Syria after Assad’s fall The Statesman 17 Dec 2024
Syria after Assad’s fall The Statesman 17 Dec 2024
Syrian rebel forces captured Damascus and forced President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Moscow with his family where he has been granted refuge. In just over a week, the Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS), translated into ‘Organization for the liberation of the Levant,’ backed by Turkey, captured the cities of Aleppo, Hama and Homs, prior to entering Damascus, overthrowing a ruler who had managed to survive the Arab Spring, by violently suppressing the agitation. This has thrown the entire region into a mess.
The HTS, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa alias Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, was formally associated with the ISIS and subsequently with al Qaeda. It is still considered a terrorist group by some western nations. Interestingly, over the years while Turkey, Israel and the US militarily engaged with different factions of Syrian groups including its armed forces, none ever targeted the HTS.
Hoping to gain global acceptance, al-Jolani mentioned that he intends to focus on organized governance in Syria. By appointing Mohamad al-Bashir, the administrator of the earlier rebel held territory, it conveyed its intent on governance. The HTS also reached out to Iraq and Lebanon seeking good ties and non-interference.
Iran and Russia had propped up the al-Assad regime in Syria. Russia, involved in Ukraine, while Iran, internally divided amongst those desiring to support Assad and those opposing, did not provide the requisite military power essential to enable breaking up the HTS offensive. Hezbollah, which had earlier sent its soldiers to support the Syrian armed forces backed down due to Israel’s relentless military offensive against it. The weakened and underpaid Syrian army collapsed rapidly, in many cases discarding their arms and ammunition before fleeing.
The end came quickly, bringing back memories of the collapse of the Saddam Hussain regime in Iraq battling the US as also Afghan forces fighting the Taliban advance. Nations in the region have begun recalibrating their strategies.
Israel, which is fighting Hamas and is presently in a ceasefire with Hezbollah has to now secure its Syrian border. The 1974 border agreement between Israel and Syria has ended compelling Netanyahu to occupy beyond the buffer zone between the two states, which is the Golan Heights. It is unlikely to vacate them in any near timeframe as the new Syrian government is militarily weak.
Currently, Israel is targeting Syria’s military power including aircraft, ships, storage deports and air defence systems, ensuring these do not fall into the hands of the incoming HTS. Further, it would open doors for Israel to strike Syria freely in case it attempts to push terrorists into Israel. Israel has to ensure that Syria is no longer capable of being a threat. By occupying the Golan Heights, Israel has ensured that Damascus remains within range of its artillery.
The HTS is a Sunni terrorist group, which fought against the Shia army of Bashar al-Assad, backed by Iran and Russia. Hence its ties with these countries are not conducive. The Iranian embassy in Damascus was ransacked in anger. The support which Syria provided to the Hezbollah, including being a conduit for weapons from Iran has ended. A weakened Hezbollah, unable to obtain fresh weapon supplies from Iran, would no longer be the threat which it currently is to Israel.
Further, Syria is no longer a buffer between Iran and Israel, nor a member of the axis of resistance, adding to insecurities of Iran. Syrian airspace can be exploited by Israel to strike Iran. Iran is hurriedly withdrawing members of its forces from Syria. There is a belief that Iran could be the next target for regime change. The only option for Iran to survive any onslaught from Israel and the US is to ensure development of nuclear weapons, a process which it would now being speeding up.
Russia has two bases in Syria. The Khmeimim airbase houses Russian aircraft and the Tartus naval facility services Russian ships. The airbase is a staging post for Russian mercenaries travelling to Africa while Tartus is its only warm water port. Their future is unknown. Russia is reaching out to the new regime, seeking to continue with these facilities. Moscow’s alternate option is to move these bases to Tobruk in Libya where it is engaged in dialogue with Khalifa Haftar, a pro-Russia leader.
While Russia supported the Assad regime, however, it faced lesser anger as compared to Iran, hence its assets remain secure and embassy untouched. At the end of the day, the fall of Assad is a loss of prestige for both, Iran and Russia.
Syria is currently far from stable. While Damascus may have fallen, there are other areas where the conflict rages, with both Turkey and the US supporting opposing factions. Turkey backed Syrian National Army, supported by Turkish air power, captured Manbij, held by US backed Syrian Democratic Forces. The US maintains about a battalion strength in Kurdish-controlled oil drilling areas. Turkey considers the Kurds a threat and launches operations against them, while the US backs its Kurdish proxies engaging the ISIS.
Turkey, which backed the HTS, would be hoping for a government closely aligned to it. This would enable it to move back the over 3 million refugees on its soil. What is to be seen is whether the new Syrian regime toes the Turkish line or akin to the Afghan Taliban projects an independent stance. The photograph of Pakistan’s DG ISI having tea in a Kabul hotel to celebrate the arrival of the Taliban regime comes to mind.
The US has been battling the ISIS, taking advantage of the turmoil in Syria. It regularly conducts airstrikes in the region. Whether it will continue to engage the ISIS with the new Trump administration or pull out is a question. Most western nations have stopped providing asylum to Syrian refugees, hoping for their return.
Currently Yemen, Somalia and Afghanistan are controlled by terrorist groups. Syria is the latest to join the bandwagon. While Yemen and Somalia continue threatening the world in some form, the Taliban have confined itself to its own region. How will Syria play out is to be seen. Like Taliban, the HTS could concentrate inwards for the moment. However, if pushed by Israel, as is happening between Pakistan and Afghanistan, there could be a change in its approach.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army