India must neutralize the desperation within Pak CENJOWS 27 Aug 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=206
India must neutralize the desperation within Pak 27 Aug 19
Another day goes by with some curbs being lifted in the valley and no reports of any major violence. Another day of frustration for the Pak government. Its propaganda machinery under its DG ISPR is primed and waiting to release a burst of fake messages to target youth in the valley, aiming to make them resort to violence. The more civilian casualties in the valley, the more Pak would gain. Lives matter little.
The DG ISPR’s social media cell has a collection of videos, either from Pak’s own atrocities in Baluchistan and North Waziristan or from the disturbances in the valley post the elimination of Burhan Wani, suitably doctored for the valley. They are ready to be released to instigate violence, but internet curbs remain in force. This adds to their desperation hence they keep calling for lifting curbs on the internet.
Imran, like all his predecessors, gave an interview to the New York Times, last week, projecting once again that India is responsible for all its ills, mainly Kashmir, without which Pak could collapse as a nation state. Every Pak PM has resorted to this exercise, aimed at seeking US support. Every day Pak dreams of one new item to its agenda of actions against India. Amongst its latest is approaching the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Internally, many in Pak believe that ICJ is a no-go option.
Their desperation is visible when statements made by world leaders are twisted to suit the Pak narrative. Even words like ‘bilateral talks’ are converted to read that India must talk to Pak. The most prominent case was of Sri Lanka, where the Pak High Commissioner released a statement post his meeting with their President only to be countered by the office of the Sri Lankan President, denying such a comment. To prevent such instances, all nations to whom Pak talks presently, issue statements to clarify their views before fake Pak releases, Maldives being the latest. Its international standing drops daily.
In between their desperate cries for attention comes few realistic comments stating that there is no support for their demands from either the West or even their own brethren. What added insult to injury was Saudi government owned Aramco signing an over USD 70 Billion deal with Reliance Industries and the UAE honouring Modi with the order of Zayed, the highest civil decoration of the country. This was conferred on him in Apr this year. Support from the OIC is also cracking. Bangladesh issued its own statement supporting India, as did UAE and Saudi Arabia. SAARC, though defunct has backed India, Nepal being the last to support bilateral talks.
China did provide some support, which died a natural death, when the closed-door session of the UN ended without even a press release or a statement. Since then, considering having done its part, China remains silent. Trump’s continuing offer to mediate has no grounds as mediation can only occur if both sides relent. He is aware that India is not Pakistan and he has limited options.
Pressure on Pak to support Afghanistan peace talks continues unabated. Thus, while it got nothing but just some small words of support, Pak must fulfil all its commitments towards Afghanistan. Nothing could be a greater insult to the country. The reality of its dire situation remains hidden from its masses.
The Pak leadership is lucky that all its opposition leaders, who could have embarrassed the government are behind bars. The press is guzzled to the extent that apart from the official narrative, nothing else flows. This has ensured that anger within the country is contained and directed towards India, while its citizens are given new promises by the day. The army has been doing its share by swearing to fight for the Kashmiris till the end, knowing that apart from capability deficiencies they lack fuel and ammunition stocks.
At the same time, Pak is fearful of the FATF. Its failing economy desperately needs support from the IMF. The recent meeting of the Asia Pacific Group of the FATF found Pak lacking on most counts and placed it in the Enhanced Expedited Follow Up List (possibly Blacklisted or confirmed on the Grey List in the meeting next month). Threat on cancellation of aid on account of being downgraded or remaining on the Grey List has reduced Pak’s options.
When the separatists called for Bandhs in the valley for prolonged duration post the elimination of Burhan Wani, Pak stood in support. At that time, those who were sick were even prevented from moving to the hospital. Now when the Indian government has controlled movement, however not prevented move to hospitals, Pak cries.
Pak has two choices. Firstly, and most secure option is to spread fake news to enhance violence while the other option is to risk international criticism and push in terrorists, leading to a major strike, which could be blamed on Indian desire to enhance conflict. The assessment of every Pak agency has been that as soon as curbs are lifted, violence will rise.
Pak is aware that it possesses superiority over India only in social media warfare, to which the valley population remains gullible. It is exploiting precisely this to display its support for the Kashmir cause, instigate Kashmiris, hoping to create an uprising in the coming days. Simultaneously, it is quoting select bloggers and writers in India, who due to sheer hatred of the ruling party, have begun singing the Pak narrative.
India, aware of Pak intentions, has ensured that instigators of violence including the Hurriyat and valley based political leaders, who exploited Article 370 to the hilt remain away from the valley. Pak knows that international memories are short. Another international incident may occur, and Kashmir would be on the backburner once again.
The Pak army has suffered at Indian hands in every ceasefire violation. It is aware that it is incapable of fighting a conventional war with India. A terrorist attack could lead to an Indian military strike which may escalate and enable it to threaten nuclear retaliation, compelling the world to broker peace. As a precaution, Imran has been stating in every interview that India could stage an internal attack and blame Pak, leading to a conflict.
Pak has a limited window. PMs of both, India and Pak, address the UN General Assembly on 27th and 28th Sept respectively, with India ahead. If the valley remains peaceful till then, Imran would have lost the battle.
Modi would not base his talk on either Kashmir or Pak but on international matters and India’s role in the world. He would harp little on Pak, except to talk about the pending UN resolutions on terrorism and terrorist states. Kashmir may be mentioned in passing.
For Imran this is his test. He has no choice but to project Pak’s stance on Kashmir in a convincing manner. After all, this is Pak’s last chance to officially raise Kashmir. Imran needs violence in Kashmir to project his views. A silent and peaceful valley would break his rhythm and leave him with almost nothing to speak on.
India needs to ensure that it controls the situation strongly till then and gives Khan the shut-up call. Calls for lifting restrictions from individuals across the globe, unknown UN groups and few nations must be ignored. There is no rush to remove existing curbs in the valley. Sealing the LoC and pressure on terrorists must continue. India should act as it deems fit to ensure there is no violence and the situation remains calm.
Pak cannot be permitted to win. Setbacks may occur, but the situation brought back under control at the earliest with minimum force.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army