India needs to be wary during talks (English version) Amar Ujala 07 Sep 2020
https://www.amarujala.com/columns/opinion/india-should-alert-with-china-double-standard?src=top-lead
(original publication)
The stalemate in Ladakh was moving in favour of the Chinese and hence there were proceeding slowly in discussions. Indian requests for dialogue were responded to by China at their own pace and most were inconclusive. The Chinese had presumed that the scenario was in their favour, India was on the defensive and with disengagement having taken place, a buffer zone created, chances of physical clash had almost ended. The fear of another Galwan, which broke the myth of the PLA, had receded for the Chinese. They were confident that they had achieved their aims and could push the alignment of the LAC to their advantage.
The Indian counterstroke at the end of August when it occupied a collection of vacant dominating features, in a surprise, planned and coordinated action, shook the Chinese from their slumber. In one stroke, India changed the scenario into its favour. The Chinese realised that they had been beaten and any move on their side was under Indian observation and domination. The employment of the Special Frontier Force (Vikas Battalion) comprising of Tibetan Refugee wards was another masterstroke. It conveyed that India has discarded its one China policy.
The Chinese reacted by claiming that India had violated the LAC, which they had themselves refused to accept till a day prior and demanded Indian withdrawal. To add insult to injury, India banned another collection of Chinese apps, impacting its software industry. Suddenly there were demands for talks from China at every level. The Brigade Commanders met continuously for almost a week with no result, as it was India now which refused to accede to Chinese demands. Chinese CCP mouthpieces continued with propaganda warfare seeking to impact the Indian mindset.
China also put forth a request for a meeting between the two defence ministers, who happened to be in Moscow for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting. This request (third from China) was made after Indian pre-emptive actions of occupying dominating heights. Evidently, China was seeking a solution. Both sides issued statements accusing the other of violating the LAC.
The Chinese foreign ministry in its press release, post the meeting, stated, ‘the truth and cause of the current tension on the border between India and China are clear, and the responsibility lies entirely with India. China’s territory cannot be lost, and the Chinese military is fully determined, capable and confident to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.’
On the contrary, the Indian statement read, ‘The actions of Chinese troops, including amassing large numbers, their aggressive behaviour and attempts to unilaterally alter the status quo were in violation of bilateral agreements. Indian troops had always taken a very responsible approach towards border management but there should be no doubt about our determination to protect India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.’
The meeting between the defence ministers was inconclusive, as expected. Both sides accused the other of being responsible. The discussion, which lasted over two hours only set the stage for the next level of talks, which would be between the two foreign ministers, scheduled for 10th Sep, in Moscow. Wang Yi, the Chinese external affairs minister and Jaishankar know each other well. They together resolved the Doklam crisis as Jaishankar was the Indian ambassador to Beijing at that time.
Both nations have differing views on the resolution of the crisis. India seeks restoration of status quo ante of Apr 2020 and withdrawal of additional troops from the region, while China desires India accept its perception of the LAC and pull back from features it recently occupied. Currently there is also an immense trust deficit between the two nations due to Chinese behaviour. Simultaneously is the issue of prestige for the PLA.
If the Chinese accept the Indian proposal and withdraw to their positions held in Apr 2020 then it would project a loss of face and impact the global standing of the PLA. If the situation continues as at present, then its positions, movement and activities are under Indian observation and domination. Its main camp at Moldo can be targeted at will. The campaigning season continues till mid Nov and any military action of launching a limited offensive to dislodge Indian forces, would lead to immense loss of Chinese lives as India is on dominating ground. Indian forces remain prepared for Chinese misadventures as also are building infrastructure to remain in situ through the harsh winters.
India has lost trust on Chinese adhering to accepted agreements. It refused to honour protocols agreed in Lt General talks. India also doubts Chinese intentions and is uncertain whether the Chinese would rush in to grab heights, which India currently occupies, once it vacates them. The Chinese did so in Jelep La in Sikkim in 1965 and continues to build infrastructure in its own territory in Doklam. Such an action would add to Indian problems. Further, it was the Chinese which violated the LAC and could do so again.
Indian armed forces have experienced loss of advantage of military victories in diplomatic negotiations. In 1965, India returned the Haji Pir Pass which it captured and in 1971 the advantage of resolving Kashmir was again lost despite India holding 93,000 prisoners. Hence, negotiations would be difficult and a resolution acceptable to the Indian armed forces, currently in an advantageous position, difficult to reach.
The best possible solution could be deciding the LAC alignment in Ladakh, which may be unacceptable to the Chinese, as it would prevent them from attempting any further adventures in the region and would result in their intrusions being of no value. The next solution would be maintaining status quo till a border resolution is reached. In such a scenario, both forces would maintain distance from one another in regions they currently control. This would impact both nations as high force levels would need to be maintained for prolonged periods in Ladakh. It could again be unacceptable to China as their posts remain dominated and under 24 X 7 observation.
How would the final chapter of the current crisis play out would depend on how the two foreign ministers discuss and reach an amicable solution. However, Indian diplomats must be careful to not let the Indian military advantage be lost in a desire to seek a quick resolution.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army