is the eulogization of slain militants. Bodies being draped in a flag (ignoring the fact that the flag is a Pakistani or ISIS), firing in the air, large crowds chanting slogans praising the militant or anti-India chants is the nearest which could be considered to a state funeral. This mentally impacts fence sitters and unemployed youth, who are seeking to make a name or gain in status. It is these youth who voluntarily join or are egged on by the over ground workers.

The study has analysed the causes well, however fails to come to viable solutions which could offset this phenomenon. The first solution is for the state to bury a militant killed in an encounter, rather than permit a local funeral. This may lead to a political backlash in the initial phases, however is essential as once an individual has picked the gun, he becomes an enemy of the state. This action by the state would reduce the numbers who pick the gun in sympathy. The problem is whether the state would risk this step, solely for political reasons.

Secondly, the change in tactics as adopted by security forces of seeking to capture militants alive, is welcome. This would enable breaking the over ground worker nexus post interrogation, thus reducing numbers of those who join militancy. Thirdly, could be a change in stance of seeking to injure protestors, rather than firing to kill. This change in stance would only come about, if there is an increased back up base of CAPFs and J and K police during encounters.

The analysis in this study are relevant and could lead to the state adopting measures to reduce the numbers joining militancy, which is the major worry of the local police forces. What is lacking is political will, which needs to be firmed in. This would only happen if the state government realizes that reducing locals joining militant ranks is more important than votes.

Ramzan ceasefire in Kashmir: It’s humane and worth the effort The Quint 22 May 18

There has been an intense debate on whether declaring of a unilateral ceasefire in the valley was a correct decision. Those against have felt that the decision would impact security forces operations, permit the militants to regroup and rearm, as also make security forces lose the upper hand they had so painstakingly established. Those in favour feel this action may give peace a chance and enhance confidence on the political process.

A very recent direction given to security forces, post the implementation of the ceasefire is to change tactics and aim to capture local militants alive rather than eliminating them. The intention is to break the over ground worker network based on information gleamed from captured militants, which has been instrumental in radicalizing youth and pushing them into militancy. The aim is also to give those youth, which desire to return to society a chance.

Mehbooba Mufti’s claims that Pak also adopt suit and declare a ceasefire, is unrealistic. There is no logic for Pak to respond to India’s unilateral action solely aimed at the valley, despite tall claims of its army seeking dialogue with India. The confidence of the Indian government in controlling the valley was evident when it announced the appointment of an interlocutor and declared a unilateral ceasefire. This has Pak worried as it appears to be losing the Kashmir plot. It has militants ready to cross, but most have failed in their attempts. Therefore, it would never accept a ceasefire, as it is already on the backfoot.

She also called for militant groups to respond positively. The LeT has already rejected her offer, while others would too. They have no affinity to Kashmiri’s. Their sole role is to create unrest in the state irrespective of local casualties. This, sadly has never been accepted by Kashmiri’s who remain brainwashed on the belief that Pak would support their cause for ‘Azadi’. The separatists, as expected, have criticized the ceasefire terming it ‘illogical and unfortunate’.

Mehbooba has been supported by the National Conference, its main opposition party, which has stated that those who oppose the ceasefire are enemies of the Kashmiri people. Political parties have realized the significance of the announcement, knowing it could be a harbinger for peace, hence supported it, while anti-national separatists and militant groups have opposed it, based on directions of Pak.

During the ceasefire, security forces would continue their area dominance operations, launch anti-militant operations only on specific intelligence, enhance counter infiltration grid and stop cordon and search operations, unless essential. Operations against foreign militants would continue, while those against locals may be slowed as most such encounters are in built up areas. Even in these operations, the aim would be to seek surrenders, rather than eliminations. This would be a major respite for the local population.

Instructions would also have been passed to the army to stay away from Mosques during specific timings, thus avoiding any offensive display of force. Further, the army would seek to enhance its interactions with the local populace by being over-supportive during this period. Unless instigated by stone pelting the army would not respond. It would be a difficult phase as security forces would need to be extra cautious and restrict their nature of operations. Yet, if it results in bringing peace to the valley, it is worth the effort.

The local population, which has been facing the brunt of anti-militancy operations, needs to welcome this decision. There would be lesser hinderances by security personnel. Taking advantage of the situation, families of local militants could ask them to re-join the mainstream. This should also be the occasion, when politicians should return to their constituencies to convince the populace to support the government, rather than oppose it.

The fact that militant groups have rejected the call, clearly indicates who the enemy is. Pak based militant groups are willing to act and draw the army into residential areas, break the ceasefire and cause civilian casualties because for them a peaceful Kashmir, even for a few days is anathema. They would resort to any action only to satisfy their masters in Pak. Hence, the army seeks to engage them in the forests, rather than in built up areas, unless essential.

This gesture by the government is convey to Kashmiri’s, that demands projected by their local leadership is acted upon by the centre. Further, it projects that Delhi is sensitive to their religious needs. It also provides time to those who picked the gun in anger and haste to reconsider their options and return home.

The Kashmiri youth need to realize that Delhi is not an enemy, but desires changing their mindset and would take more than a step forward to convince them. It is now upto right-thinking senior Kashmiri’s to explain to the youth, why it is better to engage in dialogue with the centre, rather than fight it. There is therefore a greater human side to this ceasefire than meets the eye.

Ceasefire in valley faces challenges Deccan Herald 18 May 18

Post Mehbooba Mufti’s appeal to the Prime Minister and Home Minister, Rajnath Singh announced a unilateral ceasefire by security forces. While he stated ceasefire, the logical term would be ‘Non-Initiation of Combat Operations’ (NICO) as was used when it was last announced by Vajpayee in Nov 2000. The term ceasefire is between two nations or armed forces, not between a nation and militant groups operating within it. The ceasefire in Nov 2000 lasted for just 58 days during which over 170 civilians were killed by militants and Srinagar airport and Doordarshan attacked.

The announcement of Rajnath Singh has been welcomed by Farooq Abdullah and his son Omar, along with Mehbooba. She even went on to request Pakistan and militants to adhere to it. The Home Minister’s comments included the words, ‘to help peace loving Muslims in the state to observe Ramazan in a peaceful environment’. It added that security forces are not to launch operations during this phase but ‘reserve the right to retaliate if attacked or if essential to protect the lives of innocent people.’ The statement, well worded, does not place security forces in barracks or prevents their normal operational actions.

Figures released by the state government indicate that 33 civilians, 28 security personnel and 72 militants have been killed till Apr this year. Most of the militants who have been eliminated this year are locals, who rarely stray away from their home bases, preferring to survive with the help of stone pelters. They are more likely to display themselves with weapons on social media sites rather than challenge security forces. Most are neither trained, nor motivated to challenge security forces might, hence rarely survive as militants. Most of the civilians killed are those attempting to disrupt encounters by pelting stones or are caught in the cross fire.

Mehbooba’s call was based on aiming to slow down this unending cycle of violence in the valley in recent times. However, militant groups and stone pelters are not bound by this ceasefire which has been announced. Lashkar has already stated that it would not adhere to it but would escalate its levels of violence. Within an hour after it was announced an encounter commenced in the orchards of Shopian. It is possibly the right moment for Mehbooba to appeal to local militants to surrender and enjoy Ramazan with their families, however that has still not been done.

The call by Mehbooba is possibly for political purposes and to garner local sympathy and support. In all other Muslim nations, where terror groups operate, Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq, there has never been any mention or even a call for a ceasefire during Ramazan, either by militant groups or the state. Anti-militant operations continue unabated and with full vigour.

The central government, already facing difficult times in the state had to possibly take this approach to satisfy its political partner in the valley. Therefore, the announcement appears more political than a serious withdrawal of security forces into barracks. The government is aware that it is now has the situation fairly under control, hence would be unwilling for a reversal.

Pak, which continuously breaks the ceasefire along the LoC and targets Indian posts and villages would never accept or adhere to it. It would continue to attempt to push through militants and may even seek to enhance attacks on security forces through its already inducted militants. Firing along the LoC is invariably initiated by Pak, hence own alertness would remain as hither-to-fore. In this scenario, own forces cannot let their guard down.

What would this ceasefire imply for forces on ground? It cannot imply they would stay in barracks, opening doors for militants to enhance recruitment, pressurizing locals and targeting isolated security posts. While instructions passed state only if attacked they would retaliate, however, expecting them to sit back and lose the advantage they have gained is nigh impossible. Therefore, they would have to take a middle path, which would imply adhering to the ceasefire while not losing the advantage.

Area domination operations would intensify, as forces cannot allow free movement for armed militants. Free movement implies enhanced recruitment, which is detrimental. Anti-militant operations would be launched on confirmed intelligence; forces may preclude the launch of cordon and search operations during specific timings to avoid hurting religious sentiments. Areas around Mosques and where there would be religious assemblies of local population would remain under the scrutiny of local police.

The army may reduce roadblocks and searches in built up areas, however would monitor routes out and in. The anti-infiltration grid would be enhanced to prevent further induction. Firing on an army patrol or movement would imply breaking rules of the ceasefire to launch specific operations. If stone pelters interrupt, they would retaliate, as such actions could lead to own casualties.

If there has to be peace within the valley during Ramazan, then political parties of the valley need to interact with the masses and seek their support in keeping militants out and avoid hostile engagement with security forces. NICO or the ceasefire can never be one-sided. The public would need to be more cooperative than earlier.

The changing narrative in the valley CENJOWS 16 May 18

A few recent events in the valley need to be assessed in totality to draw relevant deductions. Firstly, since the nineties, when terrorists including locals who had joined terror groups, began implementing their own brand of justice by killing Kashmiri’s against whom they had a grudge, such incidents have been rare. It was this wanton killing which drove a wedge leading to alienation of terrorists from the masses and resulted in security forces regaining the initiative. Its re-emergence in recent times is possibly aimed at creating fear within the common Kashmiri and obtaining forcible support, however is also leading to alienation.

Secondly, stone pelting has been in vogue for decades, but rarely have local school children and tourists been targeted. It was aimed at security forces, who initially maintained restraint, no longer. Incidents of strong counters by security forces are on the rise, adding to alienation of the local population and its exploitation by anti-national elements. Incidents of targeting innocents and tourists is possibly linked to a larger design of isolating the valley from the nation. Those who criticized the recent incidents, including the separatists, have done so solely for media attention.

Stone pelting which had reduced post demonetization as also following NIA and ED raids on hawala transactions is back again. The gusto with which the NIA and ED commenced their investigation appears to have fizzled out and fund flows are back on track. Terror groups have stopped raiding banks for funds. With no shortfall of funds, money to support stone throwing and increased violence has re-emerged. Only those caught in the sting operation, conducted by a news channel, remain behind bars, the others are back in the valley. The reasons for the lack of push by the NIA and ED remains a mystery.

Thirdly, interference in security force operations is also increasing, with locals prepared and ready with stones. Response by the security agencies has been equally strong, leading to casualties. In rare cases, security forces have called off the operation, aware that the same militants would be trapped soon, after all he who picks the gun, dies by it.

Fourthly, most of the terrorists being eliminated in towns and villages are local militants, who though have picked the gun, yet remain insecure, hence operate close to their home base, banking on assistance from stone pelters in case they are trapped. Most are ill-trained and ill-equipped. Thus, while numbers joining militancy are on the rise, so is the level of elimination. Figures declared till Apr state 33 civilians, 28 security personnel and 72 terrorists have been killed this year. The fact that information flows to security forces on the presence of militants is indicative of animosity between them and the local populace.

As per a report in the Kashmir Reader last week, Syed Geelani commented that a ‘few black sheep’ are working as informers of armed forces and they are responsible for increased encounters. He went on to add, ‘They, for petty gains are providing inputs to the forces.’ He made these comments while addressing the funeral gathering of slain assistant professor Mohamed Rafi over the telephone.

Fifthly, local terrorists knowing that they are ill-trained and have a bleak chance of survival yet hesitate to surrender. This is because of either being dubbed a coward locally or fear of future harassment. It could also be because an eliminated terrorist is glorified, while a surrendered is insulted. Therefore, despite all calls by the DGP J and K and senior army officials, surrenders have not occurred at desired rates. Possibly by moving surrendered militants away from their home districts, would there be more.

With the above resulting in mounting casualties on all sides, Mehbooba had requested the government to declare a ‘ceasefire’ from the commencement of Ramzan, later this month, till the conclusion of the Amarnath Yatra, in August. Her intention was to break the cycle of violence and re-establish confidence. Her claim that this request is from all political parties in the state was wrong as its alliance partner, the BJP, disagreed.

The army chief in an interview to a national daily almost at the same time stated that while he is ‘ready to suspend’ military operations to avoid civilian casualties, ‘but who would guarantee that there won’t be fire against our men or at our vehicles. Who will guarantee that policemen, political workers and our men returning home on leave are not attacked or killed’. Further, stone pelting would continue, which again is hazardous and would be retaliated to, hence recommencing the cycle of violence.

Historically the Hizbul Mujahideen had proposed a ceasefire in Jul 2000 but withdrew it when India refused to accept Pak as a third party in talks for resolving Kashmir. The ‘Non-initiation of Combat Operations (NICO)’ declared by Vajpayee in Nov 2000 was effective for a limited duration but had no tangible result. It lasted 58 days and during it blasts occurred at Srinagar airport, Doordarshan studio, police and security posts. During this period, militants killed over 170 civilians. It provided militants time to regroup and had to be called off when they began pressurizing locals.

The present call by Mehbooba appears to be ill-timed. By removing cases against known stone pelters she has given them a free hand, leading to enhanced casualties. The streak of violence continues across the region. While security forces may restrict their operations only based on hard intelligence, however, militant groups and stone throwers would never adhere to it. On the contrary, it would enable them to enhance recruitment, training and attacks on isolated posts and individuals. Thus logically, the defence minister, projecting the army’s viewpoint rejected the call.

The army chief’s statement on ‘Azadi’ being only a dream, did invite criticism, yet is the reality. Never, irrespective of levels of violence, could a part of the state ever be permitted to break away. The initial Pak plan was to tie down the Indian army, not seek a breakaway, as they remain aware that it is nigh impossible. They have never permitted it in their troubled western provinces and are aware of the Indian army might. Yet, they play these cards, seeking to befool the local populace, who unless they understand the game, would remain puppets of Pak and their proxies in India.

The balance of power has clearly shifted into the hands of security forces. Local militants remain under pressure and are constantly on the move. Pak based militants remain in hiding, rarely being encountered. Direct attacks on security forces are limited and rare. As the army chief stated number of kills do not count as the cycle of violence would continue.

As the changing narrative proves, while local alienation may exist, control and domination by security forces is complete. Despite any action by security forces, stone pelting would continue as the youth have been made to believe that they could succeed in their demands for ‘Azadi’. Declaring a unilateral NICO may change this narrative, hence has been rightly rejected.

Nirmal Singh: Breaking rules and locking horns with army in J and K The Quint 17 May 18

In the latest incident of responsible politicians breaking norms and rules while constructing residential accommodation in areas designated as security risks is the present speaker of the state assembly and earlier deputy CM of J and K, Nirmal Singh. His house, presently under construction is on a plot 530M from the security wall of the Nagrota ammunition dump. The land was purchased in 2014. Nirmal claims that he and the present Dy CM, Kavinder Gupta purchased the land through a company they had established in 2000.

This construction prompted the Corps Commander to directly write to the Speaker, Nirmal Singh, on the issue because the local administration was not responding to the army’s repeated requests to stop construction work, considering his appointment. The Corps Commander wrote that the house is ‘illegal’ and ‘has implications on the security of a major ammunition storage facility as well as safety of all personnel living in close vicinity of the ammunition depot’.

Nirmal Singh in response claimed that the action of the army was ‘politically motivated’. He went on to add, ‘I have no legal binding that I cannot do the construction. What the army is claiming, it is their view and not binding on me’. He went on to accuse the army, ‘They (army) don’t let people even construct a toilet. People are harassed. Why don’t they get a stay, they can’t do it? There shouldn’t have been an ammunition depot in this place.’

In Aug 2017, the same Nirmal Singh praised the army for its functioning and retaliating to Pak ceasefire violations. In Feb this year he stated, ‘Army as an institution is making sacrifices for the country.’ On being appointed speaker, he stated that he would work to serve the nation and the state. How is accusing the army of being political and refusing to obey orders issued by the local authority serving the interests of the nation and the state?

The violations as listed by the army in the letter were, ‘the construction is in violation of the Works of defence act 1903, as also government of India, ministry of defence notification dated 26 Sep 2002. Further, as per the notification issued by DC, Jammu on 7th Aug construction activity within 1000 yards of the ammunition depot has been prohibited’.

An ammunition depot is always a high-risk area as it has explosives of multiple varieties stored in sheds based on its content. Distances are maintained between sheds to prevent sympathetic detonation between different forms of explosives and reduce damage in case of an accident. Though well protected, ammunition depots remain choice targets for anti-national elements. The explosion at the ammunition depot at Khundru, located close to Anantnag, in 2007, though accidental, had multiple terror groups claiming responsibility, which was rebuked by the authorities.

The ministry of defence had issued guidelines to prevent collateral civilian casualties in 2002. Based on these guidelines depots began interacting with state government representatives to notify a 1000m area around the depot as no-construction zones. These guidelines exist with all state governments and have been in many cases implemented. These are not aimed at securing the area for further construction or for harassment of local population, but for their own security, in case of any accident.

This distance has been violated over the years compelling the government to have local DC’s issue notices preventing any new construction within 1000 M of ammunition depots. Details of those who have constructed prior to issue of guidelines have been noted and state governments asked to maintain these records to cater for compensation in case of accidents. Fresh construction is banned.

Nagrota is based in a region which has witnessed regular terrorist strikes. Hence this depot would always be a prime target. As construction activity increases around the depot, it reduces area open for surveillance and monitoring by security forces. If the top political authorities of the state are the first to break rules, others would follow, only enhancing security risks.

Nirmal’s claims and defence of his actions are baseless and without understanding the reasons behind the army’s actions. Considering his political experience, it is surprising that he claims army action is politically motivated and illegal, after all, the letter was sent in Mar, when he was the deputy CM of the state. Since his violations were clearly listed, it would have taken him no time to clear the veracity of the army’s claims and even study the notification of the DM. His statement indicates his stubbornness, immaturity and unwillingness to follow the law of the land, which he himself has vowed to protect.

The army is clearly apolitical, which the nation is aware of and hence there is no reason for it to adopt any political stance. Further, it is his political party (BJP) which is in power at the centre and in the state coalition. There is no opposition which could have influenced the army to act, except the circumstances of his breaking rules and regulations. It was forced to approach him directly, when local authorities, fearful of his appointment as Dy CM, refused to convey the message. Instead of seeking to cooperate, he has adopted an offensive approach and challenged the army to obtain a stay order.

Legally, the army can obtain a stay order as it is on the right side of the law, not him, and if it does so, then it would embarrass him and his own party further. Stay orders have been obtained against illegal construction in Kolkata and other places and these cases are still being challenged in courts. The Adarsh building in Mumbai is a prime example. Most respondents have lost cases as they have bypassed rules. The same would be the case with him. Further battling the case all the way to the supreme court would tarnish his image, not that of the army.

It is for maintaining the dignity of his office and his standing in the BJP that he must offer an immediate unconditional apology to the army and stop construction. It is also for the head of the party in the state, Ram Madhav, to force Nirmal to act in a dignified manner, rather than adopting an accusatory approach, which would compel the army to seek a stay order and embarrass the party and himself. The earlier he responds, the better it would be for his dented image.

Ceasefire demands from Mehbooba (English Version) Rakshak News 16 May 18

Mehbooba Mufti, The J and K chief minister recently appealed to the centre to declare a unilateral ceasefire in the valley commencing from Ramzan to the conclusion of the Amarnath Yatra in end Aug. Her intentions were noble and aimed at stopping the unending cycle of violence which has gripped the valley, involving elimination of local militants, wanton killing of civilians by militants, security personnel in encounters and stone pelters who attempt to interrupt operations.

The same day as Mehbooba made her pitch, the army chief gave an interview to a national daily. In his interaction he spoke freely against the local demands for ‘Azadi’ stating that these were unattainable, and the army would battle anyone who professes such thoughts. Maintaining that militancy is an unending cycle, the chief stated that numbers did not bother him, as fresh inductees replaced those eliminated.

He also highlighted that the army preferred surrender of militants rather than their elimination. Even the DGP J and K had stated on multiple occasions that they would support and help those who surrender. Over the weekend, the GOC Srinagar Corps even stated that the army would wait prior to launching the final assault, giving militants a chance to surrender. This would prevent glorifying eliminated militants, inciting more to join militancy.

On being questioned about reducing operations and giving peace a chance, the army chief stated that who would ensure security of unarmed civilians, security personnel on leave and movement of administrative convoys. If this was assured the army would adhere to a ceasefire.

As it happened during the Vajpayee days, when the army launched, ‘Non-initiation of combat operations’ in Nov 2000, the nearest word to a ceasefire in anti-militancy operations, there were multiple blasts including at the Srinagar airport and Doordarshan station, while over 170 civilians were killed by militants.

The existing scenario in the valley is already indicating a change. Frequent encounters leading to rapid elimination of militants is shifting the balance in favour of security forces. Attempts at disrupting operations rarely succeed. Civilian casualties are on the rise as stone throwers challenge forces employed in operations, who retaliate back in full measure.

Demands for a ceasefire may be an attempt to stop this cycle of violence and give a chance for peace, as while militancy remains firmly under control and Pak attempts at ceasefire violations and infiltration are responded back in full measure, however the youth appear to be drifting away. Mehbooba has realized that unless the youth are brought back into the mainstream, this cycle of violence would continue unabated.

She may be right in her thought process, however as the chief had stated in his interview, that unless there is a political process in place, with an intention of interacting at the grassroot levels, nothing would change. Fear of being attacked, as some political workers have been killed in recent times, has pushed political parties away from the masses. The distance between the leaders and the led is only increasing, adding to alienation.

She should have on the other hand demanded that the army concentrate on specific intelligence-based operations, reduce roadblocks and checks as also limit cordon and search operations. Such an action would reduce its visible presence and possibly be a harbinger of change.

Expecting the army to surrender its hard- earned gains and lose the initiative to militants, solely as an experiment, with no clear plan of action in place, is expecting too much. Her considering two major religious events, Ramzan and Amarnath Yatra was intentioned at projecting a secular image, however the modalities of one force surrendering its advantage to anti-national elements was unacceptable as the opposing side, militants and stone throwers have no such rules and policies. A much better option would be encouraging surrenders and enhancing interactions at the grassroot levels. Ultimately the army has rightfully refused to accept her suggestion of a unilateral ceasefire.

Radicalization versus glorification CENJOWS 01 May 2018

In recent times questions are being raised on reasons behind increasing number of youth picking the gun in lieu of the pen in Kashmir. The most common reasons being given are radicalization, highhandedness of security forces, lack of employment opportunities and poor governance. The most dominating factor mentioned by all is radicalization.

Security experts claim the current tipping point in Kashmir was the elimination of Burhan Wani in 2016. He was a poster boy militant, who had won hearts of the locals. In Feb this year, the state government released details of youth joining militant ranks over the past few years. The figures are 54 in 2010, 23 in 2011, 21 in 2012, 16 in 2013, 53 in 2014, 66 in 2015, 88 in 2016 and 120 in 2017. This year till date 28 youth have joined militant ranks. The spurt evidently is post the Burhan Wani encounter.

As per the local police, his elimination and subsequent unrest was alone responsible for 110 youth joining militant ranks. A police report stated that ‘the more militants are killed, the more over ground workers have to become militants to fill the gap.’ During encounters in recent months over 16 trapped militants have also surrendered to police forces, details of whom are kept closely guarded. Youth from villages which were untouched by earlier violence are now picking the gun.

An article in Bright Kashmir on 05 Dec 2017 states, ‘the youth of Kashmir is picking the gun because right from his birth he has seen violence and injustice. He lives with this violence and grows with it and suddenly one day we see him with an AK 47.’ This report may justify anger and frustration, not solely radicalization. Kuldeep Khuda, the ex-DGP of Police J and K, stated in an interview with The Indian Express during a seminar in Delhi last week, that in his assessment, 2018 may witness more violence than earlier years as the number of youth joining militancy may rise.

Radicalization in the valley is neither new nor has the valley ever merged itself with India. It has always considered itself as a separate entity. Those who visited the valley even before the commencement of the proxy war were always referred to as tourists from India. It was not ‘All India Radio’ but ‘Radio Kashmir’. While support for Pak never existed, neither did support for India.

The attacks on Kashmiri Pundits in Jan 1990 leading to their mass exodus changed Kashmir forever. Of the entire Pundit population in the valley pre-Jan 1990, only two to three thousand remain. Thus, for youth growing up post this period, the valley has only witnessed calls for one religion for prayer. Temple bells have all but ceased to ring, with most temples even destroyed or dilapidated. With only one religion predominant in the region, secularism in the valley has all but vanished.

The youth have been made to believe that the valley is only for them and no other community is welcome. This factor has been exploited by Pakistan, Imams, separatists and even politicians. Calls for Jihad, stone pelting and interfering in encounters have flowed from Mosques, Pakistan and separatists, exploiting religious sentiments. Farooq Abdullah stated post the supreme court commencing hearing on Article 35A case, that any action to tamper with it, would lead to levels of violence never witnessed, thus threatening the centre and inciting the population.

As per the census of 2011, the population of Kashmir valley was pegged at 69.1 Lakhs. A report in Live Mint in Mar last year stated that 63% of the population was under the age of 30 and 70% under the age of 35. Thus, logically the youth would have only witnessed militancy and the presence of no other religion, hence have been radicalized from their childhood.

If radicalization was the major cause for youth taking the gun, then the figures joining militant ranks would have been more worrisome as majority of the population comprise the youth. Further, the figures would have been similar all through the years, with no extra spurt post the elimination of Burhan Wani. Present figures indicate approximately two hundred plus local militants from a possible male youth population of over 30 Lakhs. Hence radicalization is alone not the reason, while it may be an instigator.

A special report in News 18.com article on 5th Apr this year on the encounter in Anantnag where Rouf Ahmad Khanday was eliminated post his refusal to surrender states, ‘thousands thronged to the funeral and chanted anti-India slogans. A bearded man even praised him for his commitment.’ The report states that shots were fired in the air as a mark of respect and the body was draped in a Pakistani flag. Such a burial is the nearest to a state funeral which is accorded to a security personnel killed in anti-militant action.

The same article mentions that in Shopian, thousands gathered for the funeral of Zubair Turray, one of the thirteen militants eliminated in a single day this month. A college student stated during the procession, ‘They have killed Zubair, but you will see the next Zubair coming from this funeral only. Most of the militants who joined last year were part of Burhan Wani’s funeral.’ This student, in his simple words, brought out facts known but tended to be glossed over by authorities. Hence, in the overall analysis, it is not radicalization which is the major cause for youth picking the gun, but glorification of eliminated militants.

