Pakistan and US expectations are contrasting CENJOWS 27 Jan 2020
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=238
Pakistan and US expectations are contrasting CENJOWS 27 Jan 2020
Last week there were two major events connecting Pak and the US. The first was an interaction between Donald Trump and Imran Khan on the side lines of World Economic Forum meeting at Davos, and the second was a visit to Pakistan by the US Acting Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, Alice Wells. She visited Pak after spending three days in Delhi. While the two events were not directly linked, they conveyed the right message to Pak.
It should be realized that any positive development in Indo-US relations is viewed with jealousy in Pak. This was evident in the comments in the joint press conference of Imran and Trump and a subsequent statement by SM Qureshi, their foreign minister. During the press interaction, Trump ruled out a visit to Pak, stating that he is meeting Imran in Davos. Trump stated, ‘We are visiting right now, so we will not really have to,’ clearly ruling out a Pak visit.
This was backed by the official US statement. Subsequently, Qureshi mentioned to the press that Trump assured Imran that he would visit Pakistan shortly. To cover the confusion and back Qureshi, the Pak foreign office subsequently clarified, ‘President Trump wants an exclusive visit to Pakistan which is not linked to any other visit in the region because Pakistan has its own distinct place.’
The visit by Alice Wells conveyed serious US concerns to Pak. She highlighted that Pak must adopt irreversible actions against terrorist groups operating against India. This was an essential step if Pak wanted to convince the world that it was acting against terrorism. It appears this message was conveyed as a warning on behalf of India as Pak remains concerned about Indian retaliation and offensive actions across the LoC.
Simultaneously, Wells conveyed US perception on CPEC. She stated in a think tank event that CPEC, with Chinese funding, was pushing Pak into a debt trap, as Pak was taking expensive loans. Evidently, no nation, specifically China, gives grants. Every penny given by China is a loan, rates of interest may vary. Currently Sri Lanka, Kenya and other African nations are already in deep Chinese debt and handing over major assets to China due to default in payments.
She mentioned that there was no transparency in the project and added that companies blacklisted by the World Bank had received contracts for the CPEC. This is the hard truth. Pak has been seeking better trade ties with the US. Evidently, the US is keen to pull Pak back from Chinese influence as it seeks to curb Chinese expansion, prior to pushing its own investments in the country.
The Chinese reaction was as expected. China contradicted US comments, though aware that Pak was increasingly becoming financially beholden to it. It challenged all US remarks, less on blacklisted companies, which it conveniently ignored. Panic within the Pak leadership on Alice Wells comments were evident, with PM Imran Khan, foreign minister SM Qureshi, and their foreign office using every opportunity to rebut Alice Well’s comments. In an editorial in the Dawn on 24 Jan, Aasim Sajjad Akhtar very correctly stated, ‘rest assured China is not giving us a freebie.’
Pak sought US help in different spheres. It sought US mediation in Kashmir, backing Pak’s stance against India, increased aid and trade as also support in removing it from the FATF Grey List. It desired this as gratitude for it pushing the Taliban for talks and for compelling it to announce a ceasefire as also backing US offensive actions against Iranian General Soleimani.
The US is aware that its twin strategy of IMF loans and FATF blacklist threats forced Pak to act against terrorist groups. The pressure of the US also resulted in Pak pushing the Taliban into some form of talks, though not yet to US satisfaction. As talks progress, Pak expects some gratification, which if it does not flow, could result in a push back. It is evident that Pak is not keen on Taliban-Afghan government talks and is hoping for the country being handed on a platter to the Taliban, which is unlikely.
Further, US and Indian pressures have forced Pak to reconsider its Kashmir strategy. While it may continue harping against India globally on Kashmir and the Citizen Amendment Act (CAA), however it has reduced attempts at direct interference in Kashmir employing its proxies. This is because the US possibly warned Pak that it would back Indian counteractions, in case of a major strike.
The Trump-Imran meeting had the standard comments, most of which need a discard. Trump has claimed a close relationship with every international leader and considered all as friends. With Imran he stated, ‘I wanted to say hello for both a relationship standpoint… we have had a great relationship.’ He even said the same about Kim Jong Un of North Korea, with whom talks have faltered.
His standard quote on Kashmir was ‘We are working together on some borders, and we are talking about Kashmir and the relation to what is going on with Pakistan and India. And if we can help, we certainly will be helping. And we have been watching that and following it very, very closely.’ This comment has come every time he has met Imran, but never when he has met Modi.
The world must remember that this is the same Trump who had stated that India and China do not share a common border. Washington Post journalists Phillip Rucker and Carol Leonning wrote in their book, ‘A Very Stable Genius,’ that Trump mentioned to Modi, ‘It’s not like you’ve got China on your border.’ Hence, such comments from Trump have been ignored by India apart from issuing a standard denial. Even Pak has accepted that nothing would ever happen, these are just words flowing from Trump.
Trump on his part was mainly concerned about Afghanistan and Pak pressure on the Taliban to remain engaged. The US is aware that this is a result of application of multiple pressures on Pak.
It would continue with its policy of pressure on Pak, despite all Pak attempts of blackmailing the Afghan peace process. This was evident as there was no response from the US on Imran requesting for US support in removing Pak from the Grey List. The recent meeting in Beijing did display some global support to Pak for its actions, however for the moment it may remain on the Grey List.
The subtle message given by Alice Wells to Pak on irreversible actions against terrorists, pulling back from openly backing terrorism in India, continue pushing the Taliban for talks and shunning Chinese support for the CPEC should be well accepted.
While Pak may act on pulling back from supporting strong terrorist actions in Kashmir, which it is already slowly implementing, aware of Indian policy of strong retaliation, and pushing the Taliban for talks, it may not act on other aspects. It cannot take decisive action against terrorist leaders within its own country, as they possess a demi-God image, and strong action against them could reverberate within. It cannot easily back down from Chinese financial assistance, despite being aware of shortcomings as it currently possesses no other international support.
However, since there is no global support on its regular international screaming on Kashmir, CAA and possible Indian offensive actions, it would continue with the same, more for domestic audiences than for global consumption. This benefits Pak as it seeks to divert internal economic concerns and rising unemployment. This would have to be accepted by India and ignored.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army