What can we expect in the SCO (English Version) Rakshak News 12 Jun 19
http://www.rakshaknews.com/vishesh/which-hope-will-the-shanghai-cooperation-organization-meet
What can we expect in the SCO? (English Version) Rakshak News 12 Jun 19
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit will be held on Jun 13-14 at Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. The SCO is a China-led eight-member economic and security bloc. Its founding members include China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. China wanted Pakistan in the bloc as it has always supported it, while Russia wanted India in the bloc as a counter to China. India and Pakistan were admitted to the Beijing-based regional security grouping in 2017. This is Modi’s first summit engagement post his re-election.
Indian media is concentrating on whether Indian and Pak PMs would shake hands and have a small chat as Modi had with Nawaz Sharif or would both maintain a distance. For Modi, Pak would be just a pinprick as there would be far greater issues to be covered. On these issues Pak would have no role as the nation is barely able to survive economically and faces intense international pressure.
The summit comes just after Russia and China have enhanced their strategic partnership to greater heights, US is targeting Beijing and Moscow, albeit for different reasons and tensions between the US and China are rising. The recent incident of a Russian navy ship sailing close to a US destroyer in the disputed seas of China indicates the growing distance between the US on one side and Russia and China together on the other. This incident was a means of conveying that Russia and China could join hands militarily, in case of a threat.
The other major disputes are sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, both of whom are supported by Russia and China and procurements from whom are blocked by sanctions. Afghanistan remains another flashpoint, where both Russia and China blame the US for enabling the ISIS to gain a stronghold and prevent the Taliban from tackling them. Afghanistan is in proximity to Russia and borders China’s Xinjiang, where China is presently cracking down on its Muslim population.
India is a major player, which has managed to balance its relations with all major powers, the US, China and Russia. It is facing US pressures on procurement of oil from Iran and purchase of the S-400 Missile systems from Russia. While India has curtailed its oil procurement from Iran, it has refused to bend on its procurements from Russia. Simultaneously, India is a strategic ally of the US and participates with US forces in major exercises, mostly aimed at containing China.
India is also a strong proponent of curbing terrorist groups, especially emanating from Pakistan. China, which has supported Pak all through would not desire it be embarrassed by India in the forum. Pak has only one agenda point in every international meeting. It seeks talks with India and wants the UN resolution on Kashmir to be implemented, without accepting its own side of the bargain. India ignores Pak’s demands as the Shimla agreement has made the dispute bilateral. Hence, even if there is a small discussion between Modi and Imran, it may just be a formality or have a limited impact of opening backchannel diplomacy. India would be unwilling to risk talks, unless Pak intents of cutting down on terrorist groups are clear and verifiable.
Discussions with other members would be to enhance trade and provide support similar as India provided to Kyrgyzstan when its President attended the swearing in of Modi, which was a USD 100 million defence line of credit. Major discussions would be between India, China and Russia, which could impact the current global pressures being created by the US.
In this complex scenario, what could we expect in the SCO? Pakistan and terrorism may only be a passing reference, while greater importance would be the trade war between the US and China and US trade protectionism launched by Trump in recent times. The other aspect which would be discussed between Russia, China and India would be to determine means to bypass US economic sanctions by creating an alternate means of payment with countries like Iran and Venezuela.
In the ensuing major discussions, India would play a major role as it has the economy and the ability to assist change the global scenario. Hence, both Russia and China would be seeking its support and cooperation. The question is would something substantial come out of this summit to amend the unilateral sanctions and pressures being forced down by the US? The next two days would provide the answer.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army