Burhan Wani was mentioned in the UN General Assembly by Nawaz Sharif as a leader and Geelani of the Hurriyat even announced the award of a medal to him. This glorification led to many more youth, presently unemployed and leading mundane lives to join militant ranks to gain name and fame, knowing if eliminated, they would at least be respected. A PDP leader, Waheed-ur-Para claims, ‘it is a cause of alarm that youth find dying attractive’.

It is the family burial, which the state has permitted on humanitarian grounds which has led to an increase in youth joining militancy, not radicalization. Radicalization had always existed.

The state would be aware but is unwilling to accept reality as bringing about changes in its present policy is difficult. Instead it blames security forces for their highhanded approach, while dropping charges against stone pelters. It is aware that if it changes its burial policy, its vote banks may be affected. It is time it decides on what it truly desires, lesser youth picking the gun and being eliminated or votes by refusing to change its policy.

The state leadership must understand the difference between a misguided youth and a militant. A militant is an enemy of the country and should be treated as such. His burial should be done with religious honours and by the state, not his village. The state must consider safeguarding its youth from the gun culture rather than securing its votes. It is a difficult choice but must be made.

Changing nature of militancy and its impact CENJOWS 23 Apr 18

Background

A strong counter infiltration grid adopted by the Indian army and its willingness to hit hard against any Pak post supporting infiltration, has reduced infiltration levels in Kashmir. An approaching summer may bring forth increased attempts however each should be met with enhanced volume of fire, seeking to deter and eliminate. Internally, the rapid culling of foreign militants, which increased after the launch of operation ‘All Out’ has reduced their numbers and impacted domination of Pak based militants in the valley.

Simultaneously there has been an increase in the number of local youth picking up weapons in the state. As per police reports, the figure of locals joining militant groups rose sharply in 2017 to 126, an increase from 88 in 2016. Prior to the elimination of Burhan Wani, the figures were negligible.

Present reports state of one youth joining militant groups every three days, the latest being an army jawan from Shopian, whose family has appealed to him to return home. Simultaneously, there has been an increase in surrenders, which may not be at the same level as those joining.

Increasing local militancy

Multiple reasons have been enunciated for increase in local ranks, the most evident being the honour and respect provided to eliminated militants during their burial. Whether this should continue is a mute question, as once any individual picks up a gun and challenges the authority of the state, he is an enemy of it and should therefore be buried as is done for foreign militants. This honour and respect provides those who are on the borderline the incentive to jump across and join militant ranks.

Local militants generally prefer operating close to their home bases, seeking security of the presence of local population. Most avoid being trapped during encounters, as though religiously motivated, are ill- trained and ill-equipped. Some of those who have joined are active while most remain poster boys, seeking to incite others, while themselves staying away in safety.

Impact of government policies

The state government has been moving softly on stone pelters who come out in large numbers to disrupt anti-militancy operations. In the recent incident in Kulgam, four civilians died in cross fire and security forces firing, attempting to prevent the army from launching its operations by resorting to stone pelting. Local militants who were trapped, escaped as the attention of security forces was diverted. The decision of the state government to withdraw charges against stone pelters has only encouraged them to continue their pelting.

There has also been an increase in civilian casualties due to militant related incidents. As per an MHA report, there was an increase of 166% in 2017 as compared to 2016, in figures it was 40 as compared to 16 in 2016.

Despite announcements and requests by all in the hierarchy in the state and security forces, locals continue to pour out to prevent security forces from succeeding in encounters. Interestingly, all casualties are subsequently claimed as innocents targeted by security forces. Thus, it emerges that local militants remain close to home and have immense support from their community.

Role of the Hurriyat

The Hurriyat continues to portray itself as the voice of the masses, though other than calling for strikes and bandhs, it has been unable to move forward. It has continued singing the same old song of self-determination, while rooting for joining Pak, solely on religious grounds, while knowing that it is impossible.

It is also aware that their kin across the border in POK remain second class citizens and would never be permitted to form an independent Kashmir, despite being called Azad Kashmir. They have ignored the words of wisdom of Farooq Abdullah, who has repeatedly stated that Kashmir can never survive alone as a nation. They have no control over militants and remain only a voice.

Changing trend

With an increase in local youth joining militant ranks, there is an emerging trend in the militancy. In the coming days it would more likely be dominated by local militants, rather than Pak based. They would seek to attack soft targets and would prefer to hit and scoot rather than engage, unless trapped. The changing trend also indicates that many trapped would be unwilling to surrender, even when surrounded. Surrender would imply being considered an insult from their own brethren.

The argument being forwarded by many is that increasing numbers of locals joining militancy is a dangerous trend, as a home-grown militancy remains a threat to the stability of the nation. However, if correctly evaluated it could become a game changer in multiple ways in the long term.

Militancy in other regions of the country have been resolved because in each case there was a leader of the dominant group who could be engaged in talks. In every case, it grew from a local level without a single dominant personality to when a leader emerged, after removing his opponents or reducing the viability of other groups in inter-group clashes.

There are multiple groups in play in the valley. Most groups operate under their Pak handlers, while the changing trend indicates that leaders at local level remain Kashmiri youth. No singular group or individual has yet to emerge, who represents the youth or possesses widespread support. Therefore, the Hurriyat remains dominant as it is unchallenged, and Pak continues to hold the cards.

With passage of time, if the army continues its relentless operations and enhances its counter-infiltration grid, inflow from Pak would reduce. Those few who do infiltrate would need to operate under local Kashmiri commanders, hence impacting direct influence from their Pak based handlers.

Without direct support from Pak, their desire to continue using the names of Pak based groups would begin to change and local groups with local demands would begin emerging. This would give rise to a regional character in the militancy in Kashmir, which for the state could be a positive signal, if correctly handled.

These groups would be regional based with local support as militants prefer being close to their home bases. Inter-group rivalry would increase, resulting in clashes for domination. Being militants wielding power and the gun, they would, akin to every other militancy across the globe become greedy, seeking more power and funds. Atrocities on resident population and enforcing their own brand of justice would increase, leading to their alienation.

Impact on Hurriyat and Pak

With the rise of local militancy, the Hurriyat would begin being marginalized. Its hold on the population would be taken over by militant leaders. If kept under check as is being done presently, they could soon become redundant and expendable.

For Pak, it would become a nightmarish scenario as their control and hold would reduce. They may continue aiming to provide diplomatic, financial and equipment support, but would be unable to directly influence the same. Tight monitoring of hawala and control over the border would reduce direct Pak support. Demands of militants would change from joining Pak to independence, akin to the militancy in the North East. From these regional groups would emerge leaders who would seek to guide the militancy and be the ones the state could consider engaging in dialogue.

Is it feasible or utopian?

The above scenario may presently appear utopian today, however, figures of increase in locals joining militancy, while reduction in infiltration is proving this emerging trend. Even Pak based militant groups are presently nominating local Kashmiri’s as heads of respective organizations, knowing they hold the key. By enabling the Kashmir militancy to develop a local character, there is hope of emergence of leaders with whom negotiations can be considered.

Changing our approach

The issue is whether we desire this situation and if we can exploit it to our own advantage. If a long-term approach is to be considered, then this is scenario would be better than militancy being dominated and controlled from across, with which we only battle, with no end in sight.

If we are to create this scenario then our emphasis must shift from counter-insurgency to counter-infiltration and active engagement of Pak posts supporting infiltration. We need to employ every means to blunt infiltration, even if we must enhance cross-border firing to destroy militant camps and Pak posts supporting them. Simultaneously, we need to reduce collateral damage resulting in fewer locals joining the group. The state needs to reconsider its policy of permitting burial of eliminated militants at home, reducing glamourizing militants.

Conclusion

While we continue to deplore Pak support to militancy as also increase in locals picking the gun, we need to look years ahead. We must remember that all militancy’s were resolved only after protracted periods, none overnight. We have our own North East militancy’s as examples. Therefore, we need to consider and plan for the same now, setting the ball rolling for the future. Every dark cloud has a silver lining and unless we spot it, we may miss the bus.

Re-visiting the Gogoi incident (English Version) Rakshak News 18 Apr 18

The Hindu published an article last week entitled, ‘One year on, life in shreds for human shield’. The article is based on a recent interview with Farooq Dar, the individual who was tied to a jeep by Major Gogoi a year ago, during the by-elections to rescue a team of security and election staff trapped in a booth and threatened by a mob, which was pelting them with stones.

In the interview Ahmed Dar claims, ‘What was my mistake? Going to a polling booth and casting my ballot? I am unable to sleep. Even medicines are ineffective. No one is giving me any work. The government is silent, and the judiciary is moving at its own pace. At times, I wonder whether such an act of cowardice could be rewarded by the army. Is this the message that India wants to send to Kashmir?’

Two incidents, spread over a short period of time in the same region would indicate the illogical manner in which the state government and our so-called Human Rights critics operate. When Gogoi rushed in to rescue those trapped in a small polling booth, surrounded by a mob, armed with stones, he realized that unless he operates out of the box, there would be casualties.

He did just that, picked up the nearest stone thrower, tied him to his jeep, surprising the crowd and rushed the team off to safety. He would never pick an innocent bystander, as he neither had time nor was it worth the risk. It was the nearest and most volatile member of the crowd which he selected, thus stunning everyone into silence.

His action impacting one individual, who subsequently gained international limelight, saved countless lives. He could have opened fire, to save lives of security forces and polling staff, which was also justifiable.

No journalist or Human Rights activist has interviewed the polling officials who were rescued. Had they been interviewed the nation would have heard of the trauma and near-death experience faced by them which would haunt them through their lives. They would never attend a similar duty, despite any pressure from the government. They were not outsiders, but locals, similar to those who pelted stones, sent to perform a constitutional duty, which they could not refuse.

On the other hand, a column of Garhwal regiment soldiers trapped and facing stone throwers, who even injured a few of them, retaliated by opening fire, solely in self-defence and were charged and booked for this action. The Chief Minister ordered the lodging of the FIR. It was lodged against the column commander who was not even present at the site, Major Aditya. It was the supreme court which forced the state government to set aside their investigation.

Hence arises the question, which action is better, firing to kill or adopting an out of the box solution to save lives.

If viewed in hindsight, had Gogoi opened fire, he would have been charged for the same. He saved lives but has been criticized by Human Rights activists. The state government and its PDP leadership, has criticized both actions but would never be able to suggest any alternative. To fire is a crime, to save lives by thinking out of the box is also a crime. This parody continues to dominate discussions even to this day.

The army chief lauding Gogoi was conveying a message of supporting an out of the box approach, so long as it saved precious lives. It was not appreciating the act per-se. In the future there would be other incidents, some of which may demand an approach which could save lives. It may be more difficult, with greater risk to security forces, but if adopted, careless and instigated youth may not suffer.

If lives need to be saved then security forces must act out of the box, especially in emergency and life-threatening situations. Questioning the decision and action of an individual who acted in good faith, would impact the functioning of the force, seeking to bring normalcy in an area, where external influence plays a crucial role. The end state is ultimately the one which counts and in the Gogoi incident, the tying of one individual, saved multiple lives. What would have been better, one individual tied, or multiple lives lost? Maybe the critics may seek to answer?

Kathua exposes J and K fault lines The Statesman 17 Apr 18

The rape of Asifa in Kathua, has brought forth fissures within the state of J and K, which had existed, but remained brushed under the carpet.

Any rape is a slur on society and that of a minor is the most heinous crime which can never be forgiven. While those responsible should be severely punished, however the investigation and subsequent actions by political parties and lawyer groups, amongst others, have highlighted the current regional and religious differences within the state.

J and K has three distinct regions, segregated mainly by religion, especially post the forced migration of Kashmiri Pundits from the valley. Kashmir remains predominantly Muslim while Ladakh Buddhist. The demography of Jammu, predominantly Hindu, has recently been changing. Militant incidents in Jammu are considered an extension of problems in the valley. As long as militancy remained confined to the valley, other regions remained unconcerned, as the valley was always distant and separate, other than forming part of the same state.

Jammu, being the gateway to the state has suffered in development because of multiple articles which restrict investment. Ladakh has always been remained aloof. In Kargil, the marriage of a Buddhist girl to a Muslim boy from the valley led to tensions, which resolved with time. Ladakh has continuously demanded a Union Territory status. Thus, three distinct regions, forming part of one state has been a challenge to any government.

Jammu was already at odds with the rest of the state for multiple reasons. Linking a few would highlight why fissures came to the fore, with the rape only being an excuse. Over the years Bangladeshi’s, seeking to migrate to Pakistan but unable, had settled around the city. It was an irritant but was ignored. With passage of time, there was an increased north to south movement, with colonies of Kashmiri Muslims, seeking to escape violence, mushrooming around the city. This alongside the increased establishment of mosques began impacting Jammu minds on a planned migration changing demography.

The arrival of Rohingya Moslems into the region increased security concerns and the same was flagged in multiple forums without any response. The BJP which represents the region was losing ground as it could not convince the centre into acting fast.

The Asifa case appears linked to the state government’s directions that no member of the Gujjar-Bakarwal community should be dislocated from forest land, unless the state government puts a tribal policy in place. This was viewed by the locals as an attempt to change demography as these communities come to the Jammu-Samba belt during winters and have been doing so for decades.

Another troublesome factor which has been simmering is the state decision seeking to defend Article 35A in the supreme court. The defence of the state appears to be to ensure that the main article 370 remains unchanged and the demography of the valley is unaffected. Logic defending this action was only announced in speeches in the valley. The Jammu belt is more concerned as many of its locals are married outside the state as also it has residents who migrated from Pak during partition but are not considered state citizens. Its views have never been considered.

The differences within the ruling coalition also appear to be looming large. The BJP members of the government recently refused to endorse the newly announced surrender policy claiming it was paying more to surrendered militants than to those who were killed by militants or in Pak firing. The same BJP felt that the Joint Investigation Team formed by the state to investigate the rape incident had a valley bias and was harassing innocents.

Politically too, the state remains divided. The two main regional parties, NC and PDP, are valley biased. Their intentions have always been to maintain their supremacy in the valley, with whatever additional seats which flow from the Jammu and Ladakh belt are an advantage. The BJP which for the first time obtained an absolute majority in Jammu has been under fire locally for failing to deliver.

The BJP is aware that unless it acts in favour of Jammu, the next elections, including 2019, may witness a reversal, with the revival of the Congress. Hence, some of its members joined the agitation. This has added to tensions within the government. Mehbooba, politically inexperienced, has been unable to hold the coalition together.

The frustration within the government was aptly summed up by Tassaduq Mufti, the brother of J and K Chief Minister, Mehbooba Mufti. He stated in an interview to the Indian Express, ‘The two parties, PDP and BJP, have ended up being partners in a crime for which an entire generation may have to pay.’

Since both parties have their separate regions and thus separate agenda’s, comments by the J and K tourism minister, Naeem Akhtar bear merit, ‘So far nothing has happened for which we can feel proud’. While his reference was solely linked to the valley, the fact remains that each party views its own region of interest and the state suffers.

For a state with such an internal divide, which cannot be easily resolved, the ideal solution could be splitting it into manageable portions, following which governments at the local level could concentrate on development. However, the restrictions imposed by the accession document have ensured that such an action cannot take place.

The rape of Asifa, through brutal and deserving the severest criticism, has opened fissures which for decades have been simmering but brushed under the carpet. While the perpetrators of the crime deserve no mercy and must be punished as per the law of the nation, yet the protests should be a wake-up call to the centre and the state, that religious and regional fissures which have raised their ugly head need to be tackled immediately otherwise more violent incidents can be expected.

The rape was a catalyst for expression of anger by Jammu, which needs to be heard, not defending the rapists as claimed by parts of the media. Politicians of all parties need to set party ideologies aside and work towards strengthening internal bonds, both religious and regional, especially in a border state already facing turmoil, sponsored from across the border. If they fail to open their eyes even now, the state and the nation would bear the brunt and Pak would gain.

Increase in youth joining militancy in Kashmir is worrying ORF 14 Apr 18

The encounter at Shopian last weekend resulted in the death of 13 militants, most of whom were locals. Omar Abdullah tweeted, ‘Is no one in a position of power in Delhi alarmed by this, because I certainly am’. Recent reports indicate a sharp increase in the number of local youth joining militancy in the valley. As per police reports, there is one youth joining militant ranks every third day.

The figure joining militancy in 2017 was 126, a sharp increase from 88 in 2016. This is the highest in the past seven years. The numbers began to increase after the violent summer of 2016, post the elimination of Burhan Wani. From 2010 to 2015 the militancy had very few local militants, mostly dominated and controlled by Pak locals. The only other period with increased local militants was its commencement in the early nineties.

The joining of Junaid Ashraf Khan, a management graduate and son of top separatist leader, Mohammad Ashraf Sehrai, who recently replaced Sayed Ali Shah Geelani as chairman of the Tehreek-e-Hurriyat party will have immense impact. His father claims he joined militancy because he could not tolerate injustice anymore and has refused to ask him to surrender.

This is the first time a close family member of the Hurriyat has openly joined militant ranks. It may motivate those who considered the Hurriyat leadership as being self-serving, keeping their kith and kin well educated and in safe employment, as was the norm with earlier leaders. Even his elimination, which would happen in some time frame, could result in violent protests.

The present lot which joined militant ranks include many who shunned education to pick up the gun. They were aware that they now have limited time. Most of those eliminated in the recent encounter had joined militant ranks just about a year ago. As per police reports while 16 militants have surrendered in recent times, those joining are many more. This new trend is likely to give the militancy a local character, hence the tweet by Omar Abdullah has merit.

In the recent encounter at Anantnag, despite appeals by his parents, Rouf Khanday refused to surrender and was eliminated. As per his father, the family was opposed to violence, however the arrest of Rouf, subsequent incarceration for 45 days during the unrest of 2016 changed him and pushed him into militancy.

His was not the only case of refusing to surrender, others have also been reported in recent times. Parents remain helpless as youth, misguided with the belief that they are fighting for freedom, don militant colours, unaware of the fact that they are being used by self-serving leaders, who understand that freedom would remain a dream. These leaders are being pushed by the Pak deep state, which continues to fund and guide the militancy.

The DG Police of J and K along with senior army and other security officials officially appealed to parents to convince their children to shun the path of violence. He stated, ‘It is painful to all of us to see loss of young life’. They also appealed for locals to avoid encounter sites as there are always possibilities of injuries or death. Even Mehbooba Mufti has regularly made such appeals. These would continue to be repeated at regular intervals, however its impact would remain in doubt as the youth continue being brainwashed.

Multiple reasons have been offered for spurt in youth joining militancy. These include rise of pan-Islamization, religious indoctrination and the employment of strong arm tactics by security forces. In addition, which could possibly be the main reason, is the glorification of militants by the Hurriyat and its followers. The attendance at funerals of large crowds, sloganeering and display of support incites others to follow suit.

What has failed to be realized, mainly by those instigating the youth, that nothing would ever be gained by their actions. No state, irrespective of international or internal pressure, especially India, would ever permit a portion to break away or declare independence, no matter how intense the insurgency is and despite any quantum of international support. The only difference here being that Kashmir has dominated international space, solely due to Pak support and would continue being so.

India fought the Naga insurgency for decades, leading to colossal waste of lives, ultimately ending in a ceasefire. Talks to conclude the same continue. The Mizo insurgency was also controlled and ended in a ceasefire. In both cases there were leaders with whom the centre could negotiate, whereas in Kashmir, the Hurriyat leadership remains adamant as were the Naga and Mizo leaders in the initial phase of the uprising. In Punjab, Pak sponsored militancy was crushed. While the situation was different in each case, the fact remained that the Indian state displayed its determination to succeed.

The incident of stone throwing on tourists, post the Shopian encounter would impact the economy of the state and is clearly sponsored by forces inimical to the nation, whose interest remains in enhancing violence and hiding realities from the public. It is aimed at denying those seeking peace their only means of income forcing them also to come onto the streets, in frustration.

The impacts of a locally dominated militancy would be lack of development in J and K, more loss of lives and harder times for the local population as security forces would be compelled to act. Increased stone throwing to support militants and deny success to security forces would be met by fire, possibly adding to casualties and increased alienation.

The Hurriyat and their Pak backers are aware of the might of the Indian security forces. They also realize that there is no solution when leading by violence. They are also aware that talks with Pak can never happen under the shadow of the gun. However, guided by Pak and its strategy of seeking to bleed India, they follow blindly. In this misconstrued belief, it is the youth which is swayed by the ideals which they project, who become a casualty. The moderates, who have realized that violence would lead them nowhere are forced to remain silent as the movement is currently hijacked by hardliners.

The state is also aware, as all violent insurgencies across the globe have proved, that there would be a turning point. This will come when realization dawns that the violent path selected would never be a solution. It may come sooner or later but would have to. No state could ever allow itself to be divided, irrespective of any number of locals joining militant ranks.

The ultimate solution would internal talks, when the moderates overshadow that hardliners. By then it would have led to many young lives being wasted solely seeking to push forward an agenda which will never succeed.

It is the elders who having witnessed decades of violence realize its futility but are compelled into silence under pressure from the youth. They should be encouraged to lead the way, forcing those instigating the youth to back down and seek a middle path of talks, to come to a solution within the Indian constitution. They will have to ultimately, as it is the only way forward.

In the meanwhile, the state could consider if permitting burials of local militants should continue to be done by his family or by the state as is being followed for Pak militants. The logic is once he has picked the gun, he is an enemy of the state and should be treated as such. This would reduce their glorification which incites other innocents to follow.

More violent struggles than Kashmir have been resolved. This too would. The solution may not come in a day or so, but would ultimately. In the meanwhile, security forces need to operate with care, seeking to avoid unwanted casualties, assisting the locals whenever the need arises, while the state pushes for clean and honest governance alongside development as also limiting occasions where militants are glorified inciting others.

Countering locals joining militancy Rakshak News 05 Apr 18

A recent press report stated that the number of youth joining militancy in 2017 was 126, a sharp increase from 88 in 2016. This was the highest in the last seven years. The figures began to rise after the violent summer of 2016, post the elimination of Burhan Wani. From 2010 to 2015, the militancy had very few local militants, dominated and controlled by Pak locals.

A surprise new entrant into the militant fold has been Junaid Ashraf Khan, a management graduate and son of top separatist leader, Mohammad Ashraf Sehrai, who recently replaced Sayed Ali Shah Geelani as chairman of the Tehreek-e-Hurriyat party. His father claims he joined militancy because he could not tolerate injustice anymore. This is the first time a family member of the Hurriyat has joined militant ranks. It may motivate many more, who considered the Hurriyat leadership as being self-serving, keeping their kith and kin well educated and in safe employment.

This changing trend of increased locals including educated youth joining militants ranks has security forces seeking to develop effective strategies to counter it. Reports mention ideological conviction is much stronger at present than in previous years. There is a rising concern of pan-Islamisation, where youth are choosing the gun fully aware that they risk being eliminated early. Most who join militants ranks survive a few months, while those that live longer are the poster boys, who avoid encounters preferring to remain in the background.

There are multiple reasons being provided for this surge, financial being the least of them. First has been the rising public support to local militants, which has resulted in even attracting youth who are educated and belong to well off families. This support is evident when large numbers have begun attending funerals of local militants. Even the Hurriyat had begun glorifying militancy and using their deaths as political capital. Sayed Geelani had announced the award of a medal, Tamga-e-Azeemat (Medal of greatness) to the slain HM militant Burhan Wani, days after his elimination.

The second has been religious indoctrination. The youth of the valley have been brainwashed by rumours and calls for Jihad from the local pulpits, pushing many into the militant fold. This has led to many even turning to support the ISIS, which has commenced establishing its footprint in the state. In a recent encounter in Anantnag, Mohammed Taufeeq from Telangana was eliminated alongside a local poster boy ISIS supporter, Eisa Fazili. The rise of ISIS alongside other known militant outfits adds a new challenge to the region, as it could incite many from other parts of the country into the area and even those retreating from Syria and Iraq.

The failure of the state to deliver, provide opportunities for employment and clean governance enhances local frustration, pushing youth into militant folds. The youth bulge in the valley, with over sixty percent under the age of thirty adds to the problem. Further, it is this youth, which remains hyper active on social media and is easily influenced. With entertainment avenues missing in the valley, the youth is impacted by propaganda flowing through social media emanating from Pakistan alienating them from the mainstream.

Security agencies are now being compelled to follow a double- edged strategy to handle this growing concern. The first edge is to deter others from joining. This would require closer interaction at lower levels, involving the local civil and police authorities from being more concerned, humane and forthcoming. The state should chip in by enforcing clean and positive governance.

The second is launching Operation All-Out Phase 2. In the first phase last year, security forces eliminated 39 top ranking terrorists including 23 foreign militants, out of a total of 202 killed last year. Presently, they assess 250 militants being active in the valley. The commencement of the operation has already been a success as on Sunday, thirteen terrorists (mostly local) were gunned down in three near simultaneous operations.

As per media reports, a hit list of select militant group leaders has been made, who are the main targets. The thought process is that if these leaders are eliminated, it would deter locals from joining militant ranks as also create confusion in the minds of their cadre and handlers in Pak. More important for security forces is to change their modus-operandi in their manner of operations to reduce collateral damage. This could imply launching operations based on concrete intelligence, with fewer cordon and search operations.

Further, the state should consider whether last rites of slain militants, even locals should continue being performed in their respective villages, as post picking the gun, he is no longer a citizen but an enemy of the state and should be considered as such. This would reduce mass following and inciting others to join the militant fold. The changing environment demands a changing strategy, which the state and security agencies need to evolve together.

An unconsidered surrender policy for militants CENJOWS 27 Mar 2018

There have been differences within the ruling coalition of J and K on the newly proposed surrender policy of the state government. It was blocked by BJP members of the state cabinet after being proposed by Mehbooba Mufti. The J and K government proposed to grant an amount of Rs 6 Lakhs to each surrendered militant along with job schemes. The amount was to be kept in a fixed deposit for ten years and the interest accruing of approximately four thousand per month, was to be given to the surrendered militant as monthly sustenance. After ten years, once confirmed by state security agencies, the amount was to be released to the individual.

There was also a proposal to hike payment for those who hand over weapons, ammunition and explosives. The amount proposed was in cases even three to four times the amount forming part of earlier incentives announced in 2004. For example, for every AK rifle the incentive proposed was fifty thousand as against fifteen thousand in 2004. Similarly, for every pistol it was ten thousand as against three earlier.

