Afghan peace talks the losing battle CENJOWS 22 Apr 2019
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=158
Afghan peace talks: the losing battle CENJOWS 22 Apr 2019
It has been some time that the Afghan peace talks have been in progress. There have been up’s and down’s with multiple hiccups, but talks have continued. The last round held in Mar led the US special envoy, Khalilzad, into meeting with all allies seeking to garner support for the US viewpoint. He also interacted with nations which have been traditional Taliban supporters, hoping for them to apply requisite pressure for progressing talks.
The latest intra-Afghan talks, without the involvement of the US, scheduled to commence on 19th of April, included a 250-member Afghan delegation comprising of some women and representatives of the Afghan government. This group had been formed by the Afghan High Peace Council, but its presence has been questioned by the Taliban, postponing the talks indefinitely.
They consider this group as having members of the government and claim their presence would not be a gain in any form. In their opinion, talks with such large numbers are meaningless. This is the second time that women have participated in direct talks. The last was during the inter-Afghan talks held in Moscow where the Afghan side was led by their ex-President Hamid Karzai and included members of the Afghan High Peace Council.
Amidst these multiple ongoing talks, the Taliban announced the launching of its Spring offensive, an action criticised by Khalilzad and the Afghan government. While it is a traditional announcement, though operations have never ceased during the winters, this announcement during the progress of talks indicated that the Taliban have considered their terrorist operations and talks as two separate entities.
To add to the confusion, the Pak Prime Minister, Imran Khan, suggested the creation of an interim government in Afghanistan, which was the demand by the Taliban. It only increased heartburns between the two countries, with Afghanistan even recalling its Ambassador for consultations, till Pakistan clarified that the comments were not aimed at changing the present regime. Imran also offered to meet the Taliban, which was subsequently cancelled on objections of the Afghan government. Clearly, Pak is on the side of the Taliban.
Time is slowly running out for the US. Trump is eager to stick to his pre-poll promise of withdrawing from Afghanistan and with the 2020 elections looming close, he could soon take a decision. Pompeo, the US Secretary of State recently stated that the US is not in Afghanistan to help rebuild the country. The US even pushed the UN to remove those involved in the talks from the terror watchdog list. Clearly, mixed signals from the US, though it is evident that Khalilzad is under pressure to deliver.
Thus, unless Khalilzad strikes an early deal with the Taliban, there is likely to be a scenario of confusion in the country. The Taliban and its backers, Pakistan, are no longer the revered community within Afghanistan. Attacks on locals, including those from the same community as majority of the Taliban has enhanced distrust on them. Similarly, the Pak government and deep state also have no love lost for the existing Afghan government and its army, which has refused to bend despite pressures from Pak.
The Taliban are playing to the galleries. While on one side they are willing for talks, on the other they have officially announced the launch of their Spring offensive. This announcement is aimed at enhancing pressure on the Afghan government and the US to agree to their terms in the coming talks. The control of large areas of the countryside by the Taliban and the existence of safe sanctuaries across the border in Pak have given them the confidence to face the might of the US. While US airpower has targeted Taliban targets in Afghanistan, they have avoided hitting them in Pak.
The entire focus of the talks has shifted over time. The initial intention was to convince the Taliban to engage with the Afghan government, leading to ‘Afghan led, Afghan owned’ peace talks. This concept was coined by the US itself. The refusal of the Taliban to meet the Afghan government led to the US directly discussing their withdrawal with them as also obtaining a promise not to permit use of Afghan soil by anti-US groups. This implies that the US considers the Taliban as the next legitimate government of the country, ignoring the present democratically elected government. A climb down from its own earlier standing.
As talks progress, Ashraf Ghani and his government have been side lined and ignored. They are only being briefed by Khalilzad on progress of talks. The Afghan government has started losing confidence and begun believing that the US is seeking to push through an interim government with Khalilzad’s supporters which will ultimately hand over power to the Taliban. A comment by the Afghan national security advisor, Hamdullah Mohib, on this aspect had the US blacklisting him.
The Taliban meeting in Russia was with the main rivals of Ghani thus signifying their refusal to negotiate under any conditions with the Afghan government. The desperation for withdrawal from Afghanistan by the US is leading it to dump the country which it forcibly occupied, back into the hands of the same group from whom it took over. It will be the second meek surrender of the US after Vietnam. It will result in the Taliban handing over their form of justice to those whom it considered as US supporters.
This implies that the manner the talks are progressing, Kabul would be told what the final decisions are, the creation of the interim government and details of US withdrawal. The nation would be left to the mercy of the Taliban and its Pak allies.
Afghanistan could possibly go the same way as it happened when the Soviets withdrew. The world remembers that Najibullah, who was President when the Taliban overran Kabul was hanged in public, despite efforts of the international community to extradite him. Afghanistan moved back in time. Talks are continuing while war still rages. Both the Taliban and the US continue to possess such distrust that they are unwilling to declare a ceasefire, fearing it would be used by the other to advantage. In such an environment, ditching Afghanistan into the hands of the Taliban could signal a retrograde step and push a nation, which is democratic and mature, back into the stone age.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army