US withdrawal from Afghanistan CENJOWS 23 Nov 2020
US withdrawal from Afghanistan CENJOWS 23 Nov 2020
Donald Trump recently announced withdrawing additional troops from Afghanistan, leaving 2500 soldiers, by 15 Jan 2021, against the advice of his military brass. This withdrawal would be completed just five days before Biden takes office. He is seeking to fulfil his electoral promise of bringing soldiers back before the end of his tenure. This decision, while talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government remain in limbo, have led to the Taliban delaying even agreeing to a ceasefire. Simultaneously levels of violence have risen within the country.
Pakistan has assumed a special role for itself in the country as was evident by the visit of Imran Khan to Afghanistan last week. During the visit, Imran stated, ‘My idea of choosing this time to come was to assure you that Pakistan will do everything, whatever is possible to help reduce this violence and move toward ceasefire.’ Pakistan is taking credit for pushing the Taliban for talks but hesitates to push for a positive forward movement in the intra-Afghan discussions.
Ghani, who had always accused Pakistan of being behind violence in the country, attempted to restore the relationship when he stated that the intention of the visit was, ‘take a leap of faith to overcome the distrust that has haunted our relationship.’ A few days ago, Pakistan had accused Afghanistan of joining hands with India to support terrorist groups operating against Pakistan from their soil, an action Afghanistan denied vehemently.
India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador TS Tirumurti, while addressing the Arria-Formula Meeting, stated, ‘for durable peace in Afghanistan, we have to put an end to terrorist safe havens and sanctuaries operating across the Durand Line.’ He added, ‘It is important to ensure that no one provides sanctuary to terrorists who threaten Afghanistan or any other country in the region. Those who do so must be held accountable.’ The target of his address was Pakistan.
US directions for withdrawal come at a time when violence levels are on the rise. As per the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction quarterly report, ‘average daily enemy-initiated attacks this quarter were 50% higher compared to last quarter.’ The military advice was that further reduction should be considered only once the peace deal has been signed, which is currently nowhere on the horizon.
Even within the US, the withdrawal is being compared to retreat from Saigon. Senator McConnel stated that the current action would be as ‘humiliating’ as it was for US troops to withdraw from Saigon in the 1970s. The fear within the US strategic circle is that such a withdrawal would lead to the rise of the ISIS and a new wave of global terrorist attacks. Jack Reed, a senator added, ‘President Trump is venting his frustration over losing the election in a manner that is more costly, jeopardizes our military personnel, aids the Taliban and terrorist networks, and emboldens those who want greater conflict with Iran.’
Trump’s actions would leave little choice for Biden as troops would be back. Reversing the decision once implemented would be difficult. Though Biden had earlier not recommended a surge in troops, he had never demanded their withdrawal. Biden had stated that though he is weary of the war but there is a need, ‘to end the war responsibly, in a manner that ensures we both guard against threats to our homeland and never have to go back.’
The US agreement with the Taliban was withdrawal of all troops by May 2021 provided the Taliban met laid down conditions. None of the terms of agreement have yet been met. Reports of the Taliban continuing its close proximity to the Al Qaeda continue flowing.
The loser in this process would be the Afghan government, already weak on the negotiating table. The Taliban, aware of US desperation to pull out, is slowing talks. This was also evident in the US, when Senator Michael McCaul, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee stated, ‘A premature US withdrawal would not only jeopardize the Afghan government’s ability to negotiate, but would endanger US counterterrorism interest.’
Since talks began violence levels have increased, rather than recede. Khalilzad, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan, has also realized the intent of the Taliban. He stated in October, ‘I return to the region disappointed that despite commitments to lower violence, it has not happened. The window to achieve a political settlement will not stay open forever.’
Afghanistan is termed as the graveyard of empires. Its tribal affinities and distrust between tribes has ensured it remains a group of nations rather than a homogeneous nation state. With the US pulling out, the Ghani government would lose control of large tracts of the state resulting in tribal warlords sharing space with the Taliban and the ISIS.
There is no doubt that the Afghan army would not be able to stem the Taliban advance alone, while engaging with tribal war lords declaring their own spheres of influence and states. Hence, there is a perception that a Syria type civil war would follow, drawing in nations in the region and adding to regional uncertainty. The gains the state had achieved in the past few years would be lost. Narcoterrorism, most of which is controlled by the Pak ISI, would become a global problem.
India has always supported Afghan led and Afghan owned talks. In addition, India has heavily invested in the development of Afghanistan. TS Tirumurti stated India has committed over USD 3 billion towards development, reconstruction and capacity building in Afghanistan. He added, ‘Major projects such as the Afghanistan-India Friendship Dam in Herat, the Afghan National Parliament building in Kabul and the electricity supply grid between Kabul and northern Afghanistan stand testimony to the special place that Afghanistan occupies in our priorities.’
India has rightly engaged all major tribes in the country. Support from multiple tribes would secure Indian interests and keep Pakistan’s intentions to place the Taliban at the helm at bay. Since the commencement of peace talks, India has also been engaging with the Taliban, though contact remains limited. This engagement is to offset Pakistan plans to push Taliban fighters into Kashmir to boost the flailing terrorism.
Iran is equally concerned that a Taliban takeover would impact the Shia Hazara population in Afghanistan as also be a threat to Iran. India and Iran affected in case of the Taliban unleashing violence and seeking to take over Kabul by force have begun working jointly towards the future of Afghanistan. Since the alternate access to the country is through Iran, this could enable them to exert influence on any future Afghan government.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army