The coalition BJP felt that the proposed amount was more than the amount given to those killed either by terrorists or even by Pak shelling or firing, which was five lakhs. Further, the amount earned by the surrendered militant as interest was almost at par with what educated youth were getting under the ‘fixed pay policy’ of the government. The BJP was also concerned that such large grants for valley specific terrorists would impact their hold on the Jammu region, where they were already facing flak on multiple issues.

The intention behind changing a surrender policy needs to be clearly spelt out by the state government. A glance at the amount offered appears to indicate, as per the state government, that youth have taken to guns solely for economic reasons, hence if bribed would change their stance. This view is clearly wrong. In the case of J and K, picking the gun is either due to strong religious sentiments, motivation through Pak based handlers or influence by local militants. Lack of employment opportunities has very limited impact. Hence, high financial motives alone may not be the answer.

Further surrender policies should not be akin to the forgiving stone thrower policy, wherein all court cases against stone throwers was withdrawn, thus giving them the freedom to continue the same with impunity. Most surrender policies have earlier failed, the reasons for which have never been analysed by the state, hence announcing another one may only provide publicity but is doomed to fail.

Surrender policies have been in vogue in J and K from the nineties. The first policy of early nineties was replaced by one in 1997. Subsequently there were two more. One was announced for local militants in 2004, which is being modified at present, and another for local militants but residents of POK, in 2010. Surrenders have occurred, but due too the nature of militancy, many reverted back. Militancy in J and K is Pak sponsored and led generally by Pak militants, who have no respect for local citizens, hence act severely on those who surrender. In other Indian insurgencies, while external support remains, militants are state residents and have hardly targeted those who surrender.

The most notable period of surrenders in J and K was in 1995, when many locals quit Pak supported militant organizations such as the HM because of mindless killings of locals. They were initially drafted into the Ikhwan force as the pro-government militia, supported and paid for by security forces. In the initial phases, the Ikhwan force was effective and helped identify wanted militants. Their contribution in bringing down militancy levels has been acknowledged. With passage of time, they became a law unto themselves and started dishing out their own brand of justice. They thus ended up becoming a major law and order issue and court cases against them continue to date.

As per a newspaper report of Dec 2007, over four thousand militants had surrendered till then since the commencement of insurgency. Most surrendered militants for varying reasons, including pressure from security agencies or threats from their foreign handlers and comrades, went back to militant ranks. This was most noticeable during the ceasefire declared by security forces in Nov 2000. Thus, inviting surrenders is not a major issue for the state government, but creating a viable surrender policy to manage those who lay down their arms is. Surrenders since then has been negligible.

The major reason of failure of earlier policies was the terms of surrender and subsequent interrogation and harassment by the local police. The policy insisted months of interrogation at the joint interrogation centre, prior to being released. In addition, the sops offered by the state failed to be implemented at the grassroot levels. In the earlier policy too, the amount offered was to be deposited in a bank and interest provided to the militant. Corruption and demands for bribes at every stage impacted those who surrendered. Their rehabilitation was also a shoddy affair, disillusioning most.

Surrendering of militants is a double-edged sword. It gives good publicity to the government and security forces, while is detrimental for militant groups morale. When surrenders increase, militant groups would commence targeting surrendered militants as they did in the nineties, seeking to pull back those who laid down their weapons. Countering this becomes more important.

In case the government is serious in its desire to enhance surrenders, enhancing funds is not the answer. Every militant would be facing court cases for waging war against the state. Dropping court cases may provide some relief, but more important is to ensure their protection from militant groups which they have chosen to discard. Thus, they need to be moved away from militant affected areas and news of surrenders kept under wraps till they are secure. The announcement should only be done once he is secure and security agencies are convinced that he has done so in good faith and his surrender is not a ploy.

At the same time, a high surrender package is also detrimental to enticing surrenders. In Assam, most joined militancy for short durations, seeking to gain state government benefits including financial packages. The system failed and many who surrendered have yet to receive their dues. The same, if adopted in J and K, would add to the difficulties of security agencies, rather than being beneficial.

Thus, rather than providing high financial benefits, employment within the state, away from his home base would be more lucrative. Security agencies have already classified militants in categories based on their involvement in operations. Therefore, security agencies should be responsible to exonerate militants, prior to being offered state benefits. Financial benefits can be offered based on classification of militants.

State police forces have faced the brunt of militancy. Hence, mentally conditioning local police forces against harassment of surrendered militants assumes importance. In earlier surrender offers, continuous harassment and pressure, pushed many back into the fold of militancy. If successfully integrated into the system they could be employed as motivators, to entice those still wielding the gun.

Surrendering of militants gives security forces the upper hand, while wooing them back into the group which they discarded benefits militant organizations. It is a battle of wits, which needs careful monitoring at state level and security of those who have accepted government offers. Money alone is not the answer, which could also become a negative factor. What is more important is sincerity of security agencies in supporting the move, especially the local police, which has borne the brunt of militant actions. In addition is the importance of ensuring a sound rehabilitation policy.

Mehbooba calls for talks The Excelsior 22 Feb 18

Post the Sunjuwan attack, Mehbooba Mufti asked the government of India to initiate talks with Pakistan. She even stated in the state assembly, ‘If Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti say talk to Pakistan, they are dubbed anti-nationals. There is no alternative except by holding talks’. She went on to add, ‘we have fought three wars, 1947, 1965 and 1971 and have won all of them, even the Kargil war, but our basic problem (Kashmir) has not been resolved’.

Her concerns may be genuine, but they are far from reality. The fact is that till militancy reigns in the state, development would be impacted. Further security forces would continue to dominate domestic policies. Historically too, it has always been India which has taken the first step forward for talks only to be rebuked or forced to retreat. Every government in Delhi has sought to initiate peace, with Pakistan, as soon as it assumes office, but has never been able to proceed forward. Thus, her statements may make good logic, but remains unrealistic.

The nearest opportunity that India had on resolving Kashmir was post 1971 operations, when it held over 93000 Pak prisoners. It missed this opportunity for reasons never clearly documented. Such an opportunity is unlikely to ever return.

For Pakistan, Kashmir is essential. Over the years it has created a hype within the nation and externally that unless it regains Kashmir, it cannot rest. Its continuous raising of it on international platforms is an indicator of this fact. Three wars have been fought, thousands of lives sacrificed on both sides, yet Kashmir remains an illusion in their minds, which they refuse to give up. They have also realized that a war would never give them victory, hence need to change tack.

They have thus resorted to adopting to the terrorism model as also funding separatists, hoping to create an internal uprising, which could pave the way for its amalgamation into their nation. India would never allow this to happen, irrespective of cost, hence Kashmir would remain unresolved. The only sufferers would be the locals, an aspect which few are willing to understand. With a Hindu dominated BJP government at the centre and hard line religious views in the valley, the distance is only increasing, which benefits Pakistan.

Hence, when Mufti spoke this week at Kund in Kulgam district asking youth to shun the path of violence she was very correct. Her statement, ‘If you pick up one gun, 1000 guns are ready to fight you back. I came to tell you that militancy will yield nothing.’ Unless the youth understand that violence would only beget violence and peace would enhance development, the state would continue to reel under the might of security forces.

Even if her suggestion for talks are to be considered, there are immense roadblocks. No nation would ever consider suggesting talks from a position of weakness. In the Indo-Pak case, until the militancy is under control and Pak army is kept subdued by heavy retaliation, it is India in a position of strength, unacceptable to the Pak army. If terrorist strikes are on the rise and India proposes for talks, then it is the other way around. This seesaw state would never enable talks to proceed. It would as previously be scuttled before any tangible progress is ever made.

Further, for Pak, the current situation suits them the best. Militants, who are akin to cannon fodder, whose losses are easily acceptable to Pak are causing damage to Indian forces, they have no desire to engage in talks. Local Kashmiri’s participating in stone pelting and losing lives has again no impact on Pak. Thus, for them talks could impose restrictions on their current operations, hence they are unwilling.

India remains in a bind. It escalates employing soldiers, lives of everyone is precious. It also battles militants employing them. Each attack, each loss of life, hurts the nation. For Pak, it is the other way around. It refuses to accept even the bodies of its militants, families of whom would never know what happened to their kin. Kashmiri’s killed are only exploited by Pak diplomatically and internally to seek more cannon fodder. There has and would never be genuine concern. Protests against their handling of POK and Gilgit Baltistan are proof of a Punjabi Pakistan dominating minorities and exploiting them.

In this context, it would be better and more prudent to initiate talks within Kashmir, seeking a solution, rather than with Pak. For this to happen all valley political parties need to put aside their differences and work together, within the gambit of the Indian constitution. They need to spread the message to the masses on the true intentions of Pak and the damage it has caused to the state. They need to convince the locals to rise against militancy if they desire to witness the growth of the region. It is only when the local population is made to understand, the way Mehbooba is attempting, would progress be made.

Farooq and Omar should seek to join hands with Mehbooba and work for the betterment of the valley, rather than seeking to divide it or ignite internal fire by blaming everyone, but themselves. No single party or force can change the character of the valley, it would have to be a combined action. With the Pak proxy separatists slowly being side lined, this is the moment.

The above may sound utopian, however unless sense prevails and the desire to rise above temporary political gains is engrained in the minds of local politicians, Kashmir would remain on the boil, with losses on all sides. The sad state is that in India, it is political gains first and the nation/ state and its people last. Can valley politicians take the lead and change it? If they desire to, interacting with the interlocutor is the first step.

Countering the FIR against the army in Kashmir (English Version) Rakshak News 15 Feb 18

Post the Shopian firing incident, in retaliation to stone pelting, resulting in two deaths, the state lodged an FIR against army personnel including the officer who was leading the convoy, even though the officer was not present at the scene of the incident. The mob attempted to snatch army weapons and even tried to lynch the JCO leading the convoy, resulting in the firing.

The father of the officer named in the FIR, filed a petition against the state in the Supreme Court, challenging the FIR. Simultaneously, a few army brats (children of army personnel) have approached the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) seeking equal rights and protection for security personnel involved in operations in the valley. The supreme court has stayed the FIR and sought a reply from the state and centre.

Many have argued that the FIR is only a means of investigation and not a charge against the army. However, the fact that they are solely being investigated and not those who commenced the stone throwing, resulting in the ensuing firing in self-defence, has caused anger within the nation. Self-defence, apart from being protected by AFSPA is also legal under the CPC. This clearly is an indication of the bias against the army with the state leadership seeking to gain political mileage from the incident.

There were initial reports of a counter FIR filed by the army, which was subsequently cleared to imply that the army’s version was noted in the same FIR. The army is there for a task, not to indulge in hurting local sentiments. It cannot be involved in handling legal issues, when evidence of damaged vehicles, injured soldiers and stone littered streets are easily available as evidence. If the army had opened fire first, there would have been no such evidence, as the crowd would have dispersed, without pelting a single stone. This is clearly indicative of their retaliating to provocations.

The question which arises is why the father of the officer and army brats should approach the courts and the NHRC, which should have been done by the MoD and the army themselves. The army is not deployed in anti-militancy tasks of its own choosing. AFSPA is in force because other security agencies could not control the situation and desired the deployment of the army, the ultimate power of the state. Even Mehbooba Mufti announced recently in the J and K assembly that the time is not right for lifting AFSPA. It is known that the army would never open fire, unless targeted and once it does, it fires for effect at select ring leaders.

The action by the state government was clearly aimed at impacting army morale, while assuaging locals who were involved. The fact that the state government has withdrawn all charges against the thousands involved in stone pelting would only give the youth further incentive to act, knowing that they would never be charged. It would also enable the Hurriyat to incite more with even less monetary offers, as they are certain that no legal action would be taken against them.

The claims by the local public that those killed or injured were not pelting stones but were bystanders is again illogical. Stone throwing is not akin to a sporting event which the public watches from ring side seats. The army targets those who are at the forefront of the action, hence specific individuals.

The state government has openly demonstrated that though it desires the army to operate, it would remain biased against it and support its own. The silence of the centre and the army authorities on the issue forced the father and other army brats to seek legal support. While the nation has welcomed the supreme court’s decision, however the silence of the MoD and senior army officials would impact morale of those serving in the region. It is time that the army releases its version of the incident to the nation, clarifying its stand and defending those who were targeted.

The paradoxes of Kashmir The Statesman 13 Feb 18

The recent decision of the J and K state government to condone stone throwers, many of whom were habitual offenders, while charging army personnel, who were victims of stone throwing and opened fire in self-defence, in an FIR, is the latest confused news emanating from the valley. Photographs of damaged vehicles, injured army personnel and littered stones were ignored. Had the army opened fire first, there would have been no stone pelting. They were perpetrators of the crime, since they possessed weapons, despite their presence there, not on free will, but to perform a task. The father of the officer named in the FIR, along with a few army brats were compelled to approach the Supreme Court and NHRC to quash the FIR as also consider human rights of security personnel. The paradox of Kashmir.

Last year, Major Gogoi was targeted because he tied one individual to his jeep, to move out security personnel trapped by a mob inside a polling booth. His action saved lives of both, security personnel, whom he was rescuing and civilians who would have suffered if he opened fire. He was accused of violating human rights. His opening of fire may have been justified, since it was in self-defence. In the recent incident soldiers fired in self-defence and have been hauled up for the same. Hence, if you don’t fire, you violate human rights, if you fire, you are charged. The paradox of Kashmir.

The Hurriyat abuses the national leadership and praises Pakistan. It is aware of the suffering of the people of POK and Gilgit-Baltistan yet demands freedom of Kashmir from India. It instigates youth into violence, burns educational institutes, while their children study in safe locations. It is known to be involved in Hawala transactions and procuring property way beyond their means. Clearly anti-national elements. Yet the opposition claims they represent the masses and should be engaged in dialogue, as also are given security protection and funds from the government. The paradox of Kashmir.

Pakistan is responsible for maximum violence within the state. Its proxies are the Hurriyat. It is well known that Pak openly sponsors terror groups which target not only security forces but also locals. It is the violence generated by Pak, which has ensured that the state remains under developed and causes maximum economic loss to locals. Yet state political parties insist that government talk to Pakistan, which is clearly unwilling. The paradox of Kashmir.

The youth pelt stones and seek bandhs and strikes when locals are killed in either cross fires during encounters or stone throwing. There is no word against the same militants when they kill innocent Kashmiri policemen, politicians or on leave service personnel. Locals display Pak flags during the funeral of killed militants but remain silent when Pak guns target their own state brethren along the LoC. The paradox of Kashmir.

The locals demand azadi, which in their opinion is freedom from India. They seek a separate state, independent from both India and Pak. However, in all protests, they display Pak flags ignoring their own state flag. They continue to support Pak, despite it officially claiming that freedom would never be given. The paradox of Kashmir.

All either injured or killed in retaliation to stone throwing or in cross fire during encounters are claimed to be bystanders. This leaves the rational Indian wondering if stone throwing or an encounter is akin to a soccer match which could be observed from the side lines. Security forces target ring leaders at the forefront, not spectators in the background. Everyone who has been injured or killed was supposedly out on an errand and unjustly targeted. Locals claim that they could never harm anyone yet were at the forefront of the agitation. This only happens in Kashmir. The paradox of Kashmir.

Article 35A had the opposition NC and the ruling PDP combining to battle it together in the supreme court. Speeches by their leaders against the article were only given in the valley. Farooq went on to threaten on the possible scale of violence which would erupt, in case the article was tampered. Surprisingly, these political parties are meant to represent the state, not just a miniscule portion of it. The views of Jammu and Ladakh were not even considered. It is only in J and K, that the party which rules the state appears to support only a part of it. The paradox of Kashmir.

The army has borne the brunt of local anger, yet established good will schools, conducted tours for locals outside the state to give them a better exposure and provides medical aid in remote areas. It has greater visibility and contact than even the state government in remote areas. It is more aware of the happenings within the state than anyone else. Yet it is considered an occupying force and the advice of the army chief on education impacting the youth is rebuked by the state government. The paradox of Kashmir.

The recent incident when a LeT militant, Naved was freed in the Srinagar hospital was viewed as Pak attacking a hospital, rather than a failure on the part of the police, which moved him without being handcuffed to at least one policeman. In any other state, necks would have rolled immediately. In J and K, it took a week. The paradox of Kashmir.

Thousand attend funerals of militants, who target their own, exploit their women and rob their banks. However, only a handful attend funerals of local police and security personnel who sacrificed their lives for their security. The paradox of Kashmir.

The government provide maximum assistance to the state, mainly to wean the masses towards the country. In simplistic terms, the tax paid by the common Indian is spent on making the lives of Kashmiri’s better. Yet, there is only anger and hatred against the nation and its taxpayers, on whose largesse they live. The ultimate paradox from the region of paradoxes, Kashmir.

Why is the army becoming a target in Kashmir? Daily O 30 Jan 18

The recent incident in Shopian, Kashmir, when the army opened fire to disperse stone pelters who were seeking to lynch army personnel accompanying a convoy and burn their vehicles, resulting in the death of two civilians has dominated headlines. The police, on the orders of the state government, registered an FIR against a Major accompanying the convoy and one more, leading to a political debate and national outrage. The DGP J and K, on the other hand, claimed that no one specific had been named in the FIR and that the case would be investigated prior to arriving at a conclusion.

It again brought to fore the political differences between the BJP and PDP, the ruling partners in the state and between the government and opposition. Kashmir based political parties blamed the army, while the BJP supported it. Further, it refuelled the debate of continuation of AFSPA, a statement against which was recently made by the army chief. The separatists who had lost all support and were battling for survival and legitimacy suddenly got ammunition to reclaim some space.

Mehbooba Mufti, the Chief Minister did not waste time after hearing of the incident and immediately called the defence minister to complain. Her comments that such incidents would push back the situation, which had shown a remarkable improvement were unjust and made in haste. She claimed that she had instructed the army to fire in the air, instead of on the protestors, ignoring that the army, as an instrument of last resort is neither the police nor the CAPFs which are trained to disperse mobs. They are trained to act and fire for effect, which unless they do, would render their control and task of being the ultimate element of power of the nation meaningless.

It is time for serious soul searching on what could have led to the incident and whether it was avoidable.

A convoy of vehicles moving in the area inadvertently got split and a few vehicles entered a village in Shopian. This was the same village where a few days ago, two militants were eliminated. The villagers anger was apparently taken out on this column. Whether they were instigated, or it was a spontaneous action, only further investigation would determine. They attempted to grab weapons, lynch a JCO who was a part of the escort and burn vehicles. Seven soldiers were injured in the process, compelling the escort to open fire in self-defence, which in this case was also permissible under the IPC. This led to casualties.

Some aspects, being ignored in the political battle which followed need to be placed in the right perspective. The column was moving towards its destination and hence had no reason to commence firing. The mob was initially about hundred strong, which swelled to two hundred in a short while. Photographs of damaged vehicles, doing the rounds indicate that they were distinctly attacked.

The fact that there were two fatal casualties indicated that despite strong provocation, they only responded with minimum force. If they had opened fire indiscriminately or in panic, the casualties may have been much more. Had they not acted, it would have set a precedence for the valley in the future and similar incidents would be attempted. It would also give a boost to Pak and their proxies and headlines in Pak would have indicated the failure of the Indian army.

Loss of army lives to rioting mobs, especially when they have the right of self-defence and are armed is akin to surrender and is unacceptable within the army. It would have been a blot, which would remain for decades. Secondly, akin to the Gogoi incident, there was no reaction time to contemplate and move away from the mob. It was the training and cool response, targeting the ring leaders which saved further casualties. Like the Gogoi incident, the relatives of the casualties would claim that they were innocent bystanders witnessing stone throwing and not participants, which again is nothing but a joke.

The irony of the aftermath was the state government seeking to file an FIR against the army to gain a few local brownie points. They remain aware of the fact that the army responded, did not instigate. There should logically have been a magisterial inquiry to determine the circumstances leading to the firing, as is prevalent across the nation, FIRs being subsequent action. It appears that the army has been caught in the political slugfest between the PDP and the NC, as also disagreements within the ruling coalition of the PDP and BJP. The message being conveyed is clear, make the army the scapegoat, while PDP attempts to woo the masses.

While stone throwing could have been spontaneous, instigation by anti-national elements cannot be ruled out. In recent times, Shopian has witnessed increasing incidents of terrorism. There have been reports of snatching of weapons from police personnel and killing of political activists in the region. The army has repeatedly, over the last year, launched large scale anti-terror operations in this region. Hence, spotting a separated convoy, may have provided some to instigate others to resort to violence.

Simultaneous has been the demand by valley based political parties, desperate to gain additional votes demanding roll back of AFSPA. The comments by the army chief stating that this is not the time to do so was criticized by many quarters, including in an editorial in The Statesman. Few realize, outside the military environment, that the soldiers battling Pak sponsored terrorists are doing so with severe restrictions on use of force, solely to save civilian casualties, however losing more of their own. No other nation places such immense restrictions on its armed forces. AFSPA is an enabling act, not complete immunity as the soldiers can be brought to book by the sanction of the centre and it has been done.

Politicians should grow beyond short term views and look at the broader picture. The Indian army is there to protect and secure the nation, not target its own. It never does so, unless compelled by circumstances and attacked first. Let us leave politics aside, quit questioning the comments of the chief and stand by the army, as it battles multiple threats, which we as a nation face. Targeting the army to gain votes would harm national security and those who place their lives on the limb for it daily.

Peace in J and K remains fragile (English Version) Rakshak News 30 Jan 18

The recent incident in which an isolated part of an army administrative column came under stone pelting, attempted burning of vehicles and snatching of a weapon as also near lynching of a JCO in Shopian, resulted in the army opening fire in self-defence. It led to two deaths and a few injured. The CM, Mehbooba Mufti immediately called the defence minister claiming the such actions by the army would push back the results achieved so far. It gave an opportunity to the Hurriyat to attempt to regain the initiative by calling for a bandh.

There has been positive progress in the valley since the burning summer of 2016. The initiative which had been passed into the hands of the separatists and Pak sponsored militants was slowly reclaimed. The security forces speed and rate of elimination of militants pushed them on the backfoot and on the run. Indian army gained ascendency along the LoC. Demonetization made fake and hawala currency ineffective in the valley, reducing the ability of the separatists to purchase violence.

The NIA investigating multiple cases of money laundering and hawala, resulted in some separatists being arrested. Their confessions are moving the top leadership close to incarceration. Thus, as 2017 was concluding, there was normalcy returning, enabling the government to appoint an interlocutor as also announce Panchayat elections for mid-February.

Incidents like the recent one in Shopian is an indicator of rogue elements seeking to re-ignite fires of violence to push back any progress made by the state and centre. Whether they were acting at the behest of separatists or had militant ranks within them instigating the public, is difficult to judge. The fact remains, that incidents can always happen. Assuming one incident can set progress made back into time is wrong.

The announcement of Panchayat polls by the government would have rattled Pak and the separatists and compelled them to resort to desperate action to reignite the valley and block the political process. Further peace in the region is anathema to their plans, hence they would have desired to instigate violence.

The hasty action by Mehbooba Mufti in calling the defence minister to complain is providing fodder to anti-national elements. An impartial inquiry involving all agencies would determine what led to a crowd suddenly commence targeting an administrative column which was peacefully transiting. If there were errors, then these could be rectified for the future. The army would never have opened fire unless provoked, it never has. Further, the army never uses pellet guns nor batons, it is the instrument of last resort and uses its operational weapons.

Incidents would always occur, especially as the state is transiting through challenging times. The ability of good governance is to reclaim control and turn an adverse situation to advantage, rather than blame those agencies which sacrifice their lives daily to enhance order. One incident should never be considered adverse, despite casualties. It may set the clock back, but for a limited time in a small region, not across the valley. Mehbooba needs to act to reclaim control and continue with the planned Panchayat polls and stop blaming the army.

Mehbooba is partially right The Excelsior 06 Dec 17

Mehbooba Mufti, stated while addressing the passing out parade of the J and K police in Kathua recently, that merely eliminating militants will not wipe out militancy, it needs a more humane approach. This statement of Mufti comes close on the heels of her government announcing cancelling of court cases against first time stone throwers. It also comes soon after security forces touched the magic figure of eliminating two hundred militants this year.

The impact of security forces operations is the state regaining initiative in the region, resulting in the appointment of an interlocutor on behalf of the government. The interlocutor’s increased interactions with groups and individuals, even in the interiors of the state, is an indicator of the changing narrative. He would not have been able to meet and obtain views of such a variety, had it not been for the changing security situation. Slowing down at this stage would give the militants the break they desperately need, hence should be avoided. A humane approach needs to be based on the nature of militancy in the state.

Militants in J and K come in two distinct categories. The first are those pushed in from Pak, who have no option of returning, despite any collection of promises made to them while being hired, trained and then subsequently infiltrated. Exfiltration is nigh impossible, surrender is hardly an option, hence they seek to survive on local resources and engage security forces, till as long as possible. They must be eliminated, as they neither have a home nor hearth and would always remain a threat. Calls to surrender has no meaning and should not even be considered as an option.

The next variety are home grown militants, who have been lured by the glamour of the gun. A few are diehard fanatics, while most are social media militants, who have joined the ranks to gain a name and reputation. Social media militants rarely engage security forces, prefer living in the safety and security of their home regions, secure that any action by security forces would invite protests and stone throwing, enabling their escape. They are ill-trained, ill-equipped and carry the gun to enhance local standing and settle personal disputes. They are known to attack soft targets like security personnel on leave, out of favour politicians and lobbing grenades from a distance.

The diehard local militants need to be eliminated thus discouraging others from following their steps, while social media militants must be given a chance to surrender and join the mainstream. If they fail to accept governments offers, then there is no option except elimination. The offer of surrender being made to them is warning enough and as humane as security forces can be.

A humane approach is only feasible, if the militant indicates a desire to surrender. In a democracy, anyone who chooses violence as a means of protest, especially picking up a gun, to challenge the authority of the state, is an enemy of the state, hence needs to be treated as such. The shorter the life span of a militant, the more would be appeals for surrender from his family. This has resulted in surrenders earlier and would in the future also.

The success of the security forces is visible in the manner that no longer are parents proud of the fact that their child has picked up the gun, but desire his surrender, knowing his elimination is around the corner. Thus, relentless operations, as being undertaken in the present, should continue unabated, despite Mufti’s comments on the contrary.

The decision of the centre and state to spare first time stone throwers is a welcome step, though security forces have been disappointed. Most were enticed with easy availability of money to participate. As the changed environment indicates, even confirmed on multiple occasions by the DGP of the state, stone throwing has become rare and very localized. This proves that it was money which enticed them, not the cause. Thus, those who indulged in it, during the burning summer of 2016 and prior on the lure of money need to be given one more chance. Most would realize their mistake and avoid repeating it again.

