Imran Khan’s US visit and India (English Version) Rakshak News 17 Jul 19
http://www.rakshaknews.com/vishesh/imran-khans-america-tour-and-india
Imran Khan’s US visit and India (English Version) Rakshak News 17 Jul 19
Imran Khan is scheduled to visit the US this week. He meets Trump on 22 Jul. The Pak foreign office has been projecting this meeting as the turning point in Pak-US relations. The meeting comes at a time when Pak is facing deep financial problems, tensions with India continue and peace talks between the US and the Taliban leadership are progressing slowly. It is also struggling to stay off the FATA Blacklist, while it remains on its Grey List. Pak has been left with just two major allies, China and Saudi Arabia.
Pak-India tensions have remained since Balakote, despite recent meetings on the Kartarpur corridor and commencement of Track II diplomacy. Though it has opened its airspace after months yet remains fearful of another Indian strike. It had denied two and knows it may not be able to deny a third.
Trump has, since coming to power, accused Pak of playing a double game on Taliban, absorbing US money to fund the Taliban. He therefore stopped all aid to Pak including funds for training Pak officers in the US. Trump had called the Pak bluff on its lack of contact with the Taliban leadership. The bluff worked and Pak pushed the Taliban for talks. However, it has neither stopped supporting the Taliban offensives in Afghanistan not acted against terrorist groups and its leaders which are responsible for militancy in Kashmir.
Imran is desperate to meet Trump. He would be moving with a few agenda points, India being the main. Officially Imran would be rushing to thank Trump for releasing the IMF loan, which the US had initially threatened to block, claiming that the loan would be used to clear Chinese loans. In addition, he would project to the US to recommence its aid and grants, especially those which pertain to the Pak army, as Pak is in dire financial doldrums and has limited funds for enhancing military capabilities. He would also request the US to apply pressure on FATF to remove Pak from the Grey List.
He is desperate to thank the US for labelling the Baluch Liberation Army (BLA) as a terrorist organization, which is possibly to thank Pak for pushing the Taliban for talks. This would benefit Pak as it could enhance its military operations against them, increase its forced disappearances and prevent its members from seeking asylum abroad easily. He is bound to complain that it is India, which is funding the now declared terrorist group, BLA. He would quote the arrest of Kulbhushan as the proof and desire that the US warn India on the same.
On Afghanistan, Imran would have a single point agenda. Pakistan would support every US action and would push the Taliban into an agreement suiting the US, provided the US promises to keep India away from Afghanistan. The formation of the group of four, US, Russia, China and Pakistan, would give it some leeway and control. Pak has realized that even within Afghanistan, India has a better reputation and standing than Pak ever had.
Indian investments, development projects, education scholarships, medical assistance and soft power have won over the common Afghani, whereas Pak is considered an enemy seeking its destruction. Thus, any government, which comes in coalition with the Taliban, is likely to be more inclined towards India. Pak’s concept of Afghanistan being its strategic depth is all but over. This is unacceptable to Pak but there is little within its control.
Tensions with India are hurting Pak much more than is being projected. Its income from overflights had led to large financial losses, forward deployment of its forces has impacted its military preparedness. Further, Pak’s financial condition has resulted in it possessing fuel for only five days of fighter flying, hence in case of a conflict with India, it would be unable to sustain.
Imran would also complain of Indian unwillingness to talk. For Pak, talks with India on Kashmir, while it supports the ongoing militancy in the valley, would be icing on the cake. He is aware of growing Indo-US relations and would desire that the US use its good offices to push India for talks. He would project that resolution of Kashmir could bring peace and development in the sub-continent, including in Afghanistan.
While Imran may have a list of complaints, most would be heard but remain unacted upon. For the US, despite its desperation to withdraw from Afghanistan, India remains a closer ally. It has limited trust on Pak. It would seek Pak’s greater involvement to peace in Afghanistan, which Imran may promise, but never be able to fulfil, as he remains the “selected” Prime Minister. This can only be done by their army chief, the “selector”, who acts independent of Imran. Cooperation on Afghanistan and curtailing the Taliban may even be conveyed as a direct threat to Pak, which it may never officially accept.
At the end of the day, Pak may gain nothing. However, Qureshi, the Pak foreign minister, known to peddle fake comments to Pak media, would mention a successful visit and state that Trump heard everything and promised to stand by Pak, whereas the reality may be far different.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army