Changing political landscape in West Asia Bharat Shakti 03 Dec 18
Changing political landscape in West Asia Bharat Shakti 03 Dec 18
The political climate in West Asia is changing rapidly. Israel, a sworn enemy of the Arab states, less Egypt and Jordan, is now an accepted ally. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaging it, even claiming it has the right to exist. Reports of an Israeli aircraft landing in Islamabad for a short duration caused turmoil within the country. Religious leaders, possessing an anti-Israel bias questioned government motives. The government denied, Israel as is its policy, neither commented, accepted or denied. Israel has never accepted, denied or commented even on its nuclear status, letting those interested make their own guesses.
Reports from Tel Aviv state that in Jun this year, Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu, met the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman in Amman, the Jordanian capital. Though formal relations do not exist between them, there are reports of them seeking to establish relations. It does appear that Riyadh may be induced by the US to play a key role in an Israel-Palestinian solution. Information also states that the secret service of Saudi and UAE were working with Mossad to counter Iran.
In end Oct, Netanyahu also visited Oman and met its ruler, Sultan Qaboos Bin Said. The information was only released once the Israeli PM had landed back. This was the same time, when reports flowed of the Israeli aircraft landing in Pak. Netanyahu’s visit came days after the Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas, had visited Oman. Closely following this visit was the first participation by the Israeli Judo team in the Abu Dhabi grand slam tournament.
The recent violence between the Hamas and Israel was quickly subdued when Egypt brokered a ceasefire, even leading to the resignation of the Israeli defence Minister and placing the government on a shaky wicket with the slimmest of margins. The minister resigned claiming that he would not be able to justify the same to those residents who faced the onslaught of Hamas’s rockets. The ceasefire was followed by Qatar’s USD 15 Million cash infusion to Palestinian civil servants in the Gaza strip.
The Palestinian president, Mohamoud Abbas, had slashed Gaza budgets mainly because it was controlled by Hamas, whom he considers as rivals. This beggared thousands of government employees, leading to months of protests. With this infusion, there is likely to be an improvement. Hamas has been receiving secret funding from Iran, further angering the Israeli leadership.
The reason for the sudden emergence of Israel into the changing landscape of West Asia is twofold. The first is the support and backing from the present US leadership and the second is the common enmity towards Iran. The US is the guarantor of the Saudi regime and hence could coax Saudi to change tune. Saudi Arabia is also presently undergoing its worst diplomatic crises since 2001, with the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. It desperately needs the backing of the US to pull out of the crises, with most nations gunning for the crown prince, the apparent heir to the throne.
Iran, despite the imposition of sanctions by the US, post its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, is still not a spent force. The enmity between Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iran for domination of the region continues. Iran’s support to the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, threaten Riyadh. The rebels have launched multiple missiles in Saudi Arabia, resulting in Riyadh entering the Yemen conflict. It has attempted to drag Pak into it, which Pak has so far resisted.
In Bahrain and the Eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia, Iran supports the Shia population to undermine local governments. The threat became so severe that in 2011, Riyadh sent its forces to quell the Shia uprising in Bahrain.
Iran supports the Hezbollah in Lebanon, whom it arms and finances. The Hezbollah, like Iran, seeks the end of the Jewish state. In addition is its funding of the Hamas. Israel believes that the Syrian rebels that Iran supports within the country alongside Iranian soldiers in Syria could be directed towards Israel once the war in Syria draws to a close.
This fear prompted Israel to launch strikes against Iranian targets in Syria. Initially, Israel did not admit to its strikes, but subsequently it has. Iran has been launching rockets against the Israeli forces deployed on the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the 1967 war and has held onto it since.
The world is moving away from traditional international relations to real politic. The nations which for decades had stood by the Palestinian cause have begun drifting towards their main adversary Israel. They would now seek to participate more willingly to broker an agreement between the Palestinians and Israel, more likely on Israel terms rather than the Palestinians.
The Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) which had earlier backed the Palestinian cause would no longer be a united organization willing to support them. They even refused to criticise China for its forcible conversion of Uyghurs, their own Muslim community. The non-aligned is almost defunct. Apart from meeting on the side lines of the UN, it has no teeth left.
Palestine is now almost alone. Nations like Pakistan, claiming to be anti-Israel and pro-Palestine anyway lack a voice. Their anti-Israel approach would leave them more isolated in the Arab world. Pak does not have the diplomatic standing to follow the Indian approach of balancing its relations with both nations. While its government may desire to follow the Saudi line, its hardliners would object.
India has maintained a steady distance in the resolution of the crises, though it offers them aid. Rich Arab states on whom Palestine backed for funds are slowly moving into Israel’s arms. Thus, pressure would soon commence to build on Palestine to move forward for talks, the result of which would be in favour of Israel.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army