India’s security concerns would continue to rise CENJOWS 01 May 2020

India’s security concerns would continue to rise CENJOWS 01 May 2020

https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=272

India’s security concerns would continue to rise CENJOWS 01 May 2020

          Currently, almost all nations remain deeply involved in containing the spread of the Coronavirus. The economic toll of the virus is likely to be staggering. As per estimates of the IMF, the global economy could lose upto USD 10 Trillion. Most nations would be in recession, with possibly a few, including India and China, registering marginal growth rates. In addition, nations would need to continue spending on health care as a re-emergence of the virus remains in doubt and existing healthcare systems have been severely impacted.

          The Coronavirus has also impacted global military deployment. Of the two US aircraft carriers which could operate in the Indo-Pacific, USS Theodore Roosevelt is currently in Guam battling increased Coronavirus cases and USS Ronald Regan is under maintenance at Yokosuka Naval Base. While this has resulted in a reduced US presence in the crucial South China Sea, however increasing Chinese actions indicate that China has moved beyond just bullying its neighbours and securing its claim lines but is openly challenging international coalitions.

From mid-March China began a series of air and land exercises close to Taiwan, forcing Taiwan to activate its aircraft against a possible Chinese threat. In mid-Apr, the Chinese aircraft carrier and five escort vessels sailed past Taiwan waters. These incidents added to concerns within Taiwan with its vice-defence minister stating, ‘if the Chinese Communists attempted to make any military adventure leading to regional conflict, they would be condemned by the world, and regardless of what would happen, we are all ready and have made the best preparation for this.’  

In late March, a Chinese fishing boat collided with a Japanese destroyer in the East China Sea. The destroyer was damaged while one fisherman was injured. China blamed Japan for the incident. It is likely that the fishing boat was part of the Chinese ‘maritime militia’ which is often used for such tasks. Chinese naval vessels have also been sailing near the Japanese controlled Senkaku islands, leading to protests being lodged.

On 2^nd April, Chinese Coastguard ship rammed and sank a Vietnamese fishing boat off the Paracel islands in the South China Sea. It subsequently rescued and released the sailors, leading to protests by Vietnam and Philippines. This was globally criticised. In another incident last week, a Chinese research ship, was spotted conducting a survey close to an exploration vessel operated by Malaysia’s state oil company Petronas, leading to a standoff. These actions led to the US rushing three warships and Australia one into the region, all of which are currently located close to the standoff site.

The Chinese government unilaterally approved the establishment of two districts, Xisha and Nansha, terming them as subdivisions of the city of Sansha on Hainan Island. Xisha will govern the Paracels and surrounding waters, while Nansha will cover the Spratly Islands and adjacent waters, all disputed regions. It has also renamed the islands to strengthen its claims. This has been objected to but for China, such objections carry little weight.

A recent updated map, issued by China’s Sky Maps, under Beijing’s National Surveying and Mapping Geographic Information Bureau, included parts of Arunachal Pradesh as part of Tibet. Its timing indicates Chinese offensive intent.

Evidently, China is exploiting the pandemic to enhance its Grey Zone warfare in the region. It is testing global reactions, keeping its activities just below conflict levels. While its actions are not new, its intensity has witnessed an increase in recent times. There are possibly multi-fold reasons behind China’s actions.

Firstly, it is to indicate to the global community that China has recovered from the pandemic and is currently back to its normal activities including establishing its sovereignty in a region it considers as its own. It is also projecting that the PLA has been untouched by the virus. Its naval actions would soon move away from the South China Sea into the Indian Ocean, challenging the Indian navy.

The second is to enhance a feeling of nationalism within its population, which is currently facing increased unemployment and financial hardship, due to no demands for Chinese goods, less medical. Thirdly, it is to enhance the flagging reputation of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which faced criticism on its handling of the virus in Wuhan. Finally, China is seeking to convey a message to nations in the region, closely allied to the US that it is the power in Asia, currently and in the future, not the US.

The fact that some of these incidents occurred shortly after the video conference of the QUAD Plus initiative on handling the Coronavirus appear to project China’s intent on challenging the grouping. The QUAD plus, which include US, Japan, Australia and India alongside Vietnam, South Korea and New Zealand, may, as a result, become more than just a forum as at present. Thus, India would face increased Chinese pressure. Possibly the release of the new map is the first step in this direction.

Chinese attempts to exploit weakened conditions of global markets and take over companies surreptitiously by employing its business community supported by state backed banks has been observed. India, Australia and some EU nations have passed laws to prevent hostile takeovers. Chinese protests have been ignored. India has stated it is willing to answer China in the WTO in case China approaches them.

China is aware that international supply chains would no longer be based there. With Japan leading the way, other nations would follow suit. This will severely impinge on the Chinese economy and it would seek to block such movement. One option for China will be to pressure smaller countries from opening their doors to moving production units. India is likely to be a favoured destination. Hence, it may come under increased military pressures.

Pakistan’s terror factories, increased attempts at infiltration and continued ceasefire violations cannot happen without broad concurrence from China. There are intelligence inputs of Pakistan seeking to push Coronavirus infected terrorists into Kashmir to further spread the virus into the region. The army chief stated in an interview last week, post his visit to the valley, ‘Reports of further attempts all along the LoC continue unabated and so does the activity level in the launch pads. There is no evidence to suggest that Covid-19 has had any negative effect on Pakistan’s complicity and nefarious designs.’

Intelligence reports, over the weekend, state that 450 terrorists from Pakistan’s terror factories are currently located in 14 launch pads opposite J and K. These include 244 from the LeT, 129 from the JeM and 60 from the HM. 

Reports from Afghanistan state that the arrest of a Pakistani national Muneeb, a member of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) had led to inputs of close coordination between multiple groups operating in the region. A JeM terrorist arrested in Afghanistan, earlier this month, revealed Pakistan’s plan to launch attacks in Kashmir as well as on Indian assets in Afghanistan.   

Chinese offensive actions at this juncture will add to building strong anti-China coalitions as also lowering its existing image globally. On the other hand, Pakistan’s actions impinge India and Afghanistan. Against India, its actions are more open, while in Afghanistan they remain partially shrouded as it seeks to convince the US of its intentions of supporting peace talks. Its brazen acts against India would be with Chinese backing.  

Thus, as the virus recedes and the nation begins activating its economy, national security challenges would increase. Chinese attempts to exploit any chink in India’s military armour would witness an upswing. Pakistan, aware that it is losing control in Kashmir would attempt to up the ante.

It is time for national security planners to look beyond the Coronavirus period and plan for countering possibly greater threats in the days ahead. The forces would need to be prepared for increased challenges. They need to wargame their options and be ready for emerging threats.