As US-China trade war escalates is there an opportunity for India First Post 17 Apr 2025
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As US-China trade war escalates is there an opportunity for India First Post 17 Apr 2025
The US-China trade war continues with neither side willing to bend and take the first step towards reconciliation. China countered US tariffs with its own in a tit-for-tat move. The Chinese embassy in Washington tweeted, ‘If the US is bent on waging a trade war, China will fight to the end.’ Both nations wait for the other to make the first call.
Simultaneously, Beijing is courting other nations, including India, ASEAN and the EU, to join hands with it in challenging US tariffs. The Chinese embassy spokesperson in India, Yu Jing, mentioned, ‘China and India are the two largest developing countries, and we should stand together to oppose unilateralism and protect our development rights.’ India did not respond.
The Chinese Commerce minister spoke to his EU counterpart, Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, on the subject. China even offered to start negotiations on electric vehicle pricing commitments and other trade issues. He also discussed US tariffs with his Malaysian counterpart (Malaysia is the rotating president of the ASEAN). It is unlikely China will garner much support.
The Chinese President is visiting Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia, projecting itself as a reliable ally, willing to temporarily set aside territorial disputes, in return for enhanced economic cooperation. Beijing is displaying itself as a responsible power, rather than a neighbourhood bully, that it in reality is. Chinese attempts are unlikely to yield results as tariffs on other nations are currently stalled. China is desperate for new markets as US doors close, otherwise there could be massive layoffs.
China, already facing an economic slowdown and increased unemployment, cannot afford further setbacks. While seeking alternatives, it is playing on the psyche of its population, hoping to enhance national spirit as it announces itself as the only nation and Xi Jinping, the only leader, standing up to global bully, Donald Trump.
Internally China has begun encouraging an anti-US stance on its social media website, Weibo. It has blocked all references to US imposed tariffs. The Chinese Communist party’s internal mouthpieces have begun publishing articles and editorials projecting resilience of the Chinese people and its economy in historically countering risks and challenges. They also falsely highlight growing economic ties with their neighbours.
The reality is that all of China’s neighbours, including India, are taking precautions to prevent China dumping products in their markets. Further, China is in territorial disputes with most of its neighbours. The Chinese government is aware of impact of tariffs on their economy, and hence are hoping to calm their public before anger peaks. This also displays that Beijing lacks a definite strategy to counter the US, while it responds in equal measure.
In its latest offensive, China has begun targeting established western brands. Its TikTok media network is releasing multiple videos highlighting products sold by major brands in the west as purchased at very cheap rates from Chinese companies. It has listed over 30 known global consumer brands. The message conveyed is that these companies are cheating customers in the west as cost of manufacture is 1/10th the sale price.
Chinese companies are now offering these products directly at throwaway prices. Videos from TikTok are re-emerging in other media networks, pushed by Chinese handles. Beijing, in desperation, has lifted the secrecy clause which western companies had with Chinese manufacturers. It is only a matter of time before TikTok is banned and US pressure on its sale increased. This open onslaught will also impact future procurements by western global giants from China.
On X (formally Twitter), there is a sudden surge of pro-China handles pushing Beijing’s narrative while accusing the US of bullying. It appears that China has activated all its sleeping social media handles, even though X is formally banned in China. Displaying its enhanced national spirit, a handle quoted a Chinese factory owner, mentioning, ‘Only when a great nation rises can the common people have dignity. Sacrifice is not terrifying, but surrender is.’
Another mentioned, ‘When the UK kisses Trump’s ass, it’s “strategic diplomacy.” When China says “we will never yield,” it’s a global threat.’ Every tweet by pro-China handles, are retweeted and positively commented upon by a bunch of similar handles. A look at those pushing the Chinese agenda will display, even to a layman, that these are fake handles, toeing the CCP line. Intelligence or maturity in managing social media is missing. It is an act of desperation rather than a media strategy. It is akin to their failed wolf warrior diplomacy.
India is also a target on social media for Chinese bots. This is because Delhi has displayed concern over Chinese dumping and believes that increased tariffs on China is an opportunity. A Chinese handle mentioned, ‘China has received moral support from most people around the world during this tariff war, but Indians seems to see it as their opportunity.’ It added, ‘Small countries can indeed be opportunists, but large countries should not do so. The so-called “opportunities” are often accompanied by unpredictable risks.’
With India refusing to permit BYD EVs to enter its market, a Chinese handle mentioned, ‘BYD flat-out denies any plans to invest in an Indian EV plant.’ It adds, ‘doing business in India is like playing roulette with contracts — no one trusts you to pay what you owe.’ India is evidently the only nation which can challenge China economically and militarily in Asia and is unwilling to bend. China targeting India specifically is because it fears western firms migrating to India. Many electronic companies have already migrated.
Historically the Chinese refuse to communicate in English, but in this social media war, their fluency in English, especially in their videos and comments, is astounding. The Chinese appear to be sending the message that are the only one’s standing upto the US. It is indirectly selling Xi Jinping as the global leader challenging Trump.
For Xi Jinping, this is a battle for survival. He is being projected as the national saviour and hence cannot look weak. For the Chinese, backing down to Trump would display that economic pressures can break China, opening doors to sanctions at some stage.
The Chinese are aware that the US intent is to prevent their rise as a competitor and therefore are hitting back in every manner on every platform, including lowering the image of western brand names exploiting social media networks. Trump is unlikely to bend towards a trade deal with a massive trade deficit. Hence a meeting between him and Xi is unlikely to result in any positives.
For both nations, decoupling from each other’s economy, is the long-term solution. This trade war has just begun. China, pushed to a corner, will hit back exploiting all avenues including social media. As the war escalates, Trump is unlikely to expand tariffs with other nations, and will force US companies to ditch China, thereby isolating it. For its neighbours, mainly Vietnam, Cambodia and India, it is an opportunity not to be missed.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army