Strategic benefits of supporting the Baluch movement CENJOWS 29 May 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=172
Strategic benefits of supporting the Baluch movement CENJOWS 29 May 19
A recent video doing the rounds on social media showed a group of heavily armed Baluch Liberation Army (BLA) soldiers threatening China on its exploitation of Baluchistan. The leader spoke with confidence and clarity and appeared to be well educated. The leadership of the BLA is presently in the hands of educated youth, who understand the impact of their actions. The video was possibly made after the suicide attack on the Pearl Continental Hotel in Gwadar, in which Pak claimed five were killed, while the BLA stated many more.
The attack in one of the most fortified zones within the country indicated the reach and capability of the BLA. The Baluchi’s have been against the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from its inception. In their perception, the CPEC is aimed at exploiting their region, which was never amalgamated into Pakistan, but forcefully occupied. The Pak army has been ruthless in seeking to curb Baluchi nationalism, but has only led to further antagonism. There have been reports of successful attacks on the Pak army by the BLA, which are suppressed from its own public.
Pak has even raised additional forces to safeguard Chinese assets but to no avail. Attacks like the one on the Chinese consulate in Nov last year, on a bus travelling close to Gwadar in Apr this year, leading to 14 military and para- military dead and on the Pearl Continental hotel, in the city itself, indicates that the Pak army is failing. China remains dissatisfied with Pak efforts and has even attempted to directly negotiate with the BLA on which there appears to be no progress.
Pak has blamed international intelligence agencies, mainly the Indian RAW and the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) for supporting the BLA. Pak justifies RAW support by quoting the case of Kulbhushan Jadhav, whom they claim was captured in Baluchistan, whereas the reality was that he was kidnapped in Chabahar and transported to Baluchistan. The denial of diplomatic access to Kulbhushan is to prevent the truth from flowing.
Recently, in desperation and desperate to control the growing BLA, Imran Khan visited Iran and offered to curb anti-Iran terrorist organizations operating from Pak soil, in return for Iran acting against the BLA. This was the first admission by a Pak leader that it has backed anti-Iran terrorist groups. It had earlier accused Afghanistan for not acting against them. Clearly, the Pak army is under intense pressure, as the Chinese fear for the security of the CPEC.
All this is happening when the US is locked down in talks with the Taliban, which for years has been supported and backed by Pakistan. The lack of progress in the Afghan peace talks is because the Taliban is assured of continued support from Pakistan and the deep state. Pakistan continues to support terrorist groups operating in Kashmir, despite the threat of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) placing it in the ‘Black-List’. Further, there is no international forum where Pak does not raise the Kashmir bogey.
Pak also faces its worst financial crises in decades. Its economy is in free-fall and there are few international supporters. In desperation it has been compelled to turn to the IMF for its umpteenth bailout. Amongst the strict conditions being placed by the IMF include curbing its defence budget, which could restrict the capability of the Pak army.
In this scenario, it would be prudent for the US and India to contemplate supporting the BLA against Pak. While India could provide diplomatic backing, the US CIA could provide the BLA military support to enhance its capabilities to challenge the might of the Pak army and create its own separate country. Such an action would have major benefits to both nations and change the geo-politics of the sub-continent.
For India, Pak would know that every time it raises Kashmir in the public domain, it could be hit by its atrocities in Baluchistan. Supporting exiled Baluch separatist leaders across the globe would increase international awareness on the mishandling of the region by Pak, adding to international pressures. Human Rights bodies would be goaded into demanding visits to Baluchistan, which realistically remains an independent nation as per UN definitions, as it never acceded to Pak but was forcibly annexed.
For the US, the benefits are even greater. Support to the BLA, could ultimately lead to the creation of an independent Baluchistan, which would impact its standing and power in the sub-continent. It would provide Afghanistan with a friendly neighbour with an access to the Indian Ocean ignoring Pak even more. US bases in Afghanistan would no longer have to depend on Karachi for supplies, as Gwadar would be the alternate axis. The fact that the US supported the freedom struggle could mean the US gaining a foothold in Gwadar, now held by China.
China’s famed CPEC, the flag ship of its Belt Road Initiative (BRI), would suffer a setback. The loss to China would be immense in both financial as also in international standing and reputation. It is already unhappy with Pak handling the Baluch crises, further attacks with increased vigour would be worse for the Pak-China relationship. This would push China to cut down its support to Pak, as it would be supporting a losing nation.
Pak has multiple terrorist training camps as also uses Baluchistan as a launching pad for Taliban operations in Afghanistan. Its domination by the BLA supported by the CIA would deny Pak this facility. It would ultimately cut Pak down to size, forcing it to change its outlook as a nation employing terrorism as an instrument of state policy.
The US has always considered Iran as an enemy. Iran also has a significant Baluch population, which has been suppressed by the state. Visualizing success of the BLA would provide them with the confidence to challenge the Iranian military and enhance pressure on the nation. This would assist overall US interests in the region.
In this scenario, when Pak is going through it worst financial crises, China unhappy with the ability of the Pak army to subdue the BLA, the US should jump in to support its own long-term strategic interests in the region. India should support the struggle diplomatically by raising the issue of Pak atrocities in the region, across the globe and in the UN. Hitting Pak where it hurts the most would compel it to change its own strategic directions.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army