Talks with Pakistan on Kashmir not possible The Statesman 02 Jul 19
Talks with Pakistan on Kashmir not possible 02 Jul 19
India and Pak have been at loggerheads over Kashmir since Independence. The movement of the militia from Wazirabad into Kashmir was the commencement of the first Indo-Pak war. Four wars, including Kargil, have been fought and in none has Pak succeeded in any of its aims. Nehru’s insistence on going to the UN, despite military advice in 1948, brought Kashmir into prominence.
With Pak failing to accept the UN resolution of 1949 and withdrawing its troops from the region, prior to the conduct of the plebiscite, it died a natural death. Subsequently claiming that Kashmir can be resolved via plebiscite has become meaningless. The Shimla agreement made the Kashmir issue bilateral and out of the scope of any mediation.
Post 1965 and 1971 there were agreements leading to peace, none resolving Kashmir. Kashmir was always left for future dialogue. This was because no mediator felt it could be resolved easily. Despite India having had all advantages post 1971, the Shimla agreement did not end the fight over Kashmir. Reasons and compulsions for the same have been discussed by historians, however Kashmir remained unresolved.
Pakistan has from its birth been claiming ownership of Kashmir, which was always denied and its failure in every war only added to its frustrations. Apart from religious affinity, as claimed by Pak, the major reason is that Kashmir is from where waters for both India and Pak originate. Thus, with it under the control of India, there is always a fear within Pak of India shutting the tap, in case it crosses its limits.
In desperation, Pakistan’s strongest military dictator, Zia-Ul-Haq, during USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan, launched his strategy of bleeding India with a thousand cuts. The USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan was an ideal period for Pakistan as it allied with the US. It received immense funds, some of which it could divert to this strategy, while building its nuclear arsenal under the nose of the US, thus denying India the ability to threaten it with a nuclear strike. Pakistan became a breeding ground for jihadists, many of whom were diverted to Kashmir. The breeding ground then established, continues to flourish and threatens peace and stability in the entire region.
Over the years, despite large scale attacks on Indian cities and even the Indian parliament, there was no military retaliation against Pakistan, which only emboldened it. India only called on world bodies to rope Pak in, which led to cosmetic action. Pak felt that this approach in the long term could bring India to the negotiating table, without them changing their policies.
Meeting between the political leadership of the two nations in the last almost two decades point towards this. The last two-three years has witnessed a strong retaliation by India to its misadventures, which has left it scarred. The two strikes across the border, one close and the other at Balakote has left Pak looking for options.
Its supporting anti-India terrorist groups, providing them freedom to act against India and making its leaders appear as national heroes has prevented Pak from changing its policy. Its twisting of history to change defeat into victory in every war has led to its public believing that freedom for Kashmir is around the corner, while its leadership knows the truth, aware that it may never happen.
Despite the present Modi government adopting a policy of ‘terror and talks are not bedfellows’ Pak continues to call for talks. Their foreign and prime ministers have repeatedly made requests for talks to the extent of being insulted in their own senate. Senator Abdul Qayyum, a retired Lt General and at present a senator, criticised Prime Minister Imran Khan for making repeated attempts to speak with Indian premier Narendra Modi and said it amounted to national humiliation. India has only reiterated that for talks to happen there has to be an ‘environment of trust, free of terror, violence and hostility.’ This is not possible as at present.
The reality is that Pak can neither give up its support to terrorism while it remains desperate for talks on multiple issues, including Kashmir. It is aware that neither militarily nor by supporting terrorism it would regain the valley. It may create a self-sustaining militancy, but that would not be of any major benefit and would remain confined to a small region. On the other hand, in case India decides to provide open support, financial, material and diplomatic to all anti-Pakistan movements within Pak, they would be in doldrums.
The Pak army has gained the maximum by adopting this policy. It has twisted history and engulfed its population with the belief that India is their eternal enemy and seeking to destroy them. Thus, its budget, strength and power has grown stronger over the years. Its manipulation of all institutions including media, judiciary and the government has ensured that the nation believes it to be the only saviour from annihilation by India. The regaining of Kashmir has been driven deep into the mindset of the common Pakistani.
The Pak military leadership believes that once it stops export of terrorism and reduces the only leverage it has on India, there may be no reason for India to come forward on negotiating on Kashmir. This feeling has been compounded by the fact that despite all wars and subsequent ceasefires there was no discussion on resolving Kashmir. Their only hope remains that if terrorism rises to the level that it can hurt Indian interests, India may accept talks. In this case, it would be Pak which would be talking from the position of strength.
This concept is the opposite of Indian thinking. India would never be willing to come for discussions from a position of weakness. It may be willing to discuss from a position of strength. Thus, with opposite views and the inability of the Pak deep state to reverse its stand on Kashmir and terrorist groups, there may be ups and downs, but there would not be any resolution on Kashmir in any near timeframe.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army