Can India achieve its aims The Excelsior 17 May 2025
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Can India achieve its aims The Excelsior 17 May 2025
India launched Operation Sindoor by targeting nine terrorist bases in Pakistan as retaliation to the Pahalgam terrorist attack which killed 26 innocent tourists, including one from Nepal. Pakistan responded by attempting to hit Indian cities and military installations employing drones and missiles but were thwarted by Indian air defence systems. India countered by neutralizing Pakistan’s air bases as also hitting its nuclear storage facility in the Kirni hills, a first anywhere in the world.
A rattled Pakistan appealed for a ceasefire in talks between the two DGMO’s (Director General Military Operations). There were two calls made by their DGMO. The ceasefire is holding with sporadic reports of violation. Talks between the two DGMOs have concluded where India conveyed its red line on terrorist strikes.
For decades India had been facing Pakistan sponsored terrorism throughout J and K, occasionally shifting from the valley to the plains. It had even spread to different parts the country resulting in loss of lives in blasts in Mumbai, Delhi and Hyderabad, amongst other places. A few train accidents with high casualties were also attributed to Pak backed terrorists.
Added was indoctrination through Mosques, largely in Kashmir, creating an anti-India lobby. Funding of separatists through Hawala network, resulted in organized violence, bandhs and hartals, all displaying to the world that Kashmir remains disputed and the Indian government was losing control over the region. Local youth were enamoured by terrorists posing on social media and joined them in large numbers.
Fencing the LoC to reduce (not stop) the flow of terrorists were one of the measures undertaken by India, apart from enhancing its force levels in the region and initiating strong measures. Initially, the aim of Pakistan, which funded, trained and pushed the terrorists was to target non-Muslim residents in the valley. It led to widespread bloodshed leading to migration of non-Muslim population.
Terrorism got a boost with 9/11 and US invasion of Afghanistan. For two decades, the US and NATO needed Pakistan’s Karachi port as also its airspace. Pakistan continued playing the double game backing the Taliban while supporting the US war on terror. The US had no choice but to accept. Islamabad even received funding and weapons from the US for its collaboration. Its F 16s were given by the US specifically for targeting terrorists but these have been employed for anything but them.
This tacit support from the west added to Pakistan’s confidence in enhancing terrorism in J and K. That was the period when it even infiltrated Afghan terrorists into the valley. India attempted to project its concerns to the globe but to no avail. The world tended to ignore India, largely because New Delhi lacked power and global standing while Pakistan was strategically important for supporting NATO operations in Afghanistan. Over a period of time, a lot changed.
Today, Pakistan is alone, less some form of support from China, Turkey and Azerbaijan. While the Arab world is neutral, Pak manoeuvres the OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) to give pro-Pak statements. The rest of the world demands accountability from Pak. The UNSC closed door meeting called by Pak, failed to issue any joint statement. Reports mention of members questioning Pakistan on its actions.
India responded to the Pahalgam strike in a coordinated manner. Its suspension of the IWT (Indus Water Treaty) still left doors open for its reinstatement, provided Pak backed down on its actions. Blocking trade, which was mainly medical API’s and medicines were to add to Pakistan’s difficulties. It was here that Pak could have backtracked and opened backchannel dialogue. It failed, believing India would draw down at some stage.
India’s military action was the final nail. India struck all its targets, with almost no hinderance from China’s famed air defence systems, which failed. The accuracy of its Brahmos missiles became evident. On the contrary Pakistan’s counteractions were blocked by India’s integrated air defence systems. The damage to Pak military assets was substantive, forcing Pak to request for a ceasefire.
Post both, Uri and Pulwama, India launched limited strikes hoping to send the message that its patience was running thin and all could be normal in case Pak desists from supporting terrorist groups. Pakistan controlled its terrorists for a period, before letting them loose again. The gap between Uri and Pulwama was around three years and Pulwama to Pahalgam, six years.
India’s aim has always been to compel Pak to stop supporting terrorist groups against it. This time too, the measures adopted had a similar intent but the strategy was different. The question continues as before, will India succeed this time.
This time around, India is targeting Pakistan’s Awam, sending the message that unless the public rises and compels their army to back down, India will not relent.
The suspension of the IWT came at a time when the planting of the Kharif crop is due. Agriculture is a critical sector in Pakistan’s economy. It accounts for almost 20% of the GDP and employs over 40% of the population. Erratic water flow, depending on holding in Indian dams, will have a major impact on the crops.
A report in the Dawn of 07 May mentioned that their Khanpur Dam which provides water to Islamabad and Rawalpindi has just 35 days of water left. Though the dam does not depend on flows from rivers under the IWT, it indicates their future in case water supply is suspended.
By stopping all trade, impact would be largely on APIs as also cheap medical supplies from India. Compelled to import at high rates, the population would be forced to bear the brunt. It is only when the population realizes that their sufferings are aggravated due to the foolhardiness of their senior leadership, it is then that there could be a change.
Pakistan is aware that it has few supporters across the globe and almost none amongst western powers. Hence, its ability to influence India to relent is low. The World bank has already mentioned that its role in the IWT is only that of a facilitator and it will not intervene.
Finally, India’s military operation has left no doubt that in case Pak does not change its approach, New Delhi has the military power to respond with greater power. Will all this be enough to compel Pak to change. Time will tell.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army