Hitting Pak where it hurts Bharat Shakti 27 Feb 19
Hitting Pak where it hurts Bharat Shakti 27 Feb 19
The suicide attack on the CRPF convoy in Pulwama has raised the stakes between India and Pak. Public demand for retribution for the strike was on the rise. The Prime Minister while pushing forth economic and diplomatic actions left the military option to the armed forces themselves. For most Indians, the military option is the one which is most desired.
The armed forces acted twelve days after the strike by launching an air strike on a known terrorist camp eliminating it all terrorists located there. While exact figures may not be available, it is estimated to be in the range of 200-300 terrorists. While this was an expected option it however may not alone be able to force Pak to change and act.
The two nations have been at one another’s throat from the time of independence. Whether it be the UN General Assembly, visit by any leader to either country or a forum where one nation is participating, OIC, BIMSTEC, BRICs are some examples, the two continue to target one another.
The border remains active and both blame the other for fermenting trouble in their respective countries. With India’s diplomatic push, Pak faces near isolation, hence confines itself to supporting terror groups in the valley, while seeking to revive militancy in Punjab. Its economy remains in doldrums, with Pak expending upto 32% of its planned expenditure on defence.
Pak’s attempts at blaming India for its internal ills has had no takers. Its weak defence by kidnapping Kulbhushan Jadhav from Iran’s Chabahar and projecting him as an Indian spy is only being accepted within the nation. All attempts at peace between the two have failed. The basic reason why the two nations can never talk is that one is controlled by the army with democracy only in name, while the other is a democracy where the army has no role.
Backdoor diplomacy has been an ongoing process. It would never be successful, unless the Pak army is on board. India on the other hand has politicians and Pak supporters in the valley who continue suggesting that unless India talks with Pak, Kashmir can never be resolved. The fact is that Pak continues with its strategy of seeking to enhance anti-India resentment in the valley, hoping India would lose patience, which is unlikely. Operations in the valley and ceasefire violations along the LoC would therefore continue unabated.
Hence, India should adopt actions which would impact the Pak public and organs of the government. In this approach, India should announce every action which it takes, conveying a strong measure. The Pak public must be made aware that any loss to them at the personal level due to Indian actions is only due to the stance and strategy adopted by their government, backed by the deep state. They must realize that their loss can be overcome only if they force their government to change.
The recent announcements of cancelling the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status, placing duty of 200% on Pak products and planning to use its complete share of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), was the first time such measures were openly announced. There are many more options.
The first measure to hurt the common Pak national is to stop the issuance of medical treatment visas. For Pak nationals, aware that their own healthcare system and hospitals are in poor shape and lack doctors, India is always a favoured destination. It is closer and cheaper than travelling to Europe or elsewhere. Indian hospitals, especially in Delhi, were always cooperative. Visas were issued on an as required basis. In many cases personal tweets to the Foreign Minister led to grant of visas.
The government of India should officially announce that it is stopping the issue of all visas till their government changes its approach. To further add fuel to fire, visas should be granted to minorities in Pak including Hindu’s, Ahmadis and Christians, whenever requested. While this could lead to internal alienation in Pak, however would add to pressures. Cries by human rights group should be ignored.
While announcing the utilization of all water entitled to it, India should also threaten its contemplating abrogation of the treaty. Just an announcement by India contemplating the same could lead to increased political panic in Pak. Pak anyway faces a water crises. It would never be able to muster funds to construct dams. Even if it does plan to construct them by taking loans, those constructed would enhance the internal divide as basin regions would be deprived of water.
India has already reignited BIMSTEC and created BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal), thus moving forward while ignoring SAARC. Pak on the other hand is desperate for holding the SAARC summit as it seeks to regain legitimacy in the region. India should continue reinstating its position that it would never participate in the summit, unless Pak changes its attitude. This would further convey that India continues to support the development of all nations in the region, less Pakistan.
India’s procurement of the S400 anti-aircraft missile systems from Russia was objected to by Pak on the basis that it could change the balance of power in the region. Their foreign office even stated that Pak is not desirous of an arms race in the region. It was hit harder when India inducted its nuclear submarine, INS Arihant, completing its nuclear triad. The nation desperately short of funds cannot enhance defence expenditure. Forcing Pak into a conventional arms race would add to internal pressures, moving funds from development to military.
India must at the earliest seek to reactivate its air force base at Farkhor in Tajikistan. Pak has always opposed this base as it could open a new frontier against them. Deployment of air force assets would add to pressures within the Pak security establishment. Post the air strike across the LoC, it would fear a similar action from another front, which would be difficult to handle.
Within the region, as was evident during the meeting of SAARC foreign ministers on the side lines of the UNGA, India is not alone. Foreign ministers of India, Afghanistan and Bangladesh walked out after sharing their views, thus conveying a combined displeasure to Pak. Further, it has been eight months and Bangladesh has refused to clear the appointment of the new Pak High Commissioner, claiming interference in the country. This combined pressure must continue, conveying that even in South Asia, Pak is an unwanted entity.
It is now evident that Pak despite support from China and its Arabian allies is now seeking a loan from the IMF to tide over its present crises. India must officially push for imposing severe terms on Pak for the loan. These should include meeting all conditions of FATF. With the FATF still not clearing Pak, it would be easier to push additional restrictions through.
India is too powerful a nation to be cowed down by Pak. It can act quietly and yet hit Pak and its nationals where it hurts. It need not give Pak any importance in diplomatic spheres yet cause desired heartburn and internal damage. However, unless it openly broadcasts its actions in open domain, the Pak public would never know the truth and their army and the government it controls feel the pressure.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army