From globalization to isolationism CENJOWS 23 Mar 2020

From globalization to isolationism CENJOWS 23 Mar 2020

https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=248

From globalization to isolationism 23 Mar 2020

          The fast spreading Coronavirus has impacted the global community in a manner never witnessed before. Nations are struggling to cope with the speed of spread of the virus and its impact on the population. Casualties are mounting daily, leaving governments perplexed on how to control the crisis. Simultaneously national economies are facing setbacks. Quarantine, lockdowns and other strong measures, never witnessed before, have been forcefully implemented, but appear to have limited impact on the rapid spread of the virus.  

          Nations are adopting measures to boost public confidence, cater for loss in business, increasing unemployment while enhancing medical facilities. China, where it originated claims that it has contained the spread. The truth flowing from China can never be verified. Data analysis indicate that apart from hiding the time and place of origin, China hid its true casualties and even presently does not project its true internal picture. Doubts continue to persist on the origin of the virus in Wuhan.

          Globally, age old alliances are being strained as nations struggle with the impact of the virus which pushes public health facilities to the extreme and break national economies. Member nations of the European Union (EU) are sealing borders to prevent influx of those affected by the virus, breaking the very bond which held them together. They have banned export of essential medical equipment even within the Union, isolating affected nations from those seeking to contain the infection.  

The organization is unable to assist the worst affected resulting in nations fighting the virus singularly. Will the EU remain as a single entity beyond the pandemic is questionable.

          The G7 leaders video conferencing held last week resulted in naught, except vague promises of coordinating their responses to the pandemic. This comes at a time when distances have already emerged between them with the US banning all flights emanating from Europe and sealing borders with neighbours leading to distancing allies who have stood as one for over seven decades. They would repeat this futile exercise every month, with similar vague comments. The G20 is expected to hold its first video conference this week, with an almost similar result.   

Thus, it has resulted in almost every country battling the virus alone. Economically weaker nations as also those impacted by civil strife and proxy war will face the brunt of the virus as health care facilities remain rudimentary. Inputs from such regions would never be accurate.

The only silver lining in a selfish world has been the action taken by India to involve all SAARC nations in the battle to contain the spread of the virus. The video conference initiated by Modi involving all SAARC leaders (less Pakistan) and the creation of an emergency Coronavirus fund has brought the region together. India is presently supporting the region with supplies; how long would it be able to do so, as its own commitments rise, remains a mute question.

          When the Coronavirus originated in Wuhan, China was at the receiving end. It discovered that it was short of basic equipment essential to fight the rapidly expanding virus. There was global support for China as it was then battling alone to contain the virus. As the spread became global and the epicentre shifted from China to Europe the situation reversed. Europe and the US were struggling to cope with the expanding virus, leading to China becoming the provider of essentials, though at a cost. Chinese delegations now represent experts in advising nations in controlling the spread.

Delayed reporting and lockdowns in China led to the global spread of the virus. As per experts, over 5 million people travelled from China during the period of its initial detection to the lockdown imposed on 22^nd Jan in Wuhan. It first impacted those regions where Chinese investments in its One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative exist and its labour is involved. These became hotspots and include Northern Italy, Iran and Pakistan. How will the public in these nations view their relations with China? Will it break the Chinese OBOR, despite China now providing then support? As the virus comes under control reactions would emerge and Chinese global standing and international relations impacted.

          Iran has been the hardest hit by Coronavirus in West Asia. Its casualties are mounting daily, and the exodus of religious pilgrims and students has taken the virus into neighbouring countries including Pakistan and Afghanistan. Its health care systems have been severely hampered by US sanctions. Rather than lift some sanctions to enable the state to support its population, the US has added sanctions seeking to pressure the country into releasing US citizens in its captivity. A disaster is being exploited for political gains by the strong against the weak. This will only enhance the resolve and anger within the Iranian public, which could be damaging in the long term.

          The global battle to produce a vaccine for the virus is currently on. The nation which first develops the vaccine, apart from helping mankind, would gain financially. Accusations fly between the US and China on the naming of the virus and sharing of detailed data to enable scientific research. Both nations accuse the other of producing the virus in a laboratory as also employing it as a biological weapon and hence being better prepared for producing a vaccine.  

US and China have been at loggerheads in recent times on the South China Sea and on adverse trade imbalances leading to a trade war and near military confrontations. This has now expanded into a war for vaccines, solely for financial gains. Competition for power and domination rather than cooperation continues amidst a global calamity.

          The US-China trade war was leading to the closure or shifting of US companies’ production facilities in China to other countries in the region. China was facing an economic slowdown on account of the trade war. Presently the handling of the Coronavirus will determine the future of where the US production facilities will shift as trade pressure on China is unlikely to ease. The country which controls the spread of Coronavirus and still maintains a semblance of its earlier economy would gain.

          International travel has been globally banned as nations seek to curtail the inflow of the virus from affected regions. Even close allies have distanced themselves from each other. In an era of globalization and interconnectivity, nations are self-isolating, hence moving in reverse. In this approach to isolation it will be mankind which would suffer. No longer would immigrants be welcomed, and tourists looked at with suspicion for quite some time.

Those presently stuck between borders and refugee camps (Turkey-EU borders etc) would remain in No-man’s land, unwelcome anywhere. There would be no value to human life in conflict zones and refugee camps as global attention is diverted to individual national survival. Globalization has receded for a long time and isolationism is the order of the day.

          In all earlier crisis which faced the globe, including world wars and financial crisis, there was always a nation which emerged to lead. For the first time, nations are alone with no leader emerging. China, which was the originator of the crisis and presently claims to have brought it under control is moving fast to fill the vacant space as it rushes to supply the world with essentials and advice, while the US, which traditionally led, struggles to control the internal spread of the virus.

          The virus which has engulfed humanity and should have been a uniting factor for nations to fight together is now acting in the reverse, leading nations to self-isolate. Alliances which stood strong through multiple crisis over decades are now on the verge of collapse. Allies and partners can no longer be trusted for support. Even at this moment of extreme crises, international powerplay, flow of accusations and application of financial and political pressure continues.  

Which nation would emerge as the global leader by the time the virus is contained remains to be seen? Would multipolarity become the order of the day? Would China’s international clout reduce and its global standing lowered? Would its OBOR be impacted as global hotspots of the virus were places where China had its investments and employed Chinese labour?

This one crisis has impacted the globe as none other. For India, it is essential that it comes through with the minimum of turbulence and plans for economic resuscitation beyond the pandemic.