The Trump era begins The Statesman 28 Jan 2025
The Trump era begins The Statesman 28 Jan 2025
Donald Trump commenced his first day in office by signing a slew of executive orders, 26 in total, covering a vast variety of subjects. The same pace in issue of executive orders as also sacking of previously appointed individuals, continues. He has stopped all aid, less to Israel and Turkey. He appears to have come with preconceived plans on what he intends to achieve. Trump is also sending a global message that much will change.
His threat of fresh tariffs of upto 25% on Canada and Mexico from 01 Feb ended Trudeau’s tenure as PM of Canada, an indicator of what others whom he dislikes will face. There was also a warning of 100% tariffs to BRICS nations in case they refuse the US dollar as the global currency, which India has anyway rejected.
While he spoke to Chinese President Xi Jinping a few days before his swearing in and indicated his intent to visit China as also improve ties, his nominated team is profoundly anti-China. Donald’s team believes that the Chinese threat is paramount and must be countered. Hence, the first meeting conducted by his administration was of the QUAD foreign ministers.
It was sending a message to China. The joint statement mentioned that the four nations support a ‘shared commitment to strengthening a Free and Open Indo-Pacific where the rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity are upheld and defended.’ It added, ‘We also strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change status quo by force or coercion.’ The target is China.
Trump had invited Xi Jinping to his swearing in, but Beijing was represented by its Vice President Han Zheng. If despite this, Trump slams additional sanctions on China, then it would be a setback. China got some face-saving with Tik Tok receiving an extension under conditions.
Trump’s threat of employing tariffs as a weapon and his intention of pushing his own agenda, ignoring his allies, could alter global dynamics. Withdrawing the US from the WHO as also the Paris accord for the second time sends a message that he will not accept what he believes is unfair to the US. Simultaneously, these bodies become financially weak without US support. His intent to make US the world’s largest producer of oil as also reduce oil prices signals an end to electric cars and climate change actions.
He assumes that if he fulfils his poll promises, he would gain popularity within the US, something which would give his ego a boost. Hence, amongst his first set of directives was strengthening borders and deporting illegal immigrants, a major poll promise. This has already begun.
India has displayed its willingness to work with the US administration on this and accept those whom the US government identifies as illegal immigrants. As per US officials there are approximately 18000 identified Indian illegal immigrants.
Trump has already changed the name of the Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America, solely for his domestic audience. Mexico would never accept the new term. It is the same as using the term Indo-Pacific for the Indian Ocean Region. While India, the US and its allies do so, China and Pakistan continue terming it as the Asia-Pacific.
He also reinstated Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, reversing a recent Biden decision. Whether he would fulfil his promise to annex the Panama Canal or move towards purchasing Greenland is to be seen. An acrimonious conversation on Greenland has already taken place between Trump and the PM of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen. Employing military power in either case would be globally questioned.
There is even disquiet within the US on Trump’s actions. Democratic party led states as also human rights groups have joined hands to file lawsuits challenging Trump’s executive order which rolls back birthright citizenship in the US. They believe it goes against the 14th amendment which mentions that people born in the US and subject to its jurisdiction are citizens.
Trump has already conveyed his intent to work towards terminating the Ukraine-Russia conflict. He is willing to exploit his favourite card, sanctions. Trump is a known fan of Putin and would meet him at the first opportunity. The resolution of Ukraine would never be on Zelensky’s terms but largely on Moscow’s. This may imply going against the views of the European Union and NATO.
Ukraine will not be offered NATO membership during Trump’s tenure. US aid to Ukraine has already been stalled. NATO may thereafter witness lesser US involvement, unless its members enhance defence spending.
Simultaneously, he has no intention on engaging militarily with China. He believes it can be contained by negotiation and tariffs. Trump’s major policy makers, Marc Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, would prefer US ending conflicts in Europe and concentrating on challenging China in Asia. Hence emphasis will remain on the QUAD.
In 2017, Trump was not prepared to be President. He took time to make his appointments as also made multiple errors in selecting the right staff, changing them as days went by. In his first 24 months as President, he had a record three White House chiefs of staff. This time, he appears clear and focused on his intent. His major advisors have been nominated and his plan on what is to be done made clear. His inaugural speech indicated that he is a President in a hurry to push through a pre-decided agenda.
Trump is a natural when it comes to have people guessing on what he would do next. Allies and foes remain confused on his intent. Netanyahu was compelled by Trump’s Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, to accept the ceasefire. While the US would arm Israel, whether it would permit it to re-commence operations is to be seen.
