FATF can ensure peace in South Asia CENJOWS 15 May 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=168
FATF can ensure peace in South Asia CENJOWS 15 May 19
Pakistan comes up for partial review in the face to face meeting between the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and Asia Pacific Group (APG) in Beijing from 15 to 17th May and the FATFs penultimate review during its plenary from 16th to 21st Jun in Florida. It is already in the FATF ‘Grey List.’ If it fails the review, it may continue in the same list or be downgraded to the ‘Black List’. It has remained under scrutiny of the FATF watchdog for over a year.
From the time it has been under scrutiny there have been actions undertaken within the country to show some semblance of acting against money laundering, terrorist financing and terrorist groups. It had failed to act despite intense international pressure over the years. As their foreign minister, SM Qureshi, had stated, ‘Pakistan will lose USD 10 Billion annually if it remains in the Grey List.’ He added that if placed on the ‘Black-List’ the loss will be colossal and could result in intense internal turmoil.
Of the over 262 individuals and organizations identified by the UN 1267 Sanctions Committee as global terrorists or terrorist organizations, over 100 have Pak links, yet Pak never acted against them. Hafiz Saeed entered the list in 2008 and continued with his activities unhindered. It was only the threat of the ‘Black-List’ which forced Pak to issue guidelines for actions against such proscribed individuals on 12th Apr this year, over a decade after he was identified as a global terrorist.
Masood Azar was a free man, protected by the deep state, despite being responsible for major terror strikes in India. Comments by their top political leadership, including their foreign minister, indicated that he was close to the deep state and in touch with the national leadership. No action was taken when he countered the comments of the Pak foreign minister, proving him to be a liar, only because of the protection provided by the deep state. His seminaries, where he motivated and trained his terrorists were protected by the army.
It was only after the threat of FATF actions did the government act and take over his 56 seminaries. Pak also announced the taking over of 182 Madrassas, responsible for radicalization, across the country and revamping the nature of education in them. Last weekend Pak announced the banning of 11 groups linked to Masood Azar led JuD and JeM. While the announcement has been done, action is yet to be undertaken.
Pakistan acted to restrict Masood Azar’s movements and placed him under protective military custody when it was evident that the FATF is monitoring. Once he was declared a global terrorist, fearful of the FATF, Pak announced it would immediately implement directions of the sanctions committee.
While Pakistan has terrorists trained and ready to launch, it is acting with caution, knowing that one wrong move, especially when the review is due, could add to its problems and force it to land in the Black List. Hence, as per Indian army reports, there has been no attempts at infiltration post the Balakote strike. This fear within Pak is further compounded as India is part of the APG monitoring committee and closely observing actions being undertaken by them.
The APG had recently demanded that Pak ensure restriction on sale of gold and jewellery to banned outfits and terrorist organizations. The directions included collecting data of all gold markets and restricting sale and purchase of gold by cash. It also wanted Pak to collect data of all trusts operating in the country as also of their bank accounts upto district level.
The IMF too, whom Pak has been approaching for bailout due to its collapsing economy, has laid down stringent economic actions. While talks between the IMF delegation and Pak have concluded and Pak claims that a staff-level agreement has been reached, it still needs to be approved by the IMF board of directors. This may only happen once the FATF review has been concluded. If it is placed on the ‘Black-List’ the same may be delayed further. This has added to worries within the Pak government forcing it to act and display that it is genuine in its desire to curb terrorist activities from its soil.
Pak has realized that apart from China, no major international power is even willing to lend it a soft ear. When Masood Azar was to be nominated as a global terrorist, all international powers were in constant contact with India. Pakistan was neither consulted nor taken into confidence. Grants given to them by Saudi Arabia, UAE and China are just delaying the inevitable. Unless the IMF comes to their aid, the national economy can collapse.
Destabilization in South Asia is only because of the approach of Pak supporting terror groups, whether it be the Taliban, anti-India or anti-Iran groups. Intense US pressure, including cutting off all aid failed to make any headway in Pak’s policies. While it claims to have facilitated Taliban-US talks and possesses some influence over the Taliban, it has failed to ensure that a ceasefire is declared, and peace talks proceed. It claims to support talks but has done little for its success.
The actions which Pak has commenced taking is because it knows the impact of being placed on the ‘Black-List’ and be termed as a ‘non-cooperative country.’ If the FATF blacklists Pakistan, it may lead to downgrading of the country by multilateral lenders like IMF, World Bank, ADB, EU and a reduction in risk rating by Moodys, S&P and Fitch. It is already feeling the heat being on the Grey list.
The FATF has in a short time been able to do what the international community had failed to implement over the years. South Asia had remained in turmoil solely because of one nation, Pakistan. The US fought a losing battle in Afghanistan only because of Pakistan, which provided support, shelter and funding to the Taliban. India faced terrorism in J and K as also terrorist strikes in the interior because of Pak.
This opportunity should not be missed by the international community. There should be no hurry to remove Pak from the Grey List. In case there is the slightest doubt, it should be placed in the Black List, forcing it to act strongly against terror groups. Since the FATF works on consensus, India should employ its diplomatic power to bring about a permanent change in the approach of Pak.
Acting on request by China and on temporary actions indicated by Pak should not be accepted. It may have passed guidelines to implement directions of the FATF/APG and 1267 Sanctions Committee, however implementation needs verification. Similarly announcing banning of groups is easy, implementing and closing them down, far more difficult. The world should know that it now has Pak by the scruff of its neck, and it should gain the maximum before letting it loose. Such an opportunity may not come again in the foreseeable future.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army