Global Jihad and Kashmir CENJOWS 15 Jul 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=192
Global Jihad and Kashmir CENJOWS 15 Jul 19
The present chief of Al Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, recently released a video in which he exhorted for greater cooperation between terrorist groups in Kashmir. In the same video, he criticized policies of the Pak deep state. He stated that Pak intelligence agencies would seek to prevent the Mujahideen from succeeding. They would want them to remain in their control. In his opinion, Pak appeared against its existing policy of bleeding India with a thousand cuts.
He added, ‘All that the Pakistan army and government are interested in is exploiting the Mujahideen for specific political objectives.’ His advice to militants in Kashmir was to, ‘single-mindedly focus on inflicting unrelenting blows on the Indian army and government to bleed the Indian economy and make India suffer sustained losses in manpower and equipment.’ He also sought to raise the Kashmir dispute to the global level by enhanced violence.
A few days prior to this video being released, Hameed Lehari, the head of the valley-based Ansar Ghazwatul Hind (AGS), an affiliate of the Al Qaeda, and the replacement to the eliminated Zakir Musa, made an almost similar announcement and sought cooperation and coordination amongst all terrorist groups in the state. This was post one of his militants being eliminated by the Hizbul Mujahideen group in a fight over a weapon. The maximum strength of AGS, at any time was 11 militants, most of whom have been eliminated.
In early May, ISIS announced the creation of a new province in India. It termed the province as ‘Wilayah of Hind’. The J and K police rejected this claim. Days after the suicide attacks on Churches in Sri Lanka, it also issued a direct threat to carry out attacks in Bangladesh and India. It appointed Abu Muhammed al-Bengali as its new chief in Bangladesh. While ISIS flags have fluttered during violence in Kashmir, they have very few supporters. The flags appear to be mere symbols challenging government writ and a display of resistance.
Multiple issues arise from these sudden spurt of announcements. It is well known that Osama Bin Laden was hidden by the Pak deep state in Abbottabad, near their military academy. After his elimination, the next in line is the present Al Qaeda chief, Ayman Al Zawahiri. He is presently amongst the most wanted terrorist in the world. His whereabouts remain unknown.
It is almost certain that he is not in hiding in Afghanistan, despite the Taliban and Al Qaeda operating in conjunction. Hence, most probably he is based in Pakistan, where instead of keeping him in one safe house, as was had done for Osama Bin Laden, the Pak deep state moves him from place to place. This is because it needs him to ensure continued cooperation with the Taliban and support their operations.
It is established that Al Qaeda operates alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan, despite multiple promises being made in the ongoing peace talks between the US and the Taliban. In an article in Long War Journal of Jun this year, Thomas Joscelyn writes, ‘Al Qaeda members act as instructors and religious teachers for Taliban personnel and their family members.’ He quotes a UN report which states, ‘Al Qaeda continues to see Afghanistan as a safe haven for its leadership, based on its long-standing strong relationship with the Taliban.’
Zawahiri’s statement, criticizing the Pak deep state appears to be well timed and ideally suiting Pak. It comes just prior to the visit of Imran Khan to the US and Pak’s desperation to avoid remaining on the FATF Grey list. Its cosmetic actions of acting against terrorist groups to meet the strong demands of FATF could also have been behind this video. Zawahiri’s statement, apparently blaming the Pak deep state, is aimed at conveying a change in Pak’s approach to supporting terrorist groups. It is also expected that this statement would assuage Trump, who would be seeking strong guarantees from Pak in ensuring peace in Afghanistan.
Hence, this video is more likely to have been done at the behest of the deep state. Zawahiri’s comments need to be ignored and was rightly done so by the Indian Foreign Office, in its regular press interaction. The Al Qaeda neither has a base in Kashmir, nor would venture into the state till the battle for Afghanistan continues.
The ranting of the ISIS is also nothing new. They are known to make statements without any bias. They claimed responsibilities for an attack in Kashmir on 10 May, however security agencies rebuffed their claims. Their ability to influence individuals or small groups is evident as was witnessed in the recent blasts in Sri Lanka and arrests in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and other regions of India. Their presence and hold in Kashmir appear to be very limited.
More noteworthy are recent reports of the Pak deep state seeking to re-establish and re-strengthen eight old terror groups after international pressure on Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen was increased. These groups include Sipah-e-Sahaba, Jaish-ul-Adl, Lashkar-e-Omer (LeO), Al-Badr, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Tehreek-ul-Mujahideen (TuM) and Al-Umar-Mujahideen (AUM). This is because Pak is aware of India’s tough international pressure to push Pak to act against known terrorist groups.
Presently recruitment in the valley is reducing while elimination of existing militants is increasing. Weapons are hard to come by and even if there is an availability of recruits, there are limited weapons. Infiltration is low as Pak faces international heat as also fears strong Indian retaliation to infiltration attempts. With strict checks and reduced cross border trade, smuggling of weapons has slowed to a trickle. Hawala actions to fund violence has been largely curtailed as those behind this are either under investigation or behind bars. Drug smuggling, also used as a conduit for militancy, is being checked.
It has therefore been compelled to resort to other measures. The ideal solution is to reignite those groups which are neither banned nor have been in the limelight in recent times. Their names may be different but their means of operating and funding remains the same. It is placing old wine in new bottles. This is the development which India needs to monitor.
The only route forward is to continue maintaining pressure on Pak internationally and locally. Zawahiri’s comments must be ignored. A nation, which seeks talks with one hand and supports terrorist groups from the other can neither be trusted nor spoken to. Developing capabilities to strike Pak hard and deep in case of any misadventure must continue.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army