Pakistan in an election year The Statesman 29 Jan 19
Pakistan in an election year 29 Jan 19
2018 was the election year in Pak and Imran Khan, the puppet of the army chief, took over the mantle of the prime minister. In his opening remarks, as the prime minister, he spoke of peace with India and offered talks. His even sent a letter for dialogue between the two foreign ministers on the side lines of the UN General Assembly session, which India rejected.
The offer for talks came with no guarantee of Pak offering to dispel Indian concerns about its current activities of festering terrorism in the valley and acting against the perpetrators of Mumbai attacks. On the other hand, Pak has continuously been blaming India for their internal ills, whether it be the Baluchistan Freedom Fighters or the Tehreek-e-Taliban (Pakistan). It recently blamed India for planning and plotting the Karachi attack on the Chinese consulate, which India denied.
The opening of the Kartarpur corridor was a major step. It fulfilled a long-standing demand of the Sikh Community. Interestingly, the initial announcement for opening the corridor was made by their army chief to Navjot Singh Sidhu, during the swearing in ceremony of Imran Khan.
The official communique of the corridor was the result of effective diplomacy, with both nations announcing near simultaneously the ground-breaking ceremony. The presence of anti-India and pro-Khalistan leader Gopal Singh Chawla, at the Pakistan end of the ceremony was a setback.
The beginning of the current year has seen multiple developments in Pak. The country is in dire financial straits and as per Pakistan’s Sind Chief Minister, Imran Khan is running with a ‘begging bowl across the world’, seeking to collect funds to stave off an adverse economic crises. It has received some relief from Saudi Arabia, UAE and China. The Pak finance minister announced that Pak is contemplating avoiding going to the IMF at present. Funds provided in dire needs always come with riders, never free. These would flow with time.
In this dire financial state, the Pak army has announced its intention to procure 600 battle tanks and other equipment, including 150mm Self-Propelled Mike 10 Guns from Italy and Air Defence Equipment from China. There are reports of some guns from Italy having arrived. It appears to be a desperate attempt to offset some of the conventional edge of the army, in India’s favour.
Pak has also announced plans to procure 62 JF 17 jets from China as India enhances its airpower with the induction of Rafale and Tejas aircraft. A report in the Chinese press recently stated that China has begun construction of four ‘most advanced’ naval warships for Pakistan. These would be capable of anti-ship, anti-submarine and air defence operations.
With the present state of its economy how would the nation be able to pay for these procurements remains to be seen. These may be just announcements as the loans being received are insufficient for diverting funds for defence procurements. China which is Pak’s main supplier may be willing to supply hardware at lower cost, as it benefits them, since Indian military preparedness and capability development is impacted, as India needs to cater for both fronts. However, nothing comes free and without something in return.
Imran has continuously criticized India for its handling of the Kashmir situation and openly supported the Kashmir cause. He has repeatedly been stating that the anti-Pak rhetoric in Indian media and India’s refusal to commence talks has been due to impending elections.
India is presently vulnerable. The nation moves into the election mode with national security, including procurement of military hardware, and relations with Pakistan, including the successful conduct of the surgical strike, dominating the agenda of campaigning. The BJP would project its firm handling of Pak as its strength, while the opposition would seek to criticize, claiming this approach has had no effect and tensions along the border and the situation in Kashmir have remained unchanged.
The present government has firmly stated that there can be no talks unless Pak stops abetting terror in the valley and acts against the perpetrators of Mumbai. In a recent communique it released five reasons which indicate that Pak has no desire for peace and its claims for talks are only a whitewash. It has also given a free hand to the army to act along the border. All its actions, including sanctioning of the surgical strike, have irked Pak.
The government has refused to even consider accepting to attend the SAARC summit, which has placed Pak in a disadvantageous position. It has used foreign policy as a tool to isolate Pak in the diplomatic arena, leaving it almost alone with only a few friends. Despite China’s support, India has pushed quietly to have Pak placed on the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) Grey List. Pak is presently struggling to exit this list. There may be a thaw in US-Pak relations as the US desperation to withdraw from Afghanistan increases.
For Pak, a change of government in India or a coalition government, with a weak leader at the helm, would be of immense advantage, as earlier experiences have indicated. Hence, it would be considering its options to create an environment, which could lead to such a government formation. It is aware that any action which could cause casualties close to polling time could impact elections and possibly change the political climate at the apex. While Indian security forces would remain on high alert to thwart such attempts, they are always possible.
India would need to use every forum to send across a clear message to Pak that any misadventure, especially close to elections would be extremely costly and India would be compelled to act firmly, disregarding the nuclear threat which Pak continues to project. The message must be clear, concise and firm, sinking into the heads of the military leadership of Pak.
This warning has been sounded regularly by General Rawat, the army chief. He has been stating that any misadventure by Pak would be responded to. It needs to be continuously projected and the army must plan to conduct exercises close to the Pak border near elections in a show of strength, to deter Pak.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army