US deployment in the South China Sea changes the Indo-China equation CENJOWS 22 Jul 2020
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US deployment in the South China Sea changes the Indo-China equation 22 Jul 2020
China, despite all its theatrics, considers the US as an outright bully, which it currently cannot match upto. It has attempted to separate the bully from others in the neighbourhood, knowing jointly they could challenge Chinese might. It presumed it could break Indo-US strategic partnership by coercive actions in Ladakh, proving that US support, in case of Indo-China tensions on land frontiers, is non-existent. Simultaneously, it attempted to suppress nations with whom it had differences over the 9 Dash line.
Chinese actions were protested by those it sought to bully. For the first time, ASEAN nations issued a joint statement against China. Japan enhanced deployment of air power. Taiwan conducted large scale military exercises and has placed its armed forces on alert. Nations did so aware they possess the backing of the US. There was added discomfort to China when the US approved large arms sales to China and Taiwan.
China expected only token reaction from the US, considering the spreading pandemic and forthcoming US elections, as it went about challenging those who questioned its territorial demands. The US reaction surprised China. It moved two carrier groups into the South China Sea on the pretext of denying Chinese claims over the region and backing other nations in their intent to challenge China. The carrier groups blocked freedom of navigation for the Chinese navy seeking to secure disputed territories.
A statement released by the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo of 13 Jul read, ‘We are making clear: Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them,’ adding, ‘America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law.’ There was no mention of India or Taiwan in the statement.
An editorial of the same day in The Global Times states, ‘Despite being a non-claimant of the South China Sea, the US desires to stir up troubles. It takes advantage of regional countries’ claims to sow discord between these countries and China.’ China had no answer to US actions.
Since the commencement of the Ladakh incident, Chinese mouthpieces had been warning India against moving closer to the US. An editorial in The Global Times of 09 Jul stated, ‘The US’ seemingly unequivocal support to India on the China-India border issue only serves US interests, and India is just seen by the US as a bullet in its containment policy toward China.’ It added, ‘for the US, befriending India serves to pressure and contain China rather than offer help to India’s geopolitical security.’ It had earlier stated, ‘India should not fall into the trap of Western public opinion or serve as a cannon fodder for the West at the cost of its own interests.’ This was a gamble which China attempted, but backfired.
Many in India too voiced doubts on the possibility of US support, considering approaching US Presidential elections and Chinese pressure on land frontiers. India had officially communicated to the US that it could handle the Chinese intrusion in Ladakh by itself and it needed no support within its borders. Simultaneously, there was a need to enhance pressure on China preventing it from expanding the conflict.
The move of the two carrier groups into the South China Sea was also linked to the current Indo-China standoff in Ladakh. China was suddenly facing two active fronts, Ladakh and the South China Sea. In Ladakh, Indian forces refused to back down. In Galwan, the ferocity and determination of the Indian soldier conveyed to the Chinese that India will not accept any change in the alignment of the LAC. Despite being prepared for high degree of violence, it was China which ended up with maximum casualties. The visit and addresses by PM Modi and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to Ladakh conveyed Indian determination and willingness to escalate, if essential.
Strong counter deployment with matching force levels prevented any new surprises which China could throw in the region. Blocked from moving forward, without further escalating the situation, China had limited options. It could either chose talks, escalate or continue to attempt to coerce.
The arrival of these two US carrier groups in the South China Sea, blocked free movement of Chinese naval resources. Despite all bragging in its propaganda times (Global Times) of possessing nuclear anti-Ship missiles, China was aware that it has no response to US bullying in the South China Sea. Its naval power is currently no match.
Chinese naval vessels in proximity to the South China Sea have re-entered home ports, aware that in case hostilities commence, they would be sitting ducks. With the Chinese navy locked in, its shipping is open to interdiction by the Indian navy in the Indian Ocean in case it escalates the conflict. China’s naval presence, if any, in the Indian Ocean region cannot, in such a scenario, depend on its bases on the mainland for support.
To display its ability to dominate the Indian Ocean region, especially the Malacca Straits, the Indian navy is conducting large scale exercises around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. This exercise, simultaneous to US carrier group actions in the South China Sea, sends the message that the US and Indian navies are acting in cohesion to thwart any Chinese attempts at escalation.
The curbing of the Chinese navy also put paid to any attempts of a Pak-China collusion. With no Chinese ships moving out of the South China sea region, Pak’s coastline and naval power would be at the mercy of Indian naval might. Pakistan cannot afford to suffer similar damages as it witnessed in 1971 in Karachi. If its naval assets were to be secured, then Pak needed Chinese naval resources in the Arabian Sea. There are even reports that construction of the third Chinese aircraft carrier is now being done in a secure location under secrecy, fearing a US strike in case of any escalation.
The US has for a long time been seeking to militarize the QUAD, which India has avoided, mainly to maintain ties with China. India therefore kept Australia out of the exercises. That is now history. This year, it is likely that India will invite Australia to join and may even contemplate militarizing the QUAD, as current US actions proved that pressurizing China in the South China Sea can relieve pressure on land.
The Global Times stated in an editorial on 11 Jul, ‘If Australia is included in the next Malabar drill, it will be the first time that all members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), an informal strategic forum between the US, Japan, Australia and India, coordinate at a military level. It meets the strategic requirements of the US’ Indo-Pacific Strategy, and interests of the other three members of the group.’ It is the untrustworthiness of China which has resulted in it being pressured from two directions. The fact that India sits in an advantageous position in the Indian Ocean is not missed by China.
The Chinese gamble in Ladakh appears to be backfiring as pressure mounts from multiple directions. The threat which China sought to impose on India has backfired. The US carrier groups deployed in the Chinese backyard has placed them under pressure making them aware that escalation is not an option. Possibly the carrier groups will remain in vicinity of the South China Sea till the border crisis is resolved. Without officially broadcasting, the US has applied requisite pressure on China. The boot is now on the Chinese foot.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army