Pak will seek to activate terrorism in Kashmir CENJOWS 13 Mar 2020
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Pak will seek to activate terrorism in Kashmir 13 Mar 2020
The confidence of the central government on the internal situation in Kashmir was evident last week when it lifted the final communication restrictions and opened social media sites. However, it maintained that speed restrictions would remain in place till mid-March. Presently, the only major sticking point of international concern remains detention of major political players in the valley. The reason for the government confidence is based on data released recently.
The number of incidents in the valley witnessed a sharp dip in 2019. The number of terrorist incidents reduced to 161 as compared to 254 in 2018. The number of youth joining militant ranks dropped to 119 as compared to 220 in 2018. From 14 youth a month joining militant ranks in previous years the figure dropped to 5 post Aug 19. The drop was also noticed in districts which had been militancy supportive.
The peace that presently exists in the valley is countered with heightened tensions along the LoC, where ceasefire violations with use of higher calibre artillery is now the order of the day. This is because of desperation within Pak as it visualizes a peaceful valley as a sign of failure of its Kashmir policy.
Pakistan which has been claiming that there has been a communication blackout in the valley will be forced to change tack with the opening of social media sites. It sought to bring in friendly nations and organizations to accuse India of locking down the valley with communication restrictions. Every dignitary visiting Pak is told of crackdowns in the valley and gross human right violations.
This lie is now busted with the lifting of the last major restriction. Nations like Saudi Arabia which steadfastly refused to toe Pakistan’s line would now be easily able to justify their stand. Those which backed Pak have paid for their comments, others would now hesitate.
The two nations, India and Pakistan, have differing perceptions of Kashmir. While both seem to be obsessed with the portions presently under the control of the other, the manner they project their views is at a variance. For Pakistan, it is Kashmir which binds its population together, hence ranting on Kashmir is a means of diverting attention from economic failures of the state. It also enables their army to project itself as saviours of the nation from a powerful India and the only force which can regain Kashmir for them.
India’s politicians regularly mentioning retaking POK is to convey to Pak that it is willing to call Pak’s nuclear bluff and could contemplate conventional operations, if the need arose due to a major terrorist strike. Further, India’s recent actions of taking groups of envoys to the valley, interactions with residents and display of normalcy have moved Kashmir away from global attention.
A press conference held at the Press Club, Geneva, on the side lines of the 43rd session of United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) on 2nd March discussed the condition of Kashmir after abrogation of Article 370. Members of the European Parliament and others who participated accused Pakistan of attempting to portray a picture of crisis in Kashmir on international platforms, whereas the situation was the opposite.
While India employs its regular armed forces to counter Pak’s nefarious designs, Pakistan banks on state sponsored terrorist groups. This implies that it can abdicate state responsibility in case of a major terrorist strike, as it sought to do post Uri and Pulwama. Thus, Indian response had to be calibrated and kept below levels of war.
This was the risk when Indian responded to Pulwama and struck Balakote. It was with this background that the army chief stated in a seminar that apart from strengthening its conventional prowess, the nation is focusing on a dynamic response that is below the threshold of an all-out war.
Such a response needs careful consideration. In both cases when India responded it targeted terrorist camps. It ensured there were no collateral civilian casualties. However, India lost credibility as it failed to achieve its ulterior intention of projecting its success and lowering the image of the Pak army, which remains behind the terrorists. The info war was won by Pak.
Conventional forces, despite all claims would remain the order of the day. Without conventional superiority, other means of handling Pak sponsored terrorism will be ineffective. What has blocked Pak from responding to Indian actions has been its conventional weakness, the gap increasing by the day.
While the Pak leadership has shifted focus to recent Delhi riots and projecting a religious face to them, it would, with passage of time return to Kashmir as it remains its national agenda. If the valley remains calm and there are limited instances of violence, Pak’s rambling would lose steam. Presently, China which heads the UN Security Council for the current month would also have no reason to consider raising Kashmir as a flashpoint to support Pak.
The decision of the FATF to keep Pak on the Grey List has placed some restrictions on Pak. However, it cannot let this drive its Kashmir policy.
Pakistan is aware that it is slowly losing the international propaganda battle on Kashmir. It cannot let this happen. It would be desperate to regain some ground and hence would need to reassess its strategy. Its reassessment cannot be delayed as a peaceful summer would change the trend for the future. It would impact local minds and make Pak’s fake social media propaganda ineffective. With infiltration controlled during the last few months security experts have been predicting lower level of terrorist activities in the coming months. This would move against the grain for Pakistan.
Hence, Pak would seek to enhance the tempo of violence in the valley. It, apart from concentrating on social media to impact minds of the youth would attempt to launch a major terrorist strike. Its plans for inducting Afghan war veterans from the Taliban appear to be on hold as peace in Afghanistan is still far on the horizon. It may be forced to bank on its own trained terrorists. Hence the level of pressure being maintained presently must continue unabated or even enhanced as the weather changes. India has the upper hand, which it cannot let go.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army