Iran and North Korea- Differential handling CENJOWS 09 Jul 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=190
Iran and North Korea- Differential handling CENJOWS 09 Jul 19
Iran and North Korea have been in the limelight recently, albeit for different reasons. Trump has been personally dealing with both these nations. During his electioneering, he had stated his opposition to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), also termed as the nuclear deal with Iran. He withdrew from the same last year with complete sanctions kicking in from 01 May this year. Simultaneously, he humiliated the North Korean Supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, terming him in his UN General Assembly speech as the ‘Rocket man’. His key advisors, including John Bolton, were those who have for decades been advocating a strong stance against both nations.
Iran, post the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, has been warning other signatories to commence procurement of its oil, failing which it would enhance the quality and quantity of its nuclear stockpiles. It has justified the same as the JCPOA permits it, if a party withdraws from the deal. Iran also added that its actions remain reversable. JCPOA has been billed by all other signatories, except the US, as the best agreement in recent times. It has denied Iran the capability to produce nuclear weapons. The enhancement is being announced as it happens.
Trump has cautioned Iran stating that its crossing limits laid down in JCPOA is akin to ‘fighting with fire’. His insulting the Iranian leadership and threatening the nation has compelled it to ignore calls for talks. It appears that the US is seeking an excuse to launch strikes on Iran. The downing of the US drone by Iran almost led to an airstrike, which could have engulfed the entire region in a war which no nation desires.
Interestingly, Iran never tested a nuclear weapon, nor has it come close to developing one. It has over the years developed ballistic missiles. However, geopolitically and in resources, Iran is on the wrong side of the globe. The Shia nation is the sworn enemy of Sunni Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Both, Iran and Saudi Arabia, are seek domination of the region. It is also the sworn enemy of Israel, which has accused it of supporting anti-Israel militias. Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel are close US allies.
Iran supports militias in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. They target Israel, US forces and the Saudis respectively. Its strategic location at the entrance to the straits of Hormuz, through which most oil shipping moves, have provided it an additional level of security as any offensive action against it could impact international movement of oil. As compared to North Korea it has oil reserves, which are presently under sanctions.
North Korea, on the other hand, has for decades been termed a rogue state, by every US president. It is known to be ruled by despots, has a poor economy, brutal human rights record and being supported in multiple ways by China and Russia. It has openly flaunted its missile and nuclear power.
In recent years it has conducted a flurry of nuclear and missile tests, to the extent that air raid sirens were being sounded in Japan as missiles flew overhead. It has been known to be a leader in nuclear proliferation alongside Pakistan. There were rumours that in case nuclear weapons were desired by terrorists, North Korea could be a conduit, alongside Pakistan.
The US to ensure security of South Korea maintains a permanent deployment along the border with the North. It also exercises with them to continue application of pressure on North Korea. Till recently, the cost of maintaining the forces and exercises was borne largely by the US. It was Trump who compelled South Korea to enhance its share of the expenditure.
The difference between North Korea and Iran is that it neither has oil, nor does it support any terrorist groups in the region, since it lacks funds. Hence, Trump has been seeking summit after summit with it, aware that it would never surrender its nuclear weapons. He knows that North Korea would not be able to threaten US facilities and hence seeks some softening of North Korean stance. Whether his intention is to leave behind a legacy or seeks a deal to regain the presidential office next year is debateable. He has ignored the threat North Korea poses to Japan and South Korea. His desire for proximity to North Korea is due to it not posing any direct threat to the US either economically or militarily.
Further, Iran oil threatens the economy of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, other oil producers in the region. Trump’s support to these countries stems from their procuring US weapons and investing in the US. He has discarded world demands for sanctions on Saudi Arabia for the killing of Khashoggi.
Thus, it is most likely oil which has compelled Trump to launch his tirade and sanctions against Iran. The recent actions by India point to this direction. Indian oil procurements were till the imposition of sanctions largely from Iran. Post imposing sanctions, India has been compelled to procure oil from the US at unfavourable rates and increased shipping costs.
Trump’s actions are also in some manner the repeat of the story of US actions on Iraq. The US waded into Iraq claiming it had nuclear weapons. Subsequently, it was proved wrong. It led to destabilization of the entire region and the birth of the ISIS, which continues to threaten large parts of the globe, either by its ideology or its presence. It repeated the story in Libya. Both the nations were oil producers and threatened the hegemony of Saudi Arabia on oil production. Similar is the case with Venezuela.
It is forcing the world to follow its diktat, whereas it acts on its personal national interests alone, ignoring world demands. Unless nations push forth and seek a solution to curtailing US unilateral actions and bypassing the US dollar in international trade, such blackmail, seeking to favour US industry and its closest allies would continue.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army