Diplomatic pressure and coercion The Excelsior 17 Dec 2020

Diplomatic pressure and coercion The Excelsior 17 Dec 2020

https://www.dailyexcelsior.com/diplomatic-pressure-and-coercion/

Diplomatic pressure and coercion 17 Dec 2020

          Every nation seeks to exert pressure on their competitors or adversaries with the intention of changing behaviour or attitude. Diplomatic pressure is effective if backed by military and/ or economic pressure. Impact of success on diplomatic coercion is also dependent on a nations soft power and adherence to global norms. China continuously exerts such pressure on those with whom it is in dispute.  

It is currently seeking to pressurize ASEAN nations to sign an agreement on the code of conduct over the South China Sea (SCS) incorporating clauses which secures its control over the region. It is similarly applying diplomatic and economic pressure on Australia, seeking to push them to reverse their criticism of China. It has grabbed lands of smaller neighbours, Bhutan and Nepal, and compelled their governments into denying the same, by displaying coercion.

          Chinese diplomatic and economic power was immense till the commencement of the pandemic, its subsequent offensive manoeuvres in the SCS and against Taiwan. Chinese standing suffered further blows when it passed laws against global norms on Hong Kong and intruded into Ladakh. This led to the West commencing to challenge China. With the US and European nations moving their fleets into the Indo-Pacific, pushing China onto the defensive, its power has begun to wane.

          The recent Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) resolution on Kashmir and the release of a fake dossier on Indian involvement in supporting terrorism are attempts by Pakistan to apply diplomatic pressure on India as also defend its backing to terrorist activities in Kashmir as a retaliatory measure. China has been applying pressure on India ever since India moved closer to the US and enhanced its involvement in the QUAD. It had attempted to enhance its coercion by its intrusions in Ladakh, expecting India to move forward on talks under conditions favourable to Beijing.

Against Pakistan, India exploited the opportunity provided by the successful encounter of infiltrated terrorists at Nagrota. It briefed a collection of diplomats on Pakistan’s direct involvement in terrorism in Kashmir with proof obtained from the eliminated terrorists. India has, over the years, maintained diplomatic pressure in the FATF ensuring Pakistan does not get sufficient votes to be removed from the Blacklist. Its developing relations with erstwhile Pak allies in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and UAE, led to diplomatic and economic pressure on Pakistan to change its policies towards Kashmir.

Indian counteractions in Ladakh, wherein it occupied dominating heights on the Kailash Ridge and on the North bank of the Pangong Tso relieved Chinese pressures on it. Its economic countermeasures worked to reverse pressures onto China. Simultaneously, India’s growing proximity to Europe and the US led to their distancing from China. India has thus far, not crossed Chinese red lines, as it seeks an end to the standoff through dialogue. Globally support to India as it battles Chinese intrusion is strong.

South Asian nations are constantly under Indian and Chinese powerplays. Post the intrusion they were leaning towards China, considering India as the weaker nation. Indian offensive actions and determination to challenge Chinese intrusion changed the scenario. The recent trilateral meeting of NSAs of India, Sri Lanka and Maldives, with observers from Seychelles and Mauritius display the re-emergence of Indian power in the region. Nepal has displayed a desire to set aside differences as recent visits of the Indian army chief and foreign secretary as also the proposed visit by their foreign secretary to India this month indicate. It was a turn-around from the earlier Nepalese stance.

The Chinese defence minister, Wei Fenghe, during his 10-hour visit to Nepal, could have delegation level discussions with the Nepalese army chief and not his counterpart, who is currently the Prime Minister. Even a luncheon in his honour, by the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu, was cancelled as Nepalese ministers displayed unwillingness to attend. For China this was a diplomatic failure as the Nepalese army chief is well below in protocol. Simultaneously, his next visit to Bangladesh had to be cancelled. No reasons were given for the same.

Pakistan evidently lacks diplomatic clout. Hence, all its attempts to convince the global community on its positive actions in combatting terrorism have come to naught. Similar has been the impact on the fake dossier which Pakistan created and sought to spread globally. There have been no takers thus leading to it being ignored.

The OIC resolution on Kashmir was nowhere near what Pakistan wanted. Pakistan’s foreign minister, SM Qureshi, stated post the OIC meeting that the resolution covered Indian abrogation of Article 370 and the issue of domicile certificate. The reality was vastly different when the official declaration was released on the OIC website. In a watered-down version it only mentioned, ‘peaceful settlement in accordance with the relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions.’ This has been the standard comment by the OIC. Qureshi, by his lies, only sought to influence his domestic audience, where his government is facing heat on account of failure of its Kashmir policy.

Select actions by the OIC in ignoring Xinjiang, where Uighurs are incarcerated in millions by the Chinese, Yemen, Syria and Libya, where proxies of mainly OIC members are battling one another leading to humanitarian tragedies, while commenting on Kashmir and Palestine has led to it being ignored as an influential global body.

On the contrary, Indian attempts to enforce diplomatic pressure on Pakistan by displaying proof of its involvement based on the recent encounter in Nagrota, had the desired impact. The heat on Pakistan was immediate. It knew that in case of any major terrorist strike in the valley there would be no way that it could skirt responsibility. The message also sent through diplomatic channels was that India would not hesitate to employ military power in case Pakistan attempted to disrupt the ongoing District Development Council (DDC) elections in the valley. The elections are still in progress, though it is hoped that Pakistan has understood the reality.

With the swearing in of the new US administration, it is possible that India would face diplomatic coercion on Kashmir and few other policies of the government. Such pressures would need to be offset by astute diplomacy in case Indo-US relations needs to be nurtured.

  Diplomatic pressure as a tool for enforcing change in thought process is gaining strength. Its effectiveness is dependent on the nation being pressured and the one which applies it. When compared in the immediate neighbourhood, Indian diplomatic power is on the rise, while that of Pakistan has diminished. Chinese power is temporarily on the wane, however, would not be for long, providing India with an opportunity which it must not miss.