Has Indian foreign policy failed in the Maldives? The Statesman 10 Apr 18
In recent times, especially since President Abdulla Yameen assumed power, there has been a stream of anti-India actions. It has moved closer to China, imposed emergency and jailed political leaders while turning down Indian requests for participation in the Indian naval exercise, Milan. It also refused to send any delegation to the Indian defence expo and asked India to retake back its Dhruv helicopter. It simultaneously welcomed the Pak army chief with open arms.
While most could have been ignored as the actions of a child seeking attention of both parents, India and China, as also playing one against the other, however the visit of the Pak army chief was possibly the cake. India would have ignored the visit, except that it comes at a time when Maldives is in a Chinese embrace and India was, as is the unwritten rule, previously uninformed of the visit. What irked India more was the announcement of joint patrolling of Maldives Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ), claims of which conflict with that of Sri Lanka.
Maldives had declared that no shipping vessel can enter its EEZ without prior permission of its government. It could never enforce it but involving the Pak navy is another issue. The Pak navy may not be able to deploy its ships on a permanent basis, as its navy presently lacks capacity, however the announcement irked India. Maldives turning down participation in Exercise Milan would never have been an issue, except that it also participates in Pak conducted Bi-annual exercise, Aman, on which it has made no mention.
Pak and Maldives even played out the religious card. The statement issued by the Maldivian President’s office post the visit of General Bajwa stated, ‘Noting that Pakistan and Maldives are two brotherly Muslim countries, the General emphasised on further cultivating ties of friendship’. Pak went ahead and even offered welcoming members of the Maldivian National Counter-Terrorism Centre and providing military doctors to Maldives.
When Yameen declared emergency and requested India to accept a delegate to hear out reasons for the same, India refused. India even went ahead and conducted naval exercises close to Maldives, which was being touted as possible Indian military intervention in the country. Nasheed, the ex-President, now in self-exile in Sri Lanka, requested Indian interference, which India refused. India however, along with the US and other western nations criticized the emergency, demanded its roll-back and sought the release of political prisoners, which Yameen refused. By moving closer to Pak, Yameen is now closing doors to India in multiple ways.
Indian decisions were also impacted by Chinese warnings. Chinese investments and Maldives active participation in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) would ensure that China would never desire a regime change. For China, any dictator following any policy is acceptable, provided he tows the Chinese line. As China’s close ally Pak wades in, it ensures that Maldives moves further away from India.
Chinese investments in Maldives is a repeat story of Pak or Sri Lanka, where unable to repay loans they get deeper and deeper into debt. Thus, Maldives is deep into the Chinese camp. Its offering China an uninhabited island for developing into a tourist destination, in addition to other projects including construction of a bridge, linking Male to its nearest island and the airport would have Male permanently indebted. It may, like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and possibly Myanmar end up providing a naval base to China, supporting its ‘String of pearls’ policy.
The issue is, whether we have made an error in our foreign policy judgement or have we adopted a wait and watch policy which could prove beneficial with time or by sticking to our ideals opened doors for inimical nations to grab a foothold at our doorstep, enhancing threats.
Many analysts felt that India should have intervened militarily to restore democracy in Maldives, post the declaration of emergency, removing the dictator regime of Yameen, seeking to replace it with a government seen closer to India. Military intervention in an internal issue of Maldives would have damaged Indian reputation in the region. India may continue being accepted as a military power, but would be considered as an unreliable ally, which has waded in uninvited to remove a legally established government.
Indian intervention may have succeeded but would have pushed our other smaller neighbours into the Chinese lap. Nepal which already has a pro-China Oli in power, would have rushed deeper into China’s arms, solely to keep India at bay. The trust and respect which India developed over the years in the neighbourhood would have been blown to smithereens.
India flawed from the time Yameen took power. It should have ignored supporting his predecessor and made efforts to move closer, adopting a realist approach to diplomacy, rather than an idealist one. Even when emergency was declared, the crackdown was in progress it could have been more supportive and accepted the special envoy, as it could have been the means of conveying its strong message. It could have opened channels of communication and removed any fear of Indian intervention, which was being touted in Maldives as imminent. By ignoring, it closed all doors and enhanced distrust. Maldives has retaliated by indicating its displeasure, assured of Chinese and Pak backing.
India has no option, but to wait and watch. There would be a regime change sometime in the future, but by then, it may be too late, China would have waded in so deep, that no government would ever be able to distance it.
Maldives has clearly been an Indian foreign policy failure, based on our mistaken belief that we are too powerful in the sub-continent to be ignored. This lesson must sink in and we must learn from it in the days ahead. We are likely to have similar issues with other South Asian nation in the future, hence must be careful to avoid pushing it too far. India should move into realism in foreign policy, ignoring idealism.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army