Strategic challenges facing the new government CENJOWS 03 Jun 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=175
Strategic challenges facing the new government CENJOWS 03 Jun 19
The previous government under Modi had devoted a large part of its time building ‘Brand India’ across the globe. This implied projecting Indian strengths, including its soft power, growing middle class, expanding markets, galloping economy and military professionalism. Modi’s interaction with the Indian diaspora, by his rallies, in every country, conveyed to the home nation the strength and unity within the Indian community across the globe.
India’s response to Uri and Pulwama were not to satisfy Indian audiences alone, but also to project to the world that India is no longer a push-over, a nation to be cowed down by terrorist acts and hence would respond hard and fast. India’s actions were calibrated and indicated deeper strikes on each occasion. Its ignoring Pak’s nuclear threat conveyed Indian military might could be exploited, if it is threatened. Thus, the professionalism of the Indian armed forces was displayed to the world, which had over time been lamenting about the poor state of Indian equipment.
The fact that Pak misread Indian intentions, post Uri, was their undoing. They attempted Pulwama, expecting a repeat, but were stunned by Balakote, for which they had limited options. Their nuclear myth was broken and Pak lost face across the globe, as it struggled to hide the truth, which the world knew, while their population remained in darkness. Since then, it has been careful in its actions, knowing the next response may be more difficult to hide even internally and war is not an option, given their present state.
Internationally, India has enhanced its position as a reliable partner in every sphere. There is no nation, other than an uncompromising Pak, whose leaders have not rushed to Delhi to embrace Modi and seek to enhance economic and military cooperation. While India has carefully sought to balance its ties between different blocks, it has on occasions been forced to choose.
Modi’s re-election with a massive mandate has conveyed that policies and alliances which he created and implemented in his first term would remain. The election also made him growing India’s undisputed leader and he can now ensure that the nation grows stronger in every sphere. India is anyway the world’s largest market and in coming years, with a large population moving from poverty to middle class, the market would only grow. Thus, brand India will only gain strength.
Modi’s victory would also benefit strategic alliances which were carefully crafted in his first tenure. Indo-US relations, despite hiccups on issues of trade and India’s proximity to Russia would enhance. Indo-US defence cooperation would grow stronger as both seek to work together in the Indo-Pacific. With Japan pushing for closer cooperation with India, the QUAD may become more effective. Growing India-US relations and ongoing US-China trade war could benefit India as US factories in China would relocate to India.
India would need to work on balancing its relations with US adversaries including Russia and Iran. While it may be compelled to stop or procure limited oil from Iran on the Rupee payment model, it cannot stop procurement of military hardware from Russia. This would have to be understood by the US. If the US pushes hard on Russia, there would be differences which may impact relations. India may need to bargain hard on this aspect.
Russia would remain a close ally, despite differences with the US. India needs Russia to control a belligerent China and keep Russia-Pak relations under check. It cannot place all its eggs in one basket, even for defence procurements, much as US or Russia would desire.
This victory would also enable the government to enhance ties with West Asia, mainly Saudi Arabia and UAE, the two main backers of Pakistan. They were encouraged during the end of the first term of Modi to invest in India, which would now fructify. India would similarly need to keep away from the Saudi-Iran and US-Iran conflict. It should avoid taking sides nor seeking to be a mediator.
Afghanistan is unlikely to be resolved in any near timeframe. The US cannot withdraw and hand over the region to an unrelenting Taliban nor under Russian and Chinese influence. The Chinese are awaiting US withdrawal to push their Belt and Road initiative into the country. Once they do so, Afghanistan would be compelled to follow the Columbo model and lose control of its mineral resources. Hence, while India would need to interact with the Taliban to ensure security of its assets, it should stay away from ongoing US-Taliban disagreements.
China will remain a major adversary. Despite all bonhomie between the two leaders and conduct of Wuhan like talks, there will always be a trust deficit. Chinese support to Pak would remain strong as they are forced to ensure security of their investments in the country. With no resolution to border dispute, tensions and pressures will remain. Hence, the building of strategic alliances like the QUAD and closer military cooperation with SE Asian nations would be paramount.
Closer home, South Asia should remain a focus. The intention must be to reduce Chinese influence and expansionism in the region. Despite any government in power, they must be engaged and supported. A repeat of Maldives should be avoided. The nations should have the confidence to turn towards India for support rather than any other competitor, including China.
Pakistan remains a pinprick, which is best ignored. At present all calls for talks have flowed from their end on which India has not even bothered to comment. Indian intentions should be clear, push the Pak economy downhill by ensuring it remains under FATF scrutiny, force it to spend on defence as the conventional gap grows and provide diplomatic support to the Baluch freedom movement and the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM). With these pressures alone Pak would be forced to act before any talks can even be contemplated. India should not be in any hurry.
The massive mandate with which Modi has returned ensures he has freedom to push his international vision to enhance the image of brand India. India would, in the coming years, be a major player across the globe and the destination for enhanced investments and all heads of state.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army