Many indulging in stone throwing suffered, while those who instigated them hid in the background. There are however known offenders, who have been identified on CCTV cameras, repeatedly participating in stone throwing, who deserve no sympathy. Sparing them is opening doors for either joining militancy or re-instigating youth to participate in the same. They need to be locked up.

A humane approach by security forces could come in a variety of different fields. It could come in assisting surrenders, protecting those who lay down their arms, reduced harassment to those who surrender and not harassing the kin of present militants. Simultaneous could be reduced classical cordon and search operations, security checks on the roads and minimum harassment to residents.

With the control of the region again back into the folds of the state, it is government machinery, which should become more visible, thus reducing responsibilities of security forces, in resolving local problems. Local political groups and politicians should become more involved in development. The state must simultaneously implement a sound surrender policy, ensuring that surrendered militants neither become a target of their earlier outfits nor the promises made are unfulfilled. Success of the first few surrenders would invite many more, failure to ensure their security would deter others. Hence humane approach must flow from the state machinery, rather than security forces.

Security forces can only be humane to a level, as their tasks remains clear, eliminate militancy from the region. The state, by increasing its reach and control needs to be humane and caring for its population. Ultimately, it is a stick and carrot approach, stick by the forces and carrot by the state. Both need to operate in tandem, if militancy needs to be eliminated.

Why Kashmir needs much more than surrender appeals ORF 24 Nov 17

Majid Khan, a twenty- year old footballer from Anantnag, who had recently joined the LeT, surrendered last weekend. He was paraded in a press conference with the police claiming that a relentless campaign on social media, based on an appeal by his mother, compelled him to surrender. The army even announced that there would be no charges against him and he would be free, in addition to it supporting his further studies. Post Majid’s surrender, there are reports of one more youth having shunned the path of violence. The police and army are now making a bid seeking more surrenders, aiming to draw local youth away from the clutches of militancy.

This is not the first time that surrenders have occurred in militancy affected areas. Assam and other North-Eastern states witnessed many surrenders, so did J and K in the past. The J and K government had multiple surrender policies, which kept being modified with time. There was one in the early nineties, followed by another in 1997. Subsequently two more were announced. The first in 2004 was for militants belonging to the state, the second in 2010 for Kashmiri militants residing in Pak, who wanted to return. All had some response. While many surrendered militants in J and K went back into militancy, those from Assam and other North-Eastern states did not. Where was the difference?

Mainly it was the nature of militancy. Eastern militants were local youth and had no infiltrators heading militant groups, though It had support from forces inimical to Indian interests. Hence there were limited threats and killing of surrendered militants. Every surrendered militant was expected to receive a grant from the state government, in addition to recognition by means of an identity card. Surrendered militants even conduct their own conference in Assam, the last Prakton ULFA Samanoy Sammelon (Conference of former ULFA cadres), being held in May this year at Digboi, Assam.

In the conference, Bijoy Hazarika, the secretary, stated that of at least ten thousand surrendered cadres, over seven thousand five hundred former cadres, who had shunned violence between 1998 to 2005 have yet to get any government aid, nor has the government withdrawn cases against them.

The CM of Manipur, N Biren Singh, referring to the case of surrendered groups in his state, stated in Delhi, in May this year, that the surrender policy designed for militants was a total failure. He said, ‘It is disappointing that there is no proper supervision over the outfits which have joined the mainstream. This has rendered the surrender policy meaningless.’

In J and K, there were reasonable surrenders in the past. In 1995, many local militants quit militia organizations like the HM because of mindless killings. Ex militia were offered lucrative rehabilitation packages by the state and centre. The centre also created the Ikhwan force, as a pro-government militia, comprising of surrendered militants. They were paid and supported by Indian security agencies. Between 1994-98 pro-government militants became an extremely potent weapon in the counter insurgency campaign. They helped security forces identify wanted militants and even dealt their own brand of justice, resulting in court cases running even presently. Many also contested the 1996 elections.

Their own security remained questionable thus houses and family members of the Ikhwan were targeted by Pak supported militants. Post the government declaring a ceasefire in Nov 2000, militants began regaining the upper hand. It is rumoured that approximately one hundred and fifty Ikhwani members and police informers were eliminated during the ceasefire and as per police sources, over five hundred Ikhwanis or those working with them, re-joined militant ranks. A pro-government militant leader, Papa Kishtwari, even stated, ‘Half of my boys who were promised decent jobs and security have re-joined militancy’. The government failed in delivering its promises. The Ikhwan founder, Mohamed Yusuf, also known as Kuka Parrey, was also gunned down in Sept 2003.

Vide a newspaper report of Dec 2007, over four thousand militants had surrendered since the commencement of militancy in the valley till then. However, there were no serious efforts to enforce a policy to handle surrendered militants. In the early nineties the surrender policy implied that each militant on surrender was entitled 1.5 lakh in cash and gainful employment. Subsequently, the policy was modified depending on the ground situation. Militants had to surrender before the police, spend two months in the joint interrogation centre and report to the nearest police station once a week. Many were unwilling claiming harassment.

Subsequently, the state cabinet vide its decision no 96/10 of 24 Apr 1997, accorded sanction for implementing state employment schemes for surrendered militants. Under this scheme banks were instructed to finance the setting up of micro/small units covering industrial and private sectors to be run by surrendered militants. Banks refused to implement the scheme, fearing losses and it failed, leaving surrendered militants disappointed and angry.

On 24 Feb 2009, the Union Minister of State for Home gave a reply in the Lok Sabha, where he stated that surrendered militants were being provided Rs 2000 per month for three years and the amount of 1.5 Lakh given as initial payment was invested in a fixed deposit, to be withdrawn after a period of three years, based on good behaviour of the surrendered militant. However, there was growing unrest amongst the surrendered militants as the government failed to fulfil its commitment to rehabilitate them suitably. An article in Kashmir Life, in Oct 2013, stated that surrendered militants who had crossed from Pakistan claimed that they were even denied basic documents like ration and identity cards and many returned to join militant ranks.

Security forces, based on government directions have relaunched calls for surrender from local militants. While it has begun showing results, however the question arises, how prepared is the state and its agencies to implement surrender policies and rehabilitate surrendered militants. Leaving them without court cases may not alone be the answer, as pressure and threats from militant groups to re-join may remain. Hence, an important action for the government is to ensure security for the surrendered militant and his family. Failing to do so, may compel him to re-join his earlier cadre, fearing reprisals. For militant groups surrendering of its ranks is loss of face, while for security forces it is a success. Hence both sides would attempt to gain the upper hand.

Presently, there is complete domination by security forces and militants are on the run. This in itself is good news. Reports of daily encounters and culling of militants by security forces would impact those seeking to join militant ranks, as locals, untrained and ill equipped, would find it difficult to survive for long, as has been amply proved. This could compel them to turn to softer targets like surrendered cadres.

Hence, the government must contemplate taking a few steps to ensure that militants who surrender are not coerced into returning into the militant fold. Firstly, they should be moved out of the district or if possible the region, to reset their lives in a different environment. Secondly, the government must implement its financial package as early as possible, as most have joined militancy for financial gains. Thirdly, harassment by security forces by monitoring their activities should be the minimum, as excessive harassment would force them to return. Fourthly, they could be employed as motivators in the media for others. Finally, gainful employment at an early stage would deter them from joining militant ranks and encourage others to surrender. These policies need to be officially announced and strictly monitored by the centre, for not only J and K, but other militancy affected states.

Sincerity by the government and security agencies if visible and genuine would go a long way in reducing fresh recruits from picking the gun and encouraging those with it to surrender. If government actions are slow, then irrespective of the goodwill generated by security forces, surrenders would be miniscule.

Farooq Abdullah’s comments on Kashmir must be ignored Daily O 21 Nov 17

Post the announcement of Dineshwar Sharma as the centre’s interlocutor for Kashmir, there have been a series of contradictory comments emanating from the region only adding to the existing confusion. Comments are more political, seeking either to support the centre’s decision or counter it, based on the ideology of the party. In some cases, the statements are rhetoric and on expected lines.

The separatists have spoken as expected, rejecting all offers. It was but natural, as they have become accustomed to take the best from the Indian state and money through hawala from Pakistan. Their loyalties remain with Pakistan; hence they akin to parrots have been stating on every occasion, talk to Pakistan. They demand azadi, but fail to utter a word when the Pak PM, Abbasi, comments that autonomy, way below azadi, to Kashmir is impossible and unacceptable.

However, there are indicators that the pressure flowing from the ongoing investigations by the NIA and ED, leaving the second rung and the kith and kin of the top leadership behind bars, would bring about a volte face. It may not bring them to the bargaining table, as they fear wrath from across the border, but would soften their stand and representatives from the second rung would be deputed to interact.

Confusion has also been created by Jitendra Singh, the MOS in the PMO, who stated that the talks are not anything new and the centre was always involved in talks. He was referring to the two visits to the valley undertaken by the Home Minister, Rajnath Singh. The CM, Mehbooba Mufti, has welcomed the appointment, while mentioning that azadi as demanded by a section of the student community, is without any bias.

Most controversial and contradicting comments have been made by Farooq Abdullah. Farooq is a seasoned politician, who has seen ups and downs in political life, however, the present is a major test. Politically his National Conference (NC) leadership faces a daunting task. In case peace is restored in the valley, the present combination of the PDP and BJP would stand to gain, moving NC into the wilderness. The BJP has slowly begun making inroads into the valley adding to their worries.

Farooq nearing eighty, has little hopes for a rebound in politics. His earlier desperate game of seeking the Vice President’s post fell through, hence he remains a MP from a party with almost no say at the centre. Speaking against the government’s interlocutor could backfire in case others go along, whereas supporting him is equally risky. Hence, there is a variety in the comments which have emanated from him.

He has claimed that borders cannot be changed, POK and Kashmir, would remain with countries that hold them. He has also stated that all provisions and acts implemented post 1953 be withdrawn, thus demanding complete autonomy for the state. In addition, he has mentioned that Kashmir as an independent nation (azadi) cannot survive, because it is surrounded by three powerful nuclear armed countries and hence his party has never demanded it. He retweeted the Hurriyat when he stated that India should also talk to Pakistan. In fact, realistically, these are the very issues which NC would hope to raise with the interlocutor, however, rather than talking to him, are raising them in a public forum.

The issues raised by Farooq need to be analysed in the political context in which he spoke. Most of his comments were in public rallies, hence he was neither disputed nor asked to justify his reasons. He has conveyed that azadi was neither an option, nor would ever be one, which brought a sharp response from the Hurriyat, leading to a war of words between Omar and them. The same ever-contradicting Farooq had stated last year, during the peak of the agitation, that their party is not against the Hurriyat and would provide them full support to ‘take the movement for azadi to its conclusion’.

While referring to non-change of borders, he was re-stating what had often been on the cards as additional confidence building measures between the two countries. Suggestions were abounding earlier, that one measure of building confidence was, opening the borders between the two parts of Kashmir, thus enhancing people to people contacts. However, never has India or Pakistan ever ceded the portion held by the other. It was again twisting facts.

The removal of all acts and provisions post 1953, was a comment made for local consumption. He is very much aware that it was his father, Sheikh Abdullah, who had in 1975 implemented the DD Thakur committee recommendations and legitimized acceptance of central laws. He is also aware that neither the acts or laws would be revoked nor withdrawn. In addition, any Indian is aware that talks with Pak imply nothing, unless their deep state grants the Pak government permission to move ahead. Every time talks have been planned a terrorist act sets the clock back.

His accusing the army chief is aimed at targeting an organization which would never rebound back. He has simply erased from his personal memory that he was holidaying and golfing in Europe as Chief Minister, while Kashmiri Pundits were being massacred in his state. Did he even care for their basic welfare when they moved into squalid transit camps in Jammu? It was not his concern, but suddenly, he claims that widows are not being looked after and he would order a commission for their welfare. Does he realize that it is only the army which cares for its own, whereas he and his party have done nothing, including protesting the setting up of a veteran colony in the Valley.

Farooq has been struggling to bring his political party out of the woods. It presently only has relevance in the valley, hence is also not even a state level party. All his comments and speeches have a valley bias, ignoring Jammu and Ladakh. With the PDP and BJP combine gaining ground, the NC is headed downhill, into political wilderness. It may get just one chance in the next elections. Thus, he is desperately seeking to gain some votes. While many would consider it the rambling of an aging politician, shrewd Farooq personally knows that he faces a battle for survival. Therefore, he speaks what would keep him in the limelight at the national level, enhancing local support. It is therefore best to ignore him.

Kashmir leadership in a state of mental confusion CENJOWS 16 Nov 17

Contradictory statements have been emanating from various quarters on the future of Kashmir. Mehbooba Mufti, the present Chief Minister stated at the Express Adda recently, ‘the only way forward is to have a dialogue, which I am glad is happening now’. She was talking on the appointment of Dineshwar Sharma as the interlocutor. MOS Jitendra Sharma simultaneously stated in Jammu that Sharma’s appointment does not signal any change, as talks were always on. He implied the two visits of the home minister to the state.

Farooq Abdullah, president of the National Conference (NC), recently stated, ‘While POK belongs to Pakistan, Kashmir belongs to India. This would never change. Independent Kashmir is also not a reality.’ He also stated, ‘Holding talks (with the interlocutor) is not enough. The Indian government must also hold talks with Pakistan.’ He mentioned that if the government was open to tabling the interlocutor’s report in parliament, it would instil confidence in the same. He has been making anti-India comments, seeking to restore the sagging future of his National Conference in the valley.

The Hurriyat have been speaking like parrots all through history. Their standard comment has been that without talking to Pakistan, there would be no solution. A new line added has been stopping the use of pellet guns. The youth of Kashmir have perpetually been demanding azadi, implying an independent state of Kashmir alone, created on the lines of Switzerland. When questioned on this, Mehbooba stated that a fourteen-year-old cannot describe what azadi is, but still takes to the streets. The few militant groups seeking a caliphate are only worth ignoring.

Pakistan Prime Minister, Shahid Abbasi, addressing a conference on ‘future of Pakistan 2017’ at the London School of Economics, rejected the idea of an independent Kashmir. He stated that the idea is floated but has no reality. He also added that there was no support for a demand for an independent Kashmir. On the issue of talks with India, he stated, ‘talks are the only way forward. Without talks, no quantum change is possible.’ The Indian view has remained constant, POK is an integral part of India and there would be no talks unless Pak stops supporting terror.

Into this quagmire enters Dineshwar Sharma, the central government’s interlocutor for Kashmir. He is possibly the first interlocutor to have been granted an official status, which does convey the message that this government is serious. Initially the centre had sought three months from the supreme court, which was hearing the case against article 35A, claiming it had appointed an interlocutor. However, post his first visit to the state, Sharma stated in an interview, in reply to a question on how he visualizes progress, ‘If I remain an interlocutor for two years, you ask me this question after two years. If I am removed in six months, I will not have anything to say.’ Interestingly, the government has two years before the next elections, thus leaving the nation wondering what its final aims are.

Within the valley, normalcy is beginning to emerge. Militancy remains under control, money to fund violence is missing, terror groups are under pressure from Pak to act, but lack resources and moral courage, compelling them to strike banks for funds and weaker targets like police personnel on leave. The Hurriyat is side lined with no funds to sponsor violence or win supporters. The second rung and close relatives of the top rung of the Hurriyat are behind bars, with the rest awaiting calls for being investigated.

As per the DGP of police J and K, stone pelting is down by 90%. Thus, while the atmosphere is improving, divergent views and stringent stands have made progress forward slow. Is there truly a way forward? Is ignoring some suggestions with unimplementable solutions an option? Are demands for talks with Pakistan feasible under any circumstances?

The first requirement is changing mindset based on realities. The youth need to be explained that azadi is never feasible, either from the Indian side or even from Pak, as is evident from the statement by the Pak PM and the attitude of the deep state. Further, the UN resolution some from the valley keep referring to, is outdated and can never be considered. Even the resolution mentions Kashmir joining India or Pak, not independence. Hence, they need to seek solutions, within the Indian constitution. It is only by integrating would they reap the benefits of development. They must be assured that the centre has no desire to change demography of the region.

Secondly, the government needs to ignore unimplementable demands like complete autonomy and dialogue with Pak. Complete autonomy had been discarded way back with the signing of the Baig- Parthasarthy accord in 1975, when Sheikh Abdullah was the chief minister, as per the MOS Jitendra Singh. He also stated that Sheikh Abdullah legitimized his acceptance for central laws by framing the DD Thakur committee to review all central laws, since it gave a positive report on the same. According to Jitendra, Abdullah took this action once he realized central laws have been beneficial for the state.

It is also clear that the deep state, which controls Pak, would never desire peace nor talks. Pak’s stand is evident. It would never permit any solution where even a shred of autonomy is considered for Kashmir including POK, as it would lose control of the region, due to its highhanded approach and brutal suppression of POK. Nor would it be willing to discuss POK, whose demography it is attempting to change. It has further complicated the issue by permitting China to build the CPEC and gifted land to it.

Thus, those mentioning that talks with Pak and that it is also a stakeholder in the region, are doing so, knowing the government would be unwilling. For the Hurriyat and the NC, continuing violence is a means of maintaining power and enhancing their control over the region. For the NC, it is a means of projecting to the populace that they are their supporters, whom the government ignores, while the Hurriyat is aware that their relevance is only due to violence. If violence ceases, so would funding from Pak. Both know that they would have no political role in case peace prevails and development moves ahead. The NC is behaving more like a valley based party, than a state one.

While the atmosphere is conducive for peace, there are complications being created by self-serving groups for personal gains. Unless anti-national elements are marginalized, political parties seeking desperate survival strategies ignored and the youth made to realize that their anti-India stance has only caused more harm than good for themselves, there would be limited forward movement. While Dineshwar Sharma has his role cut out, he would need the support of political parties interacting at every level, displaying the desire of the government for meeting the needs of the public.

Talks with the interlocutor would be slow and time consuming. Some groups may have interacted, many would wait and see who else moves forward. No one wants to be noticed as desperate to rush to him. The Hurriyat would never officially venture forward, as it would be a loss of face, however, they may send their junior representatives, possibly as part of a deal with the government to go slow in persecuting them, considering their advanced ages and stature. The NC would seek political mileage by making public statements supporting their demands, rather than directly interacting. The most important community which need to be interacted with are the youth, born after the commencement of militancy, as they have witnessed the power of the army all through their lives and feel they are being suppressed.

With this as the possible near future scenario, forward movement would be time consuming. However, Sharma would need to increase his visibility across the region. The more visible he is, the more would be the interactions and greater the trust on the government. It is only then that the situation on the ground would only change. For this, all who desire peace and development and a better future for the youth, need to join hands and support this initiative.

Interlocutor for Kashmir The Excelsior 02 Nov 17

The home minister, Rajnath Singh, recently appointed Dineshwar Sharma as the centre’s interlocutor for Kashmir. He went on to state that Sharma is free to interact with any group or member of the region, which in his view, is a stake holder. Thus, the restrictions placed by the government of not talking to the Hurriyat, which it considered anti-national and pro-Pak appears to have been lifted. This itself indicates that there has been some re-think based on the changing environment.

While Sharma is the first interlocutor for the present government, there have been many prior. The UPA, during its ten-year rule had three interlocutors and five working groups, all of whom submitted their reports, none of which were even considered. It has been reported that Manmohan and Chidambaram had considered implementing some suggestions, but lacked the political strength to do so.

Hence, many doubt whether Sharma’s report will make any difference, expecting it to be one of the many, gathering dust. The opposition, previous interlocutors and the NC have been wary of the appointment of Sharma. Many have claimed that he is unqualified and the government’s approach is solely to buy time. It is essential that the individual and the approach be given an opportunity, prior to launching scathing attacks. This approach by the centre has reason and logic. For the centre, which has always been careful of its Kashmir policy, seeking to avoid indicating weakness, this decision is clearly from a position of strength.

There is a marked change in Kashmir in the past few months, after almost a whole season of turmoil. Burhan Wani’s encounter killing changed the valley’s atmosphere. The initial protests, which were spontaneous, were subsequently fuelled and funded by the separatists, who had no shortfall of funds, solely due to Pak’s largesse. The valley burnt, infiltration increased, compelling the government to induct additional forces into the region.

Since then, immense water has flown down the Jhelum. As the violence came under control, security forces began gaining the upper hand, eliminating terror group heads, almost as soon as they were being nominated. They have, this year alone, eliminated over 165 terrorists. Demonetization, raids and investigation by the NIA and the ED reduced the flow of funds from Pak, thus denying Hurriyat the freedom of sponsoring violence and hartals.

With peace returning to the valley, two major delegations were in the state near simultaneously, seeking to interact with the public. One was headed by the Home Minister and the other by Man Mohan Singh. Both delegations met a variety of groups and individuals, including politicians and traders. None of two groups had any interaction with the Hurriyat. Thus, while the Congress has not revealed officially what emerged, it does appear from the simultaneous visits that the government felt that the situation is now ripe for a move forward.

Till this change in environment, there was only one organization, which dominated the valley and considered itself as its spokesperson, solely because it had money power to fund violence and purchase support. This was the Hurriyat. Presently, with release of details of their amassing illegal property and wealth, while paying pittance for violence, leading a life of luxury while hundreds suffered in police retaliation, their standing has drastically reduced.

Further, with some members of the Hurriyat and close relatives of the top leadership behind bars and singing to the tune of the investigators, the leadership of the Hurriyat awaits its call for scrutiny. Most are old and suffer from a collection of ailments, hence know that if incarcerated, they may not survive long. Their hold on the masses, control over the valley and belief in their invincibility has vanished. Externally they cannot indicate a change in stance, internally they would be seeking a compromise.

The change is also evident in the attitude of the local population, who have begun to realize the futility of continuously battling the state. The high rate of success of security forces would never have been possible without information flowing from the grassroots. Violence during encounters has now become rare, compared to earlier. Pak infiltrated militants have used and abused local women, compelling many Kashmiris to turn towards the state. Morale of surviving militants is low as also is their financial status, forcing them to engage softer targets like ‘on leave’ police personnel, launch grenades from distances and strike banks for funds.

Increased cultural and sporting events in the valley, including the Adnan Sami show, without any incident or call for boycott, is also an indicator of re-emergence of a state of near normalcy. This change has enabled the state government to begin re-establishing control and commence developmental projects. It is in this changing environment that Sharma must wade into, to offer the centre the thoughts of the public.

While independence or implementation of the UN resolution is out of his purview, there are other options which can be considered, aimed at meeting local aspirations. Majority of the population are concerned about maintaining the religious and demographic identity of the region, ignoring the aspirations of the Kashmiri Pundits, who also remain major stake holders. Further, there would be desires for increasing employment avenues, better facilities and enhancing development.

A major shortcoming of this approach is that within the complete state, only the valley is being considered important enough to be addressed, ignoring Ladakh and Jammu. The views flowing would be localized, however implementation if any, would impact the state. If this approach is to reduce the influence of Pakistan supported militancy, then it maybe a narrow viewpoint.

Hence, can the government favour one part of the state, while ignoring others? Can it implement suggestions from one part, which could have an impact on the complete state? Is it conveying a message you need to be a minority strong region to be specifically addressed by the centre.

While the interlocutor may obtain views and suggestions from stakeholders in the valley, the centre needs to be cautious of the aspirations and hopes of the population of the rest of the state. If it ignores them, then this approach may cause more harm and enhance the intra state divide in the long term thus damaging the cohesiveness of the state.

Pace the key for interlocutor’s success in Kashmir ORF 27 Oct 17

Introduction

The Home Minister, Rajnath Singh, announced the recommencement of the dialogue process in Kashmir, with the appointment of Dineshwar Sharma, the former IB Director, as the centre’s interlocutor. Sharma has been given a free hand to interact with any group or member of society, seeking the aspirations of the people, to enable the centre to move forward with a possible solution. This is a shift from the centre’s earlier policy wherein it had stated that it would not talk to the Hurriyat, whom it considered as anti-nationals and were considered by earlier governments to be the voice of the Kashmiris.

While the step has been welcomed by the BJP’s ruling ally in the state, the PDP, the opposition party in the state, the NC, remains cautious, waiting and watching. The Congress, the main opposition, claimed that the government is finally on the right track, having adopted a failed hard policy for the past few years. Comments have flowed stating that this is only a ploy to further delay the resolution process.

History of channels of dialogue

Sharma is neither the first, nor likely to be the last interlocutor for the central government. KC Pant, a former defence minister and NN Vohra, the present J and K Governor were the first two interlocutors for the centre. They had initiated dialogue with vast sections of society. The UPA-I had appointed five working groups on J and K, including one headed by the former Vice President, Hamid Ansari. These groups had submitted their recommendations to the centre.

The UPA-II had appointed three interlocutors, Dileep Padgaonkar, Radha Kumar and MM Ansari, who had also submitted their report. Manmohan Singh also held a series of round table conferences on J and K. None of the reports of the interlocutors nor working groups ever saw the light of day and majority of their recommendations were never implemented. No official reasons have been given for the same.

Thus, it is evident that while the opposition may criticize, but when they possessed the opportunity, their home ministers only voiced suggestions but failed to take any worthwhile step, while reports of the collection of committees and interlocutors gathered dust. Even previous state governments preferred status quo, as it suited them. Violence and an anti-centre stance kept them in power and power is the end all of politics, the means may vary.

Changing Times

The atmosphere in the valley presently appears to be congenial for arriving at a midway solution, provided the government possesses the desire to push hard, employing resources at its power. Many factors have changed, necessitating a fresh look into issues facing the state, possibly even ignoring earlier reports of interlocutors.

The state is limping back to near normalcy (normalcy is still some distance away), after a prolonged period of unrest. The encounter elimination of Burhan Wani led to sponsored violence, enhanced infiltration and casualties to protestors. The state government had almost handed control of the valley to security agencies. The terrorists appeared to be gaining ground before the army went into operation ‘all out’, reducing their strength in anti-militancy operations, with enhanced anti-infiltration measures.

While terrorist related activities have reduced, the morale of militants is also low, compelling them to attack soft targets including police and local out of power politicians to indicate their presence. This change in trend has begun alienating them from the masses, as is evident from increased flow of information to security agencies. This has enhanced success rate of encounters. This year alone almost 165 militants have been eliminated. The local public away from towns is turning away from militants, seeking closer cooperation with security agencies. Shortage of funds from across the border is compelling militants to target banks, in desperation, to pay its cadres.

The Hurriyat, which appeared to possess no shortage of funds, due to largesse from Pakistan, could orchestrate violence at will. They appeared to be ruling the roost, pushing governments on the backfoot. For decades they were the untouchables, being provided security and funding from the state and centre, with a hope that they would change their spots, which they refused, becoming only more rigid in their demands. Demonetization, NIA and ED raids on hawala funding began impacting their control. Leaked news in every media channel on possession of illegal and benami properties by them and their kin at the cost of casualties to locals, reduced their standing in the public eye.

