Pakistan has few options The Excelsior 28 Mar 2025
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Pakistan has few options The Excelsior 28 Mar 2025
The last few weeks have witnessed a spurt of incidents involving various groups, battling Pak security forces, including the Baloch Freedom Fighters. Over 2000 attacks, including terrorist strikes and suicide bombings, have occurred in different parts of the country in the past year. After every incident, the Pak army announces success, on occasions admitting casualties, always claiming that it has eliminated those involved. Every incident has a foreign hand, occasionally Afghanistan but permanently India.
Few believe their success stories; aware their statements are a bunch of lies pushed by a supressed media. So involved is the Pak army in maintaining its façade of democracy while suppressing Imran Khan’s PTI that it ignores rising challenges to its existence as a nation-state. Pakistani cleric and lawmaker Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman had even stated in their National Assembly, ‘If districts in Baluchistan announce liberation, the UN will accept their independence and Pakistan will fall.’ While the statement may be far-fetched, however conveys that the situation is rapidly deteriorating.
Pakistan’s Parliamentary Committee on National Security met recently in Islamabad. Political differences ensured that the nation could not present a unified front, as the opposition boycotted the meet. While politicians demanded launching a fresh National Action Plan and a new anti-terrorist drive, the army accused politicians claiming the nation needed ‘better governance.’ At the end of the day, nothing changed.
The hijacking of the Jaffar express at the Bolan Pass by the BLA (Baloch Liberation Army) was a major embarrassment to the state. The BLA achieved its intent to gain global attention to their freedom struggle and embarrass Pakistan. It was a suicide mission and those involved were aware. Pakistan could never negotiate as those whose release the BLA sought were possibly no longer alive. It was a media blitz and the BLA won it hands down. As usual the Pak army was left stuttering.
Even before the Pak army announced a successful initial rescue of passengers, the BLA had released videos of freed Baloch and all women and children walking away. Pakistan’s military spokesperson, the DGISPR, made statements admitting around twenty casualties, while witnesses mentioned seeing bodies of dozens of slain soldiers. The BLA claimed that over 240 soldiers taken prisoners were eliminated. The true figures many never emerge as the BLA would exaggerate their numbers, while the Pak army would suppress its losses.
Such was the disbelief in the DGISPR’s statement that they were compelled to move their pet journalists to the incident site to highlight their success, that too after a prolonged gap. It was a repeat of their action after India’s successful launch of the Balakote strike. In both cases, the media was taken days later to project a different picture. However, all knew the truth.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues with its strikes on Pak troops in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), hitting bases after bases. Its intent is to create an Islamic state. There are regions in KP directly under its control, which the Pak army fears to admit. To add to Pakistan’s problems is the emergence of new groups including Jaish-e-Umari and Harkat Inqilab Islami Pakistan in KP. Both have announced that the Pak army is their primary target and attacks by them have commenced.
Both Pakistan’s western provinces, Baluchistan and KP, are on the boil. Instead of looking inwards and accepting its administrative and political flaws, including failure to win over its own populace, thereby alienating anti-Pakistan groups, Islamabad continues to blame its neighbours, Afghanistan, Iran and India for its ills. Zahid Hussain describes the basic flaw in Pakistan’s policy in his piece in The Dawn, ‘(application of) kinetic responses to a mainly political problem has pushed many towards militancy.’
Pakistan announced that hijackers of the Jaffar Express were in communication with their handlers in Afghanistan, while they possess bases in Iran. As expected, India is blamed for all happenings within Pak, terrorist attacks, floods and even droughts. India, in this case, is accused, apart from supporting terrorists, of displaying ‘fake footage of the incident to spread propaganda.’
To further embarrass Pakistan is targeted killings of known sympathizers as also members of anti-India terrorist groups by unknown gunmen, the latest being Abu Qatal, a leader of the LeT and close associate of its leader Hafiz Saeed. In most cases, Pakistan refuses to admit to these incidents. Almost all remain unsolved. In few instances, innocents are arrested, tortured to accept their involvement and compelled to point fingers at Indian agencies.
The Pakistan army has launched multiple anti-terrorist operations, with every army chief commencing one, hoping to leave behind his legacy, while satisfying demands of China. Every operation commences with much fanfare, is claimed to be a resounding success, with the scenario slipping back in no time. As things return to normal, the blame shifts to Afghanistan and India.
If Pak has to bring about peace in its western provinces, then it must flood the region with troops, dominate heights and launch relentless operations. Alongside this it must win over the population, alienating those challenging the state. There are some in Pak who advocate that peace in Baluchistan and KP lies through Kashmir. They imply that by burning India, they can bring about normalcy in their western provinces.
They are only partially right. Peace in the west flows from peace in the east. If Pak is to enhance deployment in its western provinces, it needs peace with India to enable movement of forces. For that to happen, it must curb anti-India terrorist groups, punish those involved in fermenting terrorism in India and commence talks. A peaceful LoC is essential to counter growing freedom movements on its western borders.
Those in Pak who believe that tense Indo-China ties can be leveraged for Pakistan’s benefit must re-assess the global scenario. China is fast losing western markets and facing increased tariffs. It needs India more than ever. It will willingly dump Pak for India. Increased Chinese targeting by the BLA is frustrating them, as their financial losses mount.
Even if Pakistan is to engage Afghanistan militarily while battling insurgencies, it needs additional troops. These can only flow from the Indian border. Thus, irrespective of the scenario, peace on its western borders will follow peace on its eastern front. The cards are now in India’s favour. Pakistan must accept reality, rather than live in a delusionary world.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army