US-Iran tensions threaten the region CENJOWS 25 Jun 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=184
US-Iran tensions threaten the region CENJOWS 25 Jun 19
The downing of the US Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk drone by Iran over the weekend has escalated an already tense environment between the US and Iran, threatening stability of the region. Trump’s decision to halt his retaliatory strikes 10 mins before they were to hit, has prevented escalation. The reason given by Trump was to avoid local casualties, however, it appears more to prevent Iran retaliation as the US has troops deployed in bases close to Iran, which could have been attacked. Further, it would destabilize the entire middle east, creating an oil crises, plunging it into chaos, which would be beyond the US to handle.
Post the drone incident, the US continues to add sanctions on Iran to existing ones including by directing friendly airlines from not overflying Iranian airspace. The impact of the same is yet to be determined.
Since the US pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or the nuclear deal in May last year, tensions in the region had already been rising. All other nations which signed the deal in 2015, Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany, have criticized US sanctions. Sanctions imposed by the US on procurement of oil from Iran, which is its main export is now impacting the nation. Despite all their bravado, other nations which signed the deal have been unable to continue procurement of oil.
The Iranian economy is under threat. It has compelled the nation to increase pressure on other signatories of the deal including by threatening to enhance its Uranium stockpile beyond the levels agreed on in JCPOA. In the meanwhile, the US has asked Tehran to maintain its levels of stockpile as agreed upon in JCPOA. If it has withdrawn from the deal, asking Iran to maintain levels is almost signalling a confrontation.
There have been isolated attempts at targeting tankers in the Gulf of Hormuz, an area through which most oil flows. In May this year, four ships including two Saudi oil tankers were claimed to have been damaged in attacks of UAE’s Fujairah port. In the latest incident this month, two tankers which according to the Japanese trade ministry were carrying ‘Japan related cargo’ were damaged.
This incident came about when the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, was holding talks with the Iranian leadership in Tehran seeking to find a solution to the standoff between the US and Iran. The US was quick to blame Iran and even released a video, which it claimed was Iranian personnel removing an unexploded mine from the ship. The Captain of the Japanese tanker which was hit stated that his sailors witnessed a flying object striking the ship, contradicting US claims. Iran has denied involvement in both these cases.
Tensions in the region have been high for some time now. Saudi Arabia has been facing a series of missile attacks on its soil from Iranian backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. In retaliation, Saudi Arabia has been launching air strikes in Yemen creating the worst human catastrophe in recent times.
The US has begun moving troops into the Gulf. It had earlier deployed an aircraft carrier, bomber planes and 1500 troops in the region. This has been increased by another 1000. This includes forces for surveillance and intelligence-gathering. These forces are not adequate for any war with Iran, but more of political posturing.
Both Iran and the US have been stating that they do not desire a conflict. There are hardliners on both sides instigating respective governments for adopting a hard approach against the other. In the US, the group is headed by John Bolton, the current National Security Advisor, which has been projecting a military approach to Iran. He is backed by the New Iran Foundation, a Washington based thinktank, which opposes the Islamic Republic. Alireza Nader who heads this organization stated, ‘This (attack on the tankers) was a very blunt warning. Iran is saying to the world we are able to disrupt the world’s oil markets and we’re going to do it.’
Within Iran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has taken a strong stance and vowed to meet any US threats. Gen. Morteza Qorbani, an adviser to Iran’s military command stated, ‘If they commit the slightest stupidity, we will send these ships to the bottom of the sea along with their crew and planes using two missiles or two new secret weapons.’
Trump has been threatening Iran regularly in his tweets, seeking talks from a position of strength. He mellowed down recently, when he stated that he does not seek war with Iran. The national fervour being built in Iran against the US would never permit the present leadership from negotiating from a position of weakness, despite all of Trump’s threats. The Iranian leadership has been more subdued. President Hassan Rouhani has suggested that Iran is not opposed to negotiations with Washington but will not be pressured into them. Hence, who will bend first is the question.
Amid this tangle is increased pressure on the US from Israel and Saudi Arabia to act and strike Iran. For them Iran is a threat which only the US has the military power to tackle. To add to the confusion is increased activities of Iran proxies in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The US claims it has intelligence reports on Iran having given a green light to its proxies to go after US targets. Iranian backed Houthi rebels have increased attacks on Saudi soil while Syrian rebels on US backed groups.
Michael Knights, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute think tank stated, ‘The U.S. can destroy the Iranian navy in a day, but it will find it is attacked in six countries by proxy networks.’ Russia and China are both backing Iran in its standoff against the US. This was evident with the attendance of Iranian President Rouhani at the SCO summit recently. Despite reports to the contrary, fearing the impact of US sanctions and a never-ending trade war, China too has cut down its oil procurements from Iran.
India has a lot at stake. Despite cutting its oil imports, it has investments in Chabahar and cannot afford to let a US-Iran conflict occur. It would severely impact its investments and relationships. It has neither commented on the ongoing tussle nor taken sides. The meeting between Modi and Rouhani on the side lines of SCO was cancelled due to scheduling issues, thus Indian oil procurements post sanctions were not discussed.
In the ultimate scenario, neither the US nor Iran desire war. Both are aware that it is not an answer. Both want talks, but neither side is willing to blink first. Trump’s tweets and threats would never create a conducive environment. In the meanwhile, warmongers on either side or an incident by a proxy could open doors to a near conflict, pulling back from which would be difficult. The Iranian public has endured sanctions for a prolonged duration till it signed the nuclear deal, it will most likely absorb the same again. Who, trusted by both sides, will find a mid-path leading to commencement of dialogue is a mute question? Will Modi be willing to attempt the plunge?
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army