Establishing a joint monitoring cell for South Asia CENJOWS 06 May 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=166
Establishing a joint monitoring cell for South Asia CENJOWS 06 May 19
The Sri Lankan attacks and subsequent investigation led to links of the attackers with the ISIS. Whether there was an ideological link alone or did the ISIS provide an individual who assembled the explosives remains unclear, as investigations continue. There have also been claims that some of them even visited India prior to the attacks. However, this has not been verified.
In a video released on 30th Apr, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of the ISIS praised the attackers and called on militants to be a ‘thorn in the chest of crusaders.’ He claimed this bombing to be a revenge for the fall of Baghouz, Syria. Earlier it was believed that the bombings were a revenge for the attack on the mosque in Christchurch.
It is now established that with the fall of their bases in Syria and Iraq, the ISIS have begun relocating themselves in Afghanistan. The ISIS, calling itself Islamic State- Khorasan (IS-K) in Afghanistan remains active since moving into the region in 2015. It has been responsible for multiple attacks on the local population as also security forces in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Intelligence reports at the same time suggest a drop in the strength of their fighters.
Russia and China believe that the US is permitting ISIS militants to re-establish themselves in Afghanistan, as they could become future targets. The US has denied the same and has claimed to be regularly targeting the group in the region. The importance of the Taliban stems from the fact that it considers the IS-K in Afghanistan as an enemy. It is thus being wooed by Russia and China, for whom the emerging IS-K is a major threat.
Post the bomb blasts in Sri Lanka, the IS-K issued a direct threat of attacks in India and Bangladesh. It also announced Abu Muhammed al-Bengali as the new ‘emir’ in Bangladesh. Bangladesh has been on high alert since the ISIS inspired the Holey Artisan bakery attack in 2016. Bangladesh’s main internal terror outfits, JMB and Hizbut Tahir, have developed links with the IS-K.
It’s known presence has thus far been restricted to Afghanistan and Pakistan, though attempting to expand its footprints into Kashmir. IS-K has some supporters in the valley, as its flags have fluttered on occasions. There is no marked presence in the region, except of an odd group claiming allegiance to it. There are ISIS supporters spread across India, some of whom even fought for the group in Syria. Post the Sri Lanka attacks and subsequent investigations, some of its supporters were arrested in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Indian intelligence agencies are aware of growing sleeper cells of locals influenced by ISIS ideology in Southern India.
The sub-continent faces internal turmoil at the present. Pak supported terrorist groups are involved in creating disturbances in Kashmir, Iran and Afghanistan. Increased international pressure on Pak has forced it to control its terrorist groups from expanding operations into the interior regions of India. Naxal operations continue in the hinterland. For India, possessing most of its major military and national security institutions in the South, there are concerns of increased security.
Groups operating against the Pak army, created due to either their flawed attack on the Lal Masjid or their treatment of Baluchi’s, are challenging Pak security forces on its western borders. They continue to target minorities within the country with impunity. In this turmoil is the rising presence of the IS-K. Afghanistan faces continuous strikes from both the Taliban and the IS-K. Iran also has groups operating from Pak soil regularly targeting its security forces.
IS-K’s emergence in Sri Lanka as also with many of ISIS’s former fighters having returned home to Maldives, the region would witness additional ISIS inspired attacks. Maldives had the highest number of ISIS recruits per capita anywhere in the world.
The existence of Ultra Wahhabis preachers in Malaysia and Indonesia seeking to indoctrinate Muslims in the sub-continent is a reality. The suicide bombers in Sri Lanka and the Holey Artisan Bakery attackers were influenced by these speakers including Zakir Naik, the fugitive Indian firebrand speaker, now in Malaysia.
The security environment in South Asia is likely to move downhill unless states decide to act together in meeting emerging threats. With the threat emanating from two dimensions, ideological and growing presence of ISIS sympathisers (both active and sleeper), the need for establishing joint organizations for monitoring and surveillance of those suspected is the requirement of the moment.
These threats are unlikely to be restricted within individual nation states but would spill across the borders. The attackers in Bangladesh had supporters within India, who were subsequently arrested, and the fallout of the Sri Lankan blasts led to eliminating sleeper cells in multiple parts of South India. This is also because family ties are spread across frontiers due to historical reasons.
With SAARC now defunct and the likely participation of Pakistan missing from any grouping being established by India due to it being a major supporter of terrorists, any such organization would have to be based on agreements with friendly states on a reciprocal basis. India which possesses advanced technologies and the ability to finance such establishments should take the lead.
Its close relations with all neighbours and removal of all misconceptions should enable it to set up an organization where information flowing from monitoring and surveillance is shared. Actions against individuals and groups should be left to the nations themselves. The US which possesses multiple monitoring centres across the globe should be included to enable sharing of inputs.
The battle against a growing ideology can never be fought by a nation alone within its boundaries. Terrorism is no longer restricted or confined to international boundaries. Unless nations with similar cultures, ethnicity and intermingled population groups join, they are unlikely to stop terrorist attacks in the future. Inputs flowing from a joint establishment are likely to be acted upon earliest, rather than that being delayed or ignored, as the Sri Lankan incident proved.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army