National power dominates relationships CENJOWS 19 Aug 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=203
National power dominates relationships CENJOWS 19 Aug 19
International support to India and the reverse to Pakistan, post the abolition of Article 370 and amalgamation of J and K into India proved India’s standing in the global environment. The present government employed its full first term to project the role and power of India as also its contribution in the international environment. It built enduring relations with all major powers and projected its willingness to join multilateral agreements, both economic and military.
Further the growing Indian economy and its huge market remains a major attraction for all developed countries. This has made India a country which the head of every nation desires to visit and seeks economic and military cooperation and collaboration. India’s defence procurements are a major attraction.
The growth of Indian national power can be gauged by the actions of Saudi Arabia and UAE post the Indian government’s decision of abolishing Article 370. Both these countries, apart from being major members of the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC), are also close partners of Pakistan.
Desperately seeking financial and other support from these two traditional allies prompted Imran Khan to chauffer the Saudi and UAE heads of state but was rebuked by them on Kashmir. They chose to stand by India rather than criticise it for its actions. This broke Pak’s confidence and compelled it to face reality that it stands alone.
While the UAE’s ambassador to India openly supported Indian actions, the Saudi’s were mute in their response. To indicate their support to India, they signed an investment deal worth over 70 Billion USD, with Reliance Industries Limited during the same period. Pak had been dumped by those whom it considered its closest allies. It had missed the growing Indian relationship with these states and banked on religion as the binding factor. It ignored changing international dynamics.
In some manner, this was a repeat of the OIC announcements when the issue of Chinese actions against the Uyghurs was discussed. Just prior to the discussion, the Chinese President, Xi Jinping sent a letter and promised closer economic cooperation with OIC countries. This made OIC nations jump over one another in supporting China for its actions against Uyghurs, while the western world continued to criticise it. Clearly, the dollar has far greater value than religion, a fact that Pakistan ignores mainly when it concerns Indo-Pak relations.
Pakistan on the other hand is a failing state, struggling to survive economically, with its leadership running across the globe with a begging bowl. It is also in danger of being downgraded to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist. Apart from seeking funds, it is desperately seeking allies to avoid being downgraded. The national power of Pak is almost zero, as it is struggling in every form. Despite claiming to be the backbone state of the Muslim world, its own trusted Muslim allies have turned their back to it.
Pakistan approached Poland, which is the present rotating President of the UN Security Council (UNSC), hoping to bring the aspect of Article 370 into the UNSC. It was turned down on the basis that a mechanism in the form of the Shimla agreement and Lahore declaration already exists. The same response was also given by the Secretary General of the UN.
China, walking a thin line, in maintaining a balance between India and Pakistan, sought a closed-door meeting of the UNSC. It quoted the Pak objection, not its own. This may give Pak some credibility but as a diplomat stated, ‘The minutes or other details of a closed-door meeting will not be made public as it is only meant to encourage members to speak freely. This is just an exchange of views and no record is kept nor any formal outcome decided.’
Pak had for decades been fooling its population on the concept of Jihad and gaining back Kashmir. In one stroke, it is no longer disputed nor even open for discussion. It has gained no international support for its cause. Its use of Jihadi elements in desperation would only tighten its own noose. It has missed the fact that the world is tired of terrorism and nations which support it. The world desires economic cooperation with those which can afford it.
A nation with no power would never be respected. While India towed the Israeli line, which was aptly described by Benjamin Netanyahu, when he stated, ‘The strong are respected, and alliances are made with the strong, and in the end peace is made with the strong,’ Pak continued believing religion is a binding factor, even greater than economic cooperation, an aspect which has been proved wrong.
Pak chose the wrong path decades ago, hoping it would compel India to back down. It never envisaged that India would retaliate and hit back, while developing economically and militarily, ignoring talks with Pak. It had once considered itself to be in the driver’s seat on Kashmir, but now finds itself not even on the backseat.
Pak which survived on challenging a growing economic and military power, secure in enhancing internal hatred and banking on nuclear weapons, is now facing near isolation. Its military leadership, controlling foreign and security policies has ignored the economic front. The world seeks economic partnerships as that determines international power.
International relations are moving to a system of multilateral security alliances and economic partnerships. The old system of employing terrorist groups as an instrument of state policy to coerce neighbours is now extinct. While some nations may support terrorist groups for their own benefits, this can occur only in countries with shattered economies, Yemen being a prime example. Countries would prefer enhancing relations with nations which have strong national power.
Pak has missed the bus. It is too late for it to reverse its standing. It should have, like the rest of South Asia, joined hands with the Indian developmental model, rather than choosing confrontation as a means of foreign policy. It is spending more than can be afforded on defence, as its ruling army demanded, leaving it with almost nothing for its own development. It will continue being ignored by its own so-called allies and religious partners and would be forced to struggle for international support.
India should exploit this and push Pak further downhill. Enhancing conventional military power will force Pak to further ignore economic development to meet Indian military challenges, moving the country further downhill.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army