Future of Afghanistan appears bleak CENJOWS 30 Jul 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=194
Future of Afghanistan appears bleak CENJOWS 30 Jul 19
For months Afghan peace talks have continued between the US special envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, and the Taliban leadership in Qatar. Khalilzad is himself a Pashtun which is the clan which controls the Taliban. In the meanwhile, seeking to gain international recognition, the Taliban interacted separately with Russia and China, while it continues to maintain close contact with the Pak deep state. It recently also announced that it is willing to visit Pak and meet Imran, if a formal invitation is given to them.
The Taliban has also held talks with ‘Representatives of Afghanistan’, in their individual capacity. The US appears to be bending towards Taliban demands of delaying Presidential elections in the country and forming an interim government, whose members may suit the Taliban.
The rising power of the Taliban is on four grounds. The first is the emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan, of whom the Taliban is a sworn enemy. The second is that over the years, the US has not been able to reduce the territory held by the Taliban, despite massive deployment of force. Hence it is aware that its only option is to strike any form of deal and run, a fact which the Taliban has realized, but the US leadership seeks to dispel. The third is the support it is receiving from Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan, while it continues its charade of talks with the US. The final is the US desperation to withdraw.
Post the last round of intra Afghan talks a joint statement was issued, which remains non-binding. The joint statement mentioned protecting civilians and ensuring security of public institutions including schools and hospitals, while war would continue. This has already been ignored by the Taliban. It has refused to negotiate with the current Afghan government, terming it the puppet of the US.
The true reason for their refusal is that by talking to the government, they would lose legitimacy and be termed as terrorists or rebels seeking peace with representatives of the populace, the elected government. Those negotiating with the Taliban have accepted their logic, despite knowing it to be fake and unrealistic.
Through all these talks, a ceasefire which is the commencement of peace is nowhere on the horizon. There have been instances where Taliban leaders have stated that a ceasefire cannot be declared as it could impact morale of fighters on the ground. On other occasions, the same leaders have stated that the fight to liberate Afghanistan from foreign forces would continue. In the bargain, the only casualties are civilians trapped on both sides. It has only added to the US desperately seeking a withdrawal.
In his latest effort, Khalilzad formed a group of three, US, China, and Russia, to push forward the peace process. The group met in Beijing and issued a statement underscoring their consensus on peace-making in Afghanistan and signalling their intention to speed up the peace process.
Pakistan has now been added to the group, implying that it can play an important role in facilitating peace in Afghanistan. This inclusion came just prior to the visit of the Pak army chief to the US, accompanied by their ‘selected’ Prime Minister. Subsequently, there were reports that India, a major contributor to Afghanistan’s development and a military power in the region has been elbowed out of the peace talks. This will reduce Indian influence in the country and with any future government.
In Washington, Trump pushed Pak to play a larger role in the peace process. For the Pak leadership, any action which keeps India away from Afghanistan would be acceptable. Thus, their demand would have been that India should have no role in their backyard.
The US ignored Indian suggestions made during the visit of Mike Pompeo to Delhi, when India had conveyed that Presidential elections must not be delayed, and the US should not rush into a peace deal and withdraw. India also laid down three new ‘redlines’ for Afghan talks. These are, ‘all initiatives and processes must include all sections of the Afghan society, including the legitimately elected government’, ‘any process should respect the constitutional legacy and political mandate’ and ‘peace should not lead to ungoverned spaces where terrorists and their proxies can relocate.’
This implies continuing with the Afghan led and Afghan owned talks, continuation of democracy in the country as against Islamic rule which Taliban desires and ensuring no presence of any terrorist group including those presently based in Pak. These are logical and would also ensure that the Taliban control is not as it was before and the country does not harbour terrorists. However, with Pak insisting India’s exclusion from the peace process, it should be the US which should push the Indian agenda.
The German special envoy for Afghanistan, Markus Potzel, on a visit to New Delhi stated, ‘We would hope India would be part of the coming rounds of conversations on Afghanistan.’ He added, ‘Germany shares India’s concerns on both an interim/transitional the government in Afghanistan or even postponing or cancelling the presidential elections, currently scheduled for September 28.’
Trump has since becoming President attempted every means to pull out of Afghanistan, without any strategic consideration. He appears to even ignore the advice of his senior military commanders, who have been advising against it, aware that in the long term, unless strong guarantees are received and power sharing arrangements created, Afghanistan will revert to what it was prior to 9/11 and become a headache for the world. A repeat of ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’ may never again be possible. His desperation was evident when he mentioned employment of nukes to end the Afghan war in his press conference with Imran.
General Mark Milley, Trump’s nominee for Chairman Joint Chief’s of Staff stated in his Senate Armed Services confirmation hearing, ‘withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan too soon would be a strategic mistake.’ He added, ‘I think it is slow, it’s painful, it’s hard — I spent a lot of my life in Afghanistan — but I also think it’s necessary.’ He made these comments regarding maintaining US troops in Afghanistan.
The future of Afghanistan appears bleak due to erroneous acceptances by the US in its haste to withdraw. The Taliban is unlikely to ever contest elections but demand the country on a platter. This will remove the myth of the US being the holder of international democracy. The US has sought to remove autocrats across the globe and in the case of Afghanistan is officially promoting a religious government which will become the worst abusers of Human Rights.
The US is seeking a simple commitment from the Taliban, that it would not permit any terrorist activities aimed at the US or its allies from its soil. This is nothing but hogwash. The Taliban, Al Qaeda and the LeT are operating together in Afghanistan. These are confirmed reports and available with the US leadership. While the Taliban seeks international guarantee of US withdrawal, it has failed to provide the same on its side of the commitments.
It has managed this because the US has kept the UN, which should have by now been a part of the negotiations out of the picture. Logically, like in other conflict zones, there should have been a deployment of a UN peacekeeping force, till elections can be held and a democratic government elected. Further, as per Col Rahman Rahmani, an Afghan writer, “People who know Islam are aware of KHID’A (deceit), a tactical word that can legitimate Déjà vu, all over again. Muslims are allowed to not adhere to agreements they sign with infidels they are in fight. Based on this, Taliban terrorists can deny any agreement at any time and they will.”
Evidence of Taliban’s approach to the future is already being displayed. In recent days, it has forced the Swedish Committee for Afghanistan to close 42 of its 77 health facilities in Wardak province affecting thousands of locals. Schools for women in the areas it controls have been closed. Strikes by the Taliban across the country have neither stopped nor reduced in intensity, despite its promises.
The US is pushing the Pak agenda while it desperately seeks to withdraw. With signs of US troops withdrawing, the Taliban would have members of the Pak army and other terrorist groups fighting alongside it to overrun the country and create its own state, ignoring all its agreements.
The last time the US invaded Afghanistan, it did so with the support of the Northern Alliance, which was battling the Taliban. If an international incident launched from Afghanistan occurs again, the US would have no way of responding, apart from targeting innocent civilians, employing its cruise missiles. Further, Pak would use Afghanistan as a base for training of terrorists to destabilize the entire subcontinent and maybe beyond. The rise of the ISIS within the country, with an unstable government would imply greater instability and far reaching consequences for its neighbours.
Hence, the Indian redlines bear logic. Holding of elections prior to any discussion between the government and Taliban would give the country some stability and lead to power sharing, rather than a Taliban ruled state.
Every military commander in the US has warned the Trump leadership of avoiding a hasty withdrawal, an advice which he seeks to ignore. There is an urgent need for the US to look beyond the immediate present and assess future ramifications of its present decisions. It must understand that one destabilized and terrorist infested country can impact the entire globe.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army