75 years of Indo-China diplomatic ties The Excelsior 11 Apr 2025
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75 years of Indo-China diplomatic ties The Excelsior 11 Apr 2025
The Chinese embassy in New Delhi hosted an event marking the 75th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between the two nations last week. It came at a time when the US-China trade war had just erupted. The Indian foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, was the chief guest on the occasion. The Chinese ambassador, Xu Feihong, mentioned in his opening remarks, ‘Over the past 75 years, despite weathering ups and downs, China-India relations have always surged forward like the Yangtze and the Ganges.’
Vikran Misri, highlighting lessons which both nations must keep in mind, stated, ‘peace and tranquillity in the border areas is critical for the smooth development of our overall bilateral relations.’ He added, ‘The durable basis for rebuilding our ties is the three-fold formula of mutual respect, mutual sensitivity, and mutual interest.’
President Murmu and PM Modi exchanged messages with their Chinese counterparts, President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang on the occasion. President Xi, in his message mentioned that the two countries should ‘realise a cooperative pas de deux of the dragon and the elephant.’ President Murmu stated, ‘stable, predictable and amicable’ bilateral relations will bring major benefits to both nations and the world.
The congratulatory messages between the leaders were only released on Chinese media, with the Indian government silent. The anniversary of establishing diplomatic ties was also only celebrated by the Chinese embassy and its consulates in India. There were no reports of similar celebrations by Indian diplomatic institutions in China. The occasion was widely covered in Chinese media networks, while scantly in Indian media.
Possibly for India, relations between the two states have still not reached the level of trust as before and hence, celebrations could be premature. The two nations have yet to implement direct flights, resumption of Mansarovar Yatra, journalist’s accreditation and cooperation on trans-boundary rivers, despite these being agreed to in principle.
A fortnight ago, PM Modi, in an interview with Lex Fridman had stated that trust would return to the relationship ‘slowly but surely.’ This remains the Indian viewpoint.
The fact remains that it is China which is pushing for closer ties, while India is hesitant, aware that China can change its stand at any time as it did so in 2020. In case there is a clash along the LAC, the current political dispensation can be impacted in future elections, especially if it moves diplomatically and economically closer to China. Hence, the hesitation.
China has always been a selfish state and has established a reputation of an unforgiving money lender, as also a nation which will prolong negotiations to achieve its goals. However, it currently appears that Beijing is pushing to project itself differently, especially as far as relations with India are concerned.
There are enough reasons for India to remain suspicious of Chinese intent. China continues to block Indian entry into major groups such as the Nuclear Supplier Group as also the UN Security Council as a permanent member. It continues to arm Pakistan and enhance its presence in India’s neighbourhood. Along the LAC, while agreements on patrolling may have been reached, there is no troop reduction. While it displays an intent to enhance economic ties, militarily it projects itself as a challenger.
India, on the other hand, countering China, has enhanced its ties with Taiwan as also is providing sophisticated Brahmos Missiles to the Philippines and other SE Asian nations. It is a member of the QUAD and a close strategic military partner of the US, which has declared that its main contender is China. Both view the other as a competitor.
Simultaneously, trade between India and China has grown over the years. The two are members of the BRICS and SCO. RIC (Russia-India-China) is currently in cold storage. India is slowly easing restrictions on Chinese investments and technology in the country in non-critical sectors excluding defence, telecommunications, energy etc. However, in case China continues to block movement of technology and technical personnel to prevent shifting of global manufacturing from China to India, New Delhi may need to respond in kind.
Another reason for China to woo India is its market and impact of Trump’s recent tariffs. Chinese Electric Vehicles have faced additional tariffs across the world, including the EU and Canada, denting the industry. Trump recently announced 34% tariff on Chinese products, making it 54%, as 20% tariffs already exist.
China has retaliated by imposing 34% duty across all US imports, restricted export of rare earth minerals as also placed select US companies on export control list, restricting their access to Chinese markets. The trade war has just begun. China currently holds a trade surplus of USD 295 billion. Imposed tariffs would prevent China achieving its projected 5% growth this year as also adversely impact its economy as its domestic consumption has dropped and its property market is near collapse.
The balance of trade between India and China rests heavily in favour of China. India is already imposing dumping duties on multiple Chinese items including steel. Xu Feihong mentioned recently that China is willing ‘to import more Indian products that are well-suited to the Chinese market,’ possibly implying agricultural products, which it earlier imported from the US. The problem remains that China has a tendency to restrict or delay clearing imports.
The statement by the ambassador may mean nothing unless it is visible on ground. He added that Beijing hoped that India would create a fair environment for Chinese companies. This too should be reciprocal to China enhancing imports.
While Trump’s tariffs may push India-China economic ties closer, these will continue to be dominated by lack of trust and an unsettled LAC. The pressure is more on China, which faces loss of the US market, than on India. Rushing to embrace the dragon based on its fake promises may not be the ideal step. India is already working on multiple free trade agreements, including with the EU and the US. It has options for expanding its markets beyond the US. For China, already under pressure from the US, EU and Canada, options are limited.
India must not give in to the dragon embrace without normalizing deployment along the LAC. It cannot be caught on the wrong foot again. Further, this is the time for India to ensure that the one-sided balance of trade drops to reasonable levels, with China enhancing imports from India.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army