Pak’s actions are due to internal pressures CENJOWS 14 Aug 19
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Pak’s actions are due to internal pressures CENJOWS 14 Aug 19
After a lull of almost five months, Pak reactivated its terrorist camps along the LoC and enhanced ceasefire violations and infiltration attempts. It moved the brother of Masood Azar, who remains under arrest, to POK to reactivate its terrorist launch pads. Balakote had given Pak a lesson which took months to overcome. Their airspace remained closed and economy suffered. They attempted to link the opening of airspace to movement of Indian aircraft back from their forward airbases, an action which India refused. Finally, in frustration, they opened their airspace.
As per reports, Pak attempted ceasefire violations including employing its Border Action Teams (BAT) just prior to the visit of Imran to the US. These were repulsed. Subsequently, emboldened by Trump’s offer of mediation, Pak increased ceasefire violations including enhancing the calibre of weapons. In early August, it launched a BAT on Indian forces deployed on the Manjit Forward Post in early August.
In this action, it lost all members of the BAT. India offered to Pak to collect its dead under a white flag, which was rejected by them stating that Indian information was false. This despite India displaying pictures of dead soldiers. Pak remains the only nation which refuses to honour its own soldiers, killed complying with orders from their hierarchy, only to safeguard its domestic image.
Indian forces have responded heavily to Pak’s ceasefire violations employing long range Bofor guns to target Pakistan posts and terrorist camps located in the vicinity of villages in the Neelam Valley. To protect its own failings and seeking to apply pressure on India, Pak played its game of ‘lies, deceit and deception (LDD).’ It claimed India had employed banned cluster ammunition, a fact India rejected.
Pak’s actions were aimed at influencing international groups visiting Pak. A ten member European Union Members of Parliament delegation was in Pak from 27 Jul to 04 Aug. Simultaneously, Pakistan also hosted the 5th Parliamentary Commonwealth Association, Asian Regional Conference from 29th Jul to 02 Aug. By raising Indian actions in Kashmir, enhanced firing including banned ammunition it aimed to internationalize Kashmir.
India has never sought an escalation along the LoC. Pak commences and Indian response pushes them on the backfoot.
Over decades Pak created a halo around Kashmir, projecting to its masses, even in school textbooks, that the survival of the state and the size and budget of its armed forces is to counter threat from India and regain Kashmir. The hatred created within its population is aimed at ensuring that there would never be peace nor talks, as it would impact the power of its army.
Thus, when India changed the Kashmir narrative by revoking Article 370, Pak was forced to act. The Pak senate and the army leadership met separately to condemn the decision. They were aware initially itself that internationally they will have very little support. The Pak government and army began facing flak from opposition parties for failed policies and had little answers.
It realized that its stand on Kashmir has weakened, while there was growing internal anger. The reason for Pak’s announced actions against India has more to do with their internal situation than to support the Kashmiri cause.
Within Pak, the economy is on a downswing. The PM, based on directions of the IMF, was forced to increase prices of petrol and diesel, while world prices are dropping. As a PM he was also compelled to pass instructions to reduce cost of Roti’s and Naan, the locals staple diet. Inflation was rising and stock market losing value daily. Joblessness is increasing.
In addition, continuation on the Grey List of the FATF looms large. During the visit of the US delegation last week, led by Allice Wells, Assistant Secretary of State of the US, Pak was told to show tangible and satisfactory actions against banned organisations and their leaderships to pacify more countries towards supporting its case to move out of the Grey List of FATF.
Teresa Daban Sanchez, IMF’s Resident Representative for Pakistan stated, ‘Failure to exit from the FATF grey list is a risk to the recently approved $6 billion IMF deal.’ This implies that unless Pak acts against known terror groups, there would be no chance of it being lifted from the Grey List. For the Pak government the best option would be to push Trump to enhance pressure on India for talks. This is unlikely as the US has accepted the Indian stand.
The Pak army has suffered immensely at the hands of Baluch rebels in recent times. In one incident alone they lost ten soldiers. This was a slap on their claim to have the region under control. In KP and Wazirabad the PTM is on the rise. The Pakistan Taliban (TTP) had issued a warning in Miramshah in North Waziristan against playing loud music and accepting polio drops. This goes against their claims of eradicating terrorism from the region.
Further, the army has maintained its force levels and budget solely on the logic of amalgamating Kashmir and warding off the Indian threat. With the Indian action, its raison d’etre has been lost. Pressures on it are bound to rise. It must act in some form.
With lack of international support and restrictions due to financial shortcomings, it has only two options for Kashmir. It could either enhance unrest in the valley to levels, which would be noticed globally, by rumourmongering and tasking its over ground workers or push in terrorists to raise levels of militancy in Kashmir, regaining control.
In enhancing rumourmongering, Pak hoped to be assisted by senior Hurriyat leaders, local Imams and members of valley based political parties. This was blocked by the Indian government, which removed all who could support the fake Pak narrative from Kashmir and controlled availability of media. Pak began spreading reports of fake clashes and subsequent deaths to add to the confusion.
It is also aware that militancy in Kashmir has been brought under control. Of the 121 militants eliminated upto Jun this year 21 were Pak nationals. Thus, it was losing control as the militancy was moving into local hands and these untrained militants were being eliminated within months of picking the gun. Even recruitment of local militants is down.
Infiltration of terrorists also needs to be carefully considered. Hence it is working on induction of either al Qaeda members or residents of POK. None of them would be affiliated to known terrorist groups as the FATF threat looms large. While ceasefire violations are restricted presently, they could rise as Pak increases its army deployment.
For Pak, the only saving grace in its current dire financial straits is to shift its internal problems and shortcomings onto Indian aggressiveness and decision on Kashmir. This would lead to enhanced nationalism and compel the common man to accept his dire state, blaming India. Hence, its announcements for solidarity and Black days on 14 and 15th Aug.
Officially, Pak would fulfil all its obligations by raising the issue in the UNSC, OIC and when their PM addresses the UN General Assembly. Beyond this, there is little they can do.
Imran is worried about his own position. In case internal pressure increases, the first casualty would be Imran, the ‘selected would become the unselected’. The army would rope him in a fake legal case, like his opponents and push the pressure away from themselves. To protect themselves from further criticism, they have even moved Maryam Sharif to prison. Qureshi is waiting in the wings for Imran’s chair. Bajwa is now assured of an extension. Ignoring his extension would have Imran signing his own death warrant.
India must ensure the failure of Pak plans as also expose its lies, deceit, deception plans and counter its military actions. Internationally, it should continue to isolate Pak. FATF pressure must remain. Pak should be compelled to accept a diplomatic defeat.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army