When they and their kin began being summoned by investigating agencies, their calls for bandhs seeking support were ignored. With most behind bars, others on the way, their power is on the wane. With all funds blocked, there is no money to sponsor violence or even terrorism, hence scales have reduced. They are aware that their crimes have been exposed and they would be tucked away in prison, far from their area of influence.

The NIA and ED raids, subsequent investigations, grilling and incarceration has softened them enough to realize that their days are numbered. With some of them singing like canaries, hoping for a reduced sentence, their top hierarchy has become aware that they are next in line. Hence, probably would try to establish links with the government seeking truce and willing to adopt a softer approach in their otherwise rigid demands.

Who better than an interlocutor, an ex IB director, aware of the Hurriyat and its funding, to whom they can put forward their now softened demands. Publicly the Hurriyat would project a strong stand, they must, or would be considered traitors by the masses, but being aware of pending cases against them and their loss of respect and local standing, would sing a different tune.

This changed environment had never existed in the state in recent times. The Hurriyat only spoke of UN resolutions, the youth of azadi and locals considered the Indian army as occupiers. The Hurriyat is now a spent force, the locals have slowly changed, disgusted with the behaviour and exploitation by militants. While violence by the youth at encounter sites has reduced, their demands for azadi may not have. Hence, Sharma would need to move fast and gain the maximum from interacting with the maximum, to enable the government to strike, while the iron is still hot.

Engaging with the masses

The most important community which needs to be engaged at length is the youth. They were born under the gun, witnessed calls for prayer of only one religion, faced the wrath of security forces, brainwashed into believing that independence is the only solution and have had very limited opportunities to grow beyond stone throwing and countering security forces operations. They desperately need opportunities, preferably away from the state, if they must be weaned away from their brainwashed demands of azadi. Further, it is only by interaction can they be convinced that azadi is not feasible, while other demands benefitting them may be.

Amongst other important groups are those who have suffered the maximum financially in the state, the traders and those dependent on tourism, which was the mainstay of the state. They would need a reassurance that their troubles would be looked into and the centre would work towards resolving their problems. Similar reassurances would be essential for other small handicraft manufacturers, who presently struggle to survive.

Village elders, Kashmiri Pundits, political parties and the Hurriyat would always remain stakeholders in the process and their inputs would be equally important. The centre may consider meeting some demands within the accession document, to establish a positive mood.

Conclusion

Pitfalls in the process are immense. The supreme court is hearing the case against Article 35A, an issue very sentimental to local Kashmiri’s. A decision at this juncture against it, could once again plunge the valley into turmoil. The centre needs to keep this under consideration. Any action by militants or security forces causing large scale casualties could turn this conducive atmosphere on its head.

While the task has magnitude, time remains of essence. Winters are approaching, before which the security agencies seek to eliminate militant leaders, bringing in an environment more conducive to peace and development. It is within this time that Sharma must aim to show the seriousness of the centre.

There is always a doubt in the minds of the locals whether the centre is truly serious, or is it seeking another option to delay decision making. Previous interlocutor’s reports have gathered dust, will this also. The pace at which Sharma moves will indicate the determination of the centre. For now, it is the best step taken.

Time to move forward in J and K The Excelsior 19 Oct 17

Despite claims of empty seats and invited guests, Adnan Sami’s concert in Srinagar was an indicator that threads of near normalcy are visible in the valley. There were no protests, no objections, no calls for boycott and no heightened militant activity, preceding the concert. The valley had witnessed an unprecedented elimination of militants, over one hundred and seventy, this year. Infiltration is controlled, with very few making their way in. Stone throwing incidents have dropped to below one-third levels as compared to the previous year. Calls for protests even on issues like braid chopping, by the Hurriyat, are being ignored.

The valley is moving towards normalcy. The combined efforts of the security forces, NIA, diplomatic push against Pakistan and even demonetization has made the Hurriyat into a spent force, demoralized the militants, choked entry of illegal money and gained the confidence of the public who have begun sharing information on movement of terrorists.

Without the cooperation of residents, there can never be such immense success in operations, implying that they too now feel that militancy and protests are detrimental for their society. For once, militants are forced to strike banks to obtain funds and change tactics to target weaker elements within the security forces, while continuing their charade on social media.

However, there are always disgruntled elements within the nation, including a group led by former minister, Yashwant Sinha with members of the Congress, who continue to claim support for the separatists, feel that the valley has lost confidence on the country and the present coalition in the state. These are desperate cries by a desperate group, whose demands based on select interactions have been ignored. Their words are quoted by Pak to indicate that all is not well. Similar has been an outburst by Arundhati Roy, who in her latest book criticizes the government and the army. These aberrations would remain in a democracy and should be rightfully ignored.

A visible change has been reduced negative comments by either Farooq Abdullah or his son Omar on the ongoing situation, simply because they have nothing to comment on. The sudden silence of the Hurriyat implies a fear within them of facing long terms behind bars for various illegal activities and financial crimes which they committed with impunity over the years. With some of them singing like canaries, the entire group is heading for the lock up. Thus, they would be seeking an agreement with the government to stop supporting anti-national activities to avoid spending their last few years behind bars.

The Hurriyat and their supporters always felt that Pak would continue raising its voice in international fora, thus ensuring that India is chastised for its actions in Kashmir and they remain relevant and above board. They have now realized that no one listens to Pak anymore. Kashmir has been ignored by the UN for decades, considering it a bilateral matter between the two nations. While Indian demand for POK being a part of Kashmir has been accepted, Pak’s demand for third party negotiation has been ignored. Hence, the Hurriyat realizes that they need to battle Indian investigative agencies themselves.

There are still increased ceasefire violations from Pak, targeting border villages, which despite strong retaliation and increased losses on their side, would continue. This would displace local villagers and impact their daily lives. The Pak army cannot change its spots, hence would continue with its infiltration attempts, despite high losses. Pak can only summon Indian diplomats and issue demarches, which are conveniently ignored, as India avoids ceasefire violations.

Within the state, the two main regions of Jammu and Srinagar continue to be locked in a battle over Article 35A and the illegal Rohingya immigrants issue, with no easy solution to either, both remaining sub-judice in the Supreme Court. Yet, on most other issues there is a common understanding.

Recently there were two teams which visited the valley and interacted with different subsections of society. While one was headed by the Home Minister, the other by the former Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh. They would have returned with suggestions for inclusion of the valley into the mainstream. Normalcy in Kashmir is high on the list of India’s national interest.

An integrated Kashmir is essential for every political party, despite its different ideology. Hence, the government should consider forming an all-party group, amalgamating the suggestions and views obtained by both the groups, keeping party biases aside. These could then be considered and implemented.

Within the state, the present atmosphere is also an indicator for seeking a change in the outlook of security forces, including local police. From a highhanded approach, essential for handling a higher level of militancy, to a softer outlook in changing conditions is essential.

Security forces need to be briefed to display more patience and be more humane and understanding with the local populace. This is also the time for greater emphasis on ‘Sadbhavna Projects’, where moving groups of youngsters to cities in India to convey what Kashmir has lost by being locked up and secluded from the nation.

The PDP, which holds the mantle in the state must plan and move its cadre across the valley, seeking to interact with the masses, project the writ of the government and reclaim authority. It needs to push forth pending developmental projects and ensure clean governance. The bane of the region has been corruption, which if reduced, would win over the masses, change outlook and enhance trust. While summer tourism took a beating, the winter tourism should be made a resounding success.

Central agencies have worked overtime, in a coordinated manner, to create a situation of near normalcy. Despite differences, the coalition government in the state, which most considered unsuitable, has stood the test of time and remained together during the critical phase and now it is time to dream ahead. The governments at the state and centre should grab this opportunity and seek a lasting solution. Ignoring this moment would be detrimental to national interest.

Is the government serious on engaging Kashmiri’s? The Excelsior 26 Aug 17

A week ago, the Home Minister, Rajnath Singh made a statement that the government is working towards a solution for Kashmir, on which he could not give a deadline of six months or one year. He admitted that though stone throwing had reduced, but must stop, before the government acts. While addressing a programme on ‘New India Movement 2017-2022’ in Lucknow over the weekend, Rajnath Singh changed his statement to state that solutions to Kashmir, Naxals and North-East insurgencies would only be available by 2022. This shift of the government in such a short time, does not speak high of its determination and claims.

The government had recently launched a multipronged strategy of employing all government agencies in tandem to isolate anti-national elements and reduce militants. The army and allied security forces, including J and K police, were given freedom to launch operations to reduce the number of militants in the valley, through ‘Operation All Out’. This was a turning point and this year alone, one hundred and thirty-two militants have been eliminated, including many top commanders. This has adversely affected their morale and most are now in hiding. Strong and reinforced counter infiltration measures have reduced numbers of those who have successfully infiltrated, while strong retaliation to cross border violations, have placed Pak on the backfoot.

Simultaneously, the NIA has begun isolating the Hurriyat, by releasing details of properties amassed by their leaders at the cost of blood of local youth, whom they pushed into the front lines. The NIA has curtailed their source of funds, by closing most hawala operations and arrested those who were involved. It has begun questioning the top leadership and is only a matter of time before those responsible are arrested and face long prison terms. Professional stone throwers, identified by CCTV footages are already behind bars. Within the valley, as news spread about amassed properties of the Hurriyat, their respect and standing drops. Calls for bandhs on the arrest of their kith and kin are ignored.

The environment in the valley has begun changing. Stone throwing and protests which were once organized activities, paid for by the proxies of Pakistan are now spontaneous events, controlled by security forces. Even protests and bandhs have reduced. Those who had fooled the people into believing they were for their cause, now stand exposed. Interestingly, the Hurriyat leaders seeking to break away from India and either join Pak or occasionally profess a separate state, purchased prime properties in Delhi, a supposed enemy state in the eyes of the locals. This showed that they knew they had no hopes of succeeding, hence purchased where their families would be secure.

The only push back in the valley amidst all gains has been an increase in the number of locals joining militant ranks. Most are neither trained, nor motivated nor even equipped to challenge the might of the army, hence are being eliminated rapidly. If this also has to reduce then the government needs to act.

This is the time when the government machinery should have begun to regain control over the districts and towns. Interactions between elected representatives and the public, to explain government intentions, future policies and plans should have commenced. However, the government and the governed seem to be at different ends of the ladder. There has been no forward movement, except statements and suggestions. Instead, another hydra in the form of Article 35 A has been permitted to rise, thus adding fuel to a diminishing flame.

The state government has begun raising its voice against Article 35A, seeking to protect demography in the valley, while failing to realize that they represent the state, not the valley alone. PDP and NC, instead of seeking to bring peace, succour and restore public confidence are enhancing regional and religion divide within the state. Thus, the gains being achieved by the army are being ignored.

This has happened to the valley every time the army has brought the situation under control. The government has slept, stating it is seeking a solution, whereas in reality, it has failed to act, simply because it had no solution. The Prime Minister, in his address to the nation, from the ramparts of the Red Fort, stated that ‘Kashmir cannot be solved by abuse or bullets, it will be solved by embracing all Kashmiri’s’. The words appear hollow as the divide between Kashmiris’ and the nation only seems to increase, while security forces continue to keep the valley under control. The government machinery at both, central and state levels appear handicapped and unwilling to move.

The Home Minister had earlier commented that the government would enhance employment opportunities for the youth, but nothing seems to move. Is this government going to follow dozens before it by just biding time and hoping the problem would vanish into thin air? If it is, then it is no different, despite its huge claims. It had made a string of promises, vowed to act, has partially done so, but when it comes to the crux, seems to develop cold feet and hesitates.

The army has, at great cost and sacrifice, provided the government space to move forward. It has created an environment of near normalcy, beyond which may not be feasible in present times. The government may need to take small steps, but unless it does, how can it indicate a firmness and resolute desire to resolve problems. Ignoring the state now could result in the situation slipping back and becoming advantage Pakistan again.

The government should not let this opportunity go a-begging. Mere words imply nothing unless backed by action and results. Words have flowed from every Prime Minister, but none has acted or even attempted to resolve local problems. It is time the Modi government moves beyond mere rhetoric and takes the bull by the horns, opens avenues for dialogue, offers solutions, as after all violence is a cycle, which may soon return to haunt, if the government continues to slumber.

Engage youth to reduce J and K strife The Statesman 22 Aug 17

Extremism and violence is a latent quality in every individual, which remains subdued, unless ignited by an external force. This force may be an extreme belief in religion or an orator with the ability to mould his audience by the power of his speech or a violent incident which impacts the individual. The most dangerous orator is one who invokes religion for indulging or supporting violence. In addition, if society lacks means of channelizing latent energy of youth into productive ventures, then it compells them to expend it in negative actions.

The valley is an example of how local youth have been manipulated into turning anti-state and compelled to resort to violence for the flimsiest of reasons.

Over decades, Kashmiri youth have been engrained with the thought that the valley should not be a part of India, but an independent nation, solely because of its demography. Rumours engulf the region at frequent intervals, that a Hindu India seeks to alter their religious majority status. Thus, violence broke out over allocation of land to the Amarnath Yatra shrine board, while the state blocked release of land for Ex-servicemen colonies and resettlement of Kashmiri Pundits. The anger against possible removal of Article 35 A is a result of this rumour.

There is an element within the state seeking merger with Pak, solely on religious ethnicity. This element includes militants inducted from Pak, pro-Pak Hurriyat and their supporters. The masses are consoled by statements, that the will of the people will decide the future of the state once it breaks free of Indian shackles.

Thus, the population had begun believing that their demand for azadi can only be met by violence as a means of freedom struggle and Pak would support their choice. This thought has been enunciated from minbars of Mosques, social media emanating from Pak and the Hurriyat. Pak has always stated that it seeks merger of Kashmir and has never once mentioned supporting an independent nation. A statement by the POK Prime Minister, post the ouster of Nawaz, that he has doubts of remaining with Pak, created a controversy. Pak presupposes that if given an option, the valley will merge with it.

Hence the idea being injected into the minds of the youth cannot be further from the truth. Regular indoctrination of this belief in every forum over decades, has poisoned minds, changing which would require to be a long-term plan, rather than hard overnight actions, as being considered at present. There is no political party, forum, organization or even an NGO, which can initiate debates at various levels in the valley, enabling truth to flow. Complete breakdown of communication between those governing and the governed has adversely impacted the valley.

The valley is unique in many ways. There are roads with bus services to each village, every individual owns a property and poverty is negligible. Financially, there is a sense of security. However, since militancy commenced, many aspects have changed. Most of the youth at the forefront of the agitation have hardly set foot outside the region, lack knowledge of development in the rest of the country, availability of opportunities and hence possess a narrow mindset. Schools have been burnt, compelling youth to study in madrassas, which restrict free thought, while driving in a Wahhabism mentality. Religious restrictions and threats for not adhering to customs by terror groups over the years, has made the valley more religious than ever before.

Since the ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Pundits (the present generation has been born after it), the valley has only witnessed calls for prayer for one religion, hence the youth seek to ensure it remains the same. In such a closed environment, rumours spread fast and wild, especially when it involves crimes or brutality against those belonging to the sect, carefully crafted by Pakistan’s deep state. These are specially designed to incite and anger youth to resort to violence at every given opportunity.

There are very limited avenues for Kashmiri youth to release pent-up energy. Entertainment in the valley is missing, cinema houses are shut, play grounds are restricted and programs on television are mostly based on religion, being broadcast from Pakistan or Saudi Arabia. The influence of religion, pushed by hardliners, has further restricted television entertainment for the masses.

Hence for youth, there is no means of releasing pressures or surplus energy. Due to lack of employment opportunities, frustration only builds, resulting in quicker acceptance of rumours, seeking active participation in violent actions. Being paid for stone throwing also benefits. Videos of school or college students dancing to tunes of azadi, prior to resorting to stone throwing, indicates that most consider it as a means of entertainment rather than anger against the state. Stone throwing therefore is an outlet for release of internal pressures and not solely anger against the state.

Sporting events, mainly organized by the army, on the limited fields available, are actively subscribed to. Participation is immense and so is the enthusiasm. Events including inter-village cricket tournaments, women football matches and youth festivals have seen immense attendance. No event has been marred by stone pelting, Pak flags being waved nor by cries of azadi. Football and cricket are two games drawing mass participation. There have been calls from moderates for conducting district level cricket and football tournaments to change youth mindsets, which the state has ignored.

Active participation in the limited sporting ventures conducted, conveys the message that youth are crying to be engaged, seeking opportunities for releasing pent up feelings and pressures. If such action is adopted and the state supports it, stone throwing may become a rarity. There must be a coordinated effort to change the environment, introduce mass activities, which involve youth participation, while ensuring functioning of schools, if we wish to witness a change in attitudes, in the long term.

Valley shaken by Article 35A debate The Statesman 15 Aug 17

India is celebrating seventy years of its independence. Over the years, state borders have been changed or states carved from larger states as the need arose, to meet the aspirations of the masses. The boundaries of J and K, the most diverse state of the nation, have remained unchanged, though it should ideally have been split into manageable and contiguous proportions. Arguments on accession verses merger are the main cause for this restriction. J and K is the only state which acceded to India, but did not merge. Thus, the state continues to have its own flag, constitution and traditional boundaries.

Post seventy years of independence, it is time the state became a part of the union, like all others. Maintaining its status under the pretext of Articles 35A and 370, is an idea which has outlived its utility. The initial reason for inducting this article appear to be lost in time, however, it can be safely deduced that the logic was to maintain the cultural identity of the state and that its citizens should not lose any advantage by becoming Indian nationals. This logic has been twisted and turned to indicate a desire of the centre to change the demography of the valley, which is unacceptable to the locals. This thought is wrong in many ways.

The J and K high court had ruled in Oct 15, that article 370 is ‘permanent, beyond amendment, repeal or abrogation’. This was struck down by the supreme court, within a short time, when it stated that it can be removed by the parliament. This implies recommendations for the same flowing from the J and K legislature, an action unlikely in the near future. Thus, the battle shifted to article 35 A.

This article has been discriminatory in many forms even for its own populace. While women who marry outside the state lose their rights, men are permitted. Kashmiri’s who migrated to Pak remain citizens for two generations, while those who migrated from Pak are denied rights. By losing rights, they are unable to own property, seek government jobs, college admissions, aid and scholarships. The battle is now in the supreme court, repercussions of which are already being felt across the state.

Possible removal of Article 35 A has created such fear within valley based political parties, that they have not only joined hands to fight the case, but have also threatened the nation. Farooq Abdullah claimed that removal of the article would see riots of a scale never witnessed before, while Mehbooba Mufti stated that there would be no one to hold the national flag in the valley. Omar Abdullah announced plans to begin an awareness campaign on the article in the valley. Pak has joined the chorus by stating India plans to change the demography of the region. All this to justify a wrong and brainwash local valley population.

In seventy years, since the existence of the article, residents of Jammu and Ladakh could always purchase land and property in the valley. There has been no such movement. The valley demography has remained unchanged. Post the ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Pundits in the early nineties, the properties of those migrating were bought by local Kashmiri Moslems, not residents of Jammu. Thus, the demography changed in the reverse direction, rather than as being projected.

The state has only witnessed reverse migration towards Jammu. The valley refused to allocate land for returning Kashmiri Pundits, ex-servicemen of the state and migrants from Pak. Large populace of the valley have brought properties in Jammu, alongside Rohingya’s and Bangladeshis and are migrating there, changing demography of the Jammu region. Jammu desperately desires removal of the article as it also prohibits development and infusion of funds.

Political parties presently threatening the government on the issue of Article 35A, represent the valley. They are unwilling to even seek a consensus with their coalition partners, knowing that views are at variance. Thus, NC and PDP are taking a decision for the state, while representing only a small part of it, as the valley is far smaller in size and population, as compared to the Jammu region. None of them have ever explained to the residents of the state on the benefits of complete merger with the nation, which includes, flow of capital, development, improvement of facilities etc.

The issue is being converted into a religious one. The valley is worried of a change in its Muslim majority status. There are also claims that only Hindu’s in the Jammu region desire its removal, not Moslems, a claim which is false. By playing the religious card, the aim appears to be to stall the issue. Mehbooba Mufti even rushed to Delhi to seek the intervention of the Prime Minister.

India is a democracy; hence the government must consider the will of the people before it takes a decision. The state government cannot consider only the valley when it seeks to oppose court directions against the article. It must take the opinion of the rest of the state. This can be done by two options. The first is by an all-party meeting seeking to obtain a wider consensus. The PDP is avoiding it, knowing that the BJP, with a strong hold on Jammu would never agree. Further, it was also a part of the BJP election manifesto, hence it swept to power.

The second option is to conduct a referendum across the state on the issue. Here again, valley based political parties are scared as the chances of obtaining majority appear dim. This fear riding deep within the PDP and NC, is evident, when enemies suddenly turn into allies. Thus, their actions are clearly prejudiced, politically motivated and illogical.

There is clearly a need to seek a wider political consensus on the issue by opening it for debate across the state. Ideally, solutions need to be found for meeting the aspirations of the people of different parts of the state who have varying opinions on the removal of the article. Only the valley cannot hold the rest of the state to ransom, nor can valley based political parties ignore the rest of the state for their own survival.

Everyone who picks up a gun in the valley will face elimination Defence news India 13 Aug17

Every time a local militant is killed, the valley breaks out in protests. The most violent and prolonged protest in recent times was after the elimination of Burhan Wani, a militant who was more a poster boy, avoiding clashes with security forces. He was eulogised by the separatists, with Geelani announcing that he would be honoured with the “Tangma-e-Azeemat” (medal of greatness), for his ‘dedication, sincerity and bravery’. He was also praised by Nawaz Sharif who called him a ‘young leader’ at the UN.

It was clear, that the protests which followed his elimination and subsequent burial, commenced spontaneously, but were soon taken over by the Hurriyat, which paid stone throwers with money flowing in from Pakistan. They prolonged the protests seeking to enhance their control over the region. The protests engulfed towns in the valley, blown out of proportion by a part of the media, which claimed the valley was on fire, which was untrue. It resulted in immense loss of lives and injuries to the youth. It shut down the valley for the summer, causing financial loss to the state and its population.

In a similar manner, most protests subsequent to elimination of militants or death to those disrupting security forces operations were organized and financed by the Hurriyat. However, demonetization dealt a severe blow to their source of funds. Protests then became localized and spontaneous. Presently, with the NIA dealing a crippling blow to the Hurriyat and its source of funds, protests have almost ceased. The Hurriyat’s calls for bandh, post the arrest of the kin of the leaders were largely ignored. Thus, evidently it was money and not the cause which drove protests.

The rate of elimination of local militants is increasing rapidly. Most of those now being eliminated are ones who joined their ranks recently. Inter militant group rivalry has also given the security forces an upper hand. Media reports on reasons for youth picking up the gun and joining militancy appear to indicate two sides of the coin. While one states anger against the state, the other is bravado and display of manhood.

No parent, irrespective of beliefs or even wedded to the cause of ‘azadi’ desires to receive the remains of their son. Most try to dissuade them, but circumstances, mostly the desire to gain a name and local fame, compel them to join. Post joining the ranks, many realize the futility of the cause and seek to revert, but are prevented and denied the option by their comrades. Thus, poorly motivated, ill-trained and ill-equipped they are rapidly eliminated and become numbers in the militancy game. For those from their hamlet, eliminated militants are heroes who died for the cause, thus large numbers attend their burials.

Those who manage to survive are appointed leaders of various factions in smaller regions, further hastening their elimination. It is clear, the higher you rise in the militant hierarchy, locally you may become an icon, but for security forces, you are an important target. Hence, most up the hierarchy, become social media militants, recruiting others to become cannon fodder, while they remain away from encounters and devote their energy in enticing others or posting messages on social media.

The locals who seek to protest during encounters, risking their lives resorting to stone throwing are official supporters of militants. They are militants without weapons, hence would face security forces wrath. Those who are injured in security forces actions claim to be passing by or watching stone throwing, akin to observing a sporting event.

Pak infiltrated militants, have always felt they are superior to their local counterparts and have been infiltrated to support the militancy, hence exploit Kashmiri’s to the fullest. This exploitation was very evident when militancy commenced in the nineties, inputs of their presence was conveyed to security forces by those whom they harassed. This ensured success of security forces, who slowly brought their numbers down.

The cycle is now repeating itself, as jilted girlfriends, harassed locals and those seeking peace and tranquillity have begun passing information. Hence, it is not surprising that information on militants like Abu Dujana, known for harassing women in the region, was repeatedly received, but he managed to slip through the cordons.

Action by locals resorting to shut downs and bandhs on his elimination indicates a skewed approach. The man who harassed and abused local women at will was being treated as a hero. The police rightly decided that Pak sponsored and infiltrated militants like Abu Dujana do not deserve local burial, hence did it themselves.

When a militant picks up a gun, he has indicated a desire to die by it. His days are numbered. There is no militant who has ever died a natural death in Kashmir. He has either exfiltrated to Pakistan or been eliminated by security forces. In recent times, with better border management measures in place, exfiltration has become nigh impossible, hence every militant will be eliminated. Infiltration from Pak or joining militancy has become a one-way ticket and those who have picked the gun have signed their own death warrant.

If this is the reality, then those who seek to provide support, throw stones or disrupt security forces operations should realize the futility of their exercise. They may save the militant for a day, at a cost to their own lives, but he would be eliminated a few days later. He has chosen to be eliminated, hence his wish would be fulfilled by security forces.

It ultimately boils down to local youth understanding the logic, that supporting militants is risking life and limb for no reason. It is better to assist in their elimination, rather than in saving them, as they are earmarked for death anyway. The earlier this message spreads, the faster would peace return to the valley.

Why PDP and NC don’t want Article 35 A scrapped in J and K Daily O 11 Aug 17

In recent times, there has been an intense debate on the legality of Article 35 A of the Indian constitution, specifically as it concerns J and K. This article empowers the state legislature to define ‘permanent residents’ of the state, their special rights and privileges. It was added to the constitution through a presidential order of 1954 with the concurrence of the state government of the day.

Article 370, on the other hand, guarantees special status to the state, restricting the central government’s power to only three subjects, defence, foreign affairs and communication. The Delhi agreement between Nehru and Sheik Abdullah in 1952 led to several additional provisions of the constitution being extended to the state. This was done via a presidential order of 1954. Article 35A was inserted then.

Article 35 A provides the right to purchase and own property, seek government jobs, aid, college admissions and scholarships in J and K. Those who emigrated from the state to Pakistan during partition are considered state subjects for two generations, but those who migrated from other than POK and settled in J and K, post partition, are ineligible.

Article 35 A is now being challenged in the supreme court. There are differences in views, both within the state and between political parties. The BJP had mentioned removal of the article in its election manifesto and believes that the article, has outlived its utility and the state should be merged with the nation, akin to other states.

