The Pulwama attack has many unanswered questions (English Version) Amar Ujala 16 Feb 19
https://www.amarujala.com/columns/opinion/no-need-to-hurry?src=top-lead
The Pulwama attack has many unanswered questions (English Version) Amar Ujala 16 Feb 19
The suicide attack on a bus carrying CRPF jawans in Pulwama district near Srinagar on Valentine’s day has been amongst the single most-deadliest attack in recent times. The figure of 44 dead and over two dozen injured is far higher than the Uri attack of 2016. It occurred when a CRPF convoy was moving to the valley from Jammu. While the incident is sad, it does open multiple aspects which demand an analysis.
The first aspect is that such a large convoy can never go unnoticed. News of its impending move and progress would have spread. This would have given the terrorist groups time to prepare the suicide vehicle and select the attacker, whose video was released soon after the attack, indicating that it was well planned.
After all, a vehicle loaded with explosives cannot be prepared in a short time. Hence, there is a possibility of a leak of information providing details of the impending move which must be explored. The ability of terrorists to obtain such vast amounts of explosives must also be investigated. It could either have come through the LoC route in the cross-border trade or obtained from organizations which deal with it. In either case, it needs investigation and loopholes plugged.
The second question is that it occurred despite all security arrangements being in place. Such convoys only proceed once Road Opening is done and under their own security. Vehicles entering the road are checked, yet this vehicle loaded with explosives managed to sneak in. This would require deliberation and analysis. It also indicates that the terrorists had surveyed the area and knew of loopholes in the system, which were exploited. The firing on the vehicle alongside the strike shows that the terrorists had conducted their reconnaissance well in time, which substantiates the leak of move details.
The next question is the suicide attack itself. Suicide attacks have occurred on security forces camps, where the attackers have been mostly Pak nationals. A Kashmiri has rarely been involved. This attack could signal a change in the pattern of militancy in the valley and hence security forces may need to alter their existing strategy. There are reports that the terrorist was trained in Afghanistan, which is a worrying aspect.
The fourth issue is the timing of the attack. With elections drawing close, the attack could further tarnish the image of the BJP, which had till recently been claiming the success of its surgical strike on Pak and the deterrence it had on them. It would give the opposition more ammunition to target the BJP, forcing it to consider multiple options to regain the upper hand.
If political parties indicate maturity, then this incident should not become a tool in electioneering. However, knowing the Indian political system, no opposition party would immediately challenge the government, as it would tantamount to ignoring Indian sentiment. Yet they would in some time. Their claim would be the failure of the government’s Kashmir and Pakistan policy.
Pak based JEM has taken responsibility for the strike. The organization would have acted on the directions of their army, with ulterior aims, mainly to impact the current political environment and boost the sagging image of local militants. Since directions have flowed from their army chief, the Pak army would be alert expecting an Indian counterstroke.
As the Prime Minister had stated in parliament in his final speech that India is respected internationally because of a single party majority in the government, which gave the nation the strength to act decisively. Hence, Pak would desire a government which is a weak coalition, rather than it being a strong single party led. It could give it greater leeway and an opportunity to involve India in talks under its own conditions. It cannot be allowed to succeed.
The next aspect is the attitude of the separatists in the valley. After all, security forces lives have been lost and this is tragic to the nation. Even in this moment of grief, refusing to criticise the terrorists, maintain silence and accuse security forces of a highhanded approach is tantamount to being anti-national.
The targeting of a CRPF convoy has national implications. Since the recruitment for the CRPF is nationwide, there would be a pall of grief across the nation, since those who lost their lives or are injured would be from almost all states in the country. This would also have political implications.
There is no denying the fact that most terror groups have been impacted by the strong anti-terrorist actions of security forces. However, they are far from being eliminated. This terrorist strike is an indicator of their ability to strike at a place of their own choosing. Such an attack would boost their morale and possibly even enhance recruitment.
The terrorists would be hoping that security forces would be tough and ruthless with the local population, suspecting them of not sharing information in time. Such an action would be detrimental in the long term hence security forces need to ensure that there is no change in their approach. They must continue to operate as before, striking militants and removing their leadership.
Across the nation, there would be an increased demand for revenge. The government is also aware that it must act, especially as the timing of the attack is close to the elections. The hype created by the last surgical strike indicates that the nation would expect a strong response.
While diplomatic actions for cornering Pak for its support to terror groups must continue, the government must carefully consider its options and act. It must not respond in a hurry. A mature government acts after weighing all options, at a time and place of its own choosing, when it is prepared and certain of success. It never acts under pressure and for short term results. The intention must be to convey a message, create a deterrence and build national confidence. It should also be a message that such actions cannot impact India.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army