An opportunity to corner Pak The Statesman 24 Oct 17
The US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, is in India for his maiden visit today, as part of his South Asia tour which would also possibly take him to Afghanistan. He comes to India after visiting Pak, where he would have only heard a collection of false complaints against India, including their desperate objections to its enhanced role in Afghanistan. While his recent statements concerning growing relations between the US and India are making news, there are doubts on the US approach to Pakistan.
The US seeks closer cooperation with India at the strategic level to counter China, as also play a greater role in stabilizing and developing Afghanistan. Regular visits by the Afghan president to India only indicate their dependence on India. On the other hand, Pakistan, the main architect behind US failures, seeks the opposite. It has been crying hoarse about reducing India’s influence in Afghanistan, while it contributes nothing, other than supporting groups bleeding Afghanistan daily.
The US policy towards Pak under Trump has witnessed a reversal from previous administrations. Earlier policy was the carrot and stick, which included providing Pak military hardware and finances to obtain support in curbing anti-Afghan terror groups on its soil. The US did nothing even when Osama was traced and eliminated on their soil. The US only got more casualties and empty promises in return. It remains dependent on the Karachi port for its forces, hence needs to handle Pak with caution.
The present US South Asian strategy, was developed by serving and retired generals, with vast experience in Afghanistan and in handling the duplicity of Pak. They recommended a reverse of the carrot and stick policy, where the stick came first, which immediately began producing results. In the initial phase of the strategy, Pak was lambasted by Trump and his chief advisors, making their security establishment nervous enough to reconsider its approach.
The very mention of an increased role for India in Afghanistan, made the Pak army chief rush to Kabul offering all forms of assistance, including joint operations, desperately seeking Kabul’s support against enhanced Indian role. Their prime, defence and foreign ministers cried foul on increasing Indian footprints in Afghanistan in every possible forum. Subsequently, when their foreign minister admitted that terror groups do exist within the country and Pak needs time to dismantle them, did the stick slowly begin receding, as Pak had accepted and indicated a willingness to act, contrary to its earlier denials.
The recent action of the Pak army in rescuing a US-Canadian family kidnapped five years ago indicated a mild change in their policy. The announcement of the success of the operation by Pak was countered by the CIA, when it stated that the captives had remained in Pak all through and close to the HQs of the Haqqani network. This only proved that Pak could act, but only when pressurized.
The fact that none of their captors were arrested or killed raised doubts of whether it was a military operation or a sell-out to befool the US. There have also been comments in the media, that Pak acted, because a message was conveyed that a possible Bin Laden nature of surgical operation may be undertaken. This would have been a massive degrading blow to their army.
Post the incident, US drone strikes have increased along the Pak-Afghan border, targeting militant groups operating in the region. A number of these strikes have occurred on Pak soil, which their prime minister brushed away, stating it was along the un-delineated border. Pak has refrained from adversely commenting on the strikes, solely because it fears the stick coming into play again. The US continues to warn Pakistan for its lack of resolve in curbing these groups especially as Taliban attacks on Afghan security forces are suddenly on the rise. This would have been the message Tillerson would have conveyed to Pak. In the same voice it openly calls India a major strategic partner. It is in this complicated atmosphere that Tillerson arrives in Delhi.
The visit of Tillerson has deliberately been coincided with a visit by the Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani. This would convey a message of a joint strategic approach, which could then be conveyed to Pak by the US, at an appropriate time. The US wants support from India in many fields, hence it should be willing to include Indian considerations while handling Pak. The US is keen for Indo-Pak talks to resume, but at the same time aware of the Indian stand, ‘terror and talks cannot go hand in hand’.
Further, both nations realize the level of fear within the Pak establishment of an increased Indian footprint in Afghanistan. India is already training the Afghan army, as also providing it military hardware and developmental assistance. It recently signed an agreement to also commence training the Afghan police, hence now possesses influence in every field of the Afghan security forces.
India’s agreement to the US desires of enhancing its assistance to Afghanistan, should be conditional to US pressure on Pak to do more in curtailing anti-India terror groups operating from its soil. Pak is a master in duplicity, making promises but refusing to adhere to them. India possesses first-hand knowledge of Pak’s duplicity, having witnessed regular turnarounds on the talks issue and hence can correctly convey the message.
The message to Pak through the US should be clear. India is investing in Afghanistan, hence wants a say in the political affairs of the nation. If Pak desires that India not be involved in the political future of Afghanistan, but solely in developmental, then it must curb its anti-India activities, including terror groups. Failure to do so, would result in enhanced Indian footprints and influence in Afghanistan, enhancing threat to Pak. With Ashraf Ghani being in Delhi at the same time, this message would carry immense weight and create more internal worry in Pak. Tillerson’s visit is an opportunity which India should exploit for cornering Pak.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army