Its coalition partner, the PDP and the National Conference (NC), both valley based political parties, are averse to its removal. Mehbooba Mufti stated that if the status of J and K is tampered with, there would be no one to hold the Indian flag in the state, while Farooq Abdullah warned of mass protests. The valley parties are against this proposal solely because they have been propogating that such a step would lead to change of demography in the valley. Both have joined hands together to contest this battle and deny any dilution to its current status. Omar Abdullah’s announcement of commencing his protest on 14 Aug is seeking to convey a subtle message, as it is Pak’s Independence Day.

J and K has three distinct parts, Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. There are no major objections to its abrogation in Jammu, in fact it desires its removal, as recent forum discussions have indicated, Ladakh seeks a union territory status, the valley remains solely averse. It is unlikely that the article can be considered for removal in one part of the state, while it remains in the others.

The article has been discriminatory amongst its own population, hence has come under questioning. A resident woman marrying outside the state is no longer considered a permanent resident, thus she and her children lose their status. The same is not applicable to male members, who may marry outside the state. Further, residents of the state since independence, having migrated from Pakistan are non-residents, while those who emigrated to Pak are.

Legally the article can be questioned as they deny residents their basic rights under the Indian constitution. The articles of the constitution which are violated are article 14 concerning equality, article 15 concerning discrimination on basis of place of birth, article 16 dealing with equality of opportunity in matters of public employment and reservations and article 19 which is right to free speech and right of life and liberty.

Article 370 has a different connotation. The J and K high court in Oct 2015 had ruled that article 370 is ‘permanent, beyond amendment, repeal or abrogation’. In a subsequent appeal, the supreme court stated that it is not permanent and parliament can take a call on scrapping it. Hence, the battle has now shifted to article 35 A, which could be a precursor to article 370.

Over the years, local Kashmiri’s have been made to believe that scrapping of article 35 A would change the demography of the region. This could never be further from the truth, as facts indicate. Residents of the entire state possess the power to purchase property and settle anywhere, within the state. There has been no movement of population from either Jammu or Ladakh towards the valley and thus no demographic change has occurred in the region, since the last seventy years. Properties of Kashmiri’s who migrated post ethnic cleansing were bought by local Moslems, not residents of Jammu or Ladakh.

The valley on its part has refused to allocate land for ex-servicemen belonging to the state, Kashmiri Pundits and even migrants from Pakistan. The reality is that change in demography has been in the reverse direction, with Kashmiri’s, Bangladeshi’s and Rohingya’s moving and settling around Jammu and NOT the valley.

Secondly, why should valley based political parties possess the prerogative to take decisions on behalf of the state. Their logic that demography of the valley would change is skewed, as they represent the state and not only the valley. The valley is much smaller when compared to Jammu and Ladakh, both in terms of area and population, hence it should not be permitted to hold the rest of the state to ransom.

The reality is valley based parties are afraid of losing their support base, because for years they have drilled the population with a thought of demographic change, hence cannot back down now, though evidence points to the opposite. In addition, there is a latent fear that the BJP would soon become a force in the valley, eroding their power.

If the state is required to take a legal stand on the issue, then it should consult representatives of Jammu and Ladakh also. They are unwilling because Jammu is dominated by the BJP, whose views are clear and Ladakh by the Congress. Hence, in case political consensus is not forthcoming, then the next democratic step would be to conduct a referendum across the state. Both, PDP and NC are hesitant against this step, knowing they would lose. Thus, they are willing to support violent protests in the valley, as it is the only part of the state, where locals have been brainwashed.

I have asked many local Kashmiri’s to explain how would they lose if the article is removed. The only answer which flows is change of demography, which in their opinion is a one-way ticket to paradise. When explained that demographic changes have not occurred in seventy years, when anyone from the plains could settle in the valley, hence is unlikely to change now, there is silence. When informed that it would only enhance investments, increase employment opportunities and ensure development, there is again silence.

In case the central government does seek to bring about a change, it needs to engage the population, commence debate on the advantages and disadvantages of the articles in vernacular media and college forums, creating awareness to override the misconstrued campaign of the valley based political parties. It should NOT let only one voice, opposing the article, flow from the valley. Saner thoughts must prevail and the complete state views be considered, which is strongly for its abrogation.

NIA summons: Hurriyat is battling to save itself as Kashmir is limping to near normalcy Daily O 30 Jul 17

The NIA’s investigation into hawala transactions involving the separatists and their ilk has entered a decisive phase. A sting operation, in which their members openly boasted of unlimited flow of funds to disrupt normal life and deny children even basic educational facilities by burning schools, opened a Pandora’s box. The trail is now being connected and source of funds being blocked, choking the flow of illegal money into the valley. With restrictions imposed on cross border trade, new avenues are now restricted. This has added to problems being faced by separatists and their cronies.

The first impact of drying of funds has been a reduction in organized violence in the valley. Incidents still occur, but are scant and uncoordinated, mostly spontaneous, thereby enabling security forces to control them. Incidents of violence cannot be completely stopped, but can be restricted and controlled.

The NIA has also identified habitual stone throwers, observed participating in multiple locations. These are local leaders, who compelled youth to join organized protests. They motivated college students employing peer pressure and monetary gains. It was clear that these habitual offenders were being paid by the Hurriyat. They are now arrested and being questioned. Details of links in the chain would soon flow and there would be more arrests.

The NIA has begun reigning in the separatists, calling them out of the state for questioning, reducing their ability to influence the valley. The investigation and methodology adopted is logical. The interrogations have begun from the third rung, slowly moving up the ladder. As the investigation climbs each rung, it reaches closer to the king pins. Each level provides details linking those on the next higher plane into the crime. As information flows and the NIA collates data, the senior hierarchy would be called in. Thus, within a short time, the entire Hurriyat leadership would be out of the state. The NIA should simultaneously begin filing criminal cases against those suspected of being guilty, locking them behind bars, away from the valley. Since it is possible for them to influence crucial witnesses or disappear, bail should strictly be denied.

Simultaneously, governments at the state and centre must observe local reactions and monitor the situation. The NIA has also begun releasing details of properties amassed by senior Hurriyat leaders. Since none has done a day’s honest labour in their lives, the properties they own are all illegal. For the Kashmiri’s who trusted them and followed their battle cry, the realization has begun to dawn that the Hurriyat played on the innocence of the youth, made them cannon fodder, while living a life of luxury, secure and safe from the dangers of bullets and amassed wealth.

Another input which came to light, through recovery of documents, was that local militant groups claimed and obtained money from the Hurriyat post demonetization, when they faced a financial crunch. Many main stream political parties refused to accept that demonetization did impact militancy, but documents now in NIA custody, prove this aspect. Thus, the Hurriyat’s direct support to militancy is established.

The Hurriyat never expected the government to act against them and believed that they were above the law and too sacred to be touched, as all previous governments considered them as a part of the solution. Times have changed and the present government considers them as part of the problem. The NIA action forced them to seek local support in desperation.

The Hurriyat announced a bandh call after the arrest of the second rung, including close family members of the top leadership. Other than Lal Chowk, the valley was peaceful with schools, colleges and offices functioning, clearly indicating a change in air across the region. The truth is slowly dawning amongst Kashmiri’s that the Hurriyat not only amassed wealth from funds sent from across the border, to support the uprising, but now that they are in trouble are seeking violence to save them.

Simultaneously, security forces are relentlessly pursuing militants and their Over Ground Workers (OGW), breaking recruiting modules by the day. Enhanced counter infiltration measures have drastically reduced inflow of militants. Inducted militants are on the run, avoiding direct confrontation with security forces, firing and running, solely seeking to survive. There may still be stray incidents, where militants may achieve success, however, the situation is now coming under control.

Even Musa, the local al Qaeda head appears to be just a poster boy. He has hardly any supporters and devotes his time in sending video and audio messages. Local militants have realized that though they picked up the gun in anger, their lives are at risk, hence avoid direct confrontation with security forces.

Will moving the separatists out of the valley, reduce tempers and create an opportunity for the government? While many incidents, including violence post funerals of militants or those killed in stone throwing were spontaneous, most others were planned and funded. Violence was apart from being an industry and an avenue of employment in the valley, also a means of releasing anger and frustration of the youth. With no funding on the way, only spontaneous incidents, akin to what happens across the country would occur. Hence would be controllable, provided the government acts.

As the NIA questioning progresses amid controlling of militancy and reduction in violence, the opportunity now arising must not be lost. The governments at the state and centre should be at the forefront fulfilling their promises to the public. Locals politicians must become more visible in their constituencies, pushing for deliverance of governance and interacting with the masses. Simultaneously the centre must move in with its solution, as the Home Minister, Rajnath Singh, had so boldly announced. The state government must enhance interaction with youth in colleges. Employment opportunities should be enhanced and development become more visible. This was also hinted by Mehbooba Mufti, in her recent speech.

This opportunity has arisen because the government’s strategy for the state has moved as visualized. The situation is moving towards near normalcy and the Hurriyat is battling to save itself, almost isolated. Pak supported infiltrators are being killed on entry, while those within, running to save themselves. This moment should not be lost as has happened on previous occasions. Roping in major political parties of the state, PDP, NC and Congress, the centre must act, pushing forth its agenda. If it hesitates, this moment may be lost forever.

Pilgrimage that builds bridges The Statesman 18 Jul 17

The attack on the bus of returning Amarnath yatri’s resulting in seven deaths has shaken the nation. Protests and bandhs paralysed life in Jammu for a couple of days, the starting point of the yatra, as also in other parts of the state, in solidarity. A candle light vigil was held in Srinagar and ‘not in my name’ vigil in Delhi. Death due to accidents is acceptable, however by terror strikes is not.

The nation had come together in criticizing the incident. For once, most political parties, barring the odd, avoided playing politics over the attack. The candle light vigil in Srinagar indicated that despite claims, the majority are not against the state. There was even muted criticism from the Hurriyat. Security forces have stepped up their operations and a massive hunt is underway to track down the perpetrators of the attack.

The most remarkable fallout is the increased determination of the participants of the yatra. There is no indication of fear or worry amongst the faithful. Those participating state in one voice that since their army is responsible for security, there is no fear. They represent the majority of Indians who trust the army with their lives. This is the true national spirit and an indicator of the grit and faith of the common Indian. It is the average Indian who performs the yatra, hence, the spirit shown by him proves that the nation can never be cowed down by any enemy or adversary seeking to harm its internal fibres.

For the locals of Kashmir, the yatra is an eagerly awaited event, as it is a major revenue earner. Those offering their services to the yatris’ along the route to the shrine have travelled large distances, some coming all the way from Rajouri and Doda, south of the Pir Panjal range, while others from across the valley. During the short yatra, they earn a fairly large sum and are there every year, despite strict security checks, tough living and working conditions. None of them desire any interruption, nor terror strikes, which could impact the flow of devotees. They are the simple, hard working Kashmiri’s, who represent the majority, seeking a better life for their kith and kin, however are overshadowed by the minority, throwing stones, indulging in violence or joining militancy.

For local traders, it is a bonanza in sales. With tourism on the wane, this is the market for handicrafts and all who attend always carry back memories of the darshan. Most commercial outlets in the state gain during this period. The locals are welcoming and have a positive attitude towards the participants. There are numerous reports of locals assisting yatris stranded or injured due to accidents, as had occurred on Sunday. It is only the very few, instigated by the pro-Pak separatists or terrorists who seek to target simple yatris’, with ulterior motives.

At the central government level, the yatra is a part of the national calendar, drawing the faithful from across the country, to participate in an annual pilgrimage, which has continued uninterrupted in recent times. Apart from its religious significance, it is an indicator of the government’s determination of ensuring religious diversity of the nation even in remote and troubled areas.

Thus, immense precautions are taken at every stage while catering for boarding, transportation, medical emergencies and security of those participating. For the organizers, it would always be sleepless nights, as there are multiple challenges to overcome and innumerable contingencies to cater for, in addition to coordinating actions and activities of a variety of agencies.

For Pakistan and its small band of terrorists operating within Kashmir, it offers a large movement of unarmed public, representing almost all parts of the nation transiting on known routes daily. They realize that any incident or strike on this religious pilgrimage would give them disproportionate publicity. Further, incidents like the attack this year, especially with a BJP government at the centre could give it a religious character resulting in the targeting of minorities, thus enhancing communal divide.

Hence, they issued a dictum to their inducted cadre to strike. Enhanced deployment of security forces, increased counter terrorism actions and multiple layers of counter infiltration grid, prior to the commencement of the yatra was solely undertaken to offset their plans. However, despite all efforts, there is always laxity, resulting in an untoward incident.

The incident involving the bus was one of those unplanned contingencies which occurred. The bus managed to break all security barriers and rules without raising eyebrows. It is a wakeup call for those involved in its conduct, that lapses can occur despite precautions. On the other hand, it also indicated the faith and trust of the bus passengers on local population, that they spent time shopping and sightseeing, unmindful of threats lurking around the corner. However, it was neither the bravado nor planning of the terrorists who struck the bus, resulting in casualties, but an opportunity which came their way, simply because the tourists believed they were safe, after all they were travelling within their own country.

Anti-national elements would continue to seek means to break the bonds which exist between the common Kashmiri and the rest of the nation, but would never be permitted to succeed. Everyone involved with its conduct would now enhance measures to prevent any reoccurrence as had happened. Those participating would also strictly follow security guidelines.

Despite the incident, the yatra must continue with equal determination and its importance must enhance with every passing year. It is an annual pilgrimage which is equally important for Kashmir and its populace, as it is for the nation. The recent incident brought all political parties together. Across the board condemnation and candle light vigils foiled plans of terrorists at creating a religious divide. India has proved, yet again, that it can and will remain united, despite attempts from across the border seeking to split the nation on a religion bias.

Towards a solution in Kashmir Bharat Shakti 14 Jul 17

Immense has been written and discussed on the future of Kashmir. There are two broad opinions being projected in social media by those following the current scenario in Kashmir. These can be divided into hard and soft options. The hard option talks of an immediate solution, which includes revoking article 370 (whether it can be, is another issue), creating secure colonies for Kashmiri Pundits and possibly even trifurcation of the state into three parts (again debateable legally on the issue of accession and merger), alongside enhancing military power to ensure the writ of the state is enforced. The soft option implies a steady move towards resolution, including first winning trust and resolving current issues. It avoids measures which could further alienate the population.

The second option implies moving steadily, rather than hastily as in the first, hence would be slow and regular setbacks must be expected. In both cases, enhancing military power to control militancy, giving a free hand to security forces to counter Pak’s aggressive designs and to control levels of violence remain the central theme. Endorsing the second option, its methodology I seek to discuss.

Clear lines are drawn when talks with stake holders are concerned. There is a school of thought which believes that the government must initiate dialogue with the Hurriyat and Pakistan, amongst others. This school is supported by the National Conference (NC) leadership, some elements of the Congress and PDP. Some out of the limelight politicians even rushed to meet the Hurriyat, but like those before them, returned empty handed and shamed. They believe that Pakistan and Hurriyat combined hold the key to the future of peace in J and K and hence are a part of the solution.

The present Modi government has clearly ruled out this school of thought. It firmly believes that talks with Pakistan cannot be conducted under the barrel of a gun, as every time it has taken a step forward, an incident vitiates the atmosphere. Further, unless offer for talks is supported by their army, albeit surreptitiously, it is unlikely to make any headway. The Hurriyat is unwilling to discuss within the gambit of the constitution as also refuses to condemn the violence, hence talks with them are futile. It is known that they are puppets of Pakistan and only have one thought, plebiscite, which is no longer possible. Hence, the government considers both as being a part of the problem. The two schools of thought are thus diametrically opposite. Therefore, a third school of thought needs to emerge.

Again, there are limited avenues for the third school. There is no second rung leadership which has the trust of the locals, mainly the youth, with whom the government could discuss, once it isolates the Hurriyat. The Hurriyat has ensured this. Political parties, including the two main valley ones, NC and PDP, are unwilling to participate, solely fearing political isolation. The youth presently agitating remain unorganized. Only a few thousand participate, holding the state and its population to ransom. Therefore, no single group is openly available for talks. Local militants are incapable of uniting akin to those in the North East, under a single banner, enabling talks. The only option for the centre, if it desires talks, is to create a group of its own comprising of respected elements within society. The difficulty is, nominating those who could influence the population. Presently, no such group appears visible in the near term.

The next aspect which needs to be considered is when does the government initiate dialogue, if any, to resolve the ongoing impasse. If it acts in the present volatile scenario, it could convey a message that it is initiating action solely because the Kashmir valley is slipping from its hands. Alternatively, it could wait for a semblance of near normalcy (complete normalcy is unlikely in the near future), then its actions could be considered being undertaken from a position of strength. This approach had succeeded in creating peace in other militancy affected areas in the North East and Punjab, where the army created conditions of near normalcy, forcing militant groups onto the defensive, permitting the government to initiate dialogue. In every case the government was patient and awaited the right opportunity, however, in a modern communication driven world, where social media rules, such patience may not be feasible, hence the government may be rushed.

Pakistan is aware of the options open to the Indian government and has therefore created an unending supply of cannon fodder militants aiming to thwart these options. Its funding of the violence through the Hurriyat and pushing in militants, irrespective of failures and losses is solely aimed at denying the Indian army from gaining the upper hand. The deep state, comprising the Pak army and the ISI, is firm in its belief that their ultimate aim of wresting Kashmir would succeed employing their present approach, hence refuse to permit their own government from initiating dialogue. Thus, for the Indian government a stalemate remains on its plans for moving ahead, an action which suits the deep state as the Indian army continues to remain embroiled in Kashmir.

Thus, the government adopted an offensive policy for handling the present situation. It has permitted the army to enhance its offensive actions along the Line of Control (LoC), while inducting additional forces for counter infiltration and counter militancy operations. The intention is to make it costly for Pakistan in terms of destruction of defences, resulting in increased vulnerability in the long term, human costs and damage to its internal standing and reputation. Simultaneously the police and CRPF have been given leeway to control stone throwers, while the NIA has been unleashed to control funding and isolate the Hurriyat. This in nutshell appears to be the first phase of the government’s strategy.

With no suitable groups to initiate dialogue, the only option available is the announcement one, wherein the government unilaterally announces its initial suggestions, seeking views and talks with anyone willing to participate. This again is fraught with risks, as its offer could be twisted and exploited by opposition parties and anti-national elements. Hence the governments, both at the centre and the state are stalemated in their future course. An out of the box option could be tying the Hurriyat into such legal tangles and threatened with criminal actions to a level that they may be compelled to agree to a dialogue.

Before initiating any action, there are some pre-requisites which would need to be fulfilled. These include creating a conducive environment by reducing the numbers of infiltrated and local militants, containing localized violence and isolation of the Hurriyat. Secondly, is perception management. This needs to be handled at the state and national levels. At the national level, all television discussions stereotype Kashmiri’s as anti-nationals, whereas the fact is that a few thousand, unemployed and misguided youth, hold the state to ransom. Channels should be advised to select common youth, seeking a brighter future and a peaceful environment to share their views, rather than always selecting the same anti-national activists.

Simultaneously at the state level, activities which involve the youth should be enhanced. The army has proved time and again that sporting events have been great successes, even in troubled times in the valley, and witnessed wide participation while enhancing bonding, hence need to be increased manifold. The presence of thousands of youth despite calls for boycott at recruitment rallies for the army and police indicates desperation for a better life, sans violence. Hence enhancing employment opportunities is essential.

What can the government offer, which could be acceptable by the mass, barring the pro-Pak Hurriyat and a few thousand misguided local militants and their supporters. Offers for development have regularly been made, funds pumped in, but corruption and bad governance has ensured that the local Kashmiri is denied benefits. Not much has changed in rural areas. The government cannot offer plebiscite nor freedom, however can initiate action to build confidence and allay fears which exist in local minds.

J and K is the only state which acceded but did not merge, implying it has maintained its pre-independence boundaries (while those of other states have been regularly altered as per national requirements), has its original flag and constitution. Hence local fears emerge from losing this identity. Another fear is that a Hindu majority government at the centre, in coalition with the PDP may attempt to change demography and engulf a Muslim majority Kashmir. This fear was propagated by the NC and the Hurriyat, based on the assumption that the government was seeking to create secure colonies for Kashmiri Pundits and ex-servicemen. Rumour mongering only added fuel to fire on these issues. The government’s both at the centre and the state had to clarify, in parliament and state assembly, that there is no such intention. Thus, the government should first dispel such fear in open statements.

Secondly, the government needs to revisit the autonomy issue, mainly based on the terms of merger of the state. By granting autonomy in areas, which do not affect national decision making, to the state, it could recreate confidence that there are no plans afoot to disturb the status quo. Once these issues are addressed, confidence restored, then the government may move ahead with offers for development. Amongst the first actions in development is enhancing civic facilities including power generation, employment enhancement and better educational facilities. Providing corruption free governance, with visibility of government representatives would go a long way in restoring confidence. Simultaneously the state government must initiate talks with student bodies of colleges to understand grievances and seek remedies.

The move towards a solution may sound systematic; however, every step is fraught with pitfalls and roadblocks. Movement ahead must be in stages, one step at a time. Pak would continue to thwart its attempts, dislodge the process, but perseverance and diligence would ultimately pay. Confidence, building trust and good governance must move hand in hand. The role of the state government is key. It must seek to create a second rung of leadership, acceptable to the youth, with whom discussions can progress, with passage of time. Sole announcements from the podium, without a support base of leaders to convince the masses may also witness failure.

We need to remember that no problem was resolved overnight, The Naga insurgency is still being resolved. Here, with active interference by Pakistan, it may take longer. Sole military force has never been the answer, it has always been resolution by political means, the army only creating the environment. The nation needs to realize that all Kashmiri’s are not anti-India, but those who are, dominate headlines. Patience is the key, however unless initiation begins, a stalemate would continue. There is a light at the end of the tunnel, however, reaching it needs careful negotiation.

Countering separatists 05 Jul 17

A year ago, on July 8th the army eliminated Burhan Wani, the local commander of the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), an important militant face, in an encounter. His poster boy approach and vast use of social media had made him a household name across the valley. He was a known face of HuM though had rarely participated in operations, however was more visible in photographs, dressed in combat fatigues, an AK 47 by his side, accompanied by other militants, inciting youth to join the movement.

The police were unprepared and caught off guard by the masses which attended his funeral and the hot volatile summer which followed. It reacted to situations rather than being on top of it. The violence pushed all progress made by the army and the government back by time. It resulted in enhanced infiltration as the army concentrated on restoring normalcy. Burhan Wani did manage to woo some local youths into picking the gun, most of whom have since been eliminated. Even his reliever, Sabzar Bhat has been killed. The protests and street battles which followed Wani’s encounter killing, commenced at random, however was actively instigated by separatists and Pakistan, hence continued for months.

For the separatists and Pakistan, Wani was the militant whose elimination launched thousands of stones, compelling massive retaliation, resulting in deaths and pellet injuries to many participants of violence across the valley. For the instigators of the uprising, Kashmiri lives and injuries meant nothing, so long as India was forced to act, which enabled them to play to world galleries.

The separatists attempted to lead a few marches, knowing they would be prevented, hence were safe at home, while others were made cannon fodder. They only commented and incited, paying stone throwers with money routed through Pakistan. None of the injured claimed to have actively participated in the violence, but were supposedly bystanders, shot while observing others, leaving the rational Indian wondering if witnessing stone throwing and resultant firing was akin to watching a football or cricket match from the side lines. Even few TV channels enunciated this view, seeking sympathy for those who participated and suffered.

To encash on Burhan’s image, especially when the valley was on the boil, the Pakistan Prime Minister called him a ‘vibrant and charismatic leader’ whose ‘martyrdom became a rallying point for freedom loving people’. He even spoke about him in glowing terms in the UN general assembly, calling him a ‘young leader’, all of which was generally ignored.

The separatists also left no stone unturned to gain mileage from his encounter killing. The Hurriyat Conference chairman, Syed Ali Geelani announced in Aug last year that Burhan Wani would be honoured with the Tamga-e-Azeemat (Medal of Greatness) for his ‘dedication, sincerity and bravery’. Geelani went on to add, ‘His martyrdom has added a new life to the ongoing freedom struggle in J and K. He has united and strengthened the pro-freedom voice of this troubled state and the entire nation (referring to Pakistan) is feeling pride in paying tribute to this great mujahid’.

As the anniversary of his elimination approaches, there would be plans afoot in the valley and Pakistan to again reignite fires in Burhan’s memory, solely to tie down security forces. Supporters of the separatists located abroad, would be seeking to lower Indian image in various parts of the globe by a series of protests. Pak would use this occasion to restate its so-called support for the freedom struggle, knowing it is fake. It would attempt to instigate violence by social media, projecting Burhan as a martyr.

The separatists would cry and scream for protests, including during Friday prayers from the main mosques. Their stooges would seek to enhance funding for those indulging in violence. The intention of anti-national players would be to play on the sentiments of the youth, making them cannon fodder, while they stay safely away. Their ultimate aim would remain to compel Indian security forces to employ firearms, resulting in casualties, thus hoping to rekindle fires.

Security forces would be on high alert, expecting protests and violence, especially post Friday prayers a day before. With the ongoing Amarnath Yatra additional precautions would be in place. Pak and its deep state would have instructed its cadre in India to contemplate a major action in his memory to enhance local sentiments. There would possibly be increased attempts at infiltration close to this date to boost militant strength in the state.

Hence, while security forces would plan and be ready for handling the situation, within the nation, nationalist groups should organize counter moves with the aim of indicating solidarity with security forces and the government. This becomes more important in cities in J and K, as it would convey a strong message to anti-national elements within the state. Jammu should be a major rallying point for such supportive actions.

During this period, channels which seek TRPs by inviting pro-separatist and Pak based commentators in talk shows should change tack. This is the moment to call forward moderates, those seeking peace, alongside those who support security forces for discussions on the positive impacts of his elimination. Calling Pakistani commentators or anti-nationals and seeking to insult or degrade them, would still provide a platform for eulogizing Wani while insulting security forces and the government, hence should be avoided.

The NIA investigation into hawala funding is in progress. This is the moment to move those under investigation, including instigators within the Hurriyat to Delhi, sans communication, thus isolating Pak in being alone to try and incite violence. Restricting mobile networks would reduce the spread of rumours. Additional security measures including enhanced deployment to prevent increased violence would make Pak and its local supporters loose face, as they would have well laid out plans to use this opportunity to their advantage. With time in its favour and being forewarned, the government should be prepared, rather than react to the situation, as hitherto fore.

