Is a thaw possible between India and China The Excelsior 20 Sept 2024
The India-China standoff at two places in Ladakh is now in its fifth year. India is unwilling to bend, refusing to accept Chinese suggestions of sidelining the incursion while enhancing ties. Multiple calls by the Chinese foreign minister requesting Delhi to keep the standoff ‘at its own place’ and move forward on restoring ties have been rebuffed. Troops remain deployed on both sides with India moving feverishly to enhance its infrastructure to reduce the gap with China.
Military and WMCC (Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs) talks on resolving the balance two standoffs had thus far not yielded any results. The holding of two quick rounds of WMCC meetings, in New Delhi and Beijing, on 31st July and 29th Aug gave a perception of change in Chinese mindset.
For the first time the words ‘narrow down the differences and find early resolution of the outstanding issues,’ were used in the joint statement, implying a draw down and a possible solution on the cards. It appears China is sending the message that one of the two could be resolved.
Simultaneously, New Delhi signalled a pullback on its anti-China investment policies. After refusing Chinese investments for years, India is now reassessing its options, mainly in non-security domains. It is also considering easing visa restrictions for Chinese technicians. Jaishankar, speaking at a conference in Berlin last week mentioned, ‘We are not closed to business from China…I think the issue is, which sectors do you do business and what terms do you do business.’
Earlier, addressing the Young Leaders Forum on 31st Aug, Jaishankar had commented, ‘There is a general China problem. We are not the only country in the world which is having a debate about China.’ The message conveyed was that China was a threat to world peace. This was further amplified when he mentioned, ‘Decades ago the world decided to overlook problems in China. Now everyone has a problem.’
The Chinese responded. Its mouthpiece, The Global Times, published an article on 09 Sept titled, ‘India’s diplomacy has a S Jaishankar problem.’ It mentioned the reason for Jaishankar’s comment was, ‘he is concerned about pleasing the US, aware that the current US strategic focus is on China, and that improving China-India relations could displease Washington.’ Subsequently the article was deleted.
Either the Global Times had acted without sanction or publishing and deleting was part of a plan of conveying that it is Jaishankar who is stalling normalization of Indo-Chinese ties. Ultimately it conveyed that China to seeks to move forward while resolving pending standoffs.
The Indian NSA (National Security Advisor), Ajit Doval, visited Russia for the BRICS NSA meeting. He met Wang YI, the Chinese foreign minister. The Indian statement read, ‘Both sides agreed to work with urgency and redouble their efforts to realize complete disengagement in the remaining areas. The two sides agreed that the India-China bilateral relationship is significant not just for the two countries but also for the region and the world.’
While not much has been revealed in the press, it is likely that discussions also hovered around a possible Modi-Xi Jinping meeting on the sidelines of BRICS summit in Kazan in Russia next month, which would be attended by both. Simultaneously, Jaishankar stated in Geneva that 75 per cent of ‘disengagement’ has taken place.
An Indo-China leader’s summit may not end the thaw or the trust deficit but could be a start. There is immense work to be done including discussions on reduction of troops, withdrawal and agreements on further patrolling which would flow from talks at the military and WMCC levels. Tensions have increased with the emergence of Chinese border villages. However, it could be a start.
An India-China reproachment would impact the globe in multiple ways. The Chinese are expanding their footprints in South Asia, while India is expanding its in SE Asia. The Chinese are arming Pakistan while India has begun providing weapons to the Philippines. The Chinese are forced to consider a two-front war in case they seek to invade Taiwan or challenge nations in conflict in the South China sea.
India is ignoring the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) solely because it is China dominated. While the PM would still not attend the forthcoming meet in Pakistan, the future could be different. Without the presence of India, the SCO is only another grouping of autocracies or members of the Chinese BRI, with little value.
Xi Jinping also faces a dilemma. His misadventure in Ladakh has resulted in naught. The attempt at Yangtze in Dec 2022 was a blunder. Pulling back in Ladakh would be difficult to justify as China has yet to accept its casualties of Galwan and clarify the reason for its misadventure. What better way than resolving one of the two standoffs leading to a leaders’ summit. It could be a face saving.
The Chinese economy is sinking. Western nations are imposing high duties on Chinese products. They are wary of Chinese investments. India is a nation which needs investments and technology. This could boost the Chinese economy. Higher the investments, lesser the chances of a major conflict.
The US and the west have been exploiting the India-China enmity to raise levels of joint exercises and the QUAD. India’s arms purchase to counter the Chinese threat would still continue. For China also the US is a major threat. Beijing is aware that with India on its side, the US has the upper hand. One way to reduce US threat is to draw India away from their clutches. This will not be easy as the trust deficit is high and India is firmly in the US camp.
Reduction in the Chinese threat would give India leverage in dealing with any games which the US could play in attempting to create internal fissures within the country or ignore its concerns on its neighbourhood, as it has done with Bangladesh.
A Modi-Xi summit would also benefit Russia. A Russia-China-India group could alter global dynamics, which the west would not desire. Thus, the US would have to consider India’s concerns if it wants New Delhi to remain in its camp. The summit, if held and successful, could change global and regional dynamics as also restore frayed ties.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army