India must prepare to plough a lone farrow The Statesman 17 Jun 2025
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India must prepare to plough a lone farrow The Statesman 17 Jun 2025
Every time India reacted to Pakistan backed terrorist strikes, it raised the benchmark. What began as ‘Kadi Ninda’ pre-2014, cross-border strike post Uri in 2016, Balakote in 2019, finally ending up with damaging and destroying Pakistan’s strategic assets in Operation Sindoor. Each time Pakistan prepared for a repeat of the last, with modifications, the result was something far more powerful and damaging.
Despite achieving success, India left Pakistan with the window to avoid admitting defeat, saving face within, based on its narratives. The aim was never to humiliate Pak but to convey a strong message to its leadership, hoping it would be taken. Operation Sindoor was no different.
An added concern for India this time was open military support from China which apart from its equipment also provided inputs including electronic, satellite as also from its AWACS. Alongside China was Turkey, which provided drones, its operators and positioned an anti-submarine warfare ship in Karachi. Its traditional support base from West Asia remained neutral.
Global reactions followed predictable lines. Western nations, while sympathizing with India on the terrorist strike, accepted the Pak version of Kashmir being disputed. None blamed Pak for the terrorist strike, desiring peace. Each nation considers its relations based on national interests.
India had refused to condemn Russia for its Ukraine attack despite pleading by Europe and the US, as ties with Russia are to its advantage. Jaishankar even commented that ‘Europe thinks its problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not its problem.’ We had then towed a neutral line mentioning ‘we are on the side of peace.’ Similarly, India’s terrorism problems are not the world’s problem. We should have no reason to complain.
The statement by US CENTCOM Chief, General Michael Kurilla on Pakistan, ‘They are in an active counterterrorism fight right now, and they have been a phenomenal partner in the counterterrorism world,’ has irked many. The US CENTCOM area of responsibility includes Pak, while the US Indo-Pacific Command responsibility commences from India. The two will have their own views on nations within their spheres.
US theatre commands are tasked to build military to military ties with countries forming part of its area of responsibility. The US CENTCOM needs Pakistan to contain terrorism, therefore its chief will speak from his own perspective. It should in no way indicate a shift in stance of the national government. It must be known that the world will not adhere to India’s demands of isolating Pak but has simultaneously understood India’s approach, which is most important.
Further, the west does not want Pak to move downhill economically as it remains a nuclear state. Thus, despite Indian prodding, loans from multiple donor agencies continue to flow into the country. These are loans, not grants, hence need to be utilized as per laid down norms and have to be repaid, adding to Pak’s national debt.
Islamabad’s nomination to crucial UNSC controlled bodies, prompted the Indian defence minister to mention that it is like asking the cat to guard the milk. There are checks and balances in these bodies. Pak cannot do anything spectacular based on its appointment.
India had not responded to Pak sponsored terrorist strikes till the current dispensation came to power. Delhi’s policy of complaining to the world, seeking global support did little to curb Pakistan’s actions. On the contrary it emboldened them. The frequency of attacks increased while spreading across the country. The world, has historically, considered terrorism to be an Indo-Pak problem and still does.
Since 2016, Indian policy towards terrorism changed and it employed military power in response to terrorist strikes. The previous army chief of Pakistan, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, realizing the futility of continued hostility proposed a ceasefire along the LoC. Change of command in Rawalpindi, tussle against Imran Khan as also loss of the country compelled Asim Munir to do something different to regain control. What better than a semblance of conflict with India.
Ultimately, Munir’s plans went awry. Pak lost posts, strategic assets, including air bases, air defence control centres and terrorist camps. The involvement of their army with terrorism was exposed. Interestingly, the Pakistan air force was largely employed, while its army vacated posts, displayed white flags and withdrew when India launched artillery barrages. At the end of the day, the air force chief was granted an extension, while the chief of a failed army made a field marshal.
India’s multipronged approach this time is likely to have Pak on the backfoot. Holding the IWT in abeyance especially with the Kharif season approaching will increase pressure. Added is the Pak economy. The more it spends on defence, the less it has for development and social welfare adding to dissatisfaction and anger within. This year, Pakistan earmarked almost 47% of its budget for debt servicing, 20% for defence (less salaries and pensions) amid reduced funds for welfare.
Pakistan is moving the USSR way, where increased defence expenditure to keep pace with the US was one of the causes leading in its collapse. India must enhance its defence budget, which it easily can, forcing Pak to follow suit.
Islamabad is China’s proxy and has to dance to ‘his master’s (Beijing) voice.’ China offering Pak its latest aircraft, which even it has not inducted, is with the hope of them being battletested against India in the future. Lessons learnt from the battlefield are crucial for future development.
The problem arising for India is to anticipate the next clash. This is not the last terrorist incident as the Pak army knows it has been bruised and morale impacted, though hidden from its populace. It will act to regain some prestige.
PM Modi has laid down India’s redlines by mentioning that we will no longer differentiate between terrorist locations and those who support it. This implies that the error made in Operation Sindoor in engaging terrorist camps without degrading air defence capabilities exposing aircrafts to danger will not be repeated. Hence, keeping operations below nuclear thresholds may not be easily possible. As escalation levels increase, threats of all-out conflict rise.
Simultaneously, we must remember that our decisions are our own. The world may sympathize, but will neither join in accusing Pakistan nor back our military option. Their national interests may dictate otherwise. India will have to act on its own. This is reality and must be accepted.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army