Impact of changed strategy in Kashmir The Excelsior 30 Jun 17

I had written in this column some time ago on the new strategy being implemented by the government for Kashmir. This strategy had a few basic elements. They included hard response to Pakistan along the LoC for attempted transgressions, multiple layered deployment for thwarting infiltration attempts, increased operations against terrorists operating in the valley, additional powers to police forces to control stone throwers and those interrupting army operations and releasing the NIA to curb hawala funding ultimately seeking to isolate the separatists.

The strategy involved all security agencies working hand in glove, to thwart designs of Pak and their Indian proxies. The strategy is witnessing success on ground, slowly paving the way for the government to move to its final stage of isolating separatists. It has placed Pak proxies including separatists in Kashmir on the defensive, compelling them to change their methodology, which too appears to be backfiring.

The offensive approach of the army has proved effective. They have successfully eliminated over seventy militants in approximately forty days and have a list of the balance, who can now only await their deaths. However, time is of essence. The Amaranth Yatra is scheduled to commence soon, before which major successes are essential thus pushing militants onto the back foot and into remote areas. The elimination of militants near the LoC are hampering Pak designs as they suffer losses at the entry stage itself. They would now be revisiting their infiltration routes and tactics, hence seeking alternate options. Strong retaliation is pushing them onto the defensive as they struggle to hide true casualty figures.

Contrary to earlier beliefs of more locals joining militant ranks in case of elimination of existing militants, is the fact that faster elimination of local militants, would deter fresh entrants as they would realize that picking the gun would considerably reduce life spans, an action few are willing to risk, after all life is precious, irrespective of sermons of religious zealots. The army’s success is also adversely affecting morale of local militants, who earlier felt they could gain the upper hand, but now solely resort to fire and run, fearing elimination.

However, realizing that the movement is slowly losing steam and impacting the morale of those who voluntarily participate in stone throwing and seek to hamper anti-militant operations, the local militants and the Hurriyat are compelled to change tack. They have now commenced targeting the local police, their own brethren and kith and kin, breaking the bond, which existed throughout troubled times in the valley. This year alone seventeen policemen have been martyred in the valley, a fairly high figure. It is a far cry of desperation from their earlier demands of asking policemen to leave the force.

The J and K police is an important element in anti-militancy operations. Inputs on movement of terrorists and possible routes in and out, flow from them. They are aware of details of families of each local militant and have the wherewithal to harass them to levels which could force hiding militants into committing errors, leading to faster elimination. They also have the onerous task of controlling stone throwers and those attempting to disrupt anti-militant operations. They have held their calm and handled their task with aplomb. However, regular targeting of police personnel could result in the police seeking revenge.

The ambush on a police team led by SHO Feroz Ahmed and the lynching of DSP Ayub Pandith in the vicinity of the Jama Masjid in Srinagar in recent times, could be the turning point. The patience of the police is wearing thin, locals from the villages and localities of the martyred policemen are changing their opinion on the struggle. They have commenced supporting the state, rather than those that target their own.

Kashmiriyat may return slowly in remote areas, spreading across cities with time, as desperation creeps into the movement and errors are committed. The police which remained silent on stone throwers and ring leaders would now commence cracking the whip. The police frustration reached a peak, compelling the DGP to comment that the time is now ripe for the security of the Hurriyat to be withdrawn.

The central government remains silent, biding its time, knowing the situation is slowly turning in its favour, creating the environment it seeks for resolution. The claim by the ISIS faction led by Zakir Musa, that it provided information leading to the elimination of six militants, is opening the rift between various groups. Pak would be compelled to direct its proxies within Kashmir to target Musa and his group, opening doors for an internal battle, enabling the security forces to commence gaining the upper hand.

The scene is being set for the climax, the final stage involving the arrest and relocation of the Hurriyat. Demands for removing their security cover is on the rise. The government possibly fears, that removing their security would make them vulnerable to being assassinated, resulting in increased violence. This may not be the case, as they are marked targets for the group headed by Musa, and being killed by their own brethren would have no major impact in the valley and even if it does, it would be temporary.

Most importantly, the valley has no second rung leadership which could even take over and guide the struggle, post the isolation and removal of the Hurriyat. Hence the intensity of the struggle may surge for a few days, however would soon wane, with no one to guide or pay those agitating. If it reoccurs, it would be uncoordinated and irregular. With a slow-down of hawala funds, it would become unsustainable in the long term. However, if the government dilly dallies and delays in taking advantage of the changing scenario, it may miss the bus.

Is the media distorting the reality in Kashmir? Daily O 17 Jun 17

Encounters with militants result in casualties to security forces. Incidents of stone throwing, protests and anti-national comments by the Hurriyat dominate headlines at regular intervals. Local poster boy militants, scared of challenging the army, secure in their hideouts or homes, issue statements on social media, asking people to support them, which are widely circulated. Security forces operations against them are hampered by stone throwing, videos of which spread, conveying a message that the youth of the state are anti-India. The LoC witnesses regular exchange of fire and encounters against infiltrating militants. The impression gathered is that Kashmir is on the boil.

Post every incident in the valley, debates and discussions on TV channels mostly end in shouting matches. No logic flows, neither does truth emerge, nor is there any solution. For maximum viewership and TRPs, channels select staunch anti-national figures to represent hardliners from the valley and nationalists who strongly oppose them on the other. The anti-nationals are the same every time, toeing the same line, shouting, screaming and accusing India. The result is that the common Indian feels that the complete state is up in arms against India. Is this reality?

A recent press release, post the visit of the central home secretary to J and K revealed that only students of four colleges were involved in agitations, other institutions ran normally. The attendance in state board exams was almost hundred percent. As per inputs by the ADGPI (the army’s public information department), most events organized by the army in rural Kashmir and Srinagar have witnessed large scale participation and been incident free. Events have included football tournaments between villages, youth festivals, skill training and medical camps amongst countless others. Even women football tournaments have been successfully conducted. Participation in recruitment rallies conducted by the local J and K police and army have witnessed immense attendance despite calls for bandhs and boycott. In the last army recruitment rally in Apr over nineteen thousand youth applied.

In any disturbed area, dominated by one religion, unemployed and religiously motivated youth would be readily available as cannon fodder for those opposing the state. Such youth would be handsomely paid to incite others to join the bandwagon and participate in anti-national activities. The agitating youth have never visited any other part of the nation, hence are unaware of opportunities available to those away from troubled spots. A small action by the army of sending twenty stone throwers on a tour outside the state could change minds. By burning schools and closing colleges, youth, who should have been studying and seeking a better life are forced onto the streets to participate. Lack of employment opportunities increase frustration and enhance participation in such actions.

The nation is aware that almost all militants are from Pakistan. Locals don the mantle of militancy for the glamour it provides. Funds flow from Pakistan as it seeks to continue burning the flames of unrest to suit its own goals for the region. Social media is used by Pakistan to project fake atrocities and anti-religious behaviour by security forces to incite youth to take to streets. Hurriyat leaders have openly admitted to burning schools and receiving funds enabling paying for anti-national actions in a sting operation conducted recently, resulting in the NIA launching investigations. Sermons by Pak paid Imams and Hurriyat leaders from Minbars of Mosques are solely aimed at enraging and inciting youth.

Do those opposing the state represent the majority or are we stereotyping? Is the visual media resorting to dividing the nation by its selection of staunch anti-nationals on its discussion panels? These are issues we need to consider.

The population in the Kashmir valley as per details available online is approximately one and a half crores. The 2011 Indian census states that about forty one percent of the population is below the age of twenty. The figures of this forty one percent in the valley can easily be calculated. However, those involved in stone throwing, joining militancy and adopting anti-national actions are only a miniscule of the population, maybe a couple of thousands. Hence, are we justified in stereotyping the entire valley as being anti-national.

There are large numbers of youth desiring to study and make a successful future away from the troubled region, however unable to leave either due to financial limitations or social obligations. There are possibly many more who seek peace and know that being a part of India is far better, yet are forced to remain silent, for fear of being singled out and targeted. Lieutenant Umar Fayaz, killed by militants for seeking a life as part of the Indian state was one such case as was the killing of Shabir Ahmed Dar, a policeman on leave, this week. There would be many more, but prevented from doing so. The fact that educated youth flock in mass numbers for recruitment rallies and skill training indicate just a tip of this iceberg of numbers. Their numbers are ignored while those indulging in violence gain prominence.

Simultaneously, visual media houses conduct of discussions is solely aimed at TRPs, without any consideration of the stereotyping impact being spread across the nation. It affects Kashmiri’s studying in universities across the nation, who become easy targets. Most who complete studies outside the state, work away, rather than return to Kashmir. No television channel selects moderates or those seeking a valley, sans violence, on its panels, for if it does so, the show would lose the impact they seek to create. I wonder what message such shows convey to moderates observing it in the valley. Would it indicate Indian desire to amalgamate them into the main stream or subjugate them.

We need to ask ourselves dispassionately a few questions. Are our assumptions that the valley is boiling correct or is it that a few thousands are holding the balance to ransom. Are locals volunteering in stone throwing or are they being compelled to participate by local thugs of localities or paid agents of the Hurriyat. Whenever there is a financial crunch with the Hurriyat, post demonetization and the crackdown on hawala actions by the NIA, stone throwing incidents reduce. We also know that in every crowded locality in each city, across the nation, we have thugs, who run their own fiefdoms and whom residents are scared to challenge, the valley would be no different.

Hence, we need to question ourselves on whether the majority of Kashmiri’s seek peace or desire a life of living under the barrel of the gun, either that of security forces or militants.

In case we desire to obtain a true picture, then television channels in debates should stop calling all residents of the state anti-nationals and include moderates or locals who are anti-militancy in their outlooks. Secondly, activities which unite the population must be increased manifold. The army has shown that sporting events brings everyone together, hence must be increased across the state. Simultaneously opening avenues for employment, within and outside would open doors to those seeking a better life. Bad governance by every party in power has been the bane of Kashmir. Can it improve? Finally, the government must reach out to students to resolve their grievances.

It is only when we connect the dots, compare the existing population and those involved, assess dispassionately, we may realize, that a few thousands, led by a handful, have ruined the lives of almost one and a half crores. It is these that we need to deal with firmly and hard, while safeguarding the majority. This message has been aptly stated by the army chief, but ignored by many. It needs serious consideration.

Irony, thy name is Kashmir Daily O 18 Jun 17

The last few days have witnessed a spurt of incidents in the valley. Increased attempts at infiltration have resulted in over fourteen militants killed. Junaid Matoo, a known militant with an immense bounty on his head was gunned down in an encounter. There was also a brutal ambush in which militants killed six policemen. An off-duty policeman, Shabir Ahmad Dar, was shot dead outside his house. During the encounter in which Matoo was killed, stone throwers attempted to disrupt the operation, resulting in the death of a close cousin of Shabir Ahmad Dar, Naseer Ahmad. Two deaths from the same family, one fighting for the nation, the other against. The irony of Kashmir.

The separatists, who feel that they represent the people of Kashmir, call for a bandh every time stone throwers are killed. They are innocents in their minds. When their own brethren, including Lieutenant Umar Fayaz, Shabir Dar and policemen doing their duty are killed, there is not a word of sorrow, nor a call for a bandh or even a show of a mark of respect. There is never any criticism from those who attack the state at the smallest opportunity, live on the largesse of the state, take money from Pakistan and incite youth to fight and die, while they keep their families in safe areas. The irony of Kashmir.

It is surprising that never have the family members of those killed or injured in stone throwing admitted that their wards were involved in these activities. They have always claimed that they were bystanders watching the drama unfold when they were shot. They have never explained as to why they were in the forefront of the crowd, after all, bullets fly straight. The message which the bandhs and protests aim to prove is that innocents were killed while being spectators at the site. Farooq Ahmad Dar, tied to a jeep by Major Gogoi claims he was an innocent bystander. Do people witness stone throwing as one witnesses a football game or a roadside show, when firing is likely at any moment. It only happens in Kashmir. The irony of Kashmir.

The Hurriyat admits in a sting operation that its own people have burnt schools in remote areas to prevent children from studying and choosing a career, as also receiving money from Pakistan to fund violence in the valley. They have never explained as to how they afforded to purchase cars worth twenty lakhs, without having even worked for a single day in their lives. Yet when the NIA questions them on its money laundering links, they claim they are being unjustly targeted. The irony of Kashmir.

Parents in the valley pray daily that their children grow into mature adults, seek a better life and career rather than one of violence, where death is imminent. Recruitment rallies attract thousands of youth, despite calls for boycott, indicating that the mass of humanity in the valley desires employment and security. Sporting events and outreach by the army attract active participation, thus conveying the message that the majority seeks diversion from daily problems. The stone throwers and militants number a few thousands, the majority stays away, knowing violence would only ruin the little left in their lives. Yet TV debates involve only hardliners, who spouse the separatists line, bellowing venom against the nation state, claiming they are innocent and being subjugated. The nation gathers the impression that the entire valley is up in arms. The irony of Kashmir.

Indian politicians, mainly from the opposition run to Srinagar to meet the Hurriyat and demand the government speaks to them. They are spurned, obtain nothing worthwhile, yet keep repeating their blunders. This is the same Hurriyat which cheers when Pakistan wins in cricket, takes money from them to incite youth to die and fails to criticise the killing of local security personnel while on leave. Instead of supporting the government and the army while it handles tough situations, politicians call the army chief names and discredit the organization for its efforts and sacrifices in the valley. The irony of Kashmir.

Pakistan send in infiltrators, many die in the attempt to enter. Those that do, would die here, never to return. It openly supports the breakup of India and the amalgamation of Kashmir with it. It ferments violence through hawala funds. Its troops keep violating the ceasefire and targeting Indian posts and villages close to the border. Yet National Conference leaders keep stating that Pakistan is the solution to a peaceful Kashmir and India must initiate talks. The irony of Kashmir.

Irony, thy name is Kashmir.

Srinagar should be the only capital of J and K The Statesman 13 Jun 17

Twice a year, the J and K state machinary moves along the national highway, spending summers in Srinagar and winters in Jammu. It maintains this practice of pre-Independence India. This shift of the state government, termed darbar move, involves movement of staff, families and resetting up government offices. While the move is in progress, the working of the government comes to a standstill. This move is also a colossal logistics exercise and an immense burden on the state exchequer.

It was commenced by Maharaja Gulab Singh in 1872 and was acceptable then, when the complete state, including POK and Gilgit Baltistan were one entity. The Maharaja was not answerable to anyone on expenditures incurred and manpower employed in this exercise. Further for a state to have the picturesque Kashmir valley as a part of it, how could the Maharaja avoid spending summers there and entertaining those who mattered. J and K has shrunk in size since independence. Hence is the darbar move still mandated in the present era of communications and if not, where should the state capital be located.

Expenditure is not involved in the movement alone. It includes hiring of accommodation for state government employees who have retained their families in one location and redeploy for the other, as also refurbishing and re-establishing offices for the staff. Losses and damages since the last stay need to be repaired or replaced. The greatest impact is the closure of government offices during this duration. Any accidents along the route, resulting in loss of stores and documents only increase problems. To add to expenditures is the regular move by employees, whose families are located at the earlier capital, on various official pretexts.

Further, space is always a constraint in any city, especially when development is the mantra across the nation. By maintaining two state capitals, with complete amenities, the government locks land and buildings for long durations (when the darbar shifts), denying space for other utilities. If this cost is added to the already planned expenditure, it would be much higher than anticipated. Though J and K receives the largest grant from the centre, it has yet to effectively utilize the same.

A unique problem facing the state is the vast variation between the populace of the three major regions comprising the state. Jammu and its surrounding districts are Hindu dominated, while Kashmir has a Moslem majority. Ladakh, though less developed, banks on tourism for income while its inhabitants are Buddhists and Shia’s. The requirements, needs and desires of all regions are at a variance.

Jammu would willingly accept removal of article 370, permitting large scale investments. It is the gateway to the state, hence important as all goods for the state, transit through it. It is possibly the best developed region of the state, though lacks employment avenues due to restrictions imposed by the article.

Srinagar and its surrounding districts are caught in the throes of militancy and agitation. While unemployment remains a major concern, the population has strong views on any attempts of abrogation of article 370. Ladakh has always felt that it receives step brotherly treatment and hence seeks a Union Territory status. Another unique factor, visible at this stage, is the reaction of the local public, as proved in their support to political parties in the last assembly elections. The BJP dominated the region south of Banihal and the PDP north of it. The Congress dominated Ladakh.

Moving the capital from one part of the state to the other has been disadvantageous for both regions. In every other state, the capital is always the showpiece of the government and extra expenditure is allocated for improving amenities and services in that city. Two large cities in any state, one of whom is the state capital, would indicate a marked difference in development and facilities, including road conditions. In the case of J and K, both cities, Jammu and Srinagar, are ignored as none is the permanent capital. Lack of facilities and poor availability of central services is evident. Hence, the residents of both cities are the losers.

Srinagar and the districts of the region have been in a state of turmoil since the early nineties. Pak sponsored terrorism has resulted in deaths, loss of revenue and stalled development, while inciting the youth to join the ranks of militants. Post the ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Pundits, an anti-India wave, led by religious fervour has begun sweeping the region. Since other parts of the state are now out of throes of militancy, the government needs to concentrate on the valley.

Winning the trust of the youth, engaging in dialogue across all spectrums of society, pushing forth a developmental agenda, providing a corruption free government and overseeing maintenance of law and order are priorities for the state government at this stage. The machinery of the state must be visible across the region for that to happen. It would never be possible if the government is visible only for limited durations.

Thus, ideally the state capital should permanently be located at Srinagar enabling the state machinery to oversee the situation and ensure an early return to normalcy. It would be able to ensure effective development of the region. It should release land and offices held by the government in Jammu to the centre to establish central facilities and institutes, thereby enhancing employment opportunities and reducing the impact of loss of the state capital for the region. With existing communication facilities and availability of faster modes of travel, the staff when required can move to different parts.

The funds saved from this unnecessary move could be better utilized for development and provision of amenities and facilities to the population of the state. If the government of India has stopped the British era tradition of moving from Delhi to the summer capital of Shimla, the J and K government should also consider the same, cease the darbar move and be based permanently in Srinagar.

What does Azadi mean to Kashmiri’s? The answer may be surprising. Daily O 10 Jun 17

Those of us who have visited Kashmir, even when it was peaceful or have served in the state, would always carry a few stark realities of the region. Firstly, as a tourist you are always asked, ‘have you have come from India’, and secondly, All India Radio was and continues to be termed as Radio Kashmir. That stated, they were always courteous and humane. Yet, from independence, Kashmiris have always considered themselves to be separate and distinct from the nation. This is largely due to Article 370, which has restricted others from being a part of the state. Another fact is that the identity issue only arises, once you cross the Banihal Pass.

This feeling only deepened with the onset of militancy and the ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Pundits. The generation now leading the agitation has witnessed calls for prayer for only one religion and hence believe that the region is solely theirs, converting the struggle into a religious one. It has been exploited by Pakistan playing the religion card, flushing the valley with money to pay for inciting violence, while simultaneously pushing in militants in the garb of supporting their struggle. With easy availability of channels from across the border and Saudi Arabia, strongly supporting Wahhabism and Jihad, the distance between the rest of India and Kashmir is only widening. It is further aggravated by hostile Imams belting hatred from the Mosques. The present agitation is based on the war cry of azadi, a term which is as confusing as it is simple. The word itself carries different meanings for locals, who are themselves unsure of what they desire.

Every incident of stone throwing by young students, moving from their place of education, is preceded by a ritual dance accompanied with cries of ‘azadi, azadi’. The steps are unique and the cry is in unison. The most common phrase which every child shouts is, ‘Go India, Go Back’, which is also painted in various parts of the state. Most don’t understand what it implies, but have learnt it and now use it. Flags being flown in protest are of Pakistan and the ISIS. The Pak national anthem has been played prior to local cricket matches and Pak team colours worn by players.

Hence the confusion which arises is whether the locals demand for azadi implies independence for Kashmir alone, joining Pak or seeking the old J and K as an independent state, amalgamating POK and Gilgit Baltistan. The latest demand is the establishment of a caliphate raised by a splinter militant group, Taliban-e-Kashmir, headed by Zakir Musa, the new poster boy of militancy, supported by a section of youth.

This piece is based on the term azadi and flows from interactions, online and personal, with Kashmiri youth and adults, all proponents of the struggle.

For most azadi implies freedom and when questioned further, it is being a separate nation. Surprisingly, there are no clear answers when told that POK and Gilgit Baltistan would never be left by Pak to create the erstwhile J and K and Kashmir alone can never survive. Even the separatists are scared to commit themselves, making loose statements that the population would decide whether it becomes an independent nation or it would join Pakistan. Angry comments and evasive answers follow when told that the UN resolution on plebiscite clearly stated that Kashmir is either a part of India or Pakistan, with no mention of an independent state, hence would be unacceptable to either. However, the bottom line is, they wish to be free from India. This is the crux- be free from India.

An educated central government employee even went on to suggest that India should capture POK and then enable J and K and POK to become a separate nation. When stated that for this to happen, they need to support India rather than fight it, there was no answer. Similarly, when told that POK has more Punjabi Moslems than locals, there was a mumbled answer stating that they would fight them next.

On the issue of joining Pakistan, the answer is fifty-fifty, though many opine that Pakistan is supporting their cause and would ultimately standby their final decision. When questioned about the missing J and K flag and Pak flags being flown, if the demand is for a separate nation, answers varied from ignorance to stating that Pak flag was flown solely to irritate India.

In no case do locals consider Jammu or Ladakh being a part of their so-called azad state. For them, Kashmir is a separate entity and would remain so. They seek freedom for Kashmir, solely on religious grounds, being a Moslem majority region, in a predominantly Hindu nation. Their main fear always remains of a Hindu dominated government changing local demography, especially now that it is a coalition partner in the state. Political statements on return of Kashmiri Pundits and establishment of ex-servicemen colonies only add to rumours of a changing demography. This is further impacted by Pak propaganda playing on similar lines. Thus, fear of losing religious identity drives the agitation.

I wonder if this fear is the result of historical baggage when an originally Muslim majority region of Kashmir was under the Dogra King of J and K, who opted to join Hindu majority India. It could be that this is what creates an inborn fear of a similar fate in the days ahead.

The militants too have added fuel to the existing state of confused minds. They are broadly in two categories. Majority are affiliated to Pak sponsored groups, hence support joining Pak, basically on religious ethnicity. A newly raised local outfit seeks a caliphate, based on ISIS ideology. Presently, differences have not broken out into the open, which may enhance the rift between groups, which could be exploited. Locals support the militancy, solely because of religious similarities, without considering the end result. Thus, it is azadi from India, next stage, unknown.

The youth have been misguided, pumped in with feeling of Jihad, with a belief that Pak supports their freedom struggle. They have no true idea of what they desire, solely the fact that a Moslem dominated Kashmir, should not remain a part of Hindu India. Whenever India gloats on the army’s success in eliminating militants, Pak media claims it as staged killing. This would be more acceptable locally than the true version, as news from Pak carries more weight than Indian news.

From the above, some facts emerge. It is azadi from India, with no clear future aim, hence indicating anger against the Indian state. The locals only seek azadi for Kashmir, not for complete J and K, hence do not consider the state as one entity. The youth are confused and incited by Pak propaganda, lure of easy money, spread of rumours and religious sentiments. Militancy is supported only because it assists in their struggle against the Indian state.

Pak has understood this aspect, realizing that it is a small region which is impacted by this struggle. Hence, has been recently attempting to increase infiltration attempts South of the Pir Panjal, seeking to spread militancy and impact demographic changes. These attempts are being ruthlessly curbed by India and would continue in the days ahead. This part of their strategy must fail.

This opens options and avenues to the government to seek solutions. Since they seek azadi for Kashmir, the government can seriously consider revoking article 370 for Jammu and Ladakh regions. This would indicate to the locals that Kashmir is a separate entity and a unique region in India. It would also enable development in other parts of the state where the article is lifted, creating a financial rift within the state, maybe impacting mindsets.

Secondly, interacting at the grassroots levels, mainly with students, in the form of open debates on their interpretation of azadi and why they desire it, could result in eliminating the fruitlessness of their actions. These forums could be exploited to drive home a point that independence of Kashmir would neither be acceptable to Pak or India, hence could lead them nowhere.

Thirdly, isolation of the Hurriyat, blocking their funding, would seriously impact violence in the state. Finally, perception management by projecting information of Pak’s duality in their independence struggle, mistreatment by militants and blocking foreign channels beaming anti-India and Jihadist propaganda may change mindsets.

Army’s reasons for defending Gogoi The Statesman 30 May 17

An incident can change a life, an incident can bring fame as also an incident can become a topic for a national debate which continues to simmer, long after it occurred, with no signs of dying down. The tying of Ahmed Dar to the jeep by Major Gogoi is one such. Proponents of the incident, salute the officer for his ingenuity and quick thinking, opponents including some senior veterans, criticize him for violating human rights. I am certain that if an online poll is conducted nationwide on pro or anti the action, the results would be astoundingly in his support.

The incident was explained in simple terms by an equally simple Gogoi to the media. He was detailed on a tactical mission to rescue a team of security and polling officials trapped in a room, surrounded by a mob of over four hundred, screaming for their blood, armed with stones and petrol bombs. His own Quick Reaction Team (QRT) was small but mobile. His intuitive actions had to be quick and fast, as delay in decision making could have resulted in multiple deaths, compelling the government to resort to firefighting at the national and international level. In such situations, it is instinct, based on experience and understanding which bring out the best in an individual.

The QRTs mine protected vehicle (which is heavier than others) got bogged down after the rescue and the men faced stones and petrol bombs. The soldiers were exposed as they attempted to free the vehicle. The mob was closing in. Major Gogoi then took the decision of tying an individual from the mob to his jeep, creating immediate confusion in local minds and drove to safety. Versions exist on whether Dar was an instigator or a bystander, who had defied militant diktat and cast his vote. The issue being raised is the action of tying.

To understand this confusion, we must place ourselves in the officer’s shoes. In the thick of chaos, with stones and petrol bombs raining down, is it feasible to question an individual on his intent and then take a call. It was simply instinct, right or wrong is not the question. It occurred in the midst of a crises when a rescue mission was in progress. Ahmed Dar, the victim, claims that he still carries mental scars of the incident. I wonder how many stones or petrol bombs fell on him. The answer is nil. He was tied to a jeep, with no bullets flying, taken some distance to the army camp, provided tea and released in the presence of his village elders, unharmed.

Scars would remain in the hearts of polling officials (who were also locals), ITBP and J and K police personnel, who were surrounded by a mob, baying for their blood. No one has ever considered the impact this incident would have on their mental state, as if they are cannon fodder. They were in the vehicle which was stuck and faced a flurry of stones and petrol bombs. Are they not humans and entitled human rights? Is it a crime to be nominated for polling duty? Sorry, pseudo human right activists, they are the ones who are scarred, having survived the most horrific moments of life. Ahmed Dar faced nothing, except being tied to a bonnet.