This is Trump’s final tenure. He will work towards leaving a legacy which few future presidents can hope to match. His target would also be global recognition via the Nobel Peace Prize. His showmanship and intent to resolve global issues as also compel others to share the burden of global security will cause discern amongst his allies. Trump has displayed from the start that he does not regard allies and challengers as different and would treat them as one. The world will have to deal with an unpredictable Trump.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army
India as the largest English speaking nation, and veto-wielding power in BRICS+, was bound by common values with America.
It disregards crypto, yuan and digital currency in BRICS+ and keeps out anti-US and anti-US$ countries from the organisation. New Delhi may rethink digital currency provided it’s used for bilateral trade and not converted into fiat currency.
Turkey and Pakistan were kept out of BRICS+ although they were not anti-US. China and Russia, both anti-US and anti-US$, are founding BRICS+ members.
Malaysia was denied membership by New Delhi for institutionalised discrimination against the Indian Diaspora in particular and ganging up with Turkey and Pakistan against India, but allowed partner status.
New Delhi, starting with US sanctions hit Russia, has created group of 20 nations for bilateral trade denominated in rupees. The group will be an alternative for countries hit by US sanctions and others who have fewer US$ in their forex reserves.
The US has allegedly weaponised SWIFT which controls inter-bank transfers. The EU uses IBAN for the same purpose.
The US$ has been valued in gold since the US holds half the government gold in the world. Gold can only be bought and sold with the US$.
The US$, as the international reserve currency, was the trigger currency in cross trading for working out exchange rates in the Forex Market. The US$ was the only currency which can be converted directly into any currency. All other currencies can only be converted through the US$.
Money was intrinsically worthless.
It gets value from the 2nd person accepting it from the 1st person, in exchange for goods and services, based on the confidence that 3rd person will accept from him.
It’s true that government prints money.
The banks create money in the form of crediting 8 in loans for every 1 deposited.
The amount of money in circulation not only depends on the physical quantity but also the volatility (changes) of circulation. If 10, for example, changes hands ten times in an hour, that means 100 in circulation.
India has the largest amount of household gold in the world.
India, on paper, was the richest nation in the history of civilisations, having collected gold for 70K years. Housewives in India don’t trust the politicians and government on gold. The Gold Trust of India tracks household gold. It cannot be added with the forex reserves lest inflation go through the roof and destroy industry and the economy.
The people of India, empowered by household gold, somehow find the way without depending on politics, the government, the court and the economy.
Every household in India, no matter how poor, has some gold for the proverbial rainy day and weddings.
The people in India, notwithstanding the Indian Diaspora in 210 countries, don’t believe the grass was greener on the other side.
No matter where we stay, say the people, what’s important was that money which will not be missed must be saved. Otherwise, no matter how much the income, there’s the ever present risk of bankruptcy despite not being in business.
The scourge of poverty, besides saving money which won’t be missed and collecting household gold, can be overcome by consumer resistance.
Very well summation of important issues and deduction’s thereof from the Trump decisions. It was an emergency situation in the US and decisive actions were reqd.
Thank you.
Very well summation of important issues and deduction’s thereof from the Trump decisions. It was an emergency situation in the US and decisive actions were reqd.
An excellent article. Few doubts as under:
(a) Apart from QUAD and commonality of seeing China as main threat, what leverage does India have to counter Trump’s aggressive approach in tariff war, trade in currency other than dollars, twisting our arms to buy defence equipment from USA while withholding essential eqpt needed for TEJAS etc. ?
(b) Will Trump be able to dismantle USA ‘s deep state and remove threat to Indian democratically elected government to obviate the kind of meddling as in case of BD.
(c) Likely effect of Trump’s tenure on India.
An excellent article. Few doubts as under:
(a) Apart from QUAD and commonality of seeing China as main threat, what leverage does India have to counter Trump’s aggressive approach in tariff war, trade in currency other than dollars, twisting our arms to buy defence equipment from USA while withholding essential eqpt needed for TEJAS etc. ?
(b) Will Trump be able to dismantle USA ‘s deep state and remove threat to Indian democratically elected government to obviate the kind of meddling as in case of BD.
(c) Likely effect of Trump’s tenure on India.
I agree, leverage is limited. What is added is commonality of interests in countering China not only in Asia but also Africa and rest of Global South where India has a form hold. No nation can handle its threats and challengers alone. The dismantling of USAID is the first step. Will the pace continue is to be seen. There will be differences which we will seek to resolve. Hopefully should go well