Modi-Xi summit only considered Indo-China relations CENJOWS 14 Oct 19
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Modi-Xi summit only considered Indo-China relations CENJOWS 14 Oct 19
The much-hyped Modi-Xi summit concluded in Mamallaluram on 12th Oct. The summit lasted two days, during which there were over five and a half hours of discussions, including one to one meetings and delegation level talks. Both sides stated that they had ‘candid’, ‘heart to heart’ discussions on bilateral issues.
The opening remarks by the leaders were indicative of their attempt to reset ties. Modi’s statement read, ‘We had decided that we will prudently manage our differences, and not allow them to become disputes, we will remain sensitive about each other’s concerns and that our relations will lead to peace and stability across the world. These are our big achievements, and these will inspire us to do more in future.’
Xi’s statement at the summit was, ‘We have deeper strategic communication, more effective practical cooperation, more diverse people-to-people and cultural exchanges and we have closer cooperation on multilateral occasions. What has happened has proved that we made the right decision to have this kind of informal summit and we can well continue with this form of meeting,’
Amongst the major takeaways was that the Chinese leadership agreed to seek solutions to reduce trade deficit, addressing Indian concerns on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) of ASEAN, which India is hesitating to sign, enhance defence cooperation and work together to deal with the challenges of terrorism. Towards this end it was decided to establish a High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue mechanism with the objective of achieving enhanced trade and commercial relations, as well as to better balance the trade between the two countries.
The summit having concluded, both leaders back in their own countries, the question which remains in everyone’s mind is ‘would anything change’?
It is important to note that just two days prior to his visit, Xi Jinping had met Imran, and Chinese statements post the visit included that China was monitoring the situation in Kashmir closely and endorsed Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir. The Chinese foreign minister had even raised Kashmir as part of his address at the UN General Assembly and it was China which had demanded a closed session meeting to discuss Kashmir at the UNSC.
Reports also mentioned that Xi briefed Modi on the recent visit of Imran Khan to China. There was also a discussion on the impact of curtailing terror financing, possibly on employing FATF against rogue nations. This indicates that China would have conveyed that its support to Pak should not be linked to Indo-China relations.
There was no formal mention of Kashmir, not were Indian actions discussed. Even if it was discussed, it was not part of any formal dialogue and may have been in a bilateral. Clearly, China desired to keep its relationship with Pakistan away from the discussions, while India kept its partnership with the US away.
India made no mention of Indo-US ties, of India being a major partner in the QUAD nor Indo-Japanese exercises, issues which concern China. India also never mentioned Chinese incursions into the South China Sea and Chinese actions in preventing Indian explorations for oil off the Vietnam coast.
India also never raised its objections to the BRI and the fact that it transgressed Gilgit Baltistan, an area India considers as part of J and K. Possibly there were also no discussions on Indian sale of BrahMos missiles to Vietnam and other nations of ASEAN. Irritants on both sides were ignored.
For India, the implications are clear. Despite all bonhomie, there is unlikely to be any major solution to the border issue and standoffs between the two forces may continue, reasons justifying the same may vary. Simultaneously, these standoffs would be resolved peacefully. China’s support to Pak would also remain as before. Pak would not be downgraded to the blacklist in the FATF as China would be one the three essential nations backing it. China may again rake up Kashmir and back Pakistan where required.
China has always propped up Pak as a counter to India and it would continue to do so. Its investments in the CPEC would ensure Pak is continually supported in all international forums. Nor would China ever permit India into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), as other nations would oppose the entry of Pak. Hence, Indo-China relations at the international level would always be viewed by China through the prism of Pakistan.
In recent times, India has not commented on any Chinese actions, whether it be Hong Kong, Xinjiang or Tibet, while China has regularly mentioned Kashmir and support to Pakistan whenever it is deemed fit. There is no doubt that one of the major irritants between the two countries is China’s support to Pakistan, which has enabled it to continue pushing terrorism into India. The same would continue.
Thus, the discussions only hovered around Indo-China ties and issues which are between the two nations directly, ignoring any change in stance at the global level. The major benefit is that the two sides discussed the boundary issue, terrorism, trade deficit and decided to set up minister level mechanism for trade partnership.
Despite all Modi-Xi bonhomie, Indo-China talks would never rise beyond those aspects which impact only the two nations directly. It would never cover cooperation on the global stage, nor would they support each other in international forums. While India may abstain from voting against China, the same cannot be said about China. It is unlikely that the two would even cooperate at the regional level. However, tensions and differences in trade and military confrontations may witness an improvement.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army