The other issue is that a simple tactical mission could have led to a strategic catastrophe had the officer not taken this decision. Had a petrol bomb struck the vehicle, casualties of security forces and polling officials would have been high and the only way out would have been opening fire. This could have resulted in dozens of casualties including locals, army and polling officials, as the army never carries pellet guns. It would have made international news and those criticizing the tying incident would have then stated, that the army was ruthless and employed excessive force.

For those who claim that this ‘action would haunt the army forever’ should remember that had firing occurred, the casualties would have ‘haunted the nation forever’ and resulted in an international furore. It would have become part of history books as the darkest day in the history of the Kashmir agitation and given a boost to Pakistan, the Hurriyat and the agitators. This one action, prevented that from happening.

Our critics possess tactical mindsets, unwilling to expand to strategic levels and access the aftermath in case Gogoi had behaved as expected. This is exactly what the army chief stated in his interview a few days ago. All I read in statements of those opposing is violation of human rights. It is easy to sit back and criticize decisions taken under duress and pressure. Tough situations demand tough and timely decisions, something which only leaders do. Gogoi took a decision in a difficult situation and deserves national applaud.

The other criticism doing the rounds is the army commending the officer for his action. This was intentional with multiple reasons. Firstly, as the COAS stated, it was to keep army morale high by conveying that the government, army and a majority of the nation stands by the officer. Secondly, was understanding that his action saved a strategic catastrophe and brought an extremely dangerous situation to control, without a single bullet being fired. Thirdly, for those who support the agitation, it implies that the army means business and would not permit agitators from gaining the upper hand. Finally, those who claim human rights were violated, that your perception is tactical and solely publicity seeking, hence we ignore you. Though symbolic, it was timely done.

For a soldier who is aware of such operations and pressure, I on behalf of almost all Indians salute Gogoi for his ingenuity and initiative. Major Gogoi, the nation is proud of you, you prevented casualties, rescued trapped comrades and saved lives of agitators. In the ultimate analysis, Human Rights activists have made Ahmed Dar a national figure, while the scarred polling officials who witnessed almost certain death, remain nameless and ignored. Sadly, a biased approach.

Countering Pak propaganda in the valley 24 May 17

The army and the nation have immense experience in handling insurgencies. We have been battling them since the fifties. The Naga insurgency began in 1958 and the Mizo uprising in 1966. A watershed in the history of the country occurred on 5 Mar 1966, when Indira Gandhi had the air force bomb Aizawl, the only time in Indian history, when we employed air power against our own. Both these have now been reasonably controlled, though incidents continue to occur occasionally. The Assam movement commenced in 1979 and situation is fairly normal. The Punjab insurgency rose to its peak in 1982 but was brought under control with the successful termination of Operation Blue Star in 1984. None of the movements were indigenous. There was always external support, either financially or with weapons and training.

In each case, the government acted by initiating talks when the army brought the situation under control. In every case, it was a combination of hard actions by the army accompanied by the employment of soft power. Social media had yet to gain root then. Information on army movements and actions spread by word of mouth, demonstrations and opposition to its cordon and search operations, especially in the North East, occurred even then, with equal ferocity, albeit different from stone throwing.

Insurgency in J and K began in the nineties and originated from the valley, spreading across the state. There was no border fencing, limited troop deployment, hence it spread rapidly, engulfing all districts, including Jammu. Most militants then were from Pak. Civilians were equally targeted as were security forces. The army moved in, slowly brought the situation under control, eliminated militancy from South of Pir Panjal and confined it to limited districts in the valley where it presently exists. The Hurriyat was then neither as powerful nor as united as they presently are. Governments in power, both at the state and centre, failed to take advantage of the situation, to resolve the issue with dialogue and seek a via media. This laxity and indecisiveness has resulted in the situation we now face.

The youth in the valley are presently being ignited by multiple means, sources unavailable at the commencement of the problem, nor even when the army regularly restored near normalcy. They are being incited by Pak sponsored Imams belting religious Jihad from the Minbars of the mosques, easily available Pak and Saudi TV channels glorifying Islam and Jihad, social media highlighting the glory of local militants, ISIS creation of the Caliphate and accompanied by money flowing freely for supporting violence and stone throwing, routed through the Hurriyat. Adding fuel to fire is the regular release of fake videos of atrocities and messages on a variety of social media sites, inciting the youth to come in mass numbers and prevent anti-militancy operations. The Indian press generally covers cities in the region and seeking high TRPs, portrays the problem as assuming dangerous proportions. In reality, the situation is different in cities and rural areas.

Simultaneously, there is a growing fear of the spread of ISIS culture in the valley, with some local militants terming the battle to be one of creating a Caliphate, contrary to the announcements of the Hurriyat. Thus, Kashmir is a complex battle ground, encompassing militancy and local youth agitations, all being fuelled by increasing reliance on social media.

In this scenario, the army appears to be losing the battle of social media, while remaining on top in controlling militancy. It’s attempts to highlight positive actions of itself and faith and trust of the rural Kashmiri on it, especially in times of crises seems to have missed their target. Similar is projection of financial impact on locals due to a second year running of no tourism. Local social media networks appear to have blanked out the positive image of the army. Surprisingly, even across the nation, this information has limited spread.

The army’s publicity cell, termed as the Additional Director General of Public Relations (ADGPI), releases details of activities and events the army conducts in rural areas of the state, where militancy prevails and the level of local participation in each of them. The cell maintains a twitter account and a Facebook page where it posts all details. However, despite its claim of large viewership, it has limited reach. A glance at the page would indicate the activities and the level of participation of the locals. An analysis of participation and faith on the army would reveal the impact it has had, compelling Syed Geelani of the Hurriyat, to announce that army run Goodwill schools should be boycotted.

The army has successfully conducted youth festivals, medical camps, skill development training, multiple children activities, knowledge enhancing tours across the nation for children from remote areas, inter village sports events, recruitment rallies and pre-selection training. Its super forty initiative, involved training forty Kashmiri students for the IIT JEE exams, of which twenty-eight succeeded. When schools in the valley were shut in the burning summer of 2016, army goodwill schools functioned unhindered. It even supported local talent in sports, Tajamul Islam, being an example. This young girl won the world sub-junior kick boxing title. None of the army conducted events were marred by protests or stone throwing. Each one had active participation.

Thus, the army needs to gear itself up for a battle of minds as the city youth continue to be misguided. It needs to be prepared for multiple challenges in the social media field. It has to counter false Pak propaganda, anti-national videos emerging from local militants, as also project its own events positively. Interviews, albeit hiding the identity of those who benefited from its facilities or who were provided succour need to be projected through every possible media. Simultaneously, it needs to counter the separatists, proving their hypocrisy. This action must gain prominence locally, options for doing so are known and must be exploited. Its social media strategy must be well-crafted, implemented by professionals. Whether it employs its existing departments or creates one specifically for this task, is an internal decision, however, it must implement it as of yesterday.

The other side of the Kashmir story The Statesman 25 Apr 17

The recent by polls in Srinagar and resultant videos dominated news headlines for all the wrong reasons. Holding elections in a strife torn region was a wrong decision to start with. Even the state had protested to the Election Commission (EC). However, for the EC and the government, it was a tough choice. Delaying elections would give the opposition including the National Conference (NC) and pro-Pak separatists more ammunition, claiming India differentiates Kashmir from the rest. Prepoll violence, a day before, when eight protestors were killed in police firing and scores including police and CRPF personnel injured should have been the trigger to call of elections. EC failed to read the scenario and act in time, resulting in only seven percent polling. With time this would haunt the government.

A flood of videos began emerging, some showing security personnel’s containing agitators and some of Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) and police personnel being heckled, manhandled and assaulted by locals. However, the video which grabbed national headlines, resulting in widespread debates and writings, containing contrary views, was the video of a local, Farooq Ahmed Dar, being tied to the front of a jeep. Most critics of the action termed it as ‘employment of a human shield by the army’. Amongst the critics were also few veterans, who opined that this video would haunt the army for ages. Opposition parties and armchair strategists termed it as shameful for the army, some claiming that the army has become anti-national and lost the goodwill of the locals.

However, within the nation, from all walks of life, the army received immense support. The nation stood as one in support of the young major who took this decisive step, irrespective of those who criticized. The hierarchy of the army and the government took a firm decision to support him. However, as a routine and possibly to strengthen its stand for any future legal engagement, the army has ordered a Court of Inquiry (COI) to enquire into the circumstances leading to the incident.

For those who pass judgements in haste and resort to bashing organizations only to project a ‘holier than thou image’, it is essential to understand the circumstances under which the incident occurred. Many versions are afloat, however for a layman the situation can be easily explained. It was election day and violence was in the air. Mobs were moving around, targeting polling booths, preventing people from voting and attacking security personnel at random.

As per EC ruling, security to polling booths is to be provided by CAPF and local police. The army is only in an area domination role, to prevent any militant attack. In one polling booth in Budgam, ITBP and police personnel were surrounded by a violent, screaming mob of over five hundred, threatening them. There was fear that they could be lynched. They appealed to the army for assistance and the army reacted. A Quick Reaction Team (QRT) under a major, in the vicinity, was tasked to rescue the trapped personnel.

Here is where there is a variation on what transpired. Some claim that the individual was picked up while returning from voting, while the army version states that he was one of the stone throwers and hence detained. The version irrespective, the situation was grave. The QRT was small and light, the mob large. Under normal circumstances, the trapped personnel of CAPF and police, feeling threatened by the mob, could have opened indiscriminate firing in self-defence, resulting in casualties, however, ultimately the mob would have prevailed and they would have become casualties, possibly even killed.

The officer would have been compelled to break into this mass of violent humanity only by opening fire, thus adding to casualties. Such an incident would have been headlines across the globe and made the day for Pakistan, as it could internationalize Indian highhandedness.

This innovative solution employed by the officer, at the spur of the moment, created a sudden fear psychosis amongst those surrounding the booth, that they opened a path for him, thus enabling rescue of the trapped staff without a shot being fired. This ingenious action prevented a catastrophe. The tied individual was taken back to the military camp, offered a cup of tea and then handed over to his village sarpanch, unharmed and secure.

To make a mountain out of this incident, was unwarranted. To compare the army to an occupation force, is unjustified. To blame it for being highhanded, is incorrect. These accusations flew from the pen and statements of those who have never tried to analyse the circumstances faced by the team moving in to rescue trapped brethren, only doing their assigned duty. If the army is being considered highhanded then the mob which surrounded the booth and threatened personnel inside, were no saints. Similarly, those which insulted and attacked CAPF personnel moving for polling duty, were not innocents. In a similar vein, those who pelt stones and interrupt operations against militants intentionally, enhancing army casualties, are no nationalists, nor are they simply misguided youth, as termed by the opposition.

In any form of law, assaulting government staff on duty is a crime, hence must be acted against. Showing restraint, avoiding opening fire except as a last resort, accepting injuries and insults, security forces have faced the brunt. Had the NC leadership and local media been the saner elements and played a soothing card, seeking to wean away youth from the path of self-destruction, Kashmir would not have been at the crossroads as it now is. If opposition parties and local media consider politics and being anti-security forces as the end all, then they should be termed as anti-nationals. At this juncture, instead of playing politics and one-up-man-ship all and sundry need to join hands to defuse the situation, prevent loss of lives and injuries to youth. The youth are our future, they need to be educated, not turned against the state, misguided and made cannon fodder for Pakistan or their Hurriyat supporters.

Is Delhi losing the Kashmir plot? The Excelsior 19 Apr 17

Two videos, amongst many other similar clips, went viral on social media recently. The first was the manhandling of a CRPF jawan and the second of a stone thrower, tied to an army vehicle. The reactions of the media and politicians depended on whether they were pro or anti- government. It has also resulted in twitter battles between supporters and opponents of security operations in the valley. Linked to this, was the recently concluded by-polls for the Srinagar seat, which witnessed its lowest percentage of voting in three decades, amidst increased violence. The Anantnag by-poll now stand postponed to the latter part of May.

Calls for protests and stone throwing, disruption of the polling process and attacks on security personal increased fear within the local population, resulting in even those genuinely desirous of voting, staying away. Pro-Pak separatists and Farooq Abdullah claim India is losing control over Kashmir, while opposition leaders blame the present BJP-PDP government of having lost the trust of the population.

Is the present scenario a sign that the government is losing the Kashmir plot? Many strategic writers in the country too are seeking answers to the same question, while demanding that the government reassess its Kashmir strategy. Suggestions vary between adopting a harder approach to initiating talks with anti-national elements. There is no doubt that the situation has deteriorated in recent times, with locals becoming bolder in challenging the authority of the state. Most injuries and deaths happen to youth, who in their exuberance stand tall in front, pelting stones and inviting bullets, while instigators remain in the background. Within the country, increased targeting of security forces, enhances the divide between a sterner stance and calls for dialogue.

The situation was not ripe for elections to be held from the start. Stone throwing and anti-India sentiments were on the ascendancy in South Kashmir, since the encounter killing of Burhan Wani. It was evident, when locals arrived in large numbers aiming to disrupt encounters and challenge the might of security forces. Pushing for polls now was a mistake, though the Election Commission (EC) had limited choices, as elections had to be held simultaneously across the nation. Attempts at booth ransacking and disruptions, resulting in the deaths of eight locals and scores including security personal injured, just a day prior, was signal enough for the EC to reconsider its decision of going ahead with the polls. It had to push ahead, to avoid sending a wrong message. It did react subsequently and postponed by-polls for Anantnag.

Open funding from across the border, increased anti-national comments by separatists and politicians desperately seeking votes, as also lack of employment opportunities have only incensed the youth. Locals turned militants continue to guide them in disrupting security force operations, employing mobile communication channels. Smart phones upload videos from both sides, strong actions by security forces and violent protests by the youth. Local Hurriyat representatives are becoming popular with the population, since they provide the funding, but hide in the background, pushing innocents into the line of fire. Pakistan has succeeded in moving the agitation away from the hands of separatists into that of local Hurriyat leaders and the Jamaat-e-Islami, thus ensuring that even if the leaders are sequestered, there would be minimum impact. Thus, talks are ruled out.

The government has attempted every democratic means seeking to break the impasse but has yet to succeed. In any other part of the country, it would have come down heavily, employing all resources and power of the state, to return normalcy to the region. However, sensitivity of the valley, increased national and international focus, as also a desire to maintain a tolerant image despite rising adversity (since the central government is being projected as pro-Hindutva), has compelled it to maintain a studied silence.

The national leadership would be aware of changing local developments and direction the movement is taking. It has its agencies with multiple sources, including boots on the ground, to provide it requisite inputs. Jumping in to act early would never do any good. Most of us have faded memories, but just to refresh, the situation was reversed in the valley in the nineties, when it was far worse. Nagaland and Mizoram were brought back from the brink. Though awareness levels are higher and communication means vastly improved, yet the centre can employ its full power, with direct control over the state or affected areas, with every form of restrictions. The present may appear disastrous for a few, not for the government. The Prime Minister has so far only spoken words of encouragement, seeking to explain and convince the population of the futility of engaging the might of the state. Rarely have negative comments flowed from Delhi. Financial and other support continues to pour into the region.

Talks are irrelevant, as Pak continues to instigate, Kulbhushan Jadav, being the latest in the list. Within the nation, demands for firm and strict action are on the increase, voices for maintaining calm are being side lined, strengthening the hands of the government. The government would have a combination of military and non-military options. The force option is always the last, but with increased targeting of civilians and security forces, including support to militants, it may be moved up the ladder. The military can provide the right environment, which it has done on numerous occasions, but political parties including those in the opposition and criticizing presently, have failed to capitalize. A pure military option is never the answer.

For once, a united opposition demands Governor’s rule, which the government presently ignores. It may be necessary at a later stage. Ultimately the government will have to ensure that the writ of the state runs in the region, irrespective of cost. In this scenario, it could ignore any criticism either at the national or international level. The government would resort to right action at the appropriate time. No government can permit any part of the country to consider secession, irrespective of the cause. Hence, pessimists need to reconsider their views and comments.

A worrying factor is that those agitating remain a miniscule, hence any action would harm the majority. The state economy is suffering as tourism, the principal revenue earner, is shunned due to fear. The youth, who have been incited to believe that they could succeed, would suffer as the cycle of violence would lead to closure of educational institutions. Those inciting the youth are aware that the government would ultimately respond as it cannot appear to be weak, hence have ensured that their kith and kin are away from this violent atmosphere and they themselves remain in the background. When the pressure mounts, the instigators would vanish, to re-emerge once again at a different time and place.

As a positive note, the agitation and targeting of security forces has enhanced nationalism and bonding within the nation, bringing together elements which initially opposed the centre. As nationalism continues to rise, Kashmiri’s working or studying anywhere in the country are likely to be stereotyped as anti-national and targeted, which would cause further alienation.

In this complex scenario, there is still a glimmer of hope that stake holders realize the movement is heading for a showdown, which would cause more harm than good, hence saner elements need to take the lead to diffuse the situation, before it reaches boiling point. Delhi has not lost the Kashmir plot but is awaiting the appropriate moment to act and would act decisively.

Jammu needs to raise its voice The Excelsior 10 Mar 17

J and K is a unique state in the country, almost a nation within a nation. Its three entities, Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh are each distinct in character and possess no commonality. Jammu, being a major rail and road head, located at the entrance of the state, is a funnel through which all commodities transiting to Kashmir and Ladakh pass. The other two sectors of the state are mountainous, underdeveloped and possess almost no industry, except handloom and tourism. Article 370 provides the state autonomy in administration and safeguards its citizens against outside settlers.

Jammu’s population is largely Hindu and politically it has been a bastion for non—Kashmiri parties. Ladakh comprises of Buddhists and Shia Moslems, distinct from Kashmir, where post the forced migration of Kashmiri Pundits, the population remains predominantly Sunni. Insurgency exists only in the Kashmir valley, where some segment of its population, identify themselves more with Pakistan. The writ of the Hurriyat runs is only five districts of the valley, where militancy still has local support. The last elections clearly separated the two parties which presently form the government in the state. The BJP swept the Jammu region, while the PDP won handsomely in Kashmir. The Congress won all four seats of Ladakh. The PDP-BJP alliance has been kept together by the willpower of the center and the personal involvement of the PM, which has provided the Chief Minister an almost free hand in running the state.

Challenges facing this immensely divergent state are numerous as each part of it views itself in isolation. While Ladakh seeks to be considered a union territory, Jammu desires enhanced development and freedom from Kashmir hegemony. Kashmir seeks to oppose any actions by the state to bring about normalcy and development, preferring to remain mired in the past. The main opposition party, the NC, desperate to seek power, after being routed across the state, is willing to truck with any power in the valley, including anti-national separatists, to enhance problems for the government and through it, the army battling militancy, without any consideration on the lives and future of the local youth.

No other state in the country possess such diversity and varied demands and outlook, hence remains a challenge for the coalition in power.

Development being witnessed across the country seems to have bypassed the state, mainly due to its divisive status. No previous state government ever seriously contributed to its development, willing to bide their time, misuse central funds, regain power and continue ruling the state. The NC leadership remained silent when atrocities were committed on Kashmiri pundits, Sikhs being massacred and militancy began rearing its ugly head. A clear case of ‘Nero fiddling while Rome burned’. The fact that it is a border state, with Pakistan eyeing the valley, only adds to its woes.

In addition is the ever-raging battle on Article 370. While it does empower the local resident, however has always been an impediment to growth. Major issues which need to be considered for the future of the state, is changing demography and the relevance of article 370 in present times.

Kashmir, post the forced migration of Pundits and Sikhs has a skewed demography, which makes it ideal for manipulation by Pakistan and anti-national elements. Militancy which reared its head in the late eighties has witnessed ups and downs. The violent summer of 2016, post the encounter killing of Burhan Wani and flash mob actions of stone throwing and interrupting anti-militancy operations, has cast an eerie eye on its future. It will only witness higher levels of crackdowns and enhanced force deployment as security forces battle an increase in militancy with the onset of summer. The population and political parties fiercely support article 370 and strongly resist attempts to create safe colonies for Kashmiri pundits and Ex-Service Men residents of the state, thus ensuring that the existing skewed profile of the population continues.

Jammu, the only progressive region of the state is impacted by demographic changes caused by the influx of population from the troubled valley and illegal Muslim immigration from Myanmar (Rohingya’s) and Bangladesh, as also restrictions imposed by article 370. Almost twenty new colonies of illegal immigrants have risen in the recent past, on the outskirts of the city. In most cases, they have been provided with facilities and funds, almost legalizing them. Many residents even possess adhar and voter IDs. The growth of madrassas and Masjids across the region have the locals worried.

In a release issued on 04 Mar, the relief and rehabilitation commissioner in Jammu stated that his office was witnessing a flurry of applications by people seeking to migrate from the valley, taking officials by surprise. The statement also claimed that over 1500 people, many amongst them Muslims, had submitted applications in the last ten days. Migration remains a sensitive issue amongst the local population. The mushrooming of illegal colonies and migration (legal and illegal) even raised hackles at the center, compelling the Home Minister to seek a report from the state on the subject, just last week.

The coalition government at the state has yet to implement action to reverse the changing environment. Article 370, more ideal for the valley has prevented the growth of Jammu into a major industrial hub, though militancy has reduced, with recent attacks solely aimed at security forces. However, the changing demography can open new avenues for increasing militant related activities, unless checked by local security agencies. While the Article ensures special powers to permanent residents, however impacts business. Investment is low due to restrictions imposed by the article, property prices fail to rise, as in other parts of the country and it remains a region mired in the past. Jammu is presently a market city catering for tourists, with almost no major industry to boost job opportunities to its burgeoning population, whereas its location, availability of resources and connectivity could ideally make it an industrial hub.

The government should consider amending the article selectively for the Jammu region to change the concept of development, as also implement forceful deportation of illegal migrants to safeguard its demography. A push for the same must come from the local populace, compelling the government to think and act, failing which the region will rapidly change in character and continue to lag as the rest of the nation develops by leaps and bounds.

A new approach the need for Kashmir The Statesman 19 Jul 16

The encounter killing of Hizb-ul- Mujahideen local commander and poster boy militant, Burhan Wani, led to widespread disturbances in Kashmir. There was a mass of humanity, mainly the youth who attended his funeral. Subsequently, the situation deteriorated at a rapid pace, which took security agencies by surprise. Though like in earlier militant funerals, a crowd was expected, however, the rapid deterioration was unexpected. It also impacted the Amarnath Yatra, which was in progress and had to be partially suspended. While for once, political parties did not openly exploit the situation, as is normally the case, however Pakistan did, with comments from their Prime Minister and foreign office, including raising it at the UN. Hafiz Saeed, founder of the LeT and Sayeed Salahuddin of the Hizb-ul- Mujahideen, both responsible for attacks on Indians, eulogised Wani jointly in POK.

This has not been the first time serious disturbances have rocked the valley. Post a fake encounter killing in 2010 and the subsequent accidental death of a school boy, Tufail Mattoo, as a result of teargas shelling during a protest, the valley was on the boil. By the time the situation returned normal over a hundred civilians were killed and many more wounded, including security personnel. Presently, there have been indicators that Kashmir was slowly boiling. The elimination of Wani was the tipping point.

Kashmir has been witnessing a changing militancy. Effective anti-infiltration measures had reduced the inflow of militants from Pakistan to a trickle, hence the balance began shifting to home grown terrorists. Wani was media savvy and unlike his predecessors openly flaunted his pictures on social media sites, thus enticing others to join the movement. He also represented a new breed of terrorists who were against formal talks on the Kashmir issue, but only a jihad. Hence the decision to eliminate him was logical.

An analysis of the situation in Kashmir would reveal that anger against the state was growing and can be partially justified. While other states have grown economically, Kashmir has remained wired to the past. There is lack of development and non-availability of opportunities, even for the educated. Basic facilities of electricity and water are erratic to state the least. Mobile connectivity and internet services, essential for the youth, are sporadic. The unemployed youth were further instigated by Imams and the Hurriyat. Thus they were emboldened to vent their frustration.

The younger generation born during the period of heightened militancy, have encountered security forces almost on a daily basis. They have been subjected to road blocks, house searches and witnessed encounters, hence, possess lesser fear of security forces. However, with Pakistan sponsorship of terrorism continuing, security can never be lax. This is Indian territory; thus terrorism can never be allowed to flourish. Stone pelting on security forces began in 2008. In most cases it occurred during protests or when the police broke unruly public gatherings by employing force. The past year has witnessed a new but dangerous trend. Locals come to encounter sites in large numbers and attempt to distract security forces by stone pelting, with the aim of enabling trapped militants to escape. This change was an indicator to the government, that support at the local level was moving towards militancy and away from the state.

It may appear that the entire unfolding of the incident was spontaneous and unorganized, however in all probability that may not be correct. While initially the violence was spontaneous, however subsequently the scenario changed. The mobs knew exactly when and where to strike, hence would have been advised from across or guided by militants in their ranks. The mobs attacked police stations, which during strife are devoid of manpower and security, as most personnel are deployed controlling the situation. Thus mobs were able to obtain weapons and ammunition, in one case over 70 weapons, which would subsequently be employed against security forces. In many cases militants fired and lobbed grenades using civilians as a cover and security forces retaliated. The innocent suffered, while militants escaped. At a number of places, while one group engaged security forces in localities, another attacked weakly held police stations, burnt it and looted weapons. Thus direct involvement of Pakistan is evident.

With Pakistan jumping onto the bandwagon and adding fuel to the fire, it would take some time before the protestors realize the futility of their actions. Statements emanating from Pakistan give false hope to those protesting. In reality, Pakistan only resorts to beating of drums, which implies nothing. Post Kargil, Pakistan realized that military action is not an option and the only way ahead is by vitiating the atmosphere in the valley. Their present action has only worsened an already charged international environment and pushed any plans of proposed talks further away.

The protests have proved that there is breakdown of communication between the political leadership and the populace. This is amongst the major causes for alienation and rapid deterioration of law and order. Intelligence agencies, both at the state and centre failed to comprehend the growing anti- security forces simmer in spite of recent incidents during encounters and funerals of militants. The maximum injured were due to pellets fired by CRPF and police forces. This weapon may be reconsidered for crowd control in the future, or the police trained to employ it correctly.

The centre, while warning Pakistan to desist from interfering, also needs to monitor developmental projects and increase interaction with the populace. The new government at the state presently has its hands full. Unless it moves fast, re-establishes contact at the grass root level, enhances development, invests in infrastructure and introduces populist schemes, Kashmir will only move further downhill. Simultaneously, a positive media campaign must be launched projecting the negative impact of militancy on development and creation of infrastructure. We need to wake up and act, well before Kashmir goes further downhill.