The changing Middle East dynamics CENJOWS 03 Sept 2020
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The changing Middle East dynamics 03 Sept 2020
The recent signing of a peace agreement between the UAE and Israel is possibly the first stage of resetting regional dynamics in the Middle East. The announcement of the UAE-Israel deal was made by Trump, who had brokered it. He has also stated that the signing would be done in his presence, expecting this to boost his chances for regaining the White House.
It is expected that few other Arab states may follow suit. Reports of discussions between Israel, Sudan and Oman on a similar deal as the UAE are making rounds. In Oct 2018, Netanyahu had visited Oman. Unofficial reports state that Netanyahu had made two secret visits to the UAE in the past two years. The sweetener in the deal is that Israel will not annex territories in the West Bank, as it was proposing to do. Whether this halt is temporary or permanent is unknown. Israel’s objections to sale of US’s sophisticated weaponry including F 35’s to UAE and Saudi Arabia could drop, enabling the countries to enhance combat capabilities against Iran.
There is no doubt that the UAE would have consulted its close ally, Saudi Arabia, prior to signing the deal. The House of Saud, which on account of its position as the leader of the OIC, is unlikely to immediately follow suit, though it stated that it was not averse to a similar agreement provided a peace deal is reached between Israel and Palestine. The Saudi’s changed stance against Israel was evident when it permitted Indian flights to Israel to overfly the country.
Threats to the UAE and Saudi Arabia are common and a close relationship with Israel would benefit both. Both face internal threats from radical elements, mainly the Muslim brotherhood, backed by Turkey and Qatar. Saudi and UAE are fighting Turkey backed rebels in Libya. UAE, Saudi and Israel are sworn enemies of Iran and joining hands would strengthen their ability to challenge Iran and its proxies, Hamas and the Houthi’s. Houthi rebels have been targeting Saudis in recent times and Israel has challenged Hamas in Gaza.
The first visitor to the UAE from Israel was the MOSSAD chief, evidently, sharing intelligence would be a key factor in the deal. UAE and Israel would jointly enhance pressure on the US, despite whichever government comes to power post elections in November, not to dilute existing sanctions on Iran.
Arab nations, including Oman, Bahrain, Egypt and Jordan, apart from major global powers and India, have welcomed the deal while there has been a negative response from Turkey, Syria and Iran. Egypt and Jordan already have ties with Israel. Egypt faces threats from Turkey backed mercenaries and jihadists in Libya. Turkey has considered withdrawing its Ambassador from the UAE.
The UAE has hit back claiming Turkey-Israel bilateral trade is worth USD 2 Billion annually and 5 lakh Israeli tourists visit Turkey each year. Iran, a sworn enemy of Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE reacted strongly. The other two nations in the caucus are Malaysia and Pakistan. Malaysia has made no comments, while Pakistan’s statements were guarded.
Turkey has been attempting to create an alternate grouping to the OIC and sees this as an opportunity. Its growing proximity to Pakistan is only to pull it away from Saudi Arabia. Despite Pak’s poor economy and overt dependence on China, it remains the only nuclear power within the current OIC. Turkey-Israel relations have been on and off throughout their history. Currently, they are in an off state, though Turkey retains an embassy in Tel Aviv. It is possible that China would be backing this alternate group to the OIC to reduce US influence in the Middle East.
Pakistan has for decades been projecting a pro-Palestinian approach, mainly to suit its domestic audience. Hence, it cannot change overnight. Further, it recently angered Saudi Arabia by illogical comments by SM Qureshi and faced immediate backlash. It cannot repeat the same against its other benefactor UAE, hence had to issue guarded and ‘vague’ statements.
The Pakistan foreign office statement mentioned that the deal will have ‘far-reaching implications,’ though it reiterated that Pakistan’s approach will be guided by how the ‘Palestinians’ rights and aspirations are upheld’. Pakistan has its own fears. As per an editorial in the Dawn of 16 August, ‘if Israel is embraced by the Muslim world without a just resolution to the Palestine question, the Kashmir cause will also suffer.’
This is hurting Pak the maximum. China has never been accused of its maltreatment of Uighurs, mainly for economic reasons. Israel and Palestine would no longer be on the OIC charter. As a corollary, Kashmir too would be off. Pushing Kashmir alone, as Qureshi attempted this time, will never come through in the future till the OIC is controlled by Saudi’s and UAE. It is for this reason that Pak oscillates between Turkey and Saudis. Imran Khan stated recently, ‘we cannot ever accept Israel as long as Palestinians are not given their rights and there is no just settlement.’
The PLO came out strongly against the deal and withdrew its ambassador from the UAE. President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority stated, ‘The Palestinian leadership rejects and denounces the US’s surprising announcement.’ A major stumbling block can occur if the Palestinian Authority resigns. This would imply that Israel would be responsible for security of the region, which could add to pressures from Arab nations.
For Trump, this deal has been his only major success. After failing with North Korea, attempting to broker Indo-Pak talks, almost failing Afghan policies, this has come as a breath of fresh air. It would enhance pressure on sidelining of Iran.
India maintains strong ties with both, Israel and Palestine. While Muslim nations were doing lip service, India was displaying genuine support to the Palestinians. President Pranab Mukherjee visited Ramallah in 2015 while covering Jordan, Israel and Palestine. PM Modi made a standalone visit to Israel in 2017. Prior to his visit Palestinian President’s diplomatic adviser Majdi ElKhaldi stated, India’s relations with Israel should not come at the ‘expense of ties’ with Palestine, but the ‘Palestinian Authority (PA) understands the need for India to de-hyphenate ties with both.’
In Feb 2018, Modi visited Ramallah via Jordan, becoming the first Indian PM to visit Palestine. He flew in from Jordan, in a Jordanian helicopter, escorted by Israeli helicopters. He was awarded the highest Palestinian award, ‘Grand Collar of the State of Palestine.’ Heads of state of very few nations have visited Palestine in a display of support.
Palestinians realise and understand Indian support to their cause. In Dec 2017, when India reported the presence of the Palestinian Ambassador to Pakistan being on the stage with Hafiz Saeed, Palestine recalled him immediately.
India could gain in multiple ways by this agreement. India previously played a balancing game between Iran, Israel, Palestine and the Arab states, which would now become easier. India’s closest allies in the Middle East remain UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Acceptance of Israel by Middle East nations could enhance pressure on Pak and push Kashmir under the OIC table. Simultaneously, India needs to stay away and let the relationship grow at its own pace. Decades of distrust and hatred cannot be swept under the carpet in a day.
India’s major role could flow by exploiting its relations with the Palestinian Authority to push them to comprehend regional changes and take advantage of the situation for their benefit, rather than act as spoilsports. If it can convince the Palestinians, it would earn gratitude from all corners as also push Turkey, Pakistan and Iran into isolation. It should grab this opportunity